Open 861: The Turing Test [game over]

[GuiltyLion]

with 6 people currently either already voting dann or leaning towards voting dann (GL, Ari, Loki) and a lot of the more consensus townreads being in that group, it's actually kinda baffling to me that you can continue to unironically use the argument that a scumteam with kuti wouldn't put them up against dann bc that's not a good enough chance to win the point

scum wouldn't know how any of us were going to react though, you're using this argument as hindsight evidence that scum would not have when they were deciding on the test

[GuiltyLion]

with 6 people currently either already voting dann or leaning towards voting dann (GL, Ari, Loki) and a lot of the more consensus townreads being in that group, it's actually kinda baffling to me that you can continue to unironically use the argument that a scumteam with kuti wouldn't put them up against dann bc that's not a good enough chance to win the point

like we have in front of us some pretty convincing experimental evidence showing that there is in fact a very good chance of winning the point there

like, again, are you seriously telling me scum went "who is our best chance to win a point with kuti? Dann? Yup, gotta be, everyone will WIFOM and vote him"

that's not how wolves tend to think

[fireisredsir]

if two people who are both scummy are put up, then i actually would trust town more to correctly find the scum. i think people are decent at that

but if you put up someone scummy against someone towny, suddenly the scumhunting part of people's brains shut off and they start trying to wonder about *why* mafia chose these two people with such a wide disparity

and if i were making that gamble i would put my bet on enough town landing on the side of thinking that maf put up a strong scum player to try to win a point

[fireisredsir]

with 6 people currently either already voting dann or leaning towards voting dann (GL, Ari, Loki) and a lot of the more consensus townreads being in that group, it's actually kinda baffling to me that you can continue to unironically use the argument that a scumteam with kuti wouldn't put them up against dann bc that's not a good enough chance to win the point

like we have in front of us some pretty convincing experimental evidence showing that there is in fact a very good chance of winning the point there

like, again, are you seriously telling me scum went "who is our best chance to win a point with kuti? Dann? Yup, gotta be, everyone will WIFOM and vote him"

that's not how wolves tend to think

yes, or at least that they think it was a good enough chance for it to be worth trying because the reward for pulling it off successfully is huge

its basically the whole idea behind this setup i have no idea why you would expect they wouldn't think like that

[GuiltyLion]

yes, or at least that they think it was a good enough chance for it to be worth trying because the reward for pulling it off successfully is huge

? the reward is just a point, it's not that huge. the risk is way way bigger than the reward, that's kinda my main place I'm coming from

I could also ask, if the aim is to get town!Dann dead

and

win a point, why not put a stronger scum player up against him than kuti?

I really don't vibe with the idea that scum can & will bank things on town WIFOMing themselves. I think if anything town usually doesn't WIFOM themselves, most people tend to go for what looks "obvious" because you're gonna feel stupid if you try to galaxybrain and you're wrong.

[fireisredsir]

i mean its possible that im giving the mafia more credit than they deserve but idk i just don't really see it as likely that they would go for the surface level approach

[fireisredsir]

you're gonna feel stupid if you try to galaxybrain and you're wrong

extremely unrelateable tbh, but maybe i should have more of this fear

[GuiltyLion]

I do generally understand your concerns, I guess if I'm making a mistake it's that I'm assuming that mafia are going to play safer instead of risky down when they're down 1-0, I may not be giving mafia enough credit myself

[fireisredsir]

the thing is tho that i don't even really think that voting dann here is that galaxy brain of a move

it's literally just level 1

level 0 would be completely ignoring the fact that mafia choose these targets, and just limming the scummy one

level 1 is giving some basic consideration to the fact that mafia chose these people and they chose them for a reason

i feel like its not that hard to predict that town would be mostly on level 1 and not on level 0??

