Mafiascum.net

Sausasaurus's claim does not make him guaranteed town here.

In fact, nobodys claim makes them guranteed town here.

In post 1190, alimdia wrote:A goon would claim VT too though?

It's the timing of the claim. He claimed VT before I said I was vanilla cop. In fact, he claimed first. So he may be a goon, but I'm leaning actual VT due to timing.

Why does the timing of the claim matter? They also claimed pretty early in the claim, so both towndorable and scumdorable would claim VT.
I think its null. What else would a mafia goon claim other than VT?

In post 1202, alimdia wrote:Why does the timing of the claim matter? They also claimed pretty early in the claim, so both towndorable and scumdorable would claim VT.
I think its null. What else would a mafia goon claim other than VT?

I mean they claimed 1st. So they couldn't have done any of the kills or they would have immediately been CC'd. I mean what you're saying makes sense too I guess.

Alimdia, I'm pretty sure you're town. You are basically throwing every slot under suspicion now, but I think that comes from paranoia. I wanna double check what you thought wrt me saying to shoot invisibility and where you were voting.

But at this point, I dont know how my alignment isnt obvious. We're in MYLO yesterday, we mislynched. Scum either knows that Sausa's claim is a lie or that he can only target VTs. So scum can literally kill Kanrage for the win. Why the fuck would I bus my teammate in that scenario. I can literally say any town player that's potentially mislynch fodder, and we win. Why would I go after my partner and have to play another game? I mean, I get that you're paranoid, but this is a bit much.

Also, for all practical purposes, I'm pretty much a VT at this point. So I'll probably end up surviving to the last day.

So most likely there's 2 scum left and we have to lynch scum twice in a row or lose. I will code the VCs and see if that tells me anything.

I mean the only really sus people were Invis and LUV yesterday. It was kinda obvious Karnage was shooting Invis if LUV flipped town.

Who else was 'mislynch fodder'?

What do you think of my analysis otherwise?

672
Here's the Dolly lynch:

So on the first lynch, which was on town, no flipped scum on that wagon as of yet, but three unflipped players. Theres two counter wagons, both small, one with one scum on it.

1026
This is where Wake got lynched.


Here we have another town lynch, 1 scum on in slot 3. 2 unclipped players on. Alimdia on LUV. And Jake and Adorable not voting.

Now, yesterday 1183

Not Voting: Adorable

So Jake still not on a wagon, this is the first lynch Alimdia's been in on, second one for Adorable as well. And me and SausaurusRex in on this town mislynch as well. I know someone else had voted Invisibility so I wanna check some other stuff, including the other game where i had played with Jake, but I'm thinking i wanna flip Jake today.

61 the invis flips makes you look better here given that you accused him of opportunistically hopping on Jake, not sure why your vote didnt move though.

Holy shit, I see why I look bad on an invisibility flip, why was Kcda weirdly defending him at 63?

Although why'd you back off at 94? You were pressuring him, and I dont know why you kinda ease off there. Ok, but 97 helps. I dont think scum engineer a svs interaction in the first 4 pages where one accuses the other of misrepping. That doesnt happen much, right?

Was 124 a slip or was that meant to fuck with us when Invis flipped and throw off associationals? Shit if Jake is town, then I dont know wtf is happening. My early thought was Adorable and Jake. But maybe they are just disengaged town. Damnit I'm spiraling.

128, need to check if Alimdia is the first to call out the scumslip. If so, definite townpoints. Oh shit, he was. Now, the only thing that gives me pause is that if I'm scum, I want invisibility to flip before anyone else, because that takes any docs out of play. But do you strategically bus on D1? That i dont think so.

Man, the thing that stopped the Jake/Invis wagon was conf!townies. I thought that might lead me somewhere.

Although Alim voting invis when the pressure is going to Dolly gives him town points.

174 is kinda awkward positioning from Sausa. Voting Dolly while positioning for Invisibility on D2. Do you position to bus your partner after mislynching town as scum?

