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Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:24 am
by JamSV
Are we agreeing it's Looker + BM then? I truly feel much safer about the Looker vote compared to a BM vote. 100% certainty beats anything less than 100%.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:10 am
by 72offsuit
In post 1250, JamSV wrote:
Are we agreeing it's Looker + BM then? I truly feel much safer about the Looker vote compared to a BM vote. 100% certainty beats anything less than 100%.
?
I know BM is scum.
I think you are town.
I think looker is scum.
Why would i vote for looker over BM?
Unless TTJT wants to kick between the harder looker/jam pair, im kicking BM.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:11 am
by 72offsuit
In post 1250, JamSV wrote:
Are we agreeing it's Looker + BM then? I truly feel much safer about the Looker vote compared to a BM vote. 100% certainty beats anything less than 100%.
Prove to me you are town and vote for BM.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:12 am
by 72offsuit
Actually jam is probs scum
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:16 am
by 72offsuit
I can only be teamed with jam and looker.
If jam is town, that by definition means i cant be scum with him.
If jam is town he knows looker is scum.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:17 am
by 72offsuit
Actually scrap that. !town jam doesnt know if bm or i r scum.
From his PoV it could be looker and me.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:31 am
by 72offsuit
No hammers please. Theres some garbage logic being posted here. Its 1:30 am, im off to sleep.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:36 am
by 72offsuit
Actually how would the game be over if it was me + jam?
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:43 am
by 72offsuit
@ Mod
Can we please clarify jams post?
My read is that was a really obvious formatting error and he did NOT self vote.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:45 am
by JamSV
In post 1258, 72offsuit wrote:@ Mod
Can we please clarify jams post?
My read is that was a really obvious formatting error and he did NOT self vote.
I'd like to second this. I didn't even notice I did it until BM pointed it out.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:47 am
by JamSV
In post 1251, 72offsuit wrote: In post 1250, JamSV wrote:
Are we agreeing it's Looker + BM then? I truly feel much safer about the Looker vote compared to a BM vote. 100% certainty beats anything less than 100%.
?
I know BM is scum.
I think you are town.
I think looker is scum.
Why would i vote for looker over BM?
Unless TTJT wants to kick between the harder looker/jam pair, im kicking BM.
I certainly trust TTJT's reads as he's conftown. However, as you said, I know Looker is scum. I can't say the same for you or BM, so of course I'd much prefer a Looker hammer.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:54 am
by Nahdia
72offsuit wrote:@ Mod
Can we please clarify jams post?
My read is that was a really obvious formatting error and he did NOT self vote.
This probably should be in my rules going forward, but I'll clarify it here.
I do not count votes that are inside broken quote tags or otherwise blatantly not intentional.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:48 am
by JamSV
If TTJT also comes to the conclusion BM is scum. I'll vote him then 72.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:01 am
by Battle Mage
I think it's probably debatable. He didn't mean to self-vote, so it would be harsh to count it. But the Mod would have to be impartial and count votes as they fall. Making a subjective judgement about what a player intended, where it relates to win/loss would be setting a problematic precedent. I'm sure when I've seen this situation come up before, the vote counted.
However, in a sense it doesn't
really
matter what the Mod's judgement would be. What matters is, despite the possible ambiguity, if I was scum with either 72o or Looker, I'd 100% have gone with it and taken a controversial/debatable win given the seemingly unanimous verdict I'm scum (which as noted, should have rung some alarm bells anyway if you thought I could be scum in this spot).
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:08 am
by Battle Mage
In post 1238, TheThirteenthJT wrote:@looker what made you doubt my claim btw? It's just weird.
So I want to give my scumrankings as to were my mind is. I am also doing ISo reads in will be for the next couple days so don't expect my vote anytime soon.
Scum
72- for reasons continuing from day 2. I had you as confirmed scum. Only doubt I have on you right now is my own personal selfsoubt.
