Mafiascum.net

↑ Green Crayons wrote:

↑ Heartless wrote:

↑ Green Crayons wrote:You either believe that I had an active, developing read on elle, or you don't. I can give you the reasons, but then if you still don't want to believe me (be it because of confirmation bias, or simple mistrust, or because of your alignment) you can say I am simply retrofitting justifications for my changed stance.

Oh, well then

I don't

. There, how do you like that?

(shrug) Then we skipped to where this was going.

Or, rather, where it already is, and you're seemingly upset that your read of me is what it is, and that it's not going to change just because I tell you some scraps of information. At this point, I'm going to convince you that I'm town by my play and catching scum. And that's about it. That's fine, that's where you and I are at. It doesn't make you stubborn and closeminded. It makes you human who is playing mafia.

We've been interacting for a while now with you getting steadily more suspicious about my play. At this point, continuing a dialog about me is not going to be more productive. I'm not going to pull out a piece of information - truthful, though it will be - that will make you go, "Aha! I see all my suspicions have been assuaged!"

That has never happened to me, on either end of the line of suspicions. Back and forths just go down the rabbit hole if you let the conversation go on for too long. I'm hard pressed to think of a time when that has happened to anyone: just being stopped in the middle of a suspicion-train because just the right piece of thought from the suspectee is divulged to the suspector.

So it's not that I think that you're stubborn or close-minded. I just don't think you're a unique mafia player.

But, hey. Sure. Why not. Maybe this is ~*~ the key ~*~ to seeing that you have been wrong all along. Here you go:

Spoiler: D1 elle read

1.

My first hints of doubt on my elle suspicions actually began before I started questioning her. In Post 491, I noticed that her reads list was quite similar to mine. I put a lot of stock in when other players see the game in the same way I do, so this wasn't a great way to start out into embracing elle suspicions. Regardless, as I noted in that post, elle's read list alone wasn't going to outweigh my suspicions of elle.

2.

My elle suspicions reached their apex in Post 484 and Post 485. There were three suspicions: (1) playing it safe; (2) attempting to manipulate others' reads on her; and (3) defensive interaction with Ranger.

A.

In Post 505 I asked elle to directly respond to my suspicion-observations of her posts. She responded (and then some) in Post 513. My Post 553 reads fairly accurately.

B.

I recall making Post 553 and thinking that my suspicions were still pretty solid, but I wasn't entirely satisfied with my first two suspicions (the top half of Post 553) w/r/t elle playing it safe and attempting to manipulate others' reads on her. I don't know what it was that was making me have some doubts, but looking back on it now I think elle's response is pretty town: It's basically a big (shrug) because what else was she supposed to say? That said, I don't know if that was the actual basis for my semi-doubt, or if I'm projecting onto past-GC.

3.

Simultaneously with the above interaction, based on elle's Post 494, there was an offshoot in Post 507 and Post 514.

A.

This was related to my suspicions relating to elle's interaction with Ranger, and I thought that elle was specifically referring to Ranger being town if elle flipped town. This was weird for me because although I had thought Ranger would be more likely to be scum if elle flipped scum, I would think that elle-town's flip of town would show folks that Ranger's case was bunk - and therefore more likely to come from scum.

B.

This particular line of suspicion got caught in my craw, and I followed up in Post 557 and Post 570. And this is where the cracks really began. elle's Post 571 suggested that I was misunderstanding the things she was conveying, and snarky intro aside in Post 573, I was aping her response to make sure I understood it. And then it clicked two minutes later after rereading her Post 494 a few more times with elle's explanation in mind, with my reluctant eureka moment captured in Post 574.

C.

Post 574 deserves special mention because that is when I decided that my own misunderstanding of the basic communication elle was putting out into the thread was also probably affecting my other problems with elle's play. I wasn't convinced elle was town at this point, but I was convinced that my suspicions were less than adequate. For that reason, I voted for a player I did have suspicions of, and those suspicions had already been addressed but not assuaged: dave, in Post 575.

4.

So Page 26 is when my read really started to turn around.

A.

First there is Post 647, where elle claimed VT. I don't think the VT claim inandof itself says much one way or another, but it was the real sense of resigned frustration that came across. At this point, I was thinking elle could just be good at faking it, but it was a good show.

B.

The clincher for me at that time, however, was Post 656 and Post 658. Those posts come from frustrated town who is tired of being badgered and therefore, while sticking to her suspicions as they develop, thumbs her nose at her suspectors. It's not an angle I would think scum would ever jump to in the circumstances, as it made her look contradictory and preemptively defensive and resigned (as in, "whatever, here, have another reason to lynch me, I don't care").

C.

Post 689 and Post 691 also looked like they came from town, sticking to their-not-actually-good-but-what-do-you-want-its-D1 justification for narrowing a pool of suspects. But this was a minor contribution to the shift in my read.

D.

Post 693, Post 695, and Post 696 - though related to Post 689 and Post 691 in substance - constituted a different reason for me to think elle is town. I'm still unclear what, exactly elle is referring to, and I'm not entirely sure it's something that we can dive into. But the matter-of-factly manner in which the information was conveyed, and how of course that aligned with elle's not great D1 theory, and in any event it's beside the point - all of that just reads town.

And that's the rise and fall of my elle suspicions. Do tell, does this make me town?