Mafiascum.net

Given the obscure and novel nature of the role, it would both have to be a brilliant fakeclaim and an absolutely terrible one, because coming up with something like that as a gambit would take incredible ingenuity, and yet... he's made it on day two in a large. Which completely screws him down the road if he's scum.

sottyrulez wrote:

Consigliere

It's all fine and dandy talking about sens claim but what's your read on that player slot? We had a town read on sens before the claim and we're happy to take his info and roll with it. Of course we should keep thinking for ourselves but it basically comes down to your read which I don't think you have given.

Really given the timing and the manner of the claim by sens I'm not seeing scum motivation. Unless you want to argue that most if not all scum were on Mist's wagon.

sens did not set off my scum radar like the other players I listed earlier...but I wasn't leaning town towards him either, or, at least I wasn't looking at him in the light I did Guderian's or Wraith's play thus far...Once I got something definitive, I try to slough off the fluff and focus on that...so when he claimed Lisa, that was (and is) my main focus. So to answer your question, no he was not on my suspect list UNTIL the claim happened and I thought about it for a bit and what both sides of that claim would mean.

***DISCLAIMER FOR THOSE THAT NO LONGER WANT TO HEAR ABOUT MY SENS' FAKECLAIM THEORY AND/OR WANT TO BE DISTRACTED BY IT...STOP READING HERE***

The Fonz wrote:Given the obscure and novel nature of the role, it would both have to be a brilliant fakeclaim and an absolutely terrible one, because coming up with something like that as a gambit would take incredible ingenuity, and yet... he's made it on day two in a large. Which completely screws him down the road if he's scum.

I'm of the opinion that it is brilliant. Now that the cop is dead, a sensor scum play out of sens to take the heat off a potential good majority of scum on the wagon would mean the town is easily looking at 3-4 mislynches...There's like a zillion characters in Simpsons so the majority of players (townies) would be like "Yeah I'm miss Krabappel" and we're in "Eh...Worst case it's just a townie" land...If we went 3 or 4 nights off the wagon in a row, the steam would pick up in the "the odds are just getting better and better we hit mafia" train...and there would be no investigator due to the cop's death to be like...Whoa hold the phone.

3-4 mislynches off the wagon is 6-8 dead players....at the sacrifice of possibly 1 goon (sens) when finally caught on...and then we're back to on the wagon which there will be nothing definitive cuz the cop is gone....so my read is that if it WAS a scum play...We're at potentially 10 or 8 to 6 before we start catching wind.

I don't see the terrible part of such a play at all I guess.



Either way...officially, I'm putting the theory to bed since it is very apparent that nobody else thinks it is plausible based on response....but I don't mind riffin' about it...I'm always good for chitchat.

The problem I have with your theory is that you don't even seem to believe that it's the most likely situation. You just think we should lynch Sens because there's some possibility that he could be faking.

If Sens is lying about his role, the only chance he has at surviving for very long is if he actually did tell us the right number of scum on the mist wagon, which is extremely unlikely that scum would willingly give up that kind of information. Otherwise, it's going to become obvious that he lied when the numbers don't add up correctly, and scum generally don't make a move that will guarantee their death unless they were already pressured to claim.

ribwich wrote:The problem I have with your theory is that you don't even seem to believe that it's the most likely situation. You just think we should lynch Sens because there's some possibility that he could be faking.

If Sens is lying about his role,

the only chance he has at surviving for very long is if he actually did tell us the right number of scum on the mist wagon,

which is extremely unlikely that scum would willingly give up that kind of information. Otherwise, it's going to become obvious that he lied when the numbers don't add up correctly, and scum generally don't make a move that will guarantee their death unless they were already pressured to claim.

RE: The bold: Not really, because we wouldn't discover that for many many days lynching off the wagon...which is the logical play given his claim.

As for my belief that it is not the most likely situation...Sure, it is very low % that Lisa Simpson is dirty...(and I may be biased because as I've stated before, I've actually PLAYED in a game where Lisa was dirty)...BUT...It is low % in a way that epic disaster will be brought upon the town if that low % turns out to be true...IE: I'm telling you now...If he is scum, the town IS going to lose this game. It is all set up like Dominoes the way I see it playing out.

