Mafiascum.net

In post 1274, Quick wrote:Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

In post 1272, mavsfan41 wrote:@VP: I did lots of looking through Gamma’s posts as well. I feel pretty confident that R2R is absolutely town. The day 1 push of R2R does not strike me as a bus’ing of scum and then the day 2 pursuit of R2R absolves him in full for me.

Quick and Puppy coming up a lot and Gamma defends Puppy more than anyone I feel always reading him as town and seeming to defend him.

As for midway bear, 1190 is awkward right? The reads like a refusal to bus with the pedit section bus’ing as fast as possible. It reads almost too close to how Gamma was trying to form a fake claim to defend against Blair’s reveal. Thoughts on this?

VOTE: midway bear

In post 874, mavsfan41 wrote:Blair’s wagon theory does make sense but I would pursue Puppy over GammaGooey here.

In post 1278, votato wrote:

In post 1274, Quick wrote:Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

why are hellbooks and r2r so high up? why is mav so far down?

In post 1275, CantHateAPuppy wrote:
the three players he suspiciously lays easy on imo are mavs/votato/me

In post 1284, votato wrote:we have to pressure midway today. why its so hard to get a wagon going on that guy i dont know, but i feel like its because his buddies are trying not to bus.

In post 1287, CantHateAPuppy wrote:votato defends gamma, pretty neutral at first, then as a stronger town read, then taking gamma's side against blair until blair claims.

the first half of that progression troubles me, it feels like a weak associative, but the second actually feels just a little too strong of a defense for scum/scum. there's a definite direction too with votato moving gamma more and more toward his town column, which i could believe is a real progression

In post 861, mavsfan41 wrote:I’ll be honest, I had a slight scum read on Nauci. Anyone have a hypothesis on why it was her? Looking through her ISO she had votes on r2r and votato. She’s not the only suspecting those two. She also had 851 asking about GammaGooey that went unfulfilled before the hammer.

Looking at the votes on NPOM, I must think there was at least one scum voting there. (Yep, I was on that wagon too, I’m aware.) Quick’s case and post detailing his case I think is extremely hard for scum to fake and for him to learn hard on it, I can’t see him being scum. Blair piggybacks off this but has independent thoughts asking NPOM to scum hunt and town hunt which would suggest she was influenced by Quick’s case but did have her own reasons to suspect him. Atarashi had reason to suspect NPOM but that was very early in the game, so can’t say much about that as he’s disappeared. Dunnstral, R2R, and votato are the others and I’ve gotta think scum is most likely here.

Dunnstral

- I didn’t like the catch up and hammer. Read to me like a “sure, why not” vote. Reading the catch up, I couldn’t see conviction in a reason to hammer with the thought of NPOM flipping scum.

R2R

- I’ve gotta go back and reread the interaction between him and NPOM and see if I think this is TvT. I’m leaning a vote here right now with the flip of NPOM. The reason I won’t is cause I don’t trust my reads right now, speaking of which...

Votato

- so I was pretty vocal about reading votato as town. But with NPOM’s flip and looking through the ISOs of the voters’ this one I did have issue with, specifically the development of the NPOM vote. So 310 was awhile ago with the amount of posts this game has, but votato states here he feels strongly about Atarashi and won’t move his vote. He then flips to VP Baltar. Then again on NPOM. Seems like a drastic change from “not moving off Atarashi.” Of all the votes, this one seems to be the most hopping on a wagon. I still read the rest of his ISO as town, but the vote progression from resistance of moving his vote to willingly hopping on the NPOM wagon, I’m having serious doubts here and want a better read here.

VOTE: Vote: votato

In post 866, Gammagooey wrote:I read over a decent chunk of the game yesterday so have some thoughts

I really dislike r2r's chunk of posts here: 637, 702, 781
637 I could definitely see a scum making as a way get away with 'oh yeah I was also scumreading them but it was minor and now that you've pointed out more I'll happily join you on this person trying to lynch me', and 702 tries to make him look like he's trying to get more info out of the wagon when I suspect he'd know that VPB was strongly scumreading him from VPB's #535 through #574 and then uses that in #782 as another reason to vote NPOM.

