Mafiascum.net

In post 1274, Lord Mhork wrote:In LyLo town isn't required to lynch. However not lynching reduces its chance of winning to 0% whereas a lynch increases it to 33%.

Well that's assuming the mafia can kill. If the mafia can't kill, as in Jungle Republic, not lynching will lead to a draw. Would it be acceptable to let town force a draw then, due to their unfavorable chance of winning if they lynch?

In post 1274, Lord Mhork wrote: The 66% chance of losing by killing is worse than the 0% chance of losing by taking the draw. It's a perfectly reasonable alternative.

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In any event, a draw is better than a loss, so don't all three factions have an incentive to go for the draw when none of them have a strong chance at winning?

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That works if you're playing to not lose. But you're meant to play to , and having gamestates that stagnate to a draw complicates this dramatically.

In addition, the mafia actually had a pretty strong chance of winning from their position (above 50% if the werewolves killed, barely below 50% if the town lynched).

In post 1274, Lord Mhork wrote: And with the 1:2:2 setup, it isn't called because the moment town dies, werewolves lose. It's a tricky gamestate, and I'm actually rather pleased at the amount of dynamic interactions this setup brings. I mean, claiming scum is actually a reasonable strategic option here. It's so interesting.

But town can't win in that situation (barring a quadruple modkill), so it's basically just "a guy who can't win gets to decide which other faction wins". That doesn't really make for an interesting end to the game, and I think that's the reason why the town-wolf-mafia endgame is called in favour of the mafia.

I agree that Jungle Republic is a really interesting setup, but I feel that some of the endgames lead to anti-climactic draws, rather than interesting lylo situations where two factions are forced to work together to try and take down the other.

I dunno. I most definitely am not nearly informed enough to be touting any opinions more than my basic gut feelings. However there's always MD for a much better discussion on draws and the like.

I do agree though that the mafia had a great chance at winning, but that was only if they could have convinced town to go along with a plan without outing themselves. Otherwise it would have been a loss. I think mafia had the trickiest position here.

And yeah. Kingmaker things happen. It's one of those facts of mafia that you just kinda gotta go with. It's especially a big multiball thing. The same sort of thing happens when one scum team decides to fuck over the other instead on hitting town targets that might objectively have been better.

over it