Trust me...I want him 100% to be exactly what he says he is...Because that is the way I'm going from the looks of it...and well, I want to win. LOL

You're assuming there's no SK, and any number of other things.

Even if Sens is faking, there's almost certainly scum on and scum off. No harm in finding the scummiest-looking person you can who's off the wagon.

The Fonz wrote:You're assuming there's no SK, and any number of other things.

Even if Sens is faking, there's almost certainly scum on and scum off. No harm in finding the scummiest-looking person you can who's off the wagon.

If you don't mind...SK?

I'm not hip to the lingo.

Serial Killer

@Cons - It will work itself out. Its like any other unprompted role claim. This isnt the time to talk about it.

Also the "poll" idea is horrible. Its just going to creat hotbed of info for scum.

Sens, when are you going to unvote me?

Also Minecraft and weekend parties. That is all.

jasonT1981 wrote:

Wraith wrote:Mist is just a distraction and not worth the lynch. TBH I don't like that Hiraki is trying to divert the wagon on him to Mist.

well said, I think I have mist figured out now... we should not lynch him. I still would be happy with a DBE lynch right now.. Mist is being annoying on purpose, put 2+2 together and you will know why!

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jasonT1981 wrote: why would Gud replace out only to replace in with an Alt account? that makes no sense at all to me... Gud wasnt really scummy and Mist is.. the two play styles in ISO are completely different, why would he replace into his own slot on a diff account and behave like this when no suspicion was on the account in first place... It looks like you are trying to dirty him more to secure a lynch.

Also holy rolefishing for a doc mist.. your tryin to get a doc claim and counter-claim all while trying to say its not what you want... why even bring it up? your playstyle, though maybe funny for you, has for once not got me chuckling.

unvote
vote:Mist

Suspicious?

actually no, at the time of the first post I was thinking Mist was a jester. then looking back at his predecessors' play suggested he was not.. I even noted that in a post. Nice of you to leave THAT out though.

jasonT1981 wrote:hmm, I did an ISO on Guderian and it seems like my initial thoughts on Mist are well off, given Guderian didn't play that way. Mist, who do you see as scum and why?

nice selective quoting though... your arrow down misses out my post...

suspicious?

sottyrulez wrote:.

Jason

Can you lay out, in detail, your case on Hiraki? Don't reply with “look at my ISO” I don't recall you ever laying out all the points against him in one post. Can you do that ASAP please? It might help us understand where you are coming from better than numerous posts about how he needs to hang.

Also, if you find Tragedy to be scum, why aren't you voting for him when you consider Sens info? Hiraki was on wagon, Tragedy was not.

Yes sure... I already did here. No point recitign, I will link to it.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p2732324

and here

jasonT1981 wrote:Hiraki though getting town reads on two suspected scum really flags my attention. I want to pressure Mariyta more though. I believe there could be a connection between the two.

Also then his play today which you already know I am suspicious of.

Why not voting tragedy? I feel we will get more info and connections with a Hiraki lynch.

I believe the polls are unnecessary, Mariyta. Just votes and discussion should be able to do the same job.



Do you have anything to add on to your case on me from day 1? Do you have any comments on my play since then. I'm trying to make this clear so you don't skip it and run out of posts.

I hate to do this considering I feel that I've been doing well in catching up, but I won't be reading up at all tonight. Exausted and have to be up in a few hours. Sorry.

Consigliere. It would never get to three or four mislynches. That is the point. With two we would get suspicious and get rid of sens. Then we would either have the game won (more or less) or indeed have oft a scum and ahve loads of info.

Tragedy wrote: Also holy rolefishing for a doc mist.. your tryin to get a doc claim and counter-claim all while trying to say its not what you want... why even bring it up? your playstyle, though maybe funny for you, has for once not got me chuckling.

unvote
vote:Mist

Suspicious?[/quote]

The precise opposite. Showing excessive sensitivity to people fishing for the doc is a doc tell.

Fonz, he conveniently missed out a post in-between his two quotes of mine where I ISOd the person he replaced and seen nothing resembling what I was thinking.

Its a cheep attempt to dirty me because I have him as a suspect. He has been OMGUS on me the entire game so far.

Mornin' folks...I see your comment boberz and I'll address it at the end in the disclaimer section....More important fish to fry this morning after some investigatin' work.

