Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Finally WHAT? And WHY are you ignoring me (●o≧益≦)o

pedit: I am NOT an alt (╬ Ò ‸ Ó)

[Mathdino]

@Dino: FINALLY! But I think we should start with the lowest single # (i.e. Iconeum) and move from there.

finally what?

from my perspective janitor is effectively a single, and if you're townreading me you should also be able to see it FMPOV

so i would prefer to lynch the janitor rn

wait a second are you fucking with me

are you literally suggesting lynching a guaranteed power role

[The Janitor]

okay SO

if BEEFSTER’S flight or fight reactions were TRIGGERED because of Mathdino’s post, wouldn’t he ALSO instinctually HIDE his claim instead of BROADCAST to everyone that he is the scum jailkeeper?

Sure I am not INTIMATELY FAMILIAR with Beefster’s QUIRKS but I assume a BASELINE where people are not SO bad at scum they risk their tean’s chances their FIRST POST just because they though town WANTED them to claim ( ⚆ _ ⚆ )

Is my baseline INACCURATE for Beefster?

also that dosent answer my question -____- - not knowing Beefster does NOT make the reasoning itself invalid （￣へ￣）

It's certainly possible he'd be more inclined to hide his role but it's not exclusive. But I don't see why town would blurt out their role, either.

@simyk I didn't want to question a NAI thing, I wanted to question something I found weird.

[Iconeum]

Let's do this!

[Iconeum]

VOTE: A50 for being salty I got the nr1 spot with nr1.

[The Janitor]

SIMYK is an alt yeah
so is the janitor

janitor the problem is that you seem more focused right now on tearing down information than building it
the point of early game is to go from low information to high information

i literally provided calculations proving that in this setup, there are people who are more likely to be scum
we have information, both from the draft and from 5 pages of content
but instead of commenting on it you've just questioned reasoning that i made in my first post
which i did specifically to produce more information.

Questioning you is the first thing that comes up in me and doesn't it provide a discussion and therefore info?
I'd rather tend to the more bigger posts when I get behind a pc. I'm phone posting now. I've skimmed through the thread, there's more to comment on, such as Beef, but this was the first thing that popped up in me... I wasn't ready to TR someone based on an assumption.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I don't see it as scummy.

E-eh??? Σ(‘◉⌓◉’)

You JUST said this!

and SURE it's not EXCLUSIVE but you have to CONSIDER what's more likely and what's LESS likely - scum is more likely to be RETICENT and CAUTIOUS and THUS would have a STRONGER instinct to NOT react so violently at ONE post so that is why I see it that way! (-᷅_-᷄๑)

[Iconeum]

I think everyone so far is town

I hope ur town so I don't have to try and get you lynched again (and fail miserably)

[Mathdino]

guys it doesn't make any sense for beefster to be lying

he'd just get fucked in massclaim

i doubt scum-him gets jailkeeper and thinks "oh boy lemme just pretend to be a VT instead of using my claim as a get out of jail free card later"

beefster is almost certainly vanilla

wouldn't mind if he ate vig tbh

Edit: you're in luck because lovebird is town

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

i doubt scum-him gets jailkeeper and thinks "oh boy lemme just pretend to be a VT instead of using my claim as a get out of jail free card later"

That's what I would do.... ¯\_(⌣̯̀⌣́)_/¯

[Mathdino]

then you'd get fucked in massclaim when it turns out there are 0 tracker/jailkeepers above you...

this is pretty simple shit guys...

[The Janitor]

I don't necessarily find Mathdino's actions scummy per second... It just bothered me as a weird way to get a TR. Which isn't all too scummy in itself

Would Beefsters JK claim get him free tho? Could still be a scum Jailkeeper. Or am I too tired to process all that correctly now?

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

then you'd get fucked in massclaim when it turns out there are 0 tracker/jailkeepers above you...

this is pretty simple shit guys...

Scum can fakeclaim if theyre above BEEFSTER and that's ALMOST LITERALLY what they did in past games...

If you're SCUM and you have a ROLEBLOCKING role you DON'T claim it (*´ー`)

pedit: no your right at a surface level...

[Iconeum]

VOTE: Iconeum

1 is actually very scummy to pick for starters. I think scum are within the lowest picked #s (1,2,3,4,5) but no 2 scums would have picked the same #.

but if you're wrong about iconeum


.....who can it be now?

I don't like this

you guys realise most of my setup spec is done from the armchair

I'll just assume Math's thing is right

p much exactly this

Big one for me: are scum not chosen randomly?

I don't like this

anyway, every game, someone asks "what if scum WIFOM'd the draft???"
and every game, it turns out that no, scum actually does want power roles, they did not WIFOM the draft and pick the same numbers
the only person in this game i think would do that is A50

This just hit me like a brick

Also assume Saske is town by draft because scum would never let someone pick such a high number?

WIFOM, and I don't know what you are trying to do here...

[Almost50]

in fact the general sentiment of "oh well that's all a load of WIFOM" is just bad and in my experience comes from scum more than random

I agree, but I don't want to sound like I'm blindly following you, so here's what I had in mind:

Scum would have probably picked lower numbers (3 different ones).

Iconeum picked 1
You and The Janitor picked 2, so one is scum and the other is town
the worst picked 3, so he's likely scum

But -of course- scum would not want to appear so obvious, so while they will try to be at the top of the draft priority they want to (a) obscure it, and (b) avoid having town picking the same number(s). So..

