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Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:24 pm
by Umlaut
VOTE: DrDolittle

S_S' vote record (or lack thereof) may be worse but Dolittle's positioning is worse; S_S at least was adamant about keeping the pressure on Marquislot in the face of a replacement and argued against the counterwagon on Gypyx. And something did sort of bother me yesterday about Dolittle that I couldn't put my finger on whereas S_S just seems like himself to me.

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:26 pm
by Something_Smart
Interesting.

I will not say anything until some more people weigh in on what, if anything, we should reveal.

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:55 pm
by Green Crayons
Initial reaction is that this makes Umlaut solid town.

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:10 pm
by Clover Ebi
After reading through all this I believe Umlauts theory has more weight to it than I first thought when reading through. I was honestly very surprised that Marius/A50 went so easily because I know as a wolf I would've probably defended a 1 shot vig claim a lot harder than it seems anyone really did.

But maybe wolves were prepared for such a wagon and because they had the backup are okay with it. Of course anyone can have this theory but I figured typing my thoughts out would be better. In theory, we could give them both pools of 2 for a poe to shoot in and if none die we know there's scum in those 2, but until we have a better scumread this is fine!

VOTE: DrDolittle

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:15 pm
by Clover Ebi
Hm, I went back to look at the vote count to see if any early wolf bussing makes sense, but I had good townreads on the first 3 who voted. While I have mixed feelings on Green/username. This probably requires someone who is better at VCA than myself.

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:16 pm
by Something_Smart
Do you think we should claim which of us has the rolecop/UB slot?

It seems kinda silly to be voting DDL without knowing that.

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:33 pm
by Clover Ebi
I was just putting my vote on who I think would be more likely wolf between the two of you but that does make more sense.

I think claiming isn't needed when we can protect and leash in the vig into 2 pools. It really depends on how much you value keeping a PR alive that could be town or leashing a shot.

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:33 pm
by Clover Ebi
I'm more about finding townreads than getting stuck on this stuff myself haha

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:09 pm
by DrDolittle
I'm the rolecop.

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:11 pm
by DrDolittle
Theorycrafting tomorrow, but in short Rolecop has the highest EV.

Umlauts scum. His theory has a direct contradiction to it

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:11 pm
by DrDolittle
Scum or misguided I can't tell yet

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:16 pm
by the worst
why do I have no opinion about what alignment this makes drdolittle

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:17 pm
by the worst
if it was ss I'd have a stronger opinion

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:06 pm
by Datisi
huh. i was thinking last that "wow, sure hope the uni backup is town so they shoot gypyx and we don't have to waste a day on him." was lowkey disappointed that didn't happen.

looking forward to your theorycrafts, drd

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:13 pm
by Datisi
thinking last night* zzz

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:25 am
by the worst
In post 1288, Datisi wrote:huh. i was thinking last that "wow, sure hope the uni backup is town so they shoot gypyx and we don't have to waste a day on him." was lowkey disappointed that didn't happen.

looking forward to your theorycrafts, drd
mood, except I didn't think this.

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:34 am
by Grumpy Cat
One one hand I don't see how Role Cop is +EV over regular Cop, but on the other hand; scum picking Role Cop over Jailkeeper/1-shot vig/Roleblocker/Vengeful for first pick is very unusual. Doc is
probably
town if he can explain his EV thing.

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:08 am
by the worst
who even needs a rolecop just kill the people who are good at mechanics and scream until everyone massclaims

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:10 am
by the worst
In post 1291, Grumpy Cat wrote:One one hand I don't see how Role Cop is +EV over regular Cop, but on the other hand; scum picking Role Cop over Jailkeeper/1-shot vig/Roleblocker/Vengeful for first pick is very unusual. Doc is
probably
town if he can explain his EV thing.
I think I probably agree tbh it's just..... such a strange first pick for scum in his shoes to ACTUALLY pick, like I don't think marquis was established as a D1 lolbus but also really doubt that scum in draft position #1 would be like "ok cool let's pick a cliché high EV scum role"

the suggestion that drdo is... just scum for having such a cliché scum pick also kinda left me wanting :u who said it again

whatever I'll wait for drdo just talking through my brain thoughts

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:11 am
by the worst
oh it was umlaut. lol.

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:17 am
by Grumpy Cat
Is it even a cliche scum pick though? Isn't 1-shot vig/vengeful/JK/RB better for scum?

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:20 am
by Grumpy Cat
I guess picking JK/RB has problems later on when people start claiming to be roleblocked and people start asking what you picked.

I thought of something though and I'm curious to see if DDL says it.

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:50 am
by Umlaut
Looking forward to the explanation of why Rolecop is a high-EV town role in a setup where any alignment can be any role.

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:51 am
by Datisi
ladies... you're both pretty... why don't we unite our powers... our dashing good looks... and execute the obvscum...

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:57 am
by Green Crayons
In post 1297, Umlaut wrote:Looking forward to the explanation of why Rolecop is a high-EV town role in a setup where any alignment can be any role.
So you don’t think some roles are AI?