The Dresden Files - Early Days Mafia (Bastard) - Over

[Sixty]

1-Shot Lover-iser: My recipient can choose two people who will become Lovers.

This can actually produce a two-lynches-in-one result and lovingly put us back on odds (we're ten alive at present). We suggest handing it off to an unclaimed Townread Tonight, who will use it on N5 if we fail the first two lynches.

fatlikepig needs to send this potion to a Townread who he believes will survive Tonight. We know, via jason and ICEninja, that kills are processed near or at the end of the action resolution: ICEninja died N2, yet has two investigation results--Klick and ABR. Therefore, we can assume that even if the potion recipient dies on N5, he will be able to use the potion successfully on N5. However, Trixie should be pretty certain that Townread will survive N4, because dead players

tell no tales

can't Lover-ize people. :3

So: don't claim your target, but send the Lover-izing potion to a Townread who you believe will survive Tonight and Lover-ize the right people. If you have sent the Commuter potion, don't send it to the same person, because Commuters can't be targeted by active abilities.

It's the equivalent of a vig power; we really shouldn't need it, considering we have lynches for

literally every uncleared player

, and one more than necessary for all players who

should

be uncleared, but things could go this way in its worst case scenario:

D4: lynch Shmugen, assume Town flip -> 8:1
N4: Town death; Trixie sends potion to a Townreadx -> 7:1
D5: lynch kortul, assume Town flip-> 6:1
N5: Town death; Trixie's Townread makes jason and Konowa lovers -> 5:1
D6: lynch Konowa, jason dies as well, assume Town flips -> 3:1
N6: Town death -> 2:1
D7: 3p LyLo

This accelerates the game and gives us five lynches (including LyLo). There is no way we don't win this, as long as it is one scum/one kill per night/Trixie's result is true (very very likely is).

[kortul]

I agree with Sixty analysis and plan, but there is one thing - the plan works if FLP is town. Very likely, but still - as far as i understand all those powers are known from previous setups, and fake claim is still possible.

1) If he is scum with a partner among the "cleared" players, they will win after Day 6 lynch.
2) If he is lone faction scum, he will make it to LYLO, and will win or lose based on last moment decision.
3) If he is third party, then "cleared" players are town indeed, but he still makes it to LyLo, and will win or lose based on last moment decision.
4) If he is town, and ABR is last scum, once again they will make it to LyLo and who will win nobody knows.

So i'd suggest to either check FLP somehow (with pidgey power, or any other abilities that we still have), or lynch him during Day 6, if the game continues. That will eliminate the threat of #1, and exclude him from wifom LyLo, bringing there ABR and Jason.

I will wait for Jason explanation of ICEninja doubts regarding his power, but unless Jason and ABR are partners, ABR is more likely to be town based on Jason information from ICEninja.

FLP, can you check with MoI (unless it is in your PM and i missed it somehow from your explanation), once the player have love potion, using it is a night action, or day action? If it is day action, we can speed the process a little.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Vote Count 4.3 - As of post 1277

Shmugen (1) - Sixty
kortul (1) - Shamrock
fatlikepig (1) - Konowa
Konowa (1) - Albert B. Rampage
Albert B. Rampage (1) - pidgey

Not Voting (5) - Shmugen, kortul, sword_of_omens, fatlikepig, jasonT1981

The Current deadline is Sunday, December 9 at 2:00pm EST. Countdown is (expired on 2012-12-09 14:00:00).

With 10 active votes - 6 are required to lynch.

Activity Check - All currently good.

[Shamrock]

Ok, flp is definitely town regardless of the veracity of the sensor result.

kortul was a PoE target for me; with pidgey and ABR off the table he was the only one that I didn't really have a read on at all. But I guess I'd be willing to swing Shmugen today - the main thing making me think Shmu was town was the fact that he jumped on CKD early D3 before it was clear that CKD was going to be the lynch, but I guess it's possible he just saw which way the wind was blowing.

[pidgey]

I could use maybe my power somehow to confirm FLPs

[Shamrock]

I don't think there's any need to use it to confirm FLP's alignment, but what you could do is confirm that the sensor result is true by asking Konowa, Jason, and whichever of Shmu/kortul we don't lynch today whether they share a WC.

Unless anyone can think of something better to do with it.

[Konowa]

unvote;
Vote: Shmugen

No qualms here with this.

[Sixty]

I don't think there's any need to use it to confirm FLP's alignment, but what you could do is confirm that the sensor result is true by asking Konowa, Jason, and whichever of Shmu/kortul we don't lynch today whether they share a WC.

This actually has a few issues we'd rather not explain at the moment.

We need a better question, and this puppyhalf's logic/math problem solving is currently lacking. u._.u

What about "Are fatlikepig, sword_of_omens, Sixty and Shamrock all aligned with the Town?", sent to jason + Konowa + kortul? Unless Europuppy is parsing pidgey's claim incorrectly, nothing says the question needs to be about the three people he sends it to.

