Open 815: Forest Fire Redux [Endgame]

[Lukewarm]

Again, both of those posts were BEFORE you started pushing Hectic.

[Lukewarm]

I don't think you are going to be able to convince me that there was no way any one would think that hectic was a viable counterwagon, when I MYSELF THOUGHT THAT HECTIC WAS A VIABLE COUNTERWAGON.

Infinity, lets vote hectic!!

Every single wagon appears to stall out pretty hard. We gotta get a few people on the same page at some point. You + me + skitter all have hectic in out poe, and I think we could round up the votes from T3/HEM

[Lukewarm]

So whether or not you thought that Hectic was a viable wagon (which is an odd argument to make, seeing as how you pushed him. Why would you push for his elim, even as town, if you thought it was pointless?), given the game state, he was a reasonable counter wagon from my POV.

[skitter30]

Skitt basically johnny was a consensus PoE scumread and monkey replaced him and started being somewhat towny. Prism has gone back and forth for a lot of people especially me but she's probably not getting limmed here. Other lim options are child and I guess your slot/t3? I'd like to get your thoughts but I'm leaning towards voting monkey atp

she literally says she wants to vote monkey right here
and doesn't mention hectic at all

[skitter30]

unclear why t3 would move from johnny to hectic given that monkey had a lot more momentum

And also, I wonder what could have possibly made you think that T3 might move over to Hectic.

hem is towntelling, but if hem is town then-

VOTE: hem
Limming a townread is better than no elim because we still have astump.

i don't know what your point is with this post, it seems like t3 wants hem more than hectic, which is what i'm saying

[skitter30]

I don't think you are going to be able to convince me that there was no way any one would think that hectic was a viable counterwagon, when I MYSELF THOUGHT THAT HECTIC WAS A VIABLE COUNTERWAGON.

it wasn't a viable counterwagon, i literally just showed it wasn't ...

[skitter30]

So whether or not you thought that Hectic was a viable wagon (which is an odd argument to make, seeing as how you pushed him. Why would you push for his elim, even as town, if you thought it was pointless?), given the game state, he was a reasonable counter wagon from my POV.

because i think he's scum ... >.>
i strongly disagree that he was viable at that point

[Lukewarm]

unclear why t3 would move from johnny to hectic given that monkey had a lot more momentum

And also, I wonder what could have possibly made you think that T3 might move over to Hectic.

hem is towntelling, but if hem is town then-

VOTE: hem
Limming a townread is better than no elim because we still have astump.

i don't know what your point is with this post, it seems like t3 wants hem more than hectic, which is what i'm saying

I-

Are you saying that you see T3 saying that Hem is towntelling, and T3 calling Hem a town read, and you don't think that it is reasonable to think he can be swayed to vote someone else?

[Lukewarm]

I don't think you are going to be able to convince me that there was no way any one would think that hectic was a viable counterwagon, when I MYSELF THOUGHT THAT HECTIC WAS A VIABLE COUNTERWAGON.

it wasn't a viable counterwagon, i literally just showed it wasn't ...

Maybe we are having different arguments.

I am not arguing that he was a viable wagon. He wasn't, because Infinity had a strong preference against voting him that she did not state when asked how she felt about Hectic (she did not state it when you asked her how she felt about hectic, and then she did not state it when I asked her)

I am saying that at the time you started your push,

it was reasonable to think

that he could be a viable counter wagon. Which I am supporting by saying that at the time,

I thought that

he was a viable counter wagon.

[skitter30]

Are you saying that you see T3 saying that Hem is towntelling, and T3 calling Hem a town read, and you don't think that it is reasonable to think he can be swayed to vote someone else?

eh i misread that post when you quoted it. but either way i don't think he would have joined hectic unless he was literally tied with HEM

and my point is that i didn't think it was particularly viable at the time
i also wasn't expectingf for the hammer to happen overnight and was sort of expecting it to go closer to deadline
but i was pushign him because i thought he was scum, not because i thought it was a viable cw ...

[Noraa]

There is legitimately no good reason for skitter to townread me here if she is scum. There is none. Right now, people mostly agree we are limming one of her or me? There's no reason to be town reading me here as scum. Literally none. I admit, I am much harder to lim than my predecessor from what I've seen but there is still no reason to townread me. Even leaving me to be a mislim option later and setting that up now is > than being like Noraa is probably town.

Saying that is the equivalent of being like kill me today which isn't scum mindset in any universe. Actually, you know what. I like Lukewarm as last scum since Prism seems legitimately angry with me. Lukewarm has called everyone that joined the HEM wagon town. It seems to be somewhat widely accepted now but on and off wagon is not really AI in a setup like this. I would like to hear other reasons people are town/scum because right now it sounds like "they were on wagon. they're town" which is like 2D logic that misses so much. Lukewarm has kinda just closed off the option of on wagon people being scum which sets up a lot of miseliminations actually. We can RP it out.

Skitter is scum!
Skitter's a tree stump now
Noraa is scum!
Noraa's a tree stump now
Oh wow it seems like there was scum on the wagon after all.
It must be Infinity!
Game over.