202 also looking good for Alim. While pressure is building on Dolly he continues to try and redirect to either Jake or Invis away from Dolly.

254 this looks good for Arkias/Adorable. Pressure is building up on Dolly and they go to Invis. Not sure that that's a scum tactic.

Alim defending Arkias at 258 from Joey which runs counter to what hes doing wrt Invis.

273 - Sausa shading Jake while the pressure is still on him. Probably not a team there.

I'm literally spitballing at this point, but one of my games just finished so I can effort this a bit more.

283 - invisibility kinda defending Jake a bit.

At the 310 vote count it looms like this

Invisibility(s): Dolly (t), Alimdia
Jake: Invisibility (s), Kcdaspot (now me)
Dolly Parton(t): Sausasaurusrex
Ethos(t): Arkias (now Adorable)
Arkias (now adorable): Joey (t)
Kcdaspot (now Billy Pilgrim): rb(t)

Not voting: Jake the Wolfie and some dead conf!towns

Correction from the previous VC at post 327:

Jake the Wolfie had Invisibility(s), Kcdaspot(now me), and Eth0s(t) voting him.

Though this is interesting. After having called Invis v Jake svs, Alim is asking whether the Jake wagon is too easy. I think Alim can only be scum if both Invis and Jake are scum. If Jake flips scum I may have to re-evaluate. Because otherwise hes trying to run up his partner for distance when the wagon on town is growing stronger and hes questioning it.

Looking back on everyone's interaction with Invisibility, it seems like everyone has been suspecting him. On day 3 Luv said he was suspicious of Invisibility and alimdia's claim. alimdia and Billy were also suspicious of Invisibility's claim and I'm wondering why did you guys vote Luv instead of Invisibility when you guys were suspicious of his Doctor Enabler claim?

Hmm... but then at 341 votes Jake in response to Dolly prompting him and kinda backs off the invisibility scumread and away from the svs characterization. Simultaneously is asking my slot whether the wagon (presumably on Jake) is too easy.

In post 1035, Invisibility wrote:Adorable or Jake I guess. my tr of Jake was more or less dependent on my sr of your slot and I don’t sr your slot anymore. with that it makes jake the second weakest link. I’m gonna VOTE: adorable though.
I think we shouldn’t have more than one person vote a slot unless we’re, like, sure of it.

This was his first post after clarifying that it was safe to vote. What do we make of that? That could legit be the scumteam.

The wagon analysis actually looks really bad for Billy and Sausaurus.
However, I doubt both of you would be blantant on all 3 town wagons as scum.
I do believe one of you is scum though via wagon analysis.

Jake has been off on all 3 wagons, I don't know what to make of it.

In post 1208, Billy Pilgrim wrote:61 the invis flips makes you look better here given that you accused him of opportunistically hopping on Jake, not sure why your vote didnt move though.

Holy shit, I see why I look bad on an invisibility flip, why was Kcda weirdly defending him at 63?

Although why'd you back off at 94? You were pressuring him, and I dont know why you kinda ease off there. Ok, but 97 helps. I dont think scum engineer a svs interaction in the first 4 pages where one accuses the other of misrepping. That doesnt happen much, right?

Was 124 a slip or was that meant to fuck with us when Invis flipped and throw off associationals? Shit if Jake is town, then I dont know wtf is happening. My early thought was Adorable and Jake. But maybe they are just disengaged town. Damnit I'm spiraling.

128, need to check if Alimdia is the first to call out the scumslip. If so, definite townpoints. Oh shit, he was. Now, the only thing that gives me pause is that if I'm scum, I want invisibility to flip before anyone else, because that takes any docs out of play. But do you strategically bus on D1? That i dont think so.

Man, the thing that stopped the Jake/Invis wagon was conf!townies. I thought that might lead me somewhere.

Although Alim voting invis when the pressure is going to Dolly gives him town points.

174 is kinda awkward positioning from Sausa. Voting Dolly while positioning for Invisibility on D2. Do you position to bus your partner after mislynching town as scum?