BM- I know you and 72 can't be a team but I see you as the second scummiest player here. I looked over your ISO and you barely looked at Looker meanwhile interacted with Jamsv all game. You and Jamsv I want to rule out but at the same time the bussing each other side a big possibility.
Jamsv I've described your play as weird and to me very bold for scum. You made yourself a target day one and for no reason. Thought you would have been a PR and we're trying to save yourself after almost being universally town read
Looker is my weakest read. I have not liked their vote progressions at all throughout the game especially that Raya/duns vote. At the end I feel like I have the least content from them to analyze.
I'm basically done for tonight.
If you were to rule out me and Jam that would be immensely helpful, because it brings you down to the same possible solves as me. I'm currently thinking votes today will ultimately tell us who 72's partner is without me having to go back and do too much reading. Scum presumably NK you tonight, so would be good to get as much insight from you before lynching, assuming we even make it to tomorrow...
In terms of my approach towards Looker, it isn't hugely relevant now, but you can look at any of my other games with him, and I've done the exact same thing. It's a policy move, rather than specific to this game. Open 784 just finished and would be a good example. Dunnstral did say the same thing too, and flipped town.
Your top scumread is scum anyway, so that's a good start!
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:14 am
by Battle Mage
In post 1243, 72offsuit wrote: In post 1200, JamSV wrote:There's something important to note. At the moment, TTJT is conf town. Unless if Looker wants to pop up and counter claim. Taking this into account, there are some things to realise. There are 6 scum teams in a vacuum.
72offsuit + BattleMage
72offsuit + JamSV
72offsuit + Looker
BattleMage + JamSV
BattleMage + Looker
JamSV + Looker
There are a handful we can eliminate with logic.
JamSV + Looker isn't the scum team. We could have swooped in on 72offsuit's vote on BattleMage, or BattleMage's vote on 72offsuit and won the game, by both of us voting for the same person, taking it to 3 votes, then winning by having an equivalent number of town + scum. This didn't happen, so we can rule out that potential scum team. Similarly, 72offsuit + BattleMage aren't the scum team. They would have hammered Looker after I voted for him, unless if they haven't gotten around to it yet, but I'm more of an optimistic person. That strikes off another potential scum team.
This means, no matter what, one of 72/BM are scum, and me or Looker are scum. As such. I'm willing to go down the lines of Looker himself:
Hammer priorities:
- Looker - 100%
- 72offsuit - 0%
- BattleMage - 0%
- TTJT - negative 100%
I'm not voting for anybody but Looker today, I'm going to disregard everything else anybody says to do with moving my vote. Before taking into account quality and town-iness of both of our plays in D2 (+ D1 for myself), this game comes down to two 1v1s, Looker vs myself, BattleMage vs 72offsuit, so of course, its only natural that I wouldn't move my vote. We then look at post quality during D2. Out of me and Looker, who was trying to get more information? Myself. Who was hiding information and their explanations of their reads? Looker. That's the very quick, I'm on the toilet posting this, explanation of both mine and his playing during D2. Common sense says Looker will now end up voting me, fair enough. I therefore encourage TTJT to note vote for either of us until 72offsuit and Battle Mage vote first, to limit bussing.
For what its worth, the likelihood is, Battle Mage is the partner, however I'll wait for TTJT to weigh in as to whether I'm correct or not before D3 occurs.
Finally, the last thing I'm going to say for a little while.
GG. Town wins.
!scumMe leading with a vote makes ZERO sense. !ScumMe proveds town with FREE INFO. It is a literally ----- EV play with a clear.
I'm town, it should be painstakingly obvious.
This is particularly ridiculous. Of course it makes total sense for you to do that as scum - you 'open-wolfed' with your hammer yesterday and realised you would be on the backfoot today regardless, so you came out firing at me in the hope of capitalising on the suspicion around me from Day 2. No downside for you as scum, only upside as it gives you a bit of momentum as 'first-mover'. So sensible strategy on your part, but painstakingly obviously scum. No reason for 72o-town to potentially throw the game like that without discussion when you have given no good reason to vote for me, and didn't even bother to try and persuade anyone to follow you.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:15 am
by Battle Mage
Hold on...you're denying 72-Jam is a possibility? Hmm...
