Mafiascum.net

↑ fferyllt wrote:

↑ Bookitty wrote:I have good reason to be suspicious of CDB, as Ffery can verify.

↑ fferyllt wrote:as I'd like for you to look at the posts f16 made about no and BRantz voting him. cdb called out those posts specifically in his ns scum case.

I wish I had a better handle on his scum game. Hoped I would after Reck's game, but I dunno.

I'm basically pinning my UT read on how I felt about notsci while he was active. I don't know if that's a good thing to do or not. I felt like I was talking to town in all our interactions.

As scum he could have feigned his usual town paranoia about nacho and me for months without raising my eyebrow. He didn't do that. He also didn't do his "I'm obvtown" thing nearly as emphatically as he usually does.

Nacho liked UT's entrance when he replaced in.

↑ fferyllt wrote:as I'd like for you to look at the posts f16 made about no and BRantz voting him. cdb called out those posts specifically in his ns scum case.

↑ fferyllt wrote:bookitty what caused your mind to change about AP?

↑ Titus wrote:Bookitty, which would bleed more players? Town with one scum left or scum with one scum left?

VOTE: UT

Pretty sure AP, Bookitty and FFery are all town.

↑ ChannelDelibird wrote:Hello. Given my defence of BRantz and my lesser degree of engagement in this game than some other players, I'm fully expecting to be lynched Today and, given that there's probably only one scum left, I'm not going to worry too much about letting you guys get that out of the way, as there's a good chance that I'd be dragged along to LyLo from here.

I certainly want to nail down who I think the last scum is before I die, though, so a little time would be appreciated.

↑ Bookitty wrote:Okay, with the caveat that I'm not the greatest scumhunter, I am thinking this is UT-town.

I'm thinking it strongly enough that it overrules what I was thinking about T-bone.

So there's that.

↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:

↑ fferyllt wrote:UT, have some buffalo wings.who do you think is scum?

to be 100 with you I didn't really read the game yesterday. I assumed that people had it pretty much figured out so I was just like yeah we'll do what you want

I guess I need to tonight, since apparently we don't have it sewn up quite yet

at the moment I'm thinking Titus is a decent pick but need to read etc.

↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:okay so I'm about to get in a car to drive to pittsburgh to get my d wet

but

I promised some reads and here's what I have at the moment:

gun to my head I don't like CDB and Titus the last couple of days. CDB's resignation seems scummy to me, as does Titus's attempt to chainlynch based off POE. It seems to me like she just sorta picked some communal meh/scumreads and is trying to convince the town to off all of them for her so it's easier to ride out the end of this game

when I replaced in I looked at my role PM then at the state of the game and said "oh, we pretty much have this sewn up, I can just hop on the consensus scum pick (who was acting pretty scummy from where I was sitting) and pick up the win. I've been doing midterms and a recital etc over the past weekish, so I was really content to let the rest of my team handle the heavy lifting

obviously it didn't happen that way, but that's the cause for my total lack of prep

↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:and honestly boo I thought you were the last mason, so ffer claiming that makes me super happy to have two really strong townreads to bounce ideas off of

↑ ChannelDelibird wrote:I've reread the first 23 pages looking for people who knew that F-16, ika and BRantz were scum, and signs of who those three knew was the (likely) fourth. I'm not stopping here, but I am writing up my notes now as I'll be out this evening and I don't know if I'll be all done before I have to go.

People I'm ruling out as a buddy

Bookitty:

Went after F-16 early and intelligently. F-16 tried to cast doubt on her during his big series of reads posts, which I don't think he would do to a buddy given that there wasn't any suspicion on her. Bookitty went in hard on F-16 again. Near end of Day 1, focuses on ika and BRantz specifically as two clear suspects - doesn't make sense for a buddy.

ffery:

Did scum get pregame talk? If so, I think ffery not knowing F-16's post restriction is a town tell. F-16 looks like he's trying to manipulate ffery by calling her town and then playing off her predicted reaction to it. Generally ffery seems inquisitive re: F-16 in encouraging ways, later puts ika in a pile of people who should be dealt with.

I also think that the way in which both BRantz and ika put both Bookitty and ffery as solid townreads in their reads lists is kind of an admission that there's no point trying to get anywhere on them.

--

In this first half of the game, the only one of the remaining four candidates to make a serious impression on the game is AP, and I'm also fairly happy that he's town.