I still don't like his earlier jumping on of Quick v Blair being TvT (this is the thing that I thought NPOM might have voted r2r for originally along with the VPB wagon stuff, though his response after Blair and I talking about his reason for voting r2r for a bit showed that it almost definitely wasn't the case) and then explaining it with him thinking that they were town separately before that and their pushing each other felt genuine without saying why he was townreading them both before that. It felt more like him using their argument as an easy reason to read them both as town and dismiss their arguing than him really having pre-existing reads on both of them, and I still don't see why he has Blair as one of his top town reads.

If he is scum I also think Blair makes a lot of sense as his partner - I think r2r never really gave a good reason to townread Blair, she hopped off of r2r to vote NPOM after saying the below earlier, she had what I saw as her two previous scumreads (quick and r2r) on the wagon, AND she dismissed Puppy's post voting r2r in 754.

In post 570, Blair wrote:No, I think R2R lied about the vote count for some unknowable reason. I pretty plainly said I'd be okay with lynching him today if I can't have Quick.

But your meta argument is terrible.

VOTE: ready2rock

In post 870, Blair wrote:

In post 863, CantHateAPuppy wrote:man, i was hoping after that atrocious hammer and missing the last few pages that i'd be nightkilled out of this game

i do want to get votato again, came into this thread two days ago to put my vote back there only to find the thread locked

any questions anyone had from yesterday that i missed, let me know and i'll answer

Thoughts:

1. Upon analysis, Gamma can talk more. Need to resolve this slot.

2. There is a lot of speculation about scum being on the NPOM wagon - which is fair, because more than half the game was on that wagon. Unless you think ALL the scum were on that wagon, however, we should probably be looking just as hard at the people who were off of it:

All seven voters from the NPOM wagon are alive today, only four of the people who were off of that wagon are alive today.

I like my odds better hunting in the group of four than the group of seven today. I do not believe it is likely that the entire scum team jumped on the Day 1 mislynch together.

That leaves at least one scum in here:

Gammagooey
VP Baltar
CantLynchAPuppy
iDanyboy

Out of that group, we can hunt for people who seemed to avoid the wagon in anticipation of a town flip. My best guesses there are Gamma and Puppy.

Gamma seemed to be reaching really hard to find a defense of NPOM where there wasn't one in their back and forth with me shortly before the lynch (not saying there was no good defense of NPOM, but the one Gamma chose fell apart upon inspection - even NPOM didn't go along with it). Gamma had very few posts during Day 1, and this awkward conversation made up about 30% of them.

Puppy swooped in to support a counterwagon with a pretty flimsy post shortly before the lynch as well.

Of those two, Gamma seems more likely to flip scum to me.

VOTE: Gammagooey

In post 874, mavsfan41 wrote:

In post 872, votato wrote:

In post 871, Blair wrote:Oh, didn't mean to quote Puppy in that post, but I did want to point out how awful that post was. Is anybody buying that first line?

im not buying any of it. who would want to vote for me

Me. But the Blair/R2R pairing makes waaaaay more sense than you/R2R.

UNVOTE: Votato

Blair’s wagon theory does make sense but I would pursue Puppy over GammaGooey here.

@VP Baltar: where does Puppy’s LAMIST post compare with mine?

In post 491, Quick wrote:Puppy, Blair
VP, Atarashi
votato
Gamma, Nauci, NPOM

Here is another list.

In post 492, Quick wrote:This is more or less my reads at this point.

Atarashi
mav, Gamma, Puppy
Dany, VP, Blair
votato
NPOM
R2R

But I would like to see what R2R brings to the table.

So this is my vote after analysis (seperate from what I have said ITT).

VOTE: NPOM

In post 1284, votato wrote:we have to pressure midway today. why its so hard to get a wagon going on that guy i dont know, but i feel like its because his buddies are trying not to bus.

In post 1293, midwaybear wrote:puppy u didn't really mention gamma that much either

In post 1294, midwaybear wrote:ok mavs vote is wack. He even said it with a question mark
VOTE: mavsfan

In post 1225, CantHateAPuppy wrote:a very small part of me is tempted to say that we should not lynch blair or gammagooey and just let gamma live until n3 so he can shoot blair if he can

but, meh, can't outsmart the counter claims i think