Open 521: Jungle Republic (Alright. We'll call it a draw)

[Yggdra Union]

Well <_<

Few comments.

I had no intention to lynch Aero Day 4. I just wanted a reaction from aero and lynch om's slot.

Also, initially we claimed maf to draw a cc. However it became painfully obvious to us that aldus was the second wolf and boom as last mafia after us claiming mafia. LF was obvtown from that intro and elle was still our townread even though we waffled like hell time to time.

So we decided not to retract and hope for wolf to kill boom the "confirmed town."

It was either raising town's chance to win or face a draw.

Our reads were basically confirmed the moment we died and DP's last post of D4.

[Yggdra Union]

Also what krazy should've done was CLAIMING MAFIA instead of self-hammering!

[1baldeagle1]

Aww, good game guys, this was fun.

I was right about Om being a werewolf, but tbh, I wasn't expecting Ald to flip werewolf. The Werewolf team would have had a better chance of winning if SV didn't get lynched.

[1baldeagle1]

Mafia QT

[Alduskkel]

I would have always killed you YU unless someone ELSE had claimed Mafia.

[DoctorPepper]

I figured I'd get lynched after Ald if I called him out on his Woilf claim, so thanks for the draw

[elleheathen]

AHA! lol

That was rough at the end there. First time as town that I had to be really careful not to be tripped up - because I felt like everyone was leading me. Ahaha. Glad I stuck with my gut, though.

Good game guys - and thanks Mhork.

<3

[LlamaFluff]

I think its Ald and OOTN as wolves.

Mafia is probably Boom

Was reading the situation right at least.

[Alduskkel]

I actually had scumreads on Gnomeo and OOTN before I even got my role PM. Man was that awkward.

[theaceofspades]

yeah Ald you replacing saved the wolves' bacon.

YOu were way less scummy then gnomeo and that slowed us down quite a bit....

I felt good about my claim at the time but now I kinda wish I'd waited out one more day as I had originally planned. But it seemed like nobody was taking the hint and I panicked a bit.

I wish you'd backed off faster union. but it seemed like you were still after me.

Also. For future reference guys. My reads are awesome, always sheep me k? I think I called every scum this game, I feel good about that.

[TheIrishPope]

Ooooooh wtf was up with this game
Multiball, never again

[Alduskkel]

So what was this about, then?

It really isn't but thanks for ruining my plan bro

[Leafsnail]

Draws are anticlimactic and don't feel like the right way to resolve situations like this (where neither side really wants to kill because it lowers their chance of victory). Would it be better to change the rules so that either the town is forced to lynch or the wolves are forced to kill in future?

[Alduskkel]

I would have been very unhappy if I had been forced to kill. And you can't force the Town to lynch, since they can't lynch without the aid of the Mafia or the Werewolf.

[Leafsnail]

If lynching were compulsory then there would be no problem getting mafia co-operation in lynching the werewolf, since mafia would no longer have a no lynch option to push for. And it would have been unfair to inject these rules into an ongoing game, but if you knew in advance that you'd be made to kill then it wouldn't be.

[Leafsnail]

My suggestion would be

- If there's a no lynch then a no kill the town has to lynch
- If there's a no kill then a no lynch the wolves have to kill

[TheIrishPope]

I was warming up to Yggdra because I knew they were some sort of scum. My plan was to stay alive (they wouldn't kill me so higher chance of survival) to fuck them in LyLo lol

[Yggdra Union]

I was warming up to Yggdra because I knew they were some sort of scum.

Yddra Union has died Night Four
He was a

Vanilla Townie

[TheIrishPope]

Yeah I mean I thought you were scum but oh well

[Lord Mhork]

Eh I don't really enjoy compulsive actions personally. They might prevent a draw, but in this case the draw was the best situation without forcing one of the factions to make itself lose.

[Leafsnail]

I don't think it would really force anyone to lose, it would just force them to make a decision and have a chance at winning.

[Alduskkel]

I don't understand how you expect to force the Town to lynch in this situation.

[Lord Mhork]

I believe he's talking about the pluralism lynch, which I personally really don't like.

And you force people to take risks they wouldn't necessarily want. A lynch here, for the standpoint of town, must be wolf or they lose immediately. Scum must hit town and hope wolf kills the other one or wolf and try to win LyLo, and wolf has to lynch scum or town and then successfully hit scum. It's all really messy and since they all have pretty heavily different goals, there's not gonna be as much working together, especially in a 2:1:1 situation where no faction has enough sway.

The only thing you could argue about would be to force the wolf to kill, but forcing kills is tacky and he would have a 66% chance of losing if I forced him to kill after a no lynch. That's hardly fair to him.

[Leafsnail]

Well you wouldn't necessarily need a plurality lynch in this case, at least not any more than you would in any other game. With the option of no lynch gone the mafia and town would both want to lynch a wolf, so a hammer could go through fine. As far as I can tell there are no Jungle Republic gamestates that would completely lock the vote (other than 1 townie, 2 mafia, 2 werewolves, but that should really be called as game over anyway because the town can't win).

And yeah, sometimes you have to take an action that has a less than 50% chance of you winning, particularly if your faction is losing. But that doesn't mean you should be allowed to shy away from the decision - you should be made to shoot for your small chance of victory, because a small chance is still a chance.

To bring up a similar example, at 3 player lylo, the town has to lynch, even though they have a 66% chance of losing based on the result. Is that unfair? Would you let them call it a draw if the mafia had no kill?

[Lord Mhork]

In LyLo town isn't required to lynch. However not lynching reduces its chance of winning to 0% whereas a lynch increases it to 33%.

The 66% chance of losing by killing is worse than the 0% chance of losing by taking the draw. It's a perfectly reasonable alternative.

And with the 1:2:2 setup, it isn't called because the moment town dies, werewolves lose. It's a tricky gamestate, and I'm actually rather pleased at the amount of dynamic interactions this setup brings. I mean, claiming scum is actually a reasonable strategic option here. It's so interesting.

In any event, a draw is better than a loss, so don't all three factions have an incentive to go for the draw when none of them have a strong chance at winning?