(1) We lynch Crazy. Continue to NIGHT THREE (A)
(2) We lynch Mafia. Continue to DAY FOUR
(3) We lynch town. Continue to NIGHT THREE (B)
(4) We no-lynch, we send town into what was a winnable position into an unwinnable position. Think of a no lynch here as the same as lynching mafia in the 2-2-1 scenario.
(1) Mafia night kill Jazzmyn/Starbuck/semioldguy. That leaves the next day with 2:1. Kublai Khan shares his target for the night and it becomes between him and one other person. We have one confirmed townie in endgame.
(2) Mafia night kill a Kublai Khan. That leaves the next day with 2:1. Jazzmyn becomes soft-confirmed innocent. We have one soft-confirmed townie in endgame.
(3) No-kill or Jazzmyn blocks night kill. That leaves the next day with 3:1. Kublai Khan shares his target for the night and it becomes between him and one other person by process of elimination. We have two confirmed townies in endgame.
(1) Scum try to night kill Crazy, see no lynch option for day three. Town is now in unwinnable position.
(2) Scum night kill town. Crazy kills someone next day and wins.
(1) There is no night kill. Town pile onto Crazy and win.
Killing Crazy is a sure scum hit and gives us at least one confirmed town tomorrow, leaving us a 50/50 shot in endgame. If we shoot for mafia instead, we have a one in four shot of hitting right. I'd take the 50% chance to win over the 25% chance. Doubling our chances by killing Crazy would be better in this scenario.
Had Crazy not claimed, he still would have a decent shot at winning in these scenarios, since he would be an unknown.
I lean toward assuming this setup for two reasons. (1) Town can't currently win in the other setup, so assuming that setup does me no good; and (2) this setup from the game's start would be more balanced. If you think about it, if we swap Neopi's kill with Monkey's (or any town kill) then the town only had one mislynch which caused the town to lose. If town need to expect a perfect game to win that doesn't seem right to me. Yes, Crazy's kills could have hit scum, but as a serial killer that can't be killed at night he increases his chances of winning by aiming for town since town is the only one who can kill him.
Crazy is either lying (which is entirely possible) or the above is our likely setup.