Mainstream Mafia II: D&D Edition [FIN]

[Pine]

Ok step 0, then step 1

[Miss Lane]

itt buncha math nerds

[Pink Ball]

Hello

[Pink Ball]

I got a message and I I didn't understand a thing lol I'll paraphrase it and you can tell me what the hell is going on

[gobbledygook]

Paging Dr. EP, paging Dr. EP

——

Do we know who the message is about?

[Pink Ball]

So it starts saying that she never thought she would write to a beggar girl (thats me yay) before this started but that she cannot be certain of the people she have written before, for example, Ace. She doesn't trust him. Who the fuck is Ace.

But she says she wont talk about him; instead, she says there's someone called Bruce Thazmus (or something along those lines 'cause she's not sure) that she wouldn't like to see him ever.

Then she says I should run if things get messy 'cause she fears the worst is yet to come. Lady Estelle wishes me well, and tells me she left me a parcel with clothes awwwww thank you Lady Estelle.

[Almost50]

OK, I will say this for the last time:

gobble explicitly outed himself as a cult. Not only that, but he also outed dave as a cult partner. WHY DIDN'T GOBBLE GET MOD-KILLED? It's because THAT WAS NOT PLAYING AGAINST HIS WIN CON. The cult has some way of still growing.

So, I propose we lynch gobble today, and leash Elements unto xofelf. If she flips Town then we know gobble was the last cult 100% and you all are welcome to lynch me tomorrow (to get to 9 players and see if Elements/Miss Lynch will leave the game). If xofelf flip cult herself, you know you've been played by the Turkey, and then you cab act accordingly.

@EP: Is your bet on me being today's lynch worth more to you than a Town win? Because, I'm telling you right now lynching me is a waste of a lynch from town's PoV. I know you still suspect me, but what the hell, man? Even if we hypothetically accept your argument (which is clearly faulty) that I stole your ability then I will still be JK'd tonight anyway.

Now why is your theory clearly faulty? Because I have been JK'd for 2-3 nights now. I could not have possibly stolen anything from you or anyone else, unless you assume I am something like strongman strong-willed already, and then if that's the case then it doesn't make sense to accuse me of having earned something from you to make a kill! See? I either could not have acted last night AND the night before (at the very least), or I could have acted anyway and the "he could have won something fro4m my ability" is no longer true.

But the fact is I am NOT the Bugbear to begin with. Don't you think I would have given Rauth a post to verify if I was his scum p? The mere fact I avoided giving away any info regarding my alignment/role until Rauth was outed should prove I am not scum (or at least not on his team).

Over and out.

[EspressoPatronum]

So it starts saying that she never thought she would write to a beggar girl (thats me yay) before this started but that she cannot be certain of the people she have written before, for example, Ace. She doesn't trust him.

Who the fuck is Ace

.

I'm Ace. Hmmm.

Does the letter actually say Estelle doesn't know me, or is that your commentary?

I wonder why it says this. I'm going to go through RCE's past letters to me to see if I can figure out why.

But she says she wont talk about him; instead, she says there's someone called Bruce Thazmus (or something along those lines 'cause she's not sure) that she wouldn't like to see him ever.

Ok so RCE said the letter would be about A50.

A50 claimed his name was Sabina Merrin (12012)

Bruce Thazmus is nothing like Sabina Merrin. Either A50 is lying or RCE's letter is wrong. I'm included to believe the former.

Then she says I should run if things get messy 'cause she fears the worst is yet to come. Lady Estelle wishes me well, and tells me she left me a parcel with clothes awwwww thank you Lady Estelle.

This is consistent with the type of send-off I've gotten before.

[EspressoPatronum]

Re above - 'included' was meant to be *inclined* to believe....

Nothing in RCE's past letters suggest why Estelle wouldn't trust me. She congratulated me after the pk kill and thanked me for my hard work in another.

On another note, Estelle said something that I missed on an earlier read. @Pine where does your character live?

[EspressoPatronum]

@A50 this is the night I'm claiming you took my bookie power:

Night action list:

- Pine motivates KA
- KA JKs Bingle and dave
- Ceph blocks Elements
- RC writes a message about Bingle and sends it to me/gobble/PB
- I book Bingle + go for a defensive power
- UT checks gobble
- gobble fishes for something confirmable via night flavour
- Elements kills A50 (but will probably get blocked)

Edited to reflect the recent advancements

As you can see, you were neither jailed nor roleblocked that night.

While you were jailed the next night (ie. last night), I don't think we were prevented from collecting the reward.

An example of the way it works is this:
1. Book a target (N0)
2. Lynch that target (D1)
3. Claim the reward (N1)
4. Use the reward (N1 or D2 depending on activation)

I have no reason to believe that #3 can be blocked if #2 was successful. Instead, I think you either got a night power and were prevented from using it (#4) or got a day power and haven't used it yet.

[KidAmn]

Vote: Almost50.

