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Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:39 am
by GuiltyLion
also by "directly above yours" I really mean "several posts above in the middle of a block of other posts" :D

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:40 am
by Hopkirk
Hood specific
18 in hood at 7.04 on May 11 – GL thinks Bingle is most scummy in the trio
19/21 in hood – claiming not to be aware of mafia daytalk. TRs Luke a lot here
25 – GL mentions that they think bussing is generally bad
It’s kind of weird that GL wasn’t posting during the night phase/last night phase in the hood? I kind of feel like you’d have been doing that if you had any concern about dying? Especially last night I’d have thought you’d probably take the opportunity to lay out your points on Vanders in case you died since I don’t think either me or Luke had 100% engaged with all of them.
Note – need to read what GL says later about Bingle voting as a deflection from Vanders because I didn’t fully get that on a reread despite thinking it was true earlier in the game

Ignoring the hood from Vanders probably NAI

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:41 am
by GuiltyLion
I didn't post in the hood during the final night phase because I thought that might give scum too much info or WIFOM to leverage about who to NK. If I had died I would hope that y'all would read through my ISO again where I pushed against Vanders multiple times and stated a bunch of my points already, I didn't have a lot that I felt was unsaid

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:44 am
by GuiltyLion
In post 1201, Hopkirk wrote:Ignoring the hood from Vanders probably NAI
I also just hate this, I really do, I don't see how anyone can buy that.

I asked Vanders why he wasn't posting in the hood after the first night phase and he said he wasn't even
reading
there.

do you really think it's good town play to just completely ignore a neighborhood? I can kinda understand an argument for not posting in there when you're exclusively posting in the main thread, but not even READING it? That's discarding information that might help you find scum for no gain whatsoever. I think it's more likely that ignoring the hood is just a convenient excuse to avoid being forced to provide more content or engaging with players over night.

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:56 am
by Hopkirk
i should note i only very quickly skimmed your last posts and didn't read them yet. had a look now at the one you mentioned
In post 1199, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1198, Hopkirk wrote:between 112-254 do you know what Bingle switched on you based on GL? all i can see is that Norway TR you for reasons then Bingle flipped to TRing you for the rest of the game with no clear indication (i don't remember you asking Bingle about his progression on you, but i'll verify that in the iso i'm about to do of you next)
It was the response to his questioning about my townslip
In post 252, NorwegianboyEE wrote:You haven’t really townhunted in the big pool Bingle.
In post 253, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Do you have any reads yet or what?
In post 254, Bingle wrote:Disagree. We've talked about Dunn, I'm waiting for a response from Hopkirk, and
I agree with your logic on GL given his response
. Luke and Scamp both strike me as the kind where their alignment will be more obvious if I let them do their thing and I can afford to be a passive observer on marci at the moment.

Sometimes, it's better to know how to let the thread breathe to get reads.
You should read my post directly above yours where I also walk through this interaction

also, on this:
In post 1197, Hopkirk wrote: -The scum GL world is one where GL hangs around waiting to see votes without majorly taking a stance beforehand which i don't really see anything on the d1 voting against this?
again, if I were scum with Bingle I basically took the worst possible course of action for myself, did not bus him strongly to buy myself towncred and distance our slots, nor did I push for a counter wagon to prevent his elimination from going through. I was on the sideline without pushing any kind of agenda at all - that's passive play and something I'd like to think I would have avoided as scum.

I think you make some good points about how scum!Vander switching from Bingle to Hopkirk would look tremendously bad after you flip green and Bingle flips red.
am i misunderstanding one of the following two things
-you were arguing that Bingle didn't use the townslip as a reason to TR you?
-bingle TR you then didn't ever reconsider it based on that townslip

the townslip i find more meaningful would be the daytalk one. i'm thinking about whether those two slips are plausible to happen accidentally. eg you knowing there was daytalk then taking advantage of Dunn asking to say you didn't

in regard to you not bussing...
why is not bussing a bad move there for scum!GL? there were 3 votes on me and 3 on Bingle before Marci's vote. it's very plausible that i do get voted off there if one more vote lands on me (you having the chance to hammer there as scum is great for your team) and most of the game was TRing you pretty strongly so not bussing doesn't seem like a bad play UNLESS Bingle is guaranteed to get voted off there because he was so scummy - the bit i don't understand here is if he was scummy enough that scum!you would have had to bus for scumcred (taking into account you mentioning you'd prefer to avoid bussing in the hood earlier) then why were you still really on the fence about him prior to that? it felt like you were strongly considering the vote on me that scum!GL would definitely do, and i'm not aware you SR Bingle substantially there

