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Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:46 am
by Enchant
Why claim?

Alice was hammered long ago i believe.

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:49 am
by Dwlee99
I don't like that Alice was talking about catching up multiple times and didn't follow through and now it is almost deadline

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:50 am
by Kazyan
Alice only reached E-1. We have not secured an elimination.

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:51 am
by Enchant
In post 1179, Not Known 15 wrote:
Vote Count 1.11AliceK (6)Titus;GrandpaMo;Kazyan;Dwlee99;Nathann;Enchant;

Kazyan (4)ssbm_Kyouko;
Jolyne
;Andresvmb;Ythan;

DrippingGoofball (2)geraintm;DrippingGoofball;

Dwlee99 (1)AliceK;

GrandpaMo (0)

Enchant
MargotRosa
(0)

Not Voting(0)

Andresvmb (0)

Ythan
JacksonVirgo
(0)

Jolyne
(0)

ssbm_Kyouko (0)

geraintm (0)

No Elimination (0)

Titus
Nixie
(0)

Nathann (0)

With 13 alive it is 7 to execute.

Day 1 will end in (expired on 2021-08-24 18:10:00) or when an execution has been achieved.
In post 1195, Titus wrote:VOTE: Alice

I moved it but the mod didn't see so I am putting it back.

@Everyone, someone said or implied no protectives. I found that odd.
Oh. Titus already voted before.

Well.

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:05 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
I have about an hour until leaving for dinner, will hammer alice if she's still e-1 then. If y'all really want to cut it close someone can unvote and I'll place my vote and you can try to wait a lil longer for a claim, but by that point I wont be around to switch to.kazyan

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:17 am
by Jolyne
no time for a cw so b4 i forget VOTE: alicek
Have fun town!

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:19 am
by Jolyne
if this flips a town pr than LOL
also kinda hoping it flips town for da info

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:20 am
by DrippingGoofball
Scum didn't want to hammer.

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:28 am
by Kazyan
Jolyne, can you give a quick summary of your reads before the thread locks?

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:28 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
I doubt there are any useful PRs considering the known info

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:33 am
by Ythan
I wanted to be the hero.

Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:40 am
by Not Known 15
Vote Count 1.11
AliceK (7)Titus;GrandpaMo;Kazyan;Dwlee99;Nathann;Enchant;
Jolyne
;

Kazyan (4)ssbm_Kyouko;Andresvmb;Ythan;DrippingGoofball;

DrippingGoofball (1)geraintm;

Dwlee99 (1)AliceK;

GrandpaMo (0)

Enchant
MargotRosa
(0)

Not Voting(0)

Andresvmb (0)

Ythan
JacksonVirgo
(0)

Jolyne
(0)

ssbm_Kyouko (0)

geraintm (0)

No Elimination (0)

Titus
Nixie
(0)

Nathann (0)

With 13 alive it is 7 to execute.

Day 1 ends.

AliceK
has been eliminated Day 1. They were:
Spoiler:
Vanilla TownieYou are a Vanilla Townie.

You have no active abilities.

You win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.

Confirm by replying to this PM with a summary of your role.


Night 1 begins and ends in (expired on 2021-08-26 16:41:00).

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:21 am
by Not Known 15
Jolyne
died Night 1. They were:
Spoiler:
Informed Innocent ChildYou are an Informed Innocent Child.

You are confirmed to be town at the start of the game.
You know additional information about the setup: [REDACTED]

You have no active abilities.

You win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.

Confirm by replying to this PM with a summary of your role.


Vote Count 2.0Not Voting(11)Titus;GrandpaMo;Kazyan;Dwlee99;Nathann;Enchant;geraintm;ssbm_Kyouko;Andresvmb;Ythan;DrippingGoofball;

Kazyan (0)

DrippingGoofball (0)

Dwlee99 (0)

GrandpaMo (0)

Enchant
MargotRosa
(0)

Andresvmb (0)

Ythan
JacksonVirgo
(0)

ssbm_Kyouko (0)

geraintm (0)

No Elimination (0)

Titus
Nixie
(0)

Nathann (0)

With 11 alive it is 6 to execute.

Day 2 will end in (expired on 2021-09-02 17:23:00) or when an execution has been achieved.

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:25 am
by Titus
VOTE: Kazyan

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:30 am
by Nathann
I was planning to open with a vote on Enchant, but I get a feeling Kazyan is going to be a point of discussion until it's resolved.