I don't understand why not being on the wagon is 100% incriminating. Scum busing is absolutely an option and you doesn't seem to consider it at all. In my last game with you, I felt deeper analysis than this extremely shallow surface level wagon analysis. Also your arguments that Skitter is scum make zero sense. Skitter could totally be scum but she's scum for ... lying about not thinking hectic was a viable wagon yesterday? Wtf is that supposed to mean??????? This whole argument reads extremely NAI and generates no useful information.

Also why are you going around quoting your posts that look scummy af? Like you linked me to a post that says "lets yeet hectic" and quoted it for skitter too. And I don't get it. Why would town do that? I see no reason town would be quoting like scummy posts of their own? TSTBS tactic has popped up in my head more than once at this point.

I want to see Lukewarm address this.

[skitter30]

uh i think you're overestimating the likelihood of you're getting flipped rn
and the strength of my townread on you

and he's arguign that i thought that hectic was viable yesterday even though i was *saying* i didn't, and that i was trying to divert off of hem onto hectic

[Noraa]

Also given that I am town, the possibility of scum bussing goes up by a shitton. If people think I'm town, they should start considering the options of scum on the HEM wagon because I'm fairly certain that is the case here. Skitter is probably town because the way scum reacts to scum reads doesn't look like this. Skitter's whole vibe in the posts that I've seen has just been very annoyed but not trying to show it. It's the feeling I get when there is a fly buzzing around. I wouldn't be making it all dramatic because life isn't a movie but I would be annoyed. And that subtle annoyance that Skitter is radiating is towny.

[Noraa]

and he's arguign that i thought that hectic was viable yesterday even though i was *saying* i didn't, and that i was trying to divert off of hem onto hectic

My point stands. What useful AI information would that generate?

[Noraa]

I'll give the thread time to breathe. I also want to know what Hectic's read on skitter is. And Lukewarm.

[skitter30]

i mean they both scumread me, this is obvious ...
why would you-town make a hem bus more likely?

[skitter30]

also i'm not sure i like your lukewarm take

[Prism]

Okay, I'm feeling a bit better but am still not going to read everything atm

Basically Infinity/Lukewarm are locktown for me. I have a large townlean on Hectic. This leaves me with Skitter, Ydrasse, T3, and Noraa. I've been townleaning everyone but Ydrasse for awhile now, but her reaction to HEM upon hammer was quite good and the spark of motivation this morning wasn't bad imo. I'm most concerned about getting wrecked by the Fidget/Skitter slot, where both made some interesting-but-not-hardtown choices.

So that's my perspective on the game and I really want to work back over all 4, and part of working back over Skitter also means working back over Hectic. I'm overall pleased by the new energy in the game from Ydrasse's daystart to Skitter/Lukewarm rn to...Noraa tunneling me+Lukewarm, but I really don't want to just start haphazardly flipping slots.

[Prism]

There is a nonzero chance I just outsource the Noraa/Ydrasse reads to Hectic, but I'd much rather do that as a last resort

[Lukewarm]

I would like to hear other reasons people are town/scum because right now it sounds like "they were on wagon. they're town" which is like 2D logic that misses so much. Lukewarm has kinda just closed off the option of on wagon people being scum

Maybe you are boiling my reads down to "they were on the wagon, so must be town" - but that is not the basis for my reads at all.

I already told you Infinity has been lock town in my mind since like page 16, so clearly that read has more to live off of then just the vote. I told you exactly where to look to find the basis for that read. If you don't want to read it, don't read it, but don't act like I did not point you directly to my reasoning.

I actually think that T3 not voting for prism, and even giving her a town read, when she was at E-1 is the stronger thing in his favor then him voting Hem. Like Prism was being highly adversarial, and I was vocally explaining why I would hammer Prism if I was not already voting her, and T3 gives her a town read (and assuming scum T3, would mean that his partner at the time was VLA and universally scum read. Buying his partner time to get back would have 100% been the play).

Prism is the only person who I am TRing based on the HEM wagon. Not because he was on it, but because she went out of her way to convince 3 other people to join her there.

Also, I made my case on Skitter being scum on Page 42, you are welcome to go read it. Currently, I am just arguing that her defense of "scum me would not think that Hectic was a viable counter wagon" does not make sense to me, because at the time I thought that he was a viable counter wagon.

If you don't want to read the thread, don't read the thread. - But don't come in here with this bullshit that my reads are extremely shallow and surface level, when you are quite simply not reading the game.

[skitter30]

also means working back over Hectic

please do so
and happy you're feeling better!

[skitter30]

Currently, I am just arguing that her defense of "scum me would not think that Hectic was a viable counter wagon" does not make sense to me, because at the time I thought that he was a viable counter wagon.

well technically it's more
'if i were scum and wanted to save HEM i would have pushed an easier slot (cough child cough)'
and
'if i were scum and wanted to save HEM i would be pretty damn sure i would be able to prevent the scumflip before positioning myself in that direction given that the optics of arguing against the flipped scum wagon is pretty awful'

[MURDERCAT]

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[MURDERCAT]

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[MURDERCAT]

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