your scum agenda there would have been to
- get the hopkirk wagon to go through (without hard pushing it)
- not push the Bingle wagon to L1/have plausible deniability while maintaining towncred
bussing bingle would be bad for scum you there because it eliminates the desirable and possible outcome of me being exiled
voting me would be bad for scum you as it ties you strongly to Bingle while not necesarily leading to me being exiled
waiting on the sidelines means that you can wait and see whether the hop wagon is possible then to vote it if it gets another vote (good outcome for scum you) or if it looks like Bingle is getting elimmed/hop isn't, to just sit on the sidelines and avoid getting any sus (when you were TR by everyone so didn't massively need towncred)

why would you have avoided this as scum?
do you think you'd have bussed Bingle as sucm? if so then at what point specifically would you have done so?

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:00 am
by Hopkirk
In post 1203, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1201, Hopkirk wrote:Ignoring the hood from Vanders probably NAI
I also just hate this, I really do, I don't see how anyone can buy that.

I asked Vanders why he wasn't posting in the hood after the first night phase and he said he wasn't even
reading
there.

do you really think it's good town play to just completely ignore a neighborhood? I can kinda understand an argument for not posting in there when you're exclusively posting in the main thread, but not even READING it? That's discarding information that might help you find scum for no gain whatsoever. I think it's more likely that ignoring the hood is just a convenient excuse to avoid being forced to provide more content or engaging with players over night.
i'd agree that not reading it is a questionable decision. when i say it's NAI i'm saying it because this is all he posted in the last game's hood as town
-https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... ct[]=20412

which means it can/has come from town!vanders in the past so NAI

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:13 am
by Hopkirk
262/3 – by this point Vanders is Tring Norway hard and has flipped on Bingle being more sus that NM and doesn’t flip back. There’s basically no pushback from Bingle to Vanders’ reasons for SRing him here. Do you think there’d be more or less scumtheater attempted from vanders/bingle here if they’re committing to a bus? One of the things that makes me view the interactions in a good light for vanders is that the whole set of interactions are understated.

Like scum!vanders means I need to accept that Vanders is willing to break a non-bussing meta that early, commit to it throughout multiple counterwagons that he could reasonably join, and despite that have so few anti-associatives that he got so little towncred out of it that he was considered as an exile multiple times even the next day. He commits to it before he’s a wagon, so there’s not a noticeable threat that he’s going to be exiled over bingle. sure, if he basically never busses then it could be just that he wasn’t good at it… but it feels like there should be more anti-associatives if they were a scum pair trying to hard bus d1. As it is there’s some, but the biggest one is the vanders meta. In terms of interactions (from Bingle’s end) they don’t really have anything that I can point to that makes them look super unaligned and I feel like there should be some of that coming from Bingle if he wanted to play it out as theatre to help Vanders coast to endgame

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:14 am
by GuiltyLion
In post 1205, Hopkirk wrote:
In post 1203, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1201, Hopkirk wrote:Ignoring the hood from Vanders probably NAI
I also just hate this, I really do, I don't see how anyone can buy that.

I asked Vanders why he wasn't posting in the hood after the first night phase and he said he wasn't even
reading
there.

do you really think it's good town play to just completely ignore a neighborhood? I can kinda understand an argument for not posting in there when you're exclusively posting in the main thread, but not even READING it? That's discarding information that might help you find scum for no gain whatsoever. I think it's more likely that ignoring the hood is just a convenient excuse to avoid being forced to provide more content or engaging with players over night.
i'd agree that not reading it is a questionable decision. when i say it's NAI i'm saying it because this is all he posted in the last game's hood as town
-https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... ct[]=20412

which means it can/has come from town!vanders in the past so NAI
the last game ended after D1 and didn't have a night phase

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:16 am
by GuiltyLion
In post 1204, Hopkirk wrote:am i misunderstanding one of the following two things
-you were arguing that Bingle didn't use the townslip as a reason to TR you?
-bingle TR you then didn't ever reconsider it based on that townslip
yeah, my argument is that if he was going to use the townslip to TR me, why did he not open with that to make it look convincing and natural? I find his whole progression with Norway there to be really awkward knowing now that he's scum - he essentially had to be bullied into townreading me, and there's no guarantee that happens. The alternate town!GL explanation is he wanted to keep me open as a viable scumread until he got pushback on that, then he faked a thought process of sorting me, somewhat begrudgingly.