[fireisredsir]

by the time we get to the final day everyone is gonna be on level 2000 it'll be so fun

[Aristeia]

Feeling kind of tempted to sheep fire becuz he was so kind to win Frenemies for me after I was tragically murdered at night by someone I never expected to kill me but I will feel sort of dumb if Dann is scum here >.>

[GuiltyLion]

the thing is tho that i don't even really think that voting dann here is that galaxy brain of a move

it's literally just level 1

level 0 would be completely ignoring the fact that mafia choose these targets, and just limming the scummy one

level 1 is giving some basic consideration to the fact that mafia chose these people and they chose them for a reason

i feel like its not that hard to predict that town would be mostly on level 1 and not on level 0??

ok putting it this way makes me question myself a lot more, I get what you're saying

but end of the day if we assume mafia is tapped into everyone's reads, they've basically set this up as

"do you want to lim a townie looking person or a scummy looking person?", instead of "townie looking vs townie looking" or "scummy looking vs scummy looking"

and you're saying they bet that the majority of us will pick the townie looking person
and I'm saying that feels like too much of a gamble when losing this test means they have to run the table to win

Are you in agreement with me that this is a gamble? or do you think this is actually the best possible percentage play for mafia (assuming you're right and kuti is scum)?

if you agree w/ me that it's a gamble, then I think we're just disagreeing on whether mafia is likely to gamble or not. but sometimes it kinda feels like you believe this is actually the best choice for scum because of the weaponized WIFOM, whereas like a S/S choice doesn't really have a lot of WIFOM by comparison

I'm kinda reflecting about how I play scum - I think I avoid intentionally leveraging WIFOM because to me that feels scary and unpredictable and it's safer to try to just remove objective threats to winning. and I'm always afraid if I try to make WIFOM arguments it's gonna look tremendously scummy. so maybe this disagreement is also a deeper indication of differences in how we think about playing scum

[Aristeia]

I think I'll probably make a better decision after I've slept actually.

I think there are some elements of your argument that don't quite click for me and I'm not sure if it's because I'm sleepy or because they don't make sense.

[Aristeia]

like what do you actually expect Scum!Dann to do in this game with a weak team ?

[GuiltyLion]

I think it's mostly clear but I wanna clarify all the phrasing/questions in my previous post about this being a 'gamble' is all under scum!kuti assumption. my prior argument and position was that in the scum!Dann world, it's not a gamble, it's the best-percentage play. which also gets at what I was saying with my last thought - prolly fire and I are to some degree disagreeing about what we think is the "best" play for scum here

[Datisi]

prodding Roden.

[Roden]

I'm kinda just waiting for Rat to respond

[Radical Rat]

Wait, what am I responding to?

[Vivax]

the thing is tho that i don't even really think that voting dann here is that galaxy brain of a move

it's literally just level 1

level 0 would be completely ignoring the fact that mafia choose these targets, and just limming the scummy one

level 1 is giving some basic consideration to the fact that mafia chose these people and they chose them for a reason

i feel like its not that hard to predict that town would be mostly on level 1 and not on level 0??

Who would you say reacted as lvl 0 and lvl 1?

[Loki Dokie]

Here’s my issue with all of this, Dann has a pretty decent scumgame and I’ve been fooled by him before. so I don’t agree he was obvtown here anymore than I think Kuti reads like obscum and as Roden has stated, Kuti was an odd choice.

In a typical game of mafia, I very much doubt, I would be voting either of them on d2. Neither slot looks partnery scummy to me.

But that’s the counter wifom argument, what if Kuti is the most townread of the scumteam?

Like seriously, in a normal game, is there anyone who was particularly interested in yeeting either of them d2? I think not.

But here’s the thing, let’s say one or more of Vulture, RR, Roden, maybe Bell, Vivax? are the team, if Dann is town, probably against any of those slots, he 100% never gets voted right? Especially against Vulture, RR, Roden, so I think that GL, Ari and furtive and probably fire are all town here.

So who does Dann win against over anyone of those? Maybe Bell and Vivax but they’re just not confident reads and more likely to be town for me, so I think Vulture, RR, Roden? in a Dann!town world would make the most sense as the rest of the team unless I’m wrong on either Bell or Vivax.

So which of those has the best chance against hypothetical town!Dann?

Yes I know, some people think we shouldn’t be discussing other reads but I don’t in a vacuum find either Dann or Kuti particularily scummy, so I would argue that both would fare better than against those three but then you have Kitty shading both Dann and Vulture slot, so still going back and forth on this.