So my top suspect is this nacho guy. He's baffling me because I'm seeing him on this thread ALL THE TIME...and he's all over the rest of the site on a post search. Day 2 started on the 29th. Since the 29th when the day started, this guy has 2 posts on this thread, and 87 posts elsewhere on the site.

This guy is either intentionally or unintentionally not posting....That's for sure.

So that leads me to really scrutinize his two posts.

One is a quote and nothing else...."of these three" off of sens, which is referring to Hiraki, Nero Cain and DBE from a Diddin post.

The other is a vote.

He never has stated any of his own words on this day.

Should we be looking closer at this?

Is there a peculiarity to a role or possibly a night action that can be played against nacho to cause this kind of activity? And if so, does it further strengthen suspicion or remove it?

I know where I come from a commonly used role is a "silencer"....It's a very different format but basically the silencer limits a person from taking part in a daythread (which usually sucks for the silenced...but the format goes much quicker than here-usually a day is 24 hours-so it isn't as annoying as it would be in this type of game)

Thoughts?


***DISCLAIMER TO STOP READING HERE IF NO LONGER INTERESTED IN SENS FAKECLAIM THEORY"

boberz wrote:Consigliere. It would never get to three or four mislynches. That is the point. With two we would get suspicious and get rid of sens. Then we would either have the game won (more or less) or indeed have oft a scum and ahve loads of info.

Agree to disagree man.

Multiple mislynches is very possible because a town-sided player on the wagon is looking at 4/9 hit probability and off the wagon 4/8....Assuming mafia hits on the wagon at night...What we have is "Crap...We missed on 50/50 or 4/9" mislynch 1...Mislynch 2 we missed on 4/7 or 4/8...Mislynch 3 we missed on 4/6 or 4/7.....All reasonable misses based on the odds, even if against the odds....

Either way...I've moved on to the off the wagon crowd as you can see above...but that is how I see it.

EBWOP: I guess I should say "Intentionally or unwilling" rather than "Intentionally or unintentionally"


Other side news...Tomorrow I intend to gorge myself and bread about 3 of the 7 deadly sins for the Super Bowl...So yeah...Gonna be scarce.

Consigliere, Sotty is currently restricted in their posts. Silenced if you will to only 10 posts today. I don't see that happening to Nacho also TBH.

Sotty provided Meta on Nacho doing this sort of thing earlier when I had a vote on him for his lurking on day 1. However, this is alot more extreme than it was on Day 1.

jasonT1981 wrote:Consigliere, Sotty is currently restricted in their posts. Silenced if you will to only 10 posts today. I don't see that happening to Nacho also TBH.

Sotty provided Meta on Nacho doing this sort of thing earlier when I had a vote on him for his lurking on day 1. However, this is alot more extreme than it was on Day 1.

For the stupid guy translation: Do you read this as dirty activity out of Nacho then? Or unsure?

I trust your opinion more than most based on the character/role you claim and lack of counter.

to be honest, I am not sure. He has been known to lurk as town as posted by Sotty earlier in this game but I don't think I have much experience with a scum Nacho doing this. But I have seen him disappear for days on end in games.

jasonT1981 wrote:to be honest, I am not sure. He has been known to lurk as town as posted by Sotty earlier in this game but I don't think I have much experience with a scum Nacho doing this. But I have seen him disappear for days on end in games.

Gotcha. If a reg did this where I come from, pretty much they'd be getting the "You earned your lynch...You're an idiot if you are town" palabra from this corner and then an apology if there was some sort of reason it happened other than strategy thereafter...or more piling on if it was considered a strategy and said reg flipped town.

But I digress as I've only played with 1 other player in a mafia game in this one...Diddin. (Got the wool over on him good too...Yeehaaa...*shameless gloat*)

I looked at the game that I was in that nacho uber lurked....the linked post is from Sotty, Nacho was avoiding that game while being active all over the site also

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2325254

So, town to me at the minute if I am to go of that game. However

[quote="jasonT1981"

Sotty provided Meta on Nacho doing this sort of thing earlier when I had a vote on him for his lurking on day 1. However, this is alot more extreme than it was on Day 1.[/quote]

A Post restriction? How do you know that?