I'm not sure when you would have expected him to reconsider either, given that I didn't really pick up suspicion D1 after that and he was gunning hard for you most of the time afterwards.

Also, when you get caught up, can you look at my post about Bingle-Vander associatives

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:19 am
by GuiltyLion
In post 1206, Hopkirk wrote:Like scum!vanders means I need to accept that Vanders is willing to break a non-bussing meta that early, commit to it throughout multiple counterwagons that he could reasonably join, and despite that have so few anti-associatives that he got so little towncred out of it that he was considered as an exile multiple times even the next day.
Only by me? No one else seemed to think of Vanders as a viable buddy or consider exiling him, I pushed him a lot and got no traction on it. Like, the entire reason we defaulted to Dunn/Marci eliminations is because people thought they were more likely partners than he was.
In post 1206, Hopkirk wrote:As it is there’s some, but the biggest one is the vanders meta. In terms of interactions (from Bingle’s end) they don’t really have anything that I can point to that makes them look super unaligned and I feel like there should be some of that coming from Bingle if he wanted to play it out as theatre to help Vanders coast to endgame
Oh, you mean something like this?
In post 477, Bingle wrote:I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.
Also, please note that Vanders entire case for him being town is his Bingle vote. Every time I have asked him to say why I should see him as town, this is what he has come back to. He doesn't have any other organic participation with other slots, any other truly active attempts to show town thought processes or game-solving to point to outside of his interactions with Bingle to clear himself.

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:22 am
by GuiltyLion
like go back and read Town Vanders games again, even specifically that game where you were scum against him, and compare how more involved and directed he has played previously. Luke summed it up well when he said his presence in this game is very forgettable and passive, despite having a normal post count. There's also been multiple stretches of him disappearing and contributing nothing for days

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:25 am
by GuiltyLion
frankly Hopkirk I'm really disappointed you don't see me as town here in comparison. It's a large part of why I still think you might be scum. It's also bullshit you tried to suggest it could be scummy I didn't post in the hood over the last night phase when Lukewarm didn't either and flipped town

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:28 am
by GuiltyLion
I wanted this LYLO to be me deciding between you two (probably unreasonable, I know :P , but it's what would have been my preferred outcome) and instead it feels like I am primarily defending myself against both of your slots whenever either of you pop in, and neither of you are even really trying to pressure the other.

I also just don't get how you progress on me Hopkirk. It's like you think I'm more suspicious because I gave up on Vander and went along with everyone else's desired eliminations, when you were more strongly scumreading him than me on D2/D3. Like it feels like you pivot to scumreading me whenever I try to either get you to see scum!Vander or to see me as clearly town, and I don't really know what would have been better or more productive for me to do here, like you are just motivated to continue to keep scumreading me despite any tactic I try to help you solve correctly - assuming you are town

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:31 am
by GuiltyLion
I guess if I take a breath for a second and try to be fair, pressuring me is better than whatever Vander is doing today. I just hate being scumread and I hate feeling like all this is just leading up to you voting me anyways when I'm really trying to make the best case for myself and scum!Vander that I can

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:35 am
by Hopkirk
In post 329, Vanderscamp wrote:I got nothing at all out of the bingle/hopkirk exchange
ties in to what i was saying above. if trying to create fake conflict with bingle then not using this at all is weird
In post 495, Vanderscamp wrote:I'm happy to keep spamming the thread about killing into the small pool not being a non-viable option, I like talking about this stuff, but given there were three votes on bingle for a while it didn't seem like the entire thread was actively averse to it.
In post 602, Vanderscamp wrote:
In post 582, Hopkirk wrote:oh yeah, Jingle's alleged convinction is incredibly out of line with what's reasonable. i'm not super confident on Luke because this can easily be Scum!Bingle throwing shade at me/norway with the intent of letting a Luke wagon go through today then plan to shade me/norway from it. Scum!Bingle doesn't need to care about openwolfing when he's not at a realistic risk of us voting him on account of the setup/stated desires to vote in the 6p pool

In post 573, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 477, Bingle wrote:I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.
Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?
we all know we're voting in the 6p pool so this question is pointless
Ok, let's talk then about why we all know we're voting into the 6p pool.

