MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[MathBlade]

Yes it’s possible the mod made a bad setup. But it’s not any odds of likelihood probable. The odds are much more likely scum would need a doctor rather than Ircher going “oh let’s add a random doctor” and SirCakez going “I dunno why lulz?”

Yes nom would look better in that scenario but giving scum a useless PR against (assuming all claims are town) two cops, a roleblocker, an A50 (whatever his claim is it changes more often than a sine derivative), and a doctor is very very unlikely.

It’s a could for sake of completeness more than actual probability.

It’s like saying pick a number between 1 and 100 that’s greater than 5. Is it possible that the number is 1-4 and I am wrong? Yes. At that point do I care? Not really because in that 5 percent world I go “wtf was this setup” and move the hell on because I will almost never see it in my mafia career ever again.

[MathBlade]

A general rule with PRs is scum almost always need everything they have and town needs 75% ish? Or more.

If you have to assume scum have a useless PR to make your reads work your reads are bad.

[Xlos]

Xlos, Mathblade are there things equivalent to Tests, Thoerems and Derivatives that I'm missing?

I doubt it. Unless scum got a very detailed flavor->role explanation from Ircher, I think they have info like this

"you know that <player flavor>'s power is <specific power>."

So you think scum were both informed and had a flavor cop?

Hmm, this might not be consistent with my last post, but right now I'm thinking that if there is a pattern with the flavor like A50 was describing, scum has to know about it. They get 3 roles + extra fake claims at the start of the game, so they have a lot of ability to deduce what the correspondence is.

5. While flavor doesn't necessarily correspond to alignment, scum have been offered additional fake claims and the ability to request ones (to match a specific role) during the game.

Since scum can request flavor to match a particular role, if they do spot a pattern then they can confirm it by persistently pinging the mod "give me flavor for this role". I doubt that's part of the setup, so any meaning the flavor does have is known to scum.

And reading this again, I'm realizing that it is really heavily indicating that flavor corresponds to your role. So ignore the post of mine that you quoted, I've changed my opinion on this. I think scum is informed (of what the flavor-role correspondence is) + have a flavor cop. And I don't think it's antitown to talk about it, because scum have the ability to learn it.

[Xlos]

I think most everything is one or two shot. A50's "check" doesn't confirm Wheme as town. DGB is one shot, which leaves it prone to the bussing argument. Toog is unlikely to stop a kill. It follows scum are limited shot as well. We've likely blown our payload.

What’s his check? Sorry must have missed it

See below

@Titus: I

am

using Math theories. nom was "Derivatives" and had a Flavour

Cop

shot. T3 was Second "Derivative" Test and was a Modified Role

cop

. DGB is First "Derivative" Test, and claimed 1-shot Alignment

Cop

. If Flavour is indicative of ROLE (which it is from the Mod's quote I quoted yesterday) then Derivativ(s) = Cop. This should be enough for me to put DGB as an IC already.

Now I am a "Test" and so is Wheme, so I am assuming ... WAIT! Wheme isn't clear by this. He could be "Informed Scum" still. I'll let MATHBLADE decide on it. Wheme is "Root Test".

I'm not even sure what A50's claim is. He seemed to have said something along the lines of being a neighbor with you near the beginning of the game. Do you have any info that would change the probability of A50 being town?

[Xlos]

Personally I would really like to hear a more concrete claim from A50. There's a couple of things that he's claimed so far.

If anything AT ALL I believe I did move the game out of RVS with that post (which was one of my main objectives of posting it). I guess now is the time I should note that I am a Neighbor and that my Neighbor knows this because I had asked them to ask me why those 3 if they were online, but nom did it first anyway. I told my Neighbor specifically that them engaging me on this one should move the game out of RVS, so -at least- I did that regardless of whether my read on MC is correct.

Now that I got this out of the way, I will explain for the very last time: I am informed that "a specific something" is the flavor of "a specific someone". I don't want to say whose flavor I am informed of because that tips that specific someone to say the truth about their flavor and tips everyone else that they can lie about theirs.

My info is in the form of "you know that <player name>'s flavor is <specific flavor>.

I am not looking for a needle in the barn. I know what I'm looking for and know from whom I want it.

I'll give you an offer you can't refuse: Let's do Xlos, and if that doesn't flip red I'll personally see to it that both I and DGB are dead tomorrow.

The second one makes VT impossible, since it inspired a huge flavor push. So if they're town, they are town power, and I don't think there's any reason for town power to claim an additional power, so they're a informed neighbor killing role. Which doesn't really make much sense to me. "informed" and "neighbor" don't go well together, they're both similar types of role. And there are so many powers. Hard to believe that is power role of that caliber is content with exposing themselves D1. It's kind of surprising that scum choose MURDERCAT over A50 considering that first claim.

For those who think A50 isn't scum, what do you think the explanation for these role claims is?

[MathBlade]

Gonna hop on Xlos’s train if he doesn’t mind.

If A50 was informed of his neighbor’s flavor claim why does he start a flavor claim at all?
He could just go “Wheme tell me your flavor or I tunnel you in thread.”

Why is Wheme off the initial list?

It’s almost like A50 is probably lying.

[Toogeloo]

The issue with your setup spec is that you keep closing it has two cops, but really it just has a 1-shot cop (if true), and a role cop (which would make a role like mine almost miller-ish). A role cop scan on nom turning up a joat wouldnt really set off as many red flags as a role cop scan on me would.

So you are over analyzing set up balance, tbph.

[Toogeloo]

Not to mention role cop was even night, which might be strongest on Day 4 at best.

[Toogeloo]

Night 4 / Day 5 at best rather.