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:27 am
by Battle Mage
In post 1241, 72offsuit wrote: In post 1197, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 1191, JamSV wrote:The issue when its 3v2 of voting at all, is it actually allows potential for both scum partners to hop on and quick hammer. So I don't know how to take what 72 just did.
In post 1192, JamSV wrote:AKA. Did 72 just hit a scum slot as town or is 72 scum? It isn't town hitting town as scum would win.
I don't have lots of time tonight. 72o pulled a similar move on me in our only other game which went to LyLo (where we were both town and subsequently lost), so it's not completely certain he's scum. That being said, he hasn't actually given any reason for voting me, so I don't think there's any prospect of persuading him otherwise, and it makes my decision a no-brainer!
VOTE: 72offsuit
I think it's highly likely he's scum anyway given the quickhammer on Dunnstral yesterday before I had a chance to check my meta on him, which also prevented TTJT (who is now 100% conftown) from protecting the cop. And the early vote on me, also without discussion, which would throw the game for himself if he was town.
Hard to see why 72o-town would suddenly not care about analysis/discussion, when previously he has been very thoughtful and detailed in his efforts - easily the most I've ever seen him try. Which is NAI in itself, but the lack of consistency seems more like scum who has open-wolfed and taken one for the team, as opposed to town who spontaneously decided they don't care anymore. And #1189?
It then becomes a question of whether it's 72o-Looker or 72o-Jam. Would welcome TTJT's thoughts on that in particular.
I haven't given any reason. Laughable.
You logging in and then logging out and loggin back in as hidden status is obvscum.
Its a lame mechanical tell, but is pretty much 100%. He didn;t even deny it.
1. I did deny it, several times I think.
2. Because it clearly wasn't true, as we discussed at the time.
3. And it also makes no sense to accuse me of lurking/hiding my activity when I was literally actively posting that same minute.
4. Also, even in some fantasy world where I actually had done this, it would be NAI for this game, given I was in about 6 games at that point, and on your theory could have been hiding my presence for any of them.
5. Although as noted, I've never hidden my online/offline status.
Unfortunately for you, your claim that I was hiding my activity so I could avoid posting, 30 seconds before I posted a long and detailed post, is demonstrably false. The fact you're clinging to it as the sole reason for voting for me, is pretty transparent.
Question:
After doing a very detailed analysis of my posts earlier in the game, which highlighted plenty of reasons to suspect I'm town and few to assume I'm scum, would 72o-town vote for me in LyLo for the above reason, without any discussion?
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:30 am
by Battle Mage
In post 1245, 72offsuit wrote: In post 1227, Battle Mage wrote: In post 1221, TheThirteenthJT wrote:This game comes down to 72 and Looker or BM with either looker and jams. I have to do a reread and I'll figure it out. Should have eliminated me last night over Clark in all honesty.
dude i'm town, it's 72-Looker or 72-Jam. either is possible, and it's flippin obvious it's 72o over me. Look at how
Looker and Jam are saying it's me over 72 - one of them is definitely scum and lynches me for the win. Mason-swear.
I know it's a tough spot dude, but if you read what I've said carefully you will see it
.
Horrible Appeal to Emotion here.
No more horrible than your pleading below?
In post 1242, 72offsuit wrote: In post 1198, Battle Mage wrote: In post 1196, JamSV wrote:I'll be courteous though and let them respond and try to persuade me otherwise.
72o-scum for reasons above, plus his paranoia about me suspecting him yesterday when I didn't, and failure to provide an argument for voting me (despite being cogniscent of all the reasons I'm town), beyond a proven-false claim about me lurking.
Also voting patterns indicate 72o-scum more than BM-scum.
