FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Shielder]

so you think scum was overwhelmed and decided to ask in public rather than PT or PM to the mod? if you're serious about pursuing this argument, please walk us through it in detail. i'm gonna go make some popcorn while i wait.

pedit: i think this is probably a waste of time, and probably also a waste of limited post space. but feel free to make your case if you really want.

[Servant Berserker]

Let's put it this way. The question Shielder asked about was probably the LEAST confusing part of this setup. But that's the only question Shielder asked publicly.

so you think scum was overwhelmed and decided to ask in public rather than PT or PM to the mod? if you're serious about pursuing this argument, please walk us through it in detail. i'm gonna go make some popcorn while i wait.

pedit: i think this is probably a waste of time, and probably also a waste of limited post space. but feel free to make your case if you really want.

God, if you think this is a waste of time, remind me to teach you something later on, once I know who tf you are.

No, we're making huge headway here. I might be the literal only person in the town convinced you are town right now. don't mistake my loudness for you being in a good position.

This exchange is positive because we're getting to a level of conversation where I think people can look at this and see where I am pointing. Especially with Moon Logic over here playing conspiracy theorist.

[Servant Berserker]

As for you, Moon Unit, let's consider something. Why would someone start trying to understand a concept on post 320ish with its EASIEST TO UNDERSTAND METRIC?

Is it because:

A) They are lost and want to find a basis to begin from and then explore outwards, i.e confirm what they think to be true and then move forward

or

B) They are playing 4D Chess and trying to enrapture someone in a conspiracy theory to get them to town read them based on... triple inverted logic that they cannot force that person to have.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'm not making a case, just pointing out what I think was a flaw in Berserker's reasoning for calling you town. I've already acknowledged that despite all the reasons it makes more sense as scum *attempting* to fake a town tell, town can also do some pretty stupid things that make no sense. It's not why I think Shielder is scum, it just doesn't make me feel better about Shielder.

[Servant Berserker]

Horses, not Zebras.

There is only one version of events that makes behavioural sense for the player in the shielder slot, and it's my version. I may lack nuance on details, but I don't lack perspective.

Do you have any

OTHER

reasons why you think Shielder is scum, Moon Runes?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

The last thing I'm going to say on this subject before I retreat to my mind palace is:

Why was that the only question that Shielder v1 asked PUBLICLY if he found the setup confusing? Do you think it's just a coincidence that the only question he asked happened to be one that implied something about his alignment?

[Servant Berserker]

I'm not making a case, just pointing out what I think was a flaw in Berserker's reasoning for calling you town.

I've already acknowledged that despite all the reasons it makes more sense as scum *attempting* to fake a town tell, town can also do some pretty stupid things that make no sense.

It's not why I think Shielder is scum, it just doesn't make me feel better about Shielder.[

/b]

Responding to the Red bit: Are you really out here saying all you are doing is trying to provide a counter argument to my reasons for them being town but you're not making a case? Like... what are you dign then? Just poking and seeing what sticks?

Responding to green: You've not responded to any of the things I've said, you've just doubled down on a conspiracy theory and made more and more confident reference to this being certainly what they would have done when it makes no behavioural or motivational sense.

Responding to Orange: You have other reasons for thinking Shielder is scum then? List them. I want to hear it. Because right now, your current stand point is hopping into a defense of Shielder to provide an unlikely counter argument that doesn't have good odds if only for the sake of discrediting it, but then backing down when challenged to stand up for it. It feels like a hit and run dispersion tactic and I'm not impressed.

If you have reasons to think Shielder is scum, I wanna know them now, Moon Logic.

[Servant Berserker]

The last thing I'm going to say on this subject before I retreat to my mind palace is:

Why was that the only question that Shielder v1 asked PUBLICLY if he found the setup confusing? Do you think it's just a coincidence that the only question he asked happened to be one that implied something about his alignment?

Holy shit Third and Final time.

If this is not the "extent of why you think Shielder is scum"

THEN WHY DO YOU THINK SHIELDER IS SCUM

You mentioned it so it's in your mind right?

Should be easy enough for you to give me a cliffs notes RIGHT THE FUCK NOW

[Servant Berserker]

[Servant Avenger]

Well, piss.

My sudden realization was that Avenger's overenthusiasm for getting voted Master made sense as a townie effort to scare mafia into thinking he had a particularly useful upgrade (on top of already being threateningly loud). My hope was that he would actually get it and flip town and we'd have the opportunity to go back and look at who townread Avenger but found excuses to not vote for him, as I imagine that would be a prime mafia approach to handling him. This possibility (combined with the general opportunity to decisively sort him) was worth the risk he might be mafia himself, so I pulled the trigger. Then it ended up not working out anyway.