Why is that?
Because the math that bingle and I worked out last game on which pool gives us better odds, assuming random killing, gives voting into the small pool first a pretty non-negligible 10% (as a ratio) winrate increase of killing into the big pool first.
No one is arguing with that math.
To make up for that, there has to be a good reason to vote into the big pool first, but i think a lot of the reasons given both this game and last game are things that don't change whether you actually vote into the big pool first or not.
The only one I remember recently was the thing someone said that was obviously wrong about our odds of winning being smaller with a scum flip in the small pool vs a miskill in the big pool.
Additionally I think there is some real value in guaranteeing a scum flip before losing, which killing into the small pool first guarantees but the big pool first does not.
these posts did influence me away from being locked into voting in the big pool, although is that actually meaningful?
In post 720, Vanderscamp wrote:
In post 715, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 712, Vanderscamp wrote:I'm not reading the neighbourhood chat, sorry.
:lol: shouldn't you be concerned about what scum might be posting in there?
No?...

I didn't read the other chat last game at all either.
i think you responded to this GL? need to check how much it came up
In post 809, Vanderscamp wrote:
In post 758, GuiltyLion wrote:you can't just townread people when it's convenient to townread them but then say you're not looking at the other players by POE. If they're town they're town and you should be willing to put your foot in the ground there.
I would say I'm literally never voting Hopkirk or marcistar this game at this point, doesn't feel like you'd commit to the same?
I'm not saying I'm not looking at other players by PoE, I'm saying it's not impossible that people outside the PoE are scum.

And no, I won't commit to that.
Particularly Marci who I still think does not read as towny in any way, the only reason I am townreading her is the meta of the pool stuff which I do believe is probably accurate.
I'd be very surprised if I vote hopkirk this game but he is not lock clear either.
i kind of hate what GL is saying here. attacking Vanders for not committing to that taken in the context of subsequently voting Marci and having what was it 30% odds of me being scum makes it feel like a gotcha trap and vanders' response is reasonable
In post 1038, Vanderscamp wrote:I think it's extremely likely I die here given who's currently voting me, if I do die I'd kill Marci in final three but I don't feel super confident on that.

Please make everyone who kills me here actually justify their reason for voting me, I still think I should be pretty obviously town given how hard I pushed on bingle D1. I think there's no chance he would have actually died without me both pushing on him as scummy and pushing back on the notion of killing into the small pool being a bad idea.
GL said something earlier about me being in a bad spot when I was pushing bingle but I was pushing both of these things before I got any votes D1. It's imo not good enough to vote me here as a sheep, we have two kills and I don't think I should be one of them.
I know I'm alienating the two people who are not currently voting me by saying this but I don't think my bingle push is worth less than anything Marci or GL have done this game.
In post 1101, Vanderscamp wrote:
In post 1080, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1076, Vanderscamp wrote:It's just pretty annoying for me that I'm out of my scum range but no one else here actually knows that and somehow everyone is happy including me in their two kills.
Sorry if this feels like I'm beating a dead horse, but what would you say is outside of your scum range this game?
My push on bingle.
No one here has played with me much so it's fair for you to discount that, but it's true and I can link quotes from other people that can confirm that what I'm saying is true.

I generally don't like to bus as scum so for me to do it there has to be a pretty good reason, more than just for the cred.
I'm 100% sure that the bingle kill would not have happened without what I did, and I was pushing him before he had a lot of traction.
i liked both of these posts

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:46 am
by Hopkirk
@Vanders - can you give an example of any times where you have bussed early? i'm interested in seeing the stuff you offered where people are commenting about a long history of not bussing as well

i'm not going to be able to get through meta reading from other games tonight, that's likely/is going to be a Friday evening thing

vanders hit L1 i think twice in the last couple of games so i don't agree you were the only one pushing him, you also said just now that i was pushing him more than you during a bunch of that time
In post 1211, GuiltyLion wrote:frankly Hopkirk I'm really disappointed you don't see me as town here in comparison. It's a large part of why I still think you might be scum. It's also bullshit you tried to suggest it could be scummy I didn't post in the hood over the last night phase when Lukewarm didn't either and flipped town
In post 1212, GuiltyLion wrote:I wanted this LYLO to be me deciding between you two (probably unreasonable, I know :P , but it's what would have been my preferred outcome) and instead it feels like I am primarily defending myself against both of your slots whenever either of you pop in, and neither of you are even really trying to pressure the other.