[MathBlade]

The issue with your setup spec is that you keep closing it has two cops, but really it just has a 1-shot cop (if true), and a role cop (which would make a role like mine almost miller-ish). A role cop scan on nom turning up a joat wouldnt really set off as many red flags as a role cop scan on me would.

So you are over analyzing set up balance, tbph.

(Assume DGB town)
It has a 1 shot that returns a guilty or an inno.
A vig (and vigs are almost never scum) which is another inno.
Then an infinite shot role cop which unless one player is infinite shot Strongman+Roleblocker+Busdriver multitasker then you have guilties /innos on a majority of scum correctly which makes it

One inno by role when it claims (vig)
One inno by claim DGB
Then if T3 got a check off a 75%+ chance of it being like a cop check.

So yes I said two cops because that’s in essence what they are and a rolecop in this game imho is even more powerful than a standard cop.

You cannot have a game with 0 posts and scum all dead by end or guiltied of N2. That possibility imho would never pass review.

[Titus]

If you have to assume scum have a useless PR to make your reads work your reads are bad.

The trend is actually to include useless/suggestive setups lately. See Mini Normal 2215.

[MathBlade]

Tbh I find it more telling that people don’t want to hunt where it is impossible to be all town and instead are begging out of it.

If we assume that one shot cop hits town you end up with more innos than scum can kill.
Cop, vig, cleared Townie, doctor.

This is 4 “forced” kills before you get to rolecop + A50/Toog.

10 town 3 scum,
Assume vig hits uncleared town n1 to be advantageous to scum
7 v 3, 4 clears left
5 v 3, 3 clears left, Melo

No matter how you slice it or compute it,

A confirmed town would always end up in elo.

[Titus]

If you want A50 dead, case him by play. We're sick of your mechanics conclusion. No one agrees with you. Consider the possibility you are wrong and scumhunt elsewhere and scumhunt everywhere by play or stop drowning the thread.

I want to talk to DGB but I feel like I can't.

[MathBlade]

I have done cases him by play.

I have done cased him by mechanics.

You’re just not listening.

I opened the mafia PT of that game

Image

Titus, Mafia Multitasking Roleblocker
Jake The Wolfie, Mafia Goon
VFP, Mafia Encryptor

None of that is useless to scum.

You’re probably scum with A50 trying to piss me off.

I refuse to believe you are that bad.

[MathBlade]

If you want A50 dead, case him by play. We're sick of your mechanics conclusion. No one agrees with you. Consider the possibility you are wrong and scumhunt elsewhere and scumhunt everywhere by play or stop drowning the thread.

I want to talk to DGB but I feel like I can't.

Then actually do as I fucking asked you.

I asked you to come up with a scum setup that balances the claims in play.

If you cannot do it I am right.

Instead of that you prance around completely asinine theories that nom was somehow a fucking scum friendly neighbor and not fake claiming.

It’s you that’s spouting goddamn uselessness and you should stop and let me get a goddamn word in edgewise without you going “but what about moon theory .02% chance”?

[MathBlade]

I have civ tonight anyway.

If A50 hasn’t claimed like he should have last time he was at e-1 for fucks sake and we don’t elim him the vig better shoot his ass.

There’s almost nothing that could be said to convince me he is town.

[Titus]

None of that is useless to scum.

Right. Town had a useless strongman detector which I abused.

[MathBlade]

None of that is useless to scum.

Right. Town had a useless strongman detector which I abused.

As I said TOWN can have useless powers.
SCUM cannot.

Nom was a one shot flavor cop one shot doctor.

[Titus]

Welp Math is likely stubborn town who refuses to listen, regardless of his accuracy. His push makes me real disinclined to vote A50.

[MathBlade]

Welp Math is likely stubborn town who refuses to listen, regardless of his accuracy. His push makes me real disinclined to vote A50.

If town, you literally misunderstood my argument, cited an improper game, then when I correct you instead of fucking interacting with it you just call me stubborn.

Wow. Just wow.

Damn vig should shoot Titus or A50.

#done

[DrippingGoofball]

I just want to understand why I'm being scum read. Because all I see is that some people don't believe that I blocked nom, and thought I was trying to save them. Is that the gist of it? No damning evidence, no other associatives, just the refusal to believe that I blocked nom.

Blocking nom, a claimed PR, and Galron? Nah something is wrong.

[DrippingGoofball]

I hope that the conclusion of this argument is going to be yeeting Toog.

[Xlos]

If you want A50 dead, case him by play. We're sick of your mechanics conclusion. No one agrees with you. Consider the possibility you are wrong and scumhunt elsewhere and scumhunt everywhere by play or stop drowning the thread.

I want to talk to DGB but I feel like I can't.

Math's argument aside, how do you see A50 as town? I mean, considering 1204, what could his role possibly be for him to be town? I'm trying to look at him from a favorable light, but I lack the imagination to see a world where A50 is town, unless you believe all 3 claims. I'm genuinely curious what situation you're thinking of that's causing you to harbor more doubt about Toog than for A50.

[Toogeloo]

I want a sincere heartfelt apology directed at me from DGB on Day 3 or in the dead thread if I'm yeeted today. I'm just sayin'.

[Ircher]

Day 3 VC #6

Xlos (2): Almost50 (1133), Toogeloo (1134)
Almost50 (2): Xlos (1135), MathBlade (1124)
Jake the Wolfie (1): Jake the Wolfie (1004)
Titus (0):

Toogeloo (3) (F-2): Galron (976), DrippingGoofball (1074), Titus (1075)

Not Voting (1): WhemeStar

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no earlier than Thursday, July 8, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-08 21:45:00).
This phase will end no later than Wednesday, July 14, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-14 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any
6: Galron : He/him
7: MathBlade : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him
12: Toogeloo : They/them