I will probably go back and do this anyway, because it could still be useful info, but its impact is lessened by not having his alignment flipped. That investigation is not happening until at least tomorrow, though, as bed is rapidly approaching.

Pedit @Assassin: I can try to stick around, but no guarantees on length.

You can still do this. My alignment is still town and assassin was a deadline vote in. Shielder, Lancer, Alterego, Archer, Beast, Mooncancer, Foreigner were all archetypes of this sort of delaying to one extent or another. You can even contrast it to assassin and Berserker who barely moved.

[Servant Avenger]

Wait, berserker I was just reading the few pages I missed and you think Moon cancer is 100% town?
Why?

[Servant Berserker]

Wait, berserker I was just reading the few pages I missed and you think Moon cancer is 100% town?
Why?

Oh it's slipping now, trust me.

Moon Logic over here running away from these last few pages of conversation and throwing shade like they did is a huge - - - on their internal ranking.

My initial thinking they were town was just the way they handled the convo you rider and them had about Rider not giving his reads list?

God they looked so fucking town then.

[Servant Avenger]

Oh.
It's really late for me, I should go to bed.
I'm reading the shielder discussion. Just weighing it still.

[Servant Ruler]

Before I get into reading the 5-6 pages since day start. AE can I get your thoughts on the eod movement onto Assassin (haven't read how that developed yet either).

I'm specifically interested in what you think it means for the three slots vying for master and the slots that moved votes. I want to pick someone else's brain on the macro.

[Servant Berserker]

Before I get into reading the 5-6 pages since day start. AE can I get your thoughts on the eod movement onto Assassin (haven't read how that developed yet either).

I'm specifically interested in what you think it means for the three slots vying for master and the slots that moved votes. I want to pick someone else's brain on the macro.

Can we get your thoughts before we get the confirmed town's thoughts?

Thanks.

[Servant Berserker]

.... wait I'm so sorry.

I thought It said assassin twice

[Servant Berserker]

I need to go to bed. You're fine. I thought you were asking confirmed town Assassin to answer that macro question before you shared which is a...

no.

but I'm the no.

I WAS THE NO THE WHOLE TIME

[Servant Ruler]

What a wholesome no.

No worries, also I kind of worded that in a weird way that made it seem like I was still going to post about it before AE answered but that is not my intention.

[Servant Assassin]

Oh, this has nothing to do with anything, but now that I am confirmed town, I can say it would have been an absolutely sick strategy to have dueling scum wagons on Day 0. That feels like it would mess people up real bad. (I very much do not think this happened, I think the mafia team wanted out of the limelight). Just wanted to get that silly little irrelevant thought out there.

...I really need to go to sleep.

Read my post before you go and tell me what you think.

... you're getting a rare treat out of me. You're getting to make me Town case someone. I never explain my town reads. NEVER.

I think it's anti town garbage.

But, this is a special circumstance, so.

Well, given circumstances I think it's worth reading. I looked it over and it's very intriguing. Will say I'm far from tunnelvisioned here and want to assess several players before doing anything, time permitting.

I mean you're just one vote, if a particularly loud one.

You know where I stand today. I want to see Caster hit the floor.

Everywhere you look there's - Caster interactions. Shielder is just another example.

Shielder feels very much like what scum was doing while the Master Phase was happening.

People fought over that, and scum setup Shielder as the first vote to the point where it feels defacto.

With that argument in mind, I think we should, no matter what, not go down that road today.

I think literally ANY OTHER VOTE is more information positive than Shielder vote.

I think, tentatively, I am in agreement with this, at least for the first part of this phase.

@Everyone: I do not want the discussion for the next 24 hours to be shieldershieldershielder. Being so singularly laser-focused on a single player is a terrible way of generating information.

I had a sense this morning things might be headed that way, and I want to cut it off before it happens. Discuss other players, and present arguments for who you want to get rid of. I have a few targets instinctively in mind, but I'd like to see who people leap to, given free reign.

[Servant Lancer]

The last thing I'm going to say on this subject before I retreat to my mind palace is:

Why was that the only question that Shielder v1 asked PUBLICLY if he found the setup confusing? Do you think it's just a coincidence that the only question he asked happened to be one that implied something about his alignment?

This isn't intended as an insult to Shielder v1, but the rest of the posts that are there don't give me the impression he was actively trying for TRs.
Shielder v2's posts don't look like that either. What makes you think he's scum trying to confuse interactions and then die, as opposed to LHF?

@Archer keeps ignoring my question about his scumhunting.

[Servant Archer]

@Archer keeps ignoring my question about his scumhunting.