I also just don't get how you progress on me Hopkirk. It's like you think I'm more suspicious because I gave up on Vander and went along with everyone else's desired eliminations, when you were more strongly scumreading him than me on D2/D3. Like it feels like you pivot to scumreading me whenever I try to either get you to see scum!Vander or to see me as clearly town, and I don't really know what would have been better or more productive for me to do here, like you are just motivated to continue to keep scumreading me despite any tactic I try to help you solve correctly - assuming you are town
the two biggest reasons that i started
- Vanders' Bingle vote- this is the reason i unvoted vanders several times
- At the end of yesterday (then today) you were considering me in a way that felt out of line with what i'd expect. it feels so weird you'd be saying you 100% commit to never voting me & spend days pushing vanders then still act like you're deciding both end of day yesterday then for ages today. i'd have expected town!you to vote vanders out of the gate, but you highlighted prenight that you were no longer sure in a way that felt weird

the lack of you saying stuff overnight is different to Luke because he ended yesterday by explicitly saying he didn't want to give reads if he died.

also something i'll clarify with a couple of quotes on the topic of overnight posting in one sec

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:49 am
by Hopkirk
ok before i make those two quotes...
@GL - in terms of your self meta
- is there any reason why you do/would effort less as scum?
- do you agree with norway's assessment of your scumgame being weak/obvious/low effort despite him bringing this up against town you recently as a reason to SR you?
- are there any recent games you've got where you've approached this level of effort as town (since you mentioned you hadn't as scum)
- did you say that you wouldn't/don't meta read as scum? is that a thing you've never done, or just a rare thing?

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:56 am
by Hopkirk
In post 1139, SirCakez wrote:
Votecount 4.0

Not voting (3) - Vanderscamp, Hopkirk, GuiltyLion

(expired on 2021-06-22 12:55:00) remain until day end

With 3 players alive, it takes 2 to reach a majority.
In post 1140, GuiltyLion wrote:Welp it's officially time to tryhard

Hopkirk - in twilight you suggested that you thought I was the most likely scum remaining if not marci. This is a difference from most of D2/D3 where you either mentioned being open to the idea of Vander being scum, or literally voting him (, , ).

What in my twilight posts changed your mind so significantly, or what in Vander's D3 play changed your mind?

I will freely admit that I've been scared of being eliminated in F3 today, and I could see how that would reflect in 'positioning' in my posting, but that's because I'm town and me being eliminated today would be a loss for myself and my team. I have also constantly been worried about being a game losing mis-elimination, reflected even in my post 119 between D2 and D3 in the hood. Quoted for context:
In the hood, Guiltylion wrote:I'm still confident we win if marci/vanders are the other two elims (I still think it's stupid that Vanderscamp claims he doesn't need to read here and that excuses him from offering any content over the night phase or participating in this subset of dialogue with the rest of us), but idk if y'all can trust me enough and frankly I am having a real hard time feeling good about a definitive call either way with those two.
I'm not seeing what made you suddenly think I was more likely scum than Vanders, and I'm worried that may have been an agenda post more than a genuine thought process on your end.
something that i was thinking at the start of the day that i probably should have mentioned when i was saying the issue with you not posting overnight is that the timestamps here spooked me

like it wasn't that you didn't post overnight so much as that you didn't post overnight but did make a reasonably long post (followed by a longer series of posts) within 11 minutes of the nightkill. the questions you asked here are things that could have been asked overnight and especially if you're concerned i'm going to die overnight
+ if you are town then and you don't like being SR then i think it's reasonable to assume town you would have wanted to address me sussing you there more immediately rather than doing it at the start of the next day? Like if you do have an emotional reaction to it then it fells a bit weird you waited a while to push back on it? does my phrasing make sense there?

i also was a little spooked out by the sense of direction i got from your posts immediately at the start of the day which felt like you knew where you were going without thinking it over that much at the start of the day. it always takes me a little while to get into lylo, and there it seemed immediate/no break to reread since i think everything you were writing there felt like it was stuff you were already thinking which i found weird/possibly scum indicative

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:01 pm
by Hopkirk
timestamps don't show up in quotes do they

assuming it took you a couple of minutes to see the start of day post, in the 11 minutes after knowing the kill you wrote ~200 words, found and linked in four quotes (counting the hyperlinks), and asked a question that you could have asked overnight. it feels weird that you waited until start of day to ask it, but were presumably refreshing/getting ready for the start of day.

was the bit addressing me at the start prewritten (with links)?

