Mafiascum.net

In post 1265, Aristeia wrote:the way I think about the scum team win condition is;

they all have to get through the gauntlet

eventually

like regardless of what the scum team is - the way they win the game is to get the town to flip the other person - which more or less means the scum players have to each pass through the gauntlet unless they win early, and it means the scum team necessarily must be revealed over time - similar to perpetual mylo except the scum have some extra agency in terms of getting to pick the gladiate.

The best way for the scum to do this is to set up associative pushes that look good on D1 so that as they are flipped, one flip begets another.

Like let's say someone like Bell who is pretty bad at scum[no offense Bell] is on the scum team.

The scum team would necessarily see Bell as somewhat of a liability, he basically is unable to replicate his town!meta when he's scum, he's just kind of a sitting duck.

So the best way to cash that liability into something good for the scum team is to push him D1, cash him in for towncred early - Bell even had the early vote on Kitty to establish distancing that way so that if Bell goes down Kitty gets somewhat reflected Towncred.

It feels like the whole bus Bell for Cred plan didn't work out for Dann because Bell wasn't as obvscum as people required for him to actually go down and eventually kitty became more or less inevitable.

Once Kitty went down and scored a point for town, the calculus regarding Bell kind of changes - it's not really viable to bus him at that point because going down 2-0 is basically a death sentence, so the scum have to get him through the gauntlet

somehow

.

There's two ways Bell/Dann!scum can go as a team.

Bell first and then Dann

or Dann first and then Bell.


It feels incredibly hard for Bell -> Dann to work out for the scum because it would look very strange for Dann to suddenly flip his read of Bell on a dime, can he get away with readflipping, getting Bell home and then escape intact himself? I think that's very tricky for him to do. Remember he has to be able to navigate that readflip without anything from Bell

and

survive with enough towncred to get himself out safely.

Otherwise he's stuck double-bussing and playing from 0-2 down which is kind of difficult even against a town that's flipping coins atp.

Dann flipping first however would generate towncred for Bell because it creates distance since Dann was trying to yeet Bell on D1. It's a much cleaner transition for the scum team and I think it just makes sense strategically as a play than the other way around.

Now in the Town!Dann Scum!Bell world; you'd have Bell deciding to hardbus Kitty d1, and then hardbus Kuti d2 and it feels super ~throwy~ ? like the play is so bad for scum I just can't see scum Bell deciding to play that way.

In post 1155, Loki Dokie wrote:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=34613

Town!Bell

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=34613

Scum!Bell

Okay, maybe it’s not that obvious as I thought but your argument that Dann wants cred for killing Bell over Kitty, like just why? If both are buddie, why would Dann even care which one he busses?

In post 1268, Loki Dokie wrote:The problem that I see Ari, is your theory for Dann!scum is hinging on Bell!scum but what if Bell is town here, how does that impact your theory?

In post 1276, Loki Dokie wrote:Reposting this, because activity in itself isn’t necessarily ai for Bell. I also don’t think Bell is clear by either vote and he can obviously - as Amongst Us shows - hyperpost as either alignment. I also think as any Bell scumgame goes on, the likely worse Bell would look and the exact opposite as town and Bell is voting Kuti right, so he gets no towncred in a scum!Dann world regardless.

In post 1266, GuiltyLion wrote:however I still have a hangup in that let's say kuti is maf and Dann is town and scum wanted us to WIFOM ourselves into voting Dann

who is actually scum pushing us towards that, if anyone? it kinda feels like Bell/Rat are just sitting back and not really advocating for anything, so I could see them as kuti partners in a town!Dann world. Maybe one Vulture/Roden being the remaining scum? but Roden's D2 is a fairly audacious move if kuti is actually maf, especially if the plan is to actually sacrifice kuti and go down 2-0. It's a bit odd that Roden has decreased in presence as the day has gone on, kinda maybe feels like S-S with kuti where Roden wants to look good off their flip while not actually doing a ton to make it really happen

In post 1280, Aristeia wrote:am i being confbiased again

i have a tendency to get confbiased after i yeet a scum on d1

im actually kind of tempted to just do the opposite thing here

In post 1212, Bell wrote:

In post 1149, Aristeia wrote:i think Bell/Dann are S/S and this game is basically over

I have bad news.

In post 1150, Aristeia wrote:Bell's inactivity is a p bad look and points to him being probably just scum.

I think Dann decided to try to push Bell d1 to salvage the KT situation but when he couldn't get traction he basically gave up and bussed KT.

Dann probably figures if he flips here that gives Bell enough towncred tommorrow after he flips to somehow escape off distancing later down the line.

I'm busy.

In post 1151, Aristeia wrote:fire being one of the most vocal dann supporters with logic thats surface level correct is also kind of strange to me

like the principles he's using are correct but they're correct in a way that would be correct even if Dann flips scum here;

which feels like thats his primary consideration rather than who is town/scum within the Dann/Kuti dichotomy


everything is about loss, strategy, and like how a scum team looks at resources rather than

who is actually scum

Rather than trying to win by voting out who is scum, its all about mitigating a possible loss that creates a narrative further down the line that feels somewhat like putting the cart before the horse.

Sure.

In post 1281, fireisredsir wrote:

In post 1266, GuiltyLion wrote:however I still have a hangup in that let's say kuti is maf and Dann is town and scum wanted us to WIFOM ourselves into voting Dann

who is actually scum pushing us towards that, if anyone? it kinda feels like Bell/Rat are just sitting back and not really advocating for anything, so I could see them as kuti partners in a town!Dann world. Maybe one Vulture/Roden being the remaining scum? but Roden's D2 is a fairly audacious move if kuti is actually maf, especially if the plan is to actually sacrifice kuti and go down 2-0. It's a bit odd that Roden has decreased in presence as the day has gone on, kinda maybe feels like S-S with kuti where Roden wants to look good off their flip while not actually doing a ton to make it really happen

i will add tho that if GL and Ari and Loki are all town pushing for a vote on town Dann then scum literally can just sit back and watch

people will join you because you are the consensus townreads. you will feel more validated in your push bc the people you think are scum are on the other side. everyone will feel happier with a dann vote. it's a feedback loop. then Dann flips town and everyone is like oh no, there's no way all 3 maf just sat on kuti, right? and then people start paranoiaing that there must be scum in the widely townead people and boom its a win

In post 1285, Aristeia wrote:so scum bell is repelling us off the scum wagon by acting as a town repellent

thats so big brain though

In post 1287, Loki Dokie wrote:Have you been reading my recent posts?

In post 1283, fireisredsir wrote:

In post 1280, Aristeia wrote:am i being confbiased again

i have a tendency to get confbiased after i yeet a scum on d1

im actually kind of tempted to just do the opposite thing here

idk i do think bell is scum but i think that he could be willing to push scum kuti bc he knows that the people who think he is scum will see that and vote the other person purely to not be on the same wagon as him lol

In post 1289, fireisredsir wrote:

In post 1287, Loki Dokie wrote:Have you been reading my recent posts?

yes, was there anything you wanted a response to?

In post 1284, Loki Dokie wrote:@GL, @Ari, I think you’re both wrong on Bell but Ari’s Kuti!town argument does give me some pause. But here’s the thing @Ari, the entire scumteam doesn’t really need to go though “the gauntlet” because 3 points to either side wins the game.

In post 1292, fireisredsir wrote:ik but the point was that for most of the day you were

In post 1296, Aristeia wrote:He's not saying you're currently doing that.

He's saying you initially started out doing that so if all of the vocal town leaders are leaning one way, it's fine for the entire scum team to go the bus route because they won't actually influence the wagon direction.