One of Beefster/Taly is likely scum because I think at least one of the top 3 suspects is just a townie who tried to fuck with the Mafia plan

Then come Lalendra

and if Scum are really really cunning then I have the trio who picked 6 as "back up suspects" if you will (again, just one of them).

I would agree Saske is most likely town based on that strange pick (who the hell picks 413 unless (a) they wanted to make sure they remained powerless, or (b) expected nobody to pick a certain role and wanted to go for that (which is still farfetched because while the pick guarantees nobody else would have picked the same number it also guarantees she will come after everyone who picked a unique number)

So, anyway I want

ed

to examine Iconeum > The Janitor > the worst > Beefster/Taly > Lalendra > Ausuka/Lovebird/brassherald

FTR, Mathdino should have been tied with The Janitor, but I decided he is likely town because of my role (he is above me in the draft, and I think I know what he would pick/have his team pick if he was scum), and that's all I am willing to say for now.

[the worst]

@Spyco

First was literally a shitpost/in joke with A50. Refer his response.

What don't you like about the others? compare to Math's setup explanation analysis at the start and tell me why mine irks you more.

[Almost50]

@Dino: FINALLY! But I think we should start with the lowest single # (i.e. Iconeum) and move from there.

finally what?

from my perspective janitor is effectively a single, and if you're townreading me you should also be able to see it FMPOV

so i would prefer to lynch the janitor rn

I mean, I can follow that, no problem. I just needed to post my thoughts in details before I just sheeped you into a different wagon.

[the worst]

THE A50 SOD1 SOFTCLAIM YESSS

[Almost50]

Finally WHAT? And WHY are you ignoring me (●o≧益≦)o

pedit: I am NOT an alt (╬ Ò ‸ Ó)

HOW MANY BLOODY TIMES DID YOU PLAY ME? YOU STILL DON'T KNOW HOW I DO MY CATCH UP?

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I would agree Saske is most likely town based on that strange pick

if you're TOWN and TOWNREADING ME shouldn't you be ENGAGING me when I am ASKING you?

Finally WHAT? And WHY are you ignoring me (●o≧益≦)o

pedit: I am NOT an alt (╬ Ò ‸ Ó)

HOW MANY BLOODY TIMES DID YOU PLAY ME? YOU STILL DON'T KNOW HOW I DO MY CATCH UP?

E-eh? I have NEVER played with you before （；￣ー￣）

You are RESPONDING to posts that come AFTER my question so I am assuming that you're just ignoring me but if you're not I can wait...

[Mathdino]

great the A50 i know is back

your post is half horse-shit and half "stuff i was just about to say"

gonna break it down

Scum would have probably picked lower numbers (3 different ones).

i disagree with this, i think scum usually goes for 2 lower numbers and 1 larger one (to get a "guaranteed" singleton)

But -of course- scum would not want to appear so obvious, so while they will try to be at the top of the draft priority they want to (a) obscure it, and (b) avoid having town picking the same number(s). So..

One of Beefster/Taly is likely scum because I think at least one of the top 3 suspects is just a townie who tried to fuck with the Mafia plan

honestly scum just wants a couple things
- get as many power roles as possible
- fuck over town's ability to beat them in the draft
that's why the 1-2 punch is so effective -- one scum bombs town with the 1, while the other either takes a likely PR with 2 or bombs another townie

that said, i literally AM the townie that tried to fuck with the mafia plan. no one else has claimed they did so. TW chose basically randomly, and idk janitor/iconeum's logic. i explicitly didn't want a PR and figured 1 townie and 1 scum would choose 2 based on previous game data.

I would agree Saske is most likely town based on that strange pick (who the hell picks 413 unless (a) they wanted to make sure they remained powerless, or (b) expected nobody to pick a certain role and wanted to go for that (which is still farfetched because while the pick guarantees nobody else would have picked the same number it also guarantees she will come after everyone who picked a unique number)

this is a good representation of my logic on SIMYK (don't call her Saske she doesn't like it)
that said i think ircher is very much in the running
11 is low enough to beat crazy high picks (there's usually 1 or 2 of those in this setup) and high enough to be a likely singleton

FTR, Mathdino should have been tied with The Janitor, but I decided he is likely town because of my role (he is above me in the draft, and I think I know what he would pick/have his team pick if he was scum), and that's all I am willing to say for now.

really dashing my hopes of getting through an open game without more than one person softclaiming (or worse) on D1 but ok

iconeum can be scum based on this page alone

but i'd still prefer to lynch the janitor

[Almost50]

if you're TOWN and TOWNREADING ME shouldn't you be ENGAGING me when I am ASKING you?

Not necessarily. Sometimes I find someone too hard to communicate with, so although I TR you I've decided not to argue with you because we will clog the thread with a "my read/way is better than yours" kind of nonsense.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

That's NOT the way I play (*´ー`)

[Almost50]

i literally AM the townie that tried to fuck with the mafia plan. no one else has claimed they did so.

And I will hereby confirm I was trying to land a certain PR/ability indeed, so was actually trying to AVOID picking the same number as someone else.

[Almost50]

but i'd still prefer to lynch the janitor

If you insist...

VOTE: The Janitor

If I can't get my #1 I can settle for my #2