Actually, why not. Kazyan, how you doing?

VOTE: Enchant

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:32 am
by Titus
I want discussion but not necessarily a flip. I'd love counterwagons because I love my shiny data. Let's go to town, no pun intended.

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:32 am
by Nathann
Does the data from yesterday tell you anything?

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:33 am
by Ythan
Morning friends.

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:34 am
by Andresvmb
I’ll be back tomorrow. But my pool of suspicious folks hasn’t really changed all that much.

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:34 am
by Dwlee99
Waiting for Kazyan to show up

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:37 am
by Titus
In post 1241, Nathann wrote:Does the data from yesterday tell you anything?
Not yet. I'd want to see if it was T v T or T v S. Scum are highly disincentivized from bussing. They likely won't care in T v T unless one townie is very right or very wrong. Sorting K is the next step to get things going.

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:38 am
by Titus
In post 1243, Andresvmb wrote:I’ll be back tomorrow. But my pool of suspicious folks hasn’t really changed all that much.
That's the thing in near mountainous. People rarely reset.

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:45 am
by Titus
In post 1245, Titus wrote:
In post 1241, Nathann wrote:Does the data from yesterday tell you anything?
Not yet. I'd want to see if it was T v T or T v S. Scum are highly disincentivized from bussing. They likely won't care in T v T unless one townie is very right or very wrong. Sorting K is the next step to get things going.
Adding on more here. Whatever his alignment (town or scum), it's highly unlikely K's reads were right. Otherwise scum would push K over a lurker.

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:26 pm
by Kazyan
Hi, I wrote notes and did an analysis during the night phase, looking for partners and stuff. I've got reads.

Spoiler: My notes document, in case you're interested
Dwlee: while most of his content is hard to figure out, #1119 stands out. If I'm picking up what Dwlee is putting down, then why doesn't scum just push the final wagon over me? Do they want to save me for later, since the votes for Alice are begrudging and the tide was turning on me? I do like GMo's scumcase on Dwlee; the vote movements are pretty serious.

The above analysis basically applies to Nathan as well. Nathan is my top townread.

Did scum spend the entire first half of D1 bussing their partner (Margot), and then try to get their replacement ran over? probs not. The baby-soft 'can we kill Enchant' theme in the ISO sure does look kinda calculated tho;
Enchant looks like DWlee's intended miselim
, this is important

Claims to have a townread on me towards the end of day 1 due to my softs, but folds real quick when Kyo suggests otherwise? Still looks bad for Dwlee but really doesn't look like Kyo would be a partner here

Townreads gera consistently but has nothing to say at all; check Dwlee's ISO and ctrl+F "gera"; you'll see what I mean. Partnery? I'm probably overthinking it

Interaction with Titus in 1034-1036--wtf is that. Titus folds, but Titus seems to do that a lot, so it's not scum-scripted?


Enchant: 1011 kinda townpings me, and 1168 indicates a lack of awareness of where the votes have fallen, so that might be town? But clarification of the mistake in 1228 softens that towniness. Enchant is still extremely reactive with no real game analysis, so this is still scummy.

#571--hate this post. So conveniently diffident. Related Ctrl+Fs for Andre in Dwlee's ISO are interesting; id DWlee is town, Andre is a plausible deepwolf partner?

Has a whole-ass slapfight from posts 683 to 701. Seems like empty words from both players, but would Ythan pounce on his partner when Enchant is in the middle of making a point of defending themselves against lurking? It would be pretty good distancing.

Nothing to say about Kyo

WTF is that interaction with gera

Indignant hard-defense of Titus in one interaction, but then isn't aware of where Titus' vote is. Inconclusive on partneriness

Ythan: 345 says "This is perfectly normal dgb don't vote it."

Then, continues to suggest that DGB is still on the table from then after in every post thereafter--soft-defending DGB while still leaving the I-told-you-so option open if DGB flips scum. Partnery? 671 is a "me too" post after Nathan

Make a motion to pick up chainsaw when Enchant attacks Andre in 537; later townreads Andre in 649. Has a bunch to say about GMo, but practically nothing about Andre, which is weird because Andre and GMo have been at each other's throats for most of Day 1, so I think if Ythan is scum, one of these two could very well be Ythan's partner.