[Konowa]

Wait. Unless I'm reading off, aren't we at 7:1 right now (assuming one scum). So that would put us at 6:1 tomorrow.
Does this mean plan in 1275 needs adjustment? Have Vig shoot one to bring us to odds for tomorrow?

[Konowa]

Never mind. Thought only eight alive.

[jasonT1981]

ICENinja seems in favor of a mass claim, I have already claimed but I think it could be a good idea too.

Very interersting data from the sensor, Since I know I am town, for me this leaves Shmugen, kortul and Konowa. Kortul maybe if I had to choose at a pinch between the 3.

[jasonT1981]

Alright, ICE is 95% sure on ABR and thinks Sixty plan is something we should do, he see's it as a 'game winning plan'

[kortul]

What about "Are fatlikepig, sword_of_omens, Sixty and Shamrock all aligned with the Town?", sent to jason + Konowa + kortul? Unless Europuppy is parsing pidgey's claim incorrectly, nothing says the question needs to be about the three people he sends it to.

If the question is not connected with the persons it is sent to, this is also good idea. Game continues to be easy

[Shamrock]

Getting claims from the people

not

cleared by the sensor result might be a good idea. Not sure there is any reason for me/Sixty/sword to be claiming right now unless we start having a reason to doubt the sensor results.

[Shmugen]

It looks like a good plan, though you'll excuse me if I don't vote myself and instead

Vote: Konowa

The only issues with the plan that I see are the assumption that there's one scum left and the much smaller assumption that Bob is never wrong, even in a bastard game.

[sword_of_omens]

FWIW i believe flp's claim...
as far as the accuracy of the sensor result, it might be good to double-check it..

What about "Are fatlikepig, sword_of_omens, Sixty and Shamrock all aligned with the Town?", sent to jason + Konowa + kortul? Unless Europuppy is parsing pidgey's claim incorrectly, nothing says the question needs to be about the three people he sends it to.

i'd be ok with this...although i would switch out Jason's name with Sixty's in the "send to" section.

also, if we do decide to lynch from the pool of Jason, Shmu, Kortul, or Konowa then i would prefer
to start with Jason or Shmu....

[jasonT1981]

^^ Afraid of anymore information coming out?

[sword_of_omens]

^^ Afraid of anymore information coming out

and what exactly does that mean?
what "more info" would come out? Considering you claim to be a 1-shot, it's not like you could QT any one else, right? what i'm saying is that i still don't trust you...and i'd feel we'd have a much better chance at getting a truthful response to the results with someone besides you.

[Shamrock]

Sword -- jason-scum doesn't really make sense. Look at the way CKD pushed him at the beginning of yesterday. Would CKD-scum, coming into a 2:9, begin by immediately trying to bus his buddy? I doubt it. Also, the way he's behaved today makes me think that his claim is legit.

[fatlikepig]

Oh yeah, the Lovers have a shared Daytalk QT, by the way. Think I forgot to claim that bit since I wasn't sure if that was standard for Lovers or not.

Sixty's plan is good; I'd also strongly urge Pidgey to use his power in order to check the Sensor result rather than to check whether or I'm scum. I think my claim should make my alignment pretty clear, and checking the Sensor would be far more useful at this stage (also, if we get a No answer to the question Sixty suggested, then you can probably disregard my result anyway, right?)

VOTE: Shmugen

Kortul, I PMed MOI about that. From what I can tell, it looks like a night action though.

[Albert B. Rampage]

unvote, VOTE: Shmugen

[kortul]

FLP, Sixty suggestion is real good since it checks both the sensor result check and you (you were among sensor "cleared" players). And if there is a limit on the players included in the pidgey question, i think we can safely exclude Sixty, since their reads and ideas were real good so far.

VOTE: Shmugen

[Sixty]

I'm thinking 11:3:2:+1 each

Why?

[Sixty]

2-shot sensor being in Chrono Trigger Resurrection

This puppyhalf was apparently drunk before 11 am. It wasn't a 2-shot sensor, it was an Odd/Even sensor that only worked in a specific Age (so might happen more than once).

[Shmugen]

Unfortunately, I can't claim anything useful with which to save my town-begotten soul. I am Mac, he of very few words. Difficult to roleplay in a mafia game, but my first few posts were abnormally short, so there you go. I am a bulletproof townie so long as the killing source is magical in nature. If Dresden happens to be redscum like Karrin, he most likely couldn't kill me. Now that I've claimed, however, it is probably best for the plan that you finish me. Unless the town comes to the conclusion that whatever redscum remains IS magical, I'm useless.

@Sixty: Tell you the truth, I don't know. I have no reason to believe there are 3+1 redscum over 2+1 redscum. The Chrono Trigger game threw my expectations for scum numbers completely to hell.