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:02 pm
by Hopkirk
i saw what you mentioned about the last game not having a night phase, and went to check and vanders did post a little in his 2p hood in the game i just played with him as town. vanders, have you got any backup for your 'not reading hoods'

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:07 pm
by Hopkirk
-townslips (daytalk being more significant than setup because that's not a slip that only town would make)
-norway hard TRing you - why was this?
-selfmeta regarding effort (not efforting enough to meta as scum)
-you don't twilight post as scum (never?)

if we ignore all of the content in this game thread, are these are the reasons that have come up for this as out of your scumrange?

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:12 pm
by Hopkirk
i'm going to have to sleep now. schedule over the rest of the day phase:

tomorrow work/stuff means i'm not free
friday- free and i'll be doing the meta unless something kills my vibes. nothing anticipated that should be draining before then though so should be able to guarantee at least 2-3 hours on the game. mostly to be spent on meta + some more review of GL's iso then verifying stuff people have claimed
saturday i have dnd during the day for ~4-5h hours. evening should be comparatively clear but can't guarantee availability
sunday i'm playing pathfinder 2 with Flopz/some others in the morning & my parents are visiting in the afternoon/evening so i don't anticipate being able to post
monday i'm on leave so if i haven't put a vote down by the end of saturday i'll put some more hours in here then vote by the end of monday at the latest

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:36 pm
by GuiltyLion
In post 1216, Hopkirk wrote:@GL - in terms of your self meta
- is there any reason why you do/would effort less as scum?
- do you agree with norway's assessment of your scumgame being weak/obvious/low effort despite him bringing this up against town you recently as a reason to SR you?
- are there any recent games you've got where you've approached this level of effort as town (since you mentioned you hadn't as scum)
- did you say that you wouldn't/don't meta read as scum? is that a thing you've never done, or just a rare thing?
right so I'll use this post as a jumping off point for what I wanted to post yesterday about my past scum games, then address these questions. Also sorry for being a little salty just now, I let emotions get the better of me. I think part of what is frustrating me about this game is that I just don't have a killer scumread, I think it's Vander but he does have a lot of decent reasons to be town, and I don't think I can satisfyingly prove anything either regarding him being scum or myself being town so it feels to me like this desperate uphill battle every time you start suspecting me where I'm not gonna be able to pull out perfect reasons why I shouldn't be voted as much as I really wish I could find those. I know I can be and have been aggressive/manipulative and that I don't have a stellar anti-associative with Bingle to lean on, and I get reactive when it starts to feel like both slots in the game are going to vote me and I'm gonna have to shoulder the burden for being a game-losing elimination in LYLO.

Here's my most recent scum games in reverse chronological order:
Open 791
Newbie 1995
Open 767
Micro 864

first, look at my post counts in each of these, as a rough proxy for effort:
Open 791 - 109 posts
Newbie 1995 - 49 posts
Open 767 - 115 posts
Micro 864 - 28 posts (flaked out and got limmed D1)

I don't like making this argument because it makes every future scum game harder but I have a hard time keeping up as scum. I get too worried about plausible narratives, about carefully vetting my posts to be hard to scumread, and about making bad faith pushes that I don't believe I can plausibly justify. I tend to wind up skating by with as little presence as the thread will let me get away with. I think I'm actually decent at sounding town with my thoughts/posts, but I have yet to really find an effective source of energy to emulate my activity and the amount of thoughts/presence I can generate as town.

Second, look at my play around my partners in the non-Newbie games (it's a lot easier to get away with not bussing in Newbies). In Open 791 I explicitly fought with Ydrasse through a lot of D1/D2 to try to disassociate our slots. In Micro 864 I also tried to distance with S_S. Open 767 is a weird example because I replaced into it and scum team had already set up a situation where they were the only players who could be eliminated that day - so I can't really honestly use it as a great example of how I play around partners/bussing - but you can take a look at how I posted about the Titus/nEE slots to try to maximize distance from both of them once I replaced into that situation.