[Loki Dokie]

Damn stupid autocorrect! I meant to type “particularly” not “partnery”.

[fireisredsir]

the thing is tho that i don't even really think that voting dann here is that galaxy brain of a move

it's literally just level 1

level 0 would be completely ignoring the fact that mafia choose these targets, and just limming the scummy one

level 1 is giving some basic consideration to the fact that mafia chose these people and they chose them for a reason

i feel like its not that hard to predict that town would be mostly on level 1 and not on level 0??

ok putting it this way makes me question myself a lot more, I get what you're saying

but end of the day if we assume mafia is tapped into everyone's reads, they've basically set this up as

"do you want to lim a townie looking person or a scummy looking person?", instead of "townie looking vs townie looking" or "scummy looking vs scummy looking"

and you're saying they bet that the majority of us will pick the townie looking person
and I'm saying that feels like too much of a gamble when losing this test means they have to run the table to win

Are you in agreement with me that this is a gamble? or do you think this is actually the best possible percentage play for mafia (assuming you're right and kuti is scum)?

if you agree w/ me that it's a gamble, then I think we're just disagreeing on whether mafia is likely to gamble or not. but sometimes it kinda feels like you believe this is actually the best choice for scum because of the weaponized WIFOM, whereas like a S/S choice doesn't really have a lot of WIFOM by comparison

I'm kinda reflecting about how I play scum - I think I avoid intentionally leveraging WIFOM because to me that feels scary and unpredictable and it's safer to try to just remove objective threats to winning. and I'm always afraid if I try to make WIFOM arguments it's gonna look tremendously scummy. so maybe this disagreement is also a deeper indication of differences in how we think about playing scum

yea, im saying that i think they could believe that they'd have a better chance of winning the prediction bet of where town will land on townie vs scummy than they would at, for example, putting up two scummy people and having people instead be more inclined to just scumhunt normally

it is def a gamble but i think that every choice is a gamble on some level? like you are always putting up a scum and there is always going to be a risk that you lose the point. i don't really see what makes this choice such an inherently more risky gamble

im not sure if its the best choice or not bc idk what the scumteam is. but it seems to me that it is at least a pretty good choice. and i don't really understand how a scumteam with dann could think that putting him in this test would be their best choice. they're making just as much of a gamble imo, they are well aware that they are putting a townread person against a scummy person and they're betting that town won't give in to the wifom. either way it's a gamble

my core point ig is that putting up a townread person vs a scummy person is throwing a huge *wink wink* at the town, like it's basically begging us to think about why scum would make that choice. and to me it makes sense to me that a team where kuti is maf would be begging people to think about why scum would make that choice. it makes not much sense to me that a team where dann is maf would, bc i think the obvious next step that people will make is "oh, they put dann up to win the point!"

[fireisredsir]

like what do you actually expect Scum!Dann to do in this game with a weak team ?

idk i think he'd be in the making reasonable arguments crowd, making arguments that help scum

like i think it's p likely here that we have reasonable town on both sides of the debate. i don't think that people are necessarily going to conclude that all the people who argued for eliminating town are scum. i think there's a lot of room for a townread player to influence things without getting caught for it

[fireisredsir]

Like seriously, in a normal game, is there anyone who was particularly interested in yeeting either of them d2? I think not.

i mean kuti prob would have been one of 2 people that id be most likely to vote starting d2 of a normal game here

[Loki Dokie]

Like seriously, in a normal game, is there anyone who was particularly interested in yeeting either of them d2? I think not.

i mean kuti prob would have been one of 2 people that id be most likely to vote starting d2 of a normal game here

Really? I didn’t find him to be particularly scummy.

However, I’m thinking who am I most suss on vs Dann and I think Kuti if scum may not necessarily be the weakest member of the team.

So if my current PoE is Vulture/RR/Roden, then I think if any of them are town, they all would lose to a scum!Dann, so Kuti might actually be the best option according to that if these reads are in fact correct.

So I think I just wifommed myself into probably voting Kuti.

Because he actually would make sense in that scenario, wouldn’t it?