[EspressoPatronum]

OK, I will say this for the last time:

gobble explicitly outed himself as a cult. Not only that, but he also outed dave as a cult partner. WHY DIDN'T GOBBLE GET MOD-KILLED? It's because THAT WAS NOT PLAYING AGAINST HIS WIN CON. The cult has some way of still growing.

We have no indication that the cult is still growing. The only reason the cult kept growing in MM1 was due to a very rare scenario in which an ability upgrader targeted a cult, making the cult a replacement CL.

For your theory to be correct, we would also need cult!UT, as he checked and cleared xofelf.

I also don't think it's possible that the cult is larger than just gobble rn. Since Pine motivated Bingle N1, BB on most subsequent nights, and KA all recent nights, there's almost no room for additional recruits. Perhaps 1, but again, we need xofelf AND UT to be cult for this to be the case.

So, I propose we lynch gobble today, and leash Elements unto xofelf. If she flips Town then we know gobble was the last cult 100% and you all are welcome to lynch me tomorrow (to get to 9 players and see if Elements/Miss Lynch will leave the game). If xofelf flip cult herself, you know you've been played by the Turkey, and then you cab act accordingly.

Why is gobble so pressing to you? Assuming for a moment that you're correct about the growing cult, do you think he's the reason for its continued growth? Why?

If you don't think he's the reason, why advocate for his death when it would be more pressing to kill the new CL?

@EP: Is your bet on me being today's lynch worth more to you than a Town win? Because, I'm telling you right now lynching me is a waste of a lynch from town's PoV. I know you still suspect me, but what the hell, man? Even if we hypothetically accept your argument (which is clearly faulty) that I stole your ability then I will still be JK'd tonight anyway.

How does lynching you over gobble lose us the game? Even if we're somehow wrong on you, how do we lose because of it?

If you were in my shoes and you were hunting for the Bugbear, who would you pick? I know it's not gobble, so it has to be someone else.

Now why is your theory clearly faulty? Because I have been JK'd for 2-3 nights now. I could not have possibly stolen anything from you or anyone else, unless you assume I am something like strongman strong-willed already, and then if that's the case then it doesn't make sense to accuse me of having earned something from you to make a kill! See? I either could not have acted last night AND the night before (at the very least), or I could have acted anyway and the "he could have won something fro4m my ability" is no longer true.

This is incorrect. 12459 demonstrates why.

But the fact is I am NOT the Bugbear to begin with. Don't you think I would have given Rauth a post to verify if I was his scum p? The mere fact I avoided giving away any info regarding my alignment/role until Rauth was outed should prove I am not scum (or at least not on his team).

Over and out.

I'm the contrary, your unwillingness to give any details about your flavour makes you more suspicious. I think that you didn't know enough about the flavour to ensure you didn't accidentally incriminate yourself, so you made up an excuse to delay a flavour claim until you could come up with one.

On your point about Rauth, I don't see any convincing reason why/why not scum would give a post to their buddy who was lying about a lie detector. If anything, it just looks like you set it up so you could later say something to the effect of, "I knew he was lying....see?!"

[gobbledygook]

I just find it strange that people are still clamoring for my death when I could only be cult with Xofelf. More importantly, the cult leader Snake Creature thing, and related flavor to cultation, has not appeared in the night flavor since Dr. Easy Bake's death.

I do not think a few share of people are thinking beyond myself, ML, and Elements. That is problematic because they should be. There are is AT LEAST 1 more mafia alive (Bugbear), possibly 2 (vote manipulator). Yet people are more content trying to go through the known anti-towns rather than trying to suss out the unknown anti-towns.

I guess what I am trying to say is that the town other than EP needs to get its act together and seriously start trying. If we are wrong about A50, things get quite a bit messy from here on out.

[Almost50]

I have no reason to believe that #3 can be blocked if #2 was successful. Instead, I think you either got a night power and were prevented from using it (#4) or got a day power and haven't used it yet.

JFK! Then why the freak are you lynching me? I thought your whole case was about me possibly having killed dave bypassing my JK (Roleblock) and his JK (Doctor). I you think I was prevented from using whatever reward I hypothetically may have received then you should be looking for the one who did kill dave!

[EspressoPatronum]

I have no reason to believe that #3 can be blocked if #2 was successful. Instead, I think you either got a night power and were prevented from using it (#4) or got a day power and haven't used it yet.

JFK! Then why the freak are you lynching me? I thought your whole case was about me possibly having killed dave bypassing my JK (Roleblock) and his JK (Doctor). I you think I was prevented from using whatever reward I hypothetically may have received then you should be looking for the one who did kill dave!

You misunderstood my post. This is not what I was saying in my post.

[EspressoPatronum]

VOTE: A50

[Cephrir]

A50 is the lynch today, that's basically a guilty.

I think I'm gonna let elements shoot tonight? If were worried the cult could still be expanding then let's just shoot turkey.

[EspressoPatronum]

I have no reason to believe that #3 can be blocked if #2 was successful. Instead, I think you either got a night power and were prevented from using it (#4) or got a day power and haven't used it yet.