If I were scum with Bingle, and we specifically put him in the 3p, it's really unlikely that I would have just done nothing to try to distance or push hard for a counter wagon, especially once he was clearly the preferred scumread of both nEE and N_M. It's just really agenda-less play that doesn't benefit me in any way. I can probably dig up quotes from my mafia PTs were I emphasize that my philosophy is that scum buddies should take strong stances on each other, whether that's in TR or SR direction.

So to answer your questions specifically,

- It's mostly that it's hard and less fun. Mafia is largely fun for me when correctly finding town to build trust with, and picking up the ways in which people's arguments betray disingenuous reasoning. I don't really like the lie and survive elements to it, and to me playing scum feels like months+ of stress and dread every time I check the thread to see if people are onto me.

- I don't know if I'd carte blanche agree my scum game is "weak" and "obvious" :P but I do think it's "low effort" and certainly needs a lot of improvement to meet the standards I try to set for myself as town. And I do think nEE saw me as town early in this game because he's seen enough of my town game now to be able to pick up when I'm genuinely invested and involved versus when I'm faking it.

- I'd say the most recent non-Newbie town game where I felt my effort matched this one was Smuggler's Port. Again, nEE and Hectic both in that game too. Philosopher's may be a good read too, is that where you got the nEE question from?

- My argument was less that "I don't meta as scum". Rather, it should be clear I carefully looked through a lot of Vanders old games and posts, given that I found a specific post that matched a specific post he made in this game, and given that I found a comment about his past mafia history. If you are to believe that I am scum, it means I still dug through all his old ISOs just to try to find fake meta reasons to push a slot I know is town. I think in a vacuum this should be pretty clearly less likely, like, is scum me really gonna be looking through Vanders' town games when I'm not convinced I'll find anything that looks substantially different from his ISO in this game where I would know he is town?

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:53 pm
by GuiltyLion
In post 1217, Hopkirk wrote:like it wasn't that you didn't post overnight so much as that you didn't post overnight but did make a reasonably long post (followed by a longer series of posts) within 11 minutes of the nightkill. the questions you asked here are things that could have been asked overnight and especially if you're concerned i'm going to die overnight
+ if you are town then and you don't like being SR then i think it's reasonable to assume town you would have wanted to address me sussing you there more immediately rather than doing it at the start of the next day? Like if you do have an emotional reaction to it then it fells a bit weird you waited a while to push back on it? does my phrasing make sense there?

i also was a little spooked out by the sense of direction i got from your posts immediately at the start of the day which felt like you knew where you were going without thinking it over that much at the start of the day. it always takes me a little while to get into lylo, and there it seemed immediate/no break to reread since i think everything you were writing there felt like it was stuff you were already thinking which i found weird/possibly scum indicative
I see where you're coming from here, this is fair I can understand this thought process

I don't think it would made sense to address you sussing me over night, because at that point either one of us could still be killed. I only thought that if we were both alive it'd be time to address it - frankly I still thought you'd also be the most likely NK over Lukewarm, and that trying to defend myself to you only for you to be killed would also just only serve to make me look bad. prior to thread lock I also thought there was a serious possibility marci was still gonna flip scum as I said, in which case you sussing me wouldn't have mattered

what I'm not following as much is the "sense of direction" bit - I had been thinking about some things over night but I really don't think I felt confident about who I thought was scum or who I'd vote? What direction are you referring to?

That's why I kinda tried to start discussion with both of you, and explicitly said as much with my first few posts. The rereading/thinking started happening simultaneously over the course of all those posts, you can see my and happened 40-50 minutes after my first post. I'm a fast typer it doesn't take me long to put up a whole stream of consciousness post as town. I may have been too eager to come to the thread and start posting stuff, maybe that was a mistake here. But I think I'd be less likely to do that as scum, not more, let me see if I can dig up some past F3s as scum to highlight whether I played them differently.

Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:56 pm
by GuiltyLion
actually Hop you should also check out City that Never Sleeps, this was another one where I high-efforted as town because Auro could not stop stubbornly scumreading me and I felt it was a serious problem. We got rolled by scum that game but it should be similar to my emotionally invested play as town here