My answer is...
I don't know. Working on fleshing more things out though. Post coming

[Servant Alter Ego]

Before I get into reading the 5-6 pages since day start. AE can I get your thoughts on the eod movement onto Assassin (haven't read how that developed yet either).

I'm specifically interested in what you think it means for the three slots vying for master and the slots that moved votes. I want to pick someone else's brain on the macro.

You're probably picking the wrong brain. The big uptick in activity was scary, but the master buff decision is huge, and is going to tilt the playing board heavily for the rest of the game.

Mostly I'm just relieved it worked out. I was so close to moving my vote to Avenger when Assassin came back. Assassin had been my pick since about mid-phase, I think. The slow roll flavor reveal gave me way too much time to regret my life choices.

I want to go back through all that movement with a calmer mind and compare it to prior stances this morning. I remember only one strong assassin scumread off the top of my head, and that player (Berserker) definitely didn't change their stance. Sounds like you want to do similar. Maybe some notes comparisons in a few hours?

--------------------

I like the discussion pointing up town interpretations of Shielder's behavior. Even though they were one of my scumreads coming out of the last phase, there's a low hanging fruit feel to the stances on them. And also on Archer to some extent. Both deserve deeper thoughts than I gave them when townhunting was my priority.

[Servant Avenger]

Why are some people town reading beast?

[Servant Archer]

Spoiler:

Considering Avenger gets some kind of bonus if he correctly guesses the next person to die, I'm inclined to agree.

Aren't alignments done before the role is selected? It seems a little OP for that to be a two scum combo, and I'm not sure that's the type of thing that can be balanced out? Well I remember we had some FGO experts, so maybe they could help.

This is genuine frustration. The kind of genuine frustration that is context proven by their mass questioning of the rules and trying to grasp it in thread.

Scum can be genuinely frustrated too.

The kind of questioning that makes you look weak and gives up positioning in an anon game and makes you an easy target due to a lack of confidence.

If you are scum, then being an easy target shouldn't really matter...

I guess my question is why does a scum player post this? Is this a gambit to try and gain towncred by refuge in... stupidity? I just don't see the angle here.

Well why not? It's a viable strategy to try to do things like that where you appear to be a really genuine/helpless player to get townread. Perhaps they were able to gameplan a bit in the scum PT beforehand.

So not only does it read genuine, it also has town motivation.

And it also has scum motivation...

Combine this with their surrounding posts complaining about not being able ot use meta, struggling with the master election mechanic this game has and generally floundering (which put them in this spot) I don't care if you're bad scum, there's just no way I can see a scum player deciding to end up here.

I might have to revisit Shielder's behavior pre and post replacement. I don't think the early questioning is too out of hand for scum to do though. Some of his other posts are a little more on the questionable side for scum, but I don't like to use the "too wolfy to be a wolf".

Small comment to make here that this post resembles critical thinking that I would expect a townie to perform if they felt behind and noticed something they thought was weird.

I can see this.

They are doing the thing they are accusing Caster of not doing.

What does this mean?

They are attempting to get invested in the game and find reads, and Caster looks a lot worse in this exchange because I whole heartedly agree that Caster is hopping on wounded prey here and calling it "contrarian" without having any real justification for it.

The reads quoted don't look super bad to me, and I don't really remember how they were being read at the time. I do remember somewhat agreeing with what Caster said though.

A follow up showing cognitive consistency. The townie who was lost has found a piece of meat to sink their teeth into.. and are now branching out into other places to prod.

So was Foreigner related to Caster? I'm not really sure what cognitive consistency means here. I don't really think it's townie that he just chose to scumread Foreigner. Would be more townie if he actually put stuff behind the push instead of "driving paranoia". Well Shielder doesn't seem like that type of player and the next quote helped me see that.
UNVOTE: for now.
Shielder, you were trolling in some of your posts right? I can see rust/different meta, but some of the things you said cannot be those.
I think Shielder1's entrance was NAI.

so you think scum was overwhelmed and decided to ask in public rather than PT or PM to the mod? if you're serious about pursuing this argument, please walk us through it in detail. i'm gonna go make some popcorn while i wait.

pedit: i think this is probably a waste of time, and probably also a waste of limited post space. but feel free to make your case if you really want.

This seems a bit confident in the way scum would be.
Well Berserker seems super townie now too.
1258 oh I remember that. Good song!

Moon Logic over here running away from these last few pages of conversation and throwing shade like they did

How has Moon Cancer been doing that? I didn't think so.

[Servant Avenger]

Shielder appears to be a universal scum read if you ignore berserker.
I'd have preferred to see people back up their scum read or fail to with their votes in that direction.