Progression of GMo is bizarre. 603 suggests GMo is scummy; 648 expounds on it in a way that seems to come from scum mindset. Continues shade until after the gambit, but pivots away from a GMo vote with unnecessary commentary on 1100, after promising presents in 1001 but not delivering presents. WTF? Even if Ythan is scum, does Ythan want GMo gone or not???? No???? so does that mean Andre is scum!Ythan's partner?


Titus: 'High cognitive load' scumtell in #793? That's your slot, fam. Normally, this would be town, but since scum don't have daytalk in this game, Titus wouldn't have been able to see any hypothetical Nixie posts in the scum PT.

JOLYNE'S READS: Ythan likely town, DGB is just venge baiting (I would be very surprised if this were the case, but let's just run with it), Andre/Nathan/Kyo are town; DWlee was previously read as town but is now on the table.

Kyo: I don't know why I got tinfoily over this slot; Kyo is still very much trying to solve the game


gera: Chock full of moon logic and I think that's town?



GMo: Has a gamesolve post about Dwlee that is convincing, but says the other scum is Kyo and spends zero time explaining that, instead trying to drive the wagon over Dwlee. If GMo is scum (very probably not), Kyo could be the partner? But I also townread/tinfoil Kyo soooo ????

Scumreads gera; never explains why or makes any push about that. This would check out as an act of distancing without risking bussing; if either player flips scum, question the other

Has an Enchant vote in the denoument of the gambit; probably wouldn't set up his own scumbuddy to hold the bag on this one

Kyo: very early vote on Margot/Enchant, brief diversion to GMo, and then just rides it until voting me. In the meantime, puts noticeable effort into breaking up the Andre/GMo fight. Inconsistent with GMo as a partner, very consistent with Andre as a partner.

Shading Ythan, but never makes a serious push. Distancing?

Some inconclusive comments on gera

Some discussion on Titus but never says anything definitive. At the end of the day, claims to be willing to vote Titus, but conveniently puts Titus at the end of a list of four after the three leading wagons, so this might just be distancing too??



Titus: Pushes Andre for a while, then U-turns in 1020 and goes silent, but I can't tell if that's better-than-chance "abort distancing!" or not.

798 is a scumtell in some of my games, since scum tends to have an "are you sure this is a good method? O:^)" reaction when I try a new scumhunting technique when I'm town. The "off the table" list here is Nathan/Andre/Kyo, but Titus a scumreads Andre on Day 1 and leaves the others alone...this is pretty muddled.

Silent on DGB and gera


DGB: 704 is way more theatrical than the rest of DGB's ISO. Is this bussing? Probably not; DGB goes back and forth across the ISO in ways that seem natural

Nothing to say about Dwlee except for responding to some questions. Hated my readslits where Dwlee was my top scumread. Partnery?


gera: defends GMo in 638. GMo is in the "they may be scum, it is all.a wash" group (425), but that's so weak and spread across enough people that it looks like distancing.

Says all of Kyo's votes are bad, but always in a group of 3 other votes. Entire ISO is just shading Kyo, which I would call non-partnery, but even the RVS vote is on Kyo, which I find kind of a big coincidence

Ythan shows up for a second time in these lists-of-3 as well.

Tries to kill the Kazyan wagon by football-tackling Andre in post 1128. Bold. I guess this could be hardline signaling to Andre that No Elimination is really the way to go, but that seems like it would be suicide for the scumteam if it worked? I'll call this worse-than-random chance of partner behavior

----

"Scum didn't want to hammer" post from DGB

Options: Kyo, Andre, Ythan, DGB, gera. DGB/any-of-those seems like an unlikely scumteam, if it's going out of its way to point that out, but I can totally see Ythan trying to save face with post 1235.


----


Image

RECOMMENDED ELIMINATIONS:


1. Dwlee (almost everything about this slot is bad juju)
2. Dwlee again
3. Ythan (both scummy and would be a good info flip)
4. Kazyan (I can
not
be around during ELo if I remain widely scumread)

VOTE: Dwlee

Anyway, fire away with questions you've got.

Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:35 pm
by Dwlee99
Okay I thought that Kazyan was a restricted watcher but clearly that isn't the case if he is okay saying he wants to be eliminated. I'm a backup watcher and could have sworn that was what he was softing which is why I went along with it so hard but I think now it might be a red herring based on mod meta but I'm not sure what to make of what I thought was Kazyan's soft