Posted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:08 am
Ok so I thought about the game Friday after thread closed and knowing that Skies was the town doctor basically confirms that one of Haschel and duppin must be scum. Too many prs. Ythan and Vp are confirmed at this point so that's good for town to narrow down setup using Poe.
Also I must say I'm surprised skies didn't flip scum. I was really hesitant bc of the newbie vibes from that slot but I was pretty convinced that they would flip scum by the end of the day and probably would've hammered if Haschel didn't. Though if the day had played out longer and skies had come on and said some stuff, I prolly would've backed off real quick cuz that's just how indecisive I can be. I don't think the mislim was anyones fault(for the most part) cuz people were sus for lots of valid reasons and I feel like that was really the only way that day could've ended bc of the doc claim even tho it was true :/
Anyways, I've broken the game down into two cases:
Case 1: one of duppin or haschel gets nightkilled. Im almost 100% convinced the other is scum and we should def lim there today(it'll be "today" once the day starts). I've thought about this multiple times and tho I'm not a god at setups, motion detector and voyeur existing together doesn't sound right even to me. And skies being doc just means there's way too much town power if both are town and both have true claims. If one of them dies, we lim the other cuz that one is very very likely to be scum. I think the probability of both power roles being town is just like somewhere terribly close to zero and I'm not willing to assume that so I say lim the other if one dies.
Case 2: someone besides duppin or haschel gets nightkilled. this means that the scum team kept the other(whichever of haschel/duppin is town) alive to confuse town. Then that means there is one scum in {duppin, Haschel} and the other has to be in {Noraa, Gamma} since vp and ythan r confirmed. I, knowing my role am convinced gamma is scum for this and I feel more comfortable voting gamma than haschel or duppin bc I cannot tell which of haschel and duppin is scum but logically, unless duppin/Haschel is the solve, gamma has to be scum. Realizing that gamma started the skies wagon and pushed so hard on it also makes me feel a bit ~unsettled~ I understand that skies seemed like confscum but I felt like no one was more confident than gamma and that level of confidence doesn't strike me as towny :/
Also I don't believe duppin/Haschel is the solve cuz there's so much wrong with that. Like why would they claim such similar roles? And like just ... no. It doesn't feel right and I just can't see a world where that is the solve. I agree its possible but I'm not really having a hot time buying it. Also like the scum team having a role blocker, voyeur, AND motion detector is kinda just like UH wtf no.
I currently am more comfortable voting gamma as I'm pretty sure the solve isnt duppin/haschel. But my guess for gammas partner is probably duppin bc I remember duppin claimed he targeted gamma two days in a row. And I'm sorry but like ... why tf? Like I could understand targeting Ythan(for his small amounts of sheeping early in the game) or targeting me(for my at the time, classified as "bad accusations" against Reck) or targeting Reck as he was quote, "a lightning rod" and attracted all the prs early on for his play or just about everyone else. But like ... Gamma. Why gamma? I just don't understand why you would target gamma and two nights in a row at that. It just doesn't make sense to me. I could see Haschel/Gamma but that would mean the scum team distanced really damn well this entire game and I mean kudos to them if that's the solve cuz I'm not seeing it.
My guess for the solve is {duppin, gamma}
My reasoning to back it up I thought about for a long time on Friday and reread parts of the thread. Im somewhat convinced in my solve but I'd definitely need confirmation that I'm not missing something crucial or just full on being stupid before I'll willingly start pushing this idea cuz I tend to overlook stuff at times. Hopefully I was not the nk bc I spent a pretty big chunk of time thinking bout the game and it'd be very saddening if I wrote all this for nothing. Dead thread will get this wall if I get nk'ed but I doubt I will since I'm still good limbait and the scum team knows it.
Also I must say I'm surprised skies didn't flip scum. I was really hesitant bc of the newbie vibes from that slot but I was pretty convinced that they would flip scum by the end of the day and probably would've hammered if Haschel didn't. Though if the day had played out longer and skies had come on and said some stuff, I prolly would've backed off real quick cuz that's just how indecisive I can be. I don't think the mislim was anyones fault(for the most part) cuz people were sus for lots of valid reasons and I feel like that was really the only way that day could've ended bc of the doc claim even tho it was true :/
Anyways, I've broken the game down into two cases:
Case 1: one of duppin or haschel gets nightkilled. Im almost 100% convinced the other is scum and we should def lim there today(it'll be "today" once the day starts). I've thought about this multiple times and tho I'm not a god at setups, motion detector and voyeur existing together doesn't sound right even to me. And skies being doc just means there's way too much town power if both are town and both have true claims. If one of them dies, we lim the other cuz that one is very very likely to be scum. I think the probability of both power roles being town is just like somewhere terribly close to zero and I'm not willing to assume that so I say lim the other if one dies.
Case 2: someone besides duppin or haschel gets nightkilled. this means that the scum team kept the other(whichever of haschel/duppin is town) alive to confuse town. Then that means there is one scum in {duppin, Haschel} and the other has to be in {Noraa, Gamma} since vp and ythan r confirmed. I, knowing my role am convinced gamma is scum for this and I feel more comfortable voting gamma than haschel or duppin bc I cannot tell which of haschel and duppin is scum but logically, unless duppin/Haschel is the solve, gamma has to be scum. Realizing that gamma started the skies wagon and pushed so hard on it also makes me feel a bit ~unsettled~ I understand that skies seemed like confscum but I felt like no one was more confident than gamma and that level of confidence doesn't strike me as towny :/
Also I don't believe duppin/Haschel is the solve cuz there's so much wrong with that. Like why would they claim such similar roles? And like just ... no. It doesn't feel right and I just can't see a world where that is the solve. I agree its possible but I'm not really having a hot time buying it. Also like the scum team having a role blocker, voyeur, AND motion detector is kinda just like UH wtf no.
I currently am more comfortable voting gamma as I'm pretty sure the solve isnt duppin/haschel. But my guess for gammas partner is probably duppin bc I remember duppin claimed he targeted gamma two days in a row. And I'm sorry but like ... why tf? Like I could understand targeting Ythan(for his small amounts of sheeping early in the game) or targeting me(for my at the time, classified as "bad accusations" against Reck) or targeting Reck as he was quote, "a lightning rod" and attracted all the prs early on for his play or just about everyone else. But like ... Gamma. Why gamma? I just don't understand why you would target gamma and two nights in a row at that. It just doesn't make sense to me. I could see Haschel/Gamma but that would mean the scum team distanced really damn well this entire game and I mean kudos to them if that's the solve cuz I'm not seeing it.
My guess for the solve is {duppin, gamma}
My reasoning to back it up I thought about for a long time on Friday and reread parts of the thread. Im somewhat convinced in my solve but I'd definitely need confirmation that I'm not missing something crucial or just full on being stupid before I'll willingly start pushing this idea cuz I tend to overlook stuff at times. Hopefully I was not the nk bc I spent a pretty big chunk of time thinking bout the game and it'd be very saddening if I wrote all this for nothing. Dead thread will get this wall if I get nk'ed but I doubt I will since I'm still good limbait and the scum team knows it.