JFK! Then why the freak are you lynching me? I thought your whole case was about me possibly having killed dave bypassing my JK (Roleblock) and his JK (Doctor). I you think I was prevented from using whatever reward I hypothetically may have received then you should be looking for the one who did kill dave!

You misunderstood my post. This is not what I was saying in my post.

To expand, the entirety of my post was to show how you were not jailed multiple nights and would not be prevented from collecting a reward.

Assuming the Bugbear theory to Dave's death is correct, it's probable that you've already used the power. Maybe that's how dave died.

[Almost50]

If you don't think he's the reason, why advocate for his death when it would be more pressing to kill the new CL?

because I don't know who else is cult! Duh! gobble is the only outed cultist currently, and is claimed to be the only one. If we lynch him and flip xofelf we either get confirmation the cult has been eliminated OR we know they were not.

Who says the cult didn't recruit xofelf AFTER she was cleared by UT? If he had checked ANY flipped cultist BEFORE they were recruited he would have returned a clear on them. It's not like the mod would tell ask the CL to submit a list of his recruits and then report them beforehand!!!

[EspressoPatronum]

A50 is the lynch today, that's basically a guilty.

I think I'm gonna let elements shoot tonight? If were worried the cult could still be expanding then let's just shoot turkey.

Please don't let Elements kill gobble tonight.

I'm putting gobble as a BOOK tonight. If he's dead, I can't get the reward from the lynch.

[EspressoPatronum]

If you don't think he's the reason, why advocate for his death when it would be more pressing to kill the new CL?

because I don't know who else is cult! Duh! gobble is the only outed cultist currently, and is claimed to be the only one. If we lynch him and flip xofelf we either get confirmation the cult has been eliminated OR we know they were not.[...]

Right, but gobble as a cultist doesn't matter if you genuinely believe that the cult is growing. You should be concerned about finding the reason for the growing cult, not a random cult recruit.

[EspressoPatronum]

@Ceph I can't stress enough how good these bookie powers are.

Crossbow - 1-shot dayvig
Ring of Protection - 1-time kill redirect
Tome of Limited Knowledge - 1 question to the mod with an accompanying true answer.

Not blocking Elements will delay me from getting another one. Let's just play it safe and slow.

[Almost50]

But he DOES?!! He counts towards the total number of cultists alive.

And NO.. >I< should not. YOU should. I am just a bloody SURVIVOR, so all I want is to LIVE to endgame. I believe that to be 2 cycles away either way. If gobble is the last cultist then you (YOU) need to find the last Scum alive. If they have been growing then they will win soon enough.

An example for illustration:

Let's say the cult have been growing, and are at 3 members now. Lynch me, have Elements kill someone, and the last Mafioso probably kills another. Unless either of them hits a cultist then tomorrow you are at SEVEN players (because Elements & ML should be leaving the game if 2 kills successfully resolve) and guess what? If the cult recruits ONE more player during the night they had ALREADY WON.

Now let's assume we lynched gobble today instead. Cult are down to 2 players. Assuming the same night actions as above we are at 7 players tomorrow but only 3 of them are cultists. The game is still on.

OF COURSE I made it as extreme an example as possible to demonstrate my PoV as clear as possible. If the cult are only 2 now that is the same logic, but a different chain of possible scenarios leading to the cult achieving parity (basically more time and gobble lynched tomorrow slowing them down)

If you truly believe I am scum then you should still consider lynching gobble today and flipping xofelf tonight just to be safe. You can always lynch me tomorrow if the game isn't over by then anyway. At least you know the Mafia cannot be growing. And besides, if the cult IS growing then you probably NEED the Mafia on your side. I had even considered fake claiming Mafia before, but thought you might want to leash me and when I fail to perform your desired kill (because I can't kill, GDI) I would have been caught in a lie and still got lynched. It's amazing how claiming scum (fake or otherwise) buys you more time than truthfully claiming your role!

"I am the SK"

Ok, cool. Let's have you around for a while.

"I am the one that summoned the SK"

We forgive you if you promise to leave us alone after you've killed enough of us.

"I am cult and this is my p"

Oh, we love you.. so let's say we keep you around until the next Thanks Giving.

"I am a Survivor and promise to side by the Town even though I didn't have to"

DIE, SCUM. DIE!

[EspressoPatronum]

@A50 let's assume you're telling the truth about being a survivor named Sabina Merrin.

Two things:
1. What do you make of RCE's letter?
2. Who is the Bugbear?

My answers are: 1) it's true, and 2) you are. If you're actually not the Bugbear, then I'm wrong on #2. Help me find the answer.

[Cephrir]

A50 is the lynch today, that's basically a guilty.

I think I'm gonna let elements shoot tonight? If were worried the cult could still be expanding then let's just shoot turkey.

Please don't let Elements kill gobble tonight.

I'm putting gobble as a BOOK tonight. If he's dead, I can't get the reward from the lynch.

Sorry, I keep forgetting about this. Fine.