Day 1 final wagon was pretty much unanimous, and so 72o didn't need to be on it to get the mislynch. Yesterday wagon was definitely not unanimous and harder for scum to fashion a mislynch, and 72o was on it and hammered before discussion could finish, and despite very clearly trying to set me up as the other mislynch required for scum-win. He only quick-hammered when momentum against me had diminished.
No town player ever says this.
Think about it. for 2 seconds.
.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:32 am
by TheThirteenthJT
I came to a conclusion last night. I'm almost sure now.
This is my first Elo situation so I I hope I don't mess it up. I'll put a final case and see what everyone thinks before voting when I'm fully free tonight. At this point I feel 90% sure of one scum. I'm willing to take the chances on it and bet the game. If we lose I'll gladly take the loss.
Everyone final scum pairings you'll bet the game on?
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:40 am
by Battle Mage
In post 1246, 72offsuit wrote:TTJT, consider my leading with a vote, with a clear in play.
The only way this makes sense is if you think I am a super gambit-y player.
I have like 10 games on here.
Look through them, and show me a game where I bus my scum partner or fake-claim as scum, or fake-claim as town.
In post 1247, 72offsuit wrote:TTJT, just read BM;s progression on my slot.
Consider if you think his progression on my slot is natural or forced.
I think you will see that it is in fact, not natural, because he is scum.
This is desperate stuff
I think your argument is self-defeating because you haven't done any of those things here? You haven't fakeclaimed, as you haven't claimed? (although there's no leeway in this now, so not relevant). And you haven't bussed a scumpartner? - your 2 main suspects yesterday were Dunnstral and me, both of whom are town.
There's nothing "super-gambity" about leading with your vote here, it's just obv-scum because 72o-town wouldn't risk throwing the game with no reason, especially with a conf-town to work with. You're a better player than that, and you've played more thoughtfully this game than I've seen before as either town or scum, which is to your credit.
It's only late in Day 2 with your bogus case on me that things really fell apart and you dropped the pretense of scumhunting.
If my progression on your slot was "not natural", you could try to show this? Just making the assertion is lazy scumplay. It's a bit like quoting something and saying "Look BM claimed scum here" when clearly I didn't (see Post 1244).
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:42 am
by Battle Mage
In post 1250, JamSV wrote:
Are we agreeing it's Looker + BM then? I truly feel much safer about the Looker vote compared to a BM vote. 100% certainty beats anything less than 100%.
This looks like a slip which strongly confirms it as 72o-Jam. No reason why Jam would make this post when he knows I'm town, and 72o is scum.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:43 am
by Battle Mage
When I questionned this, you accused me of "claiming scum". How does this stack up against that?
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:44 am
by JamSV
In post 1269, TheThirteenthJT wrote:I came to a conclusion last night. I'm almost sure now.
This is my first Elo situation so I I hope I don't mess it up. I'll put a final case and see what everyone thinks before voting when I'm fully free tonight. At this point I feel 90% sure of one scum. I'm willing to take the chances on it and bet the game. If we lose I'll gladly take the loss.
Everyone final scum pairings you'll bet the game on?
BM + Looker.
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:48 am
by Battle Mage
In post 1258, 72offsuit wrote:@ Mod
Can we please clarify jams post?
My read is that was a really obvious formatting error and he did NOT self vote.
In post 1259, JamSV wrote: In post 1258, 72offsuit wrote:@ Mod
Can we please clarify jams post?
My read is that was a really obvious formatting error and he did NOT self vote.
I'd like to second this. I didn't even notice I did it until BM pointed it out.
Belated request from Jam here? As noted, Mod clarification helpful but not hugely relevant - just an attempt to put me artificially back in the frame here.
In post 1262, JamSV wrote:If TTJT also comes to the conclusion BM is scum. I'll vote him then 72.
I.e. Jam knows I'm town and is paving the way to jump on my wagon to build momentum and put pressure on TTJT/Looker to hammer me.