202 also looking good for Alim. While pressure is building on Dolly he continues to try and redirect to either Jake or Invis away from Dolly.

254 this looks good for Arkias/Adorable. Pressure is building up on Dolly and they go to Invis. Not sure that that's a scum tactic.

Alim defending Arkias at 258 from Joey which runs counter to what hes doing wrt Invis.

273 - Sausa shading Jake while the pressure is still on him. Probably not a team there.

I'm literally spitballing at this point, but one of my games just finished so I can effort this a bit more.

Honestly kinda hard to read this since it feels like a stream of consciousness


Regarding your point on Sausa... you just reminded me.. I pointed this shit out later when after the Dolly flip..

In post 910, alimdia wrote:

In post 174, SausasaurusRex wrote:

In post 167, Dolly Parton wrote:Would have been cooler if you had rode this out with me though.

This heavily implies Dolly was lying. Why would Wake need to ride it out if she’d been telling the truth?

VOTE: Dolly Parton

I don’t like Invis’s slip either though. Perhaps a D2 lynch if the Dolly one doesn’t work.

Btw I just remembered why I revoked my TR on Sausaurus .

If we look through his ISO he was very focused on invis, then voted Dolly, then day 2 starts and he doens't mention invis at all.

If invis is town, this man is 100% scum. If invis is scum, I'm not so sure...

Not sure what your 258 means.

In post 1211, Billy Pilgrim wrote:Though this is interesting. After having called Invis v Jake svs, Alim is asking whether the Jake wagon is too easy. I think Alim can only be scum if both Invis and Jake are scum. If Jake flips scum I may have to re-evaluate. Because otherwise hes trying to run up his partner for distance when the wagon on town is growing stronger and hes questioning it.

@Billy the SvS thing was explained here via Joey correcting me:

In post 306, alimdia wrote:

In post 285, Kcdaspot wrote:I still got a read on alim

You also didn't explain your read when Invis asked you btw

In post 293, Joey_ wrote:

In post 257, alimdia wrote:

In post 226, Joey_ wrote:

In post 202, alimdia wrote:I'm inclined to think that invis vs jake is actually SvS. That's pretty rare I must say, but it seems like some light bussing gone wrong.

thats a disgusting read and goes against your whole slip thought process and basically whatever you are doing rn still vote there

I have 0 idea what you just said. Can you reword

i have been posting after work so I am tired and it's harder for me to articulate my ideas

The premise of your slip is that inv knew before hand that jake was town, so its a TMI SvsT slip. You can't push the slip wagon while calling both mafia, that was my point

Ah I see what you're saying. That's totally my bad. I guess at that point I caught the slip, got excited that both people in the 'war' were kinda scummy, so I thought that was 2 scum there.

I'll reread more when I get back home (at lunch work atm)

Also.. @Billy you kinda haven't responded to my earlier analysis

Just from rereading players posts this is what I remembered that caught my eye.

Jake - Gets in a 1 on 1 with Invisibility, self votes himself and there was a wagon on him, when the wagon died Invisibility and Jake become cool with each other and Jake votes Kcd, when the Dolly wagon built up Jake votes Dolly and calls her scum and a few posts later he unvotes Dolly. On day 2 Jake didn't say much and he said he wasn't feeling well and went v/la. I haven't seen much of him after day 1.

alimdia - Votes Invisibility calling it a slip, later he votes Jake and quoted his own post asking Kcd if he thinks the wagon is too easy and he left his vote there at the end of day 1. On day 3 Luv said he was suspicious of Invisibility and alimdia's claim, alimdia says he thinks Luv and Invisibility are scum and he votes Luv instead of Invisibility. He said he watched Joey on N1 and said no one visited him. Normally an invest with a 1 shot would save their action and use it on a later night and even Karnage questioned alimdia and asked why use the 1 shot on N1 and not on N2.

Billy - His predecessor was making fluff and Billy's vote on Dolly was due to her rvs vote on Saus and then she unvoted him. Billy's vote on Dolly is not a good vote reason since rvs joke votes should never be taken seriously. On day 3 when we mass claimed Billy says he was suspicious of Invisibility's claim but instead he votes LUV. Karnage asked Billy who should he shoot and he said, "Invisibility? I don't know" But if Billy is scum, why did he say Invisibility and not someone else?

Saus - Normally there is always some sort of protect role and he claimed Town Simple Doctor and I think this is town and I didn't bother on rereading their posts.

In post 1217, alimdia wrote:Not sure what your 258 means.

It means I am damn near sure you're town. I dont think you defend a guy who flips town while attacking a guy that flips scum for something that I think I thought was pretty close to them doing the same thing.

Honestly, the two of us need to find one town. I dont think its Jake. I'm between Sausarex and Adorable at the moment.

In post 1218, alimdia wrote:

In post 1211, Billy Pilgrim wrote:Though this is interesting. After having called Invis v Jake svs, Alim is asking whether the Jake wagon is too easy. I think Alim can only be scum if both Invis and Jake are scum. If Jake flips scum I may have to re-evaluate. Because otherwise hes trying to run up his partner for distance when the wagon on town is growing stronger and hes questioning it.

@Billy the SvS thing was explained here via Joey correcting me:

In post 306, alimdia wrote:

In post 285, Kcdaspot wrote:I still got a read on alim

You also didn't explain your read when Invis asked you btw

In post 293, Joey_ wrote:

In post 257, alimdia wrote:

In post 226, Joey_ wrote:

In post 202, alimdia wrote:I'm inclined to think that invis vs jake is actually SvS. That's pretty rare I must say, but it seems like some light bussing gone wrong.

thats a disgusting read and goes against your whole slip thought process and basically whatever you are doing rn still vote there

I have 0 idea what you just said. Can you reword

i have been posting after work so I am tired and it's harder for me to articulate my ideas

The premise of your slip is that inv knew before hand that jake was town, so its a TMI SvsT slip. You can't push the slip wagon while calling both mafia, that was my point

Ah I see what you're saying. That's totally my bad. I guess at that point I caught the slip, got excited that both people in the 'war' were kinda scummy, so I thought that was 2 scum there.

I'll reread more when I get back home (at lunch work atm)

Also.. @Billy you kinda haven't responded to my earlier analysis

I went digging back through the early game on my own. I think theres way too much positive stuff in your iso to think you're scum. If you are, well played, but at this point with a town that stopped playing, I'm fine losing to you, because then my teammates let you deepwolf. I wanna figure out between Adorable and Sausa who the last scum is, because I'm almost positive Jake is at least one of them. And if anyone has objections, please speak up because I think imma throw a vote down.

I read Jake's other games and I dont know if it helped much. Theres a world where both Alim and Jake are both town so maybe I won't vote Jake. Jake, you gonna play or are you just giving up?

In post 1212, Adorable wrote:Looking back on everyone's interaction with Invisibility, it seems like everyone has been suspecting him. On day 3 Luv said he was suspicious of Invisibility and alimdia's claim. alimdia and Billy were also suspicious of Invisibility's claim and I'm wondering why did you guys vote Luv instead of Invisibility when you guys were suspicious of his Doctor Enabler claim?

I also suspected LUV, and due to the impending deadline, I felt it was better to lynch LUV over Invisibility as opposed to no lynch.

So scum doc enabler as an anti swing mechanic makes sense. It's why I suspected Invis. You wouldn't have a scum doc and a scum doc enabler right? Because then it's not an anti swing mechanic. And only one doc claimed. So that means that if theres a scum doc, you wouldnt wanna get that person killed. But if theres a scum doc and a town doc, then the doc enabler is kinda overall balanced and not a huge swing either way. . .

Alim, why would the claimed doc be more likely to be scum in a setup where theres a doc enabler? Wouldnt there have to be a town doc in a setup with a scum doc and scum doc enabler?

BP