AngryPidgeon:

Listed here a few townreads, none of whom are scum ... from what I remember, he does like to call at least one buddy town, which makes this a townping for me. BRantz null-towned AP but in a way that looks like he just wants a bit of room to vote him later if needs be.

--

UT's slot is the one on whom I got the fewest notes in this period. It's all notscience over this time, and there's not a great deal of interaction either way with the flipped scum. I thought it was interesting that BRantz positioned himself in such a way that he wouldn't vote for UT until after 'a Katsuki scumflip', which is the sort of thing that I've done to protect a buddy in the past. Here notscience rather half-heartedly scumreads ika, and also has a pretty unexciting townish read on BRantz. So at this point I'm seeing more reasons to suspect UT than not.

There's almost nothing of Titus's slot while Skrew is in the game. I found his peripheral activity as scummy on reread as I did when I voted for him on Day 1, and the fact that both F-16 and BRantz somewhat spuriously voted for Skrew is also suspicious. Titus does eventually land on an ika vote after replacing in but I still think the entrance is weird and I still find her manipulation of me re: my ika suspicion skeevy.

There's definitely also reason to suspect NS. Look at how F-16 treats his BRantz buddy here - while his previous reads posts have been a lot of definite 'I have a scum read for this' or 'town read for that', he doesn't get definite on BRantz, only asking for explanations for things. His NS post follows the same pattern, seeking clarification and wondering out loud rather than actually taking a stance either way. I also think that NS's approach to the Bookitty-F16 debate is a strange one, focusing only on Bookitty and on a weird note of 'communication issues' ... really? I didn't notice a serious one. BRantz also townreads NS pretty unimpressively for a lame post.

--

While acknowledging that I still need to reread over a third of the game, I'd be tempted to vote for all of the above. Given Titus's heavy push on ika after replacing in, I feel like I'd rather not leave that WIFOM over whether or not she'd do that to a buddy until LyLo so my instinct is that we should start there of the three plausible scum. But I'm also pretty proud of my point about how F-16 treated both BRantz and NS so maaaaybe I'd say that NS is actually the likeliest scum. But it's not a strong preference.

The rest coming either later tonight or tomorrow.

↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:Proddodge

I'm visiting my girlfriend right now, so I really don't want to just halfheartedly comment on things I haven't read yet

V sorry. Plz b patient

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:@Ffery: Sorry for not being here, I'll do my best to keep current on this now. I am 100% on you being town. I thought you might be a mason before you claimed it and I am even more sure now. I am fairly ready to write Titus off as town. She sounds genuine and if she is scum then she has really been throwing herself out there in an impressive way that I think is unlikely. So I probably won't be looking at her this game.

That leaves NS, CDB, UT, Bookitty which is an unfortunately long list of people that I'm not ready to write off. I know I've been calling BooKitty town all game, but I'm sort of at a loss here. I saw some sentiments from UT and CDB that made me want to townread them. NS is.....NS. He has been kind of disjoint from the game and I've been wanting to think hes town for that in a broad sense because he seems to be following his own logic and not responding to what others are doing. Im a little baffled that he still thinks Im scum after the BRantz thing. I realize that I was waffling on BRantz towards the end, but I feel totally fine saying that my interaction with BRantz were hilariously town and not seeing that is weird on some level to me.

UT complaining about his predecessors felt genuine to me in some way. CDB saying that he knew he was going to be lynched made me a little edgy (I think Titus also commented on this), but I did sort of like his follow up post. I'm trying to determine how I feel about his read on Ffery. I find it weird that he just didn't comment on the mason claim there at all, which to me basically turned her into a 100% townread but I was townreading her pretty consistently this game, so it was just building on that I guess. Maybe the claim is less relevant to other people; still curious what CDB thinks about it though. I mean obviously I expect that he believes it if hes townreading her, but ya.

I think I'm leaning towards voting NS?

↑ Titus wrote:@AP, I would think more that F16 was trying to steer and control a townie. I tend to like having a "townbeard" as scum, although I couldn't get one too strong in Hilariously Unbalanced. That type of relationship makes sense. Plus, they wanted to disable the wagon on F16, dominating the town is a good place to start. If the townies don't jump onto a scum wagon, scum rarely continue a bus on multiple days.

F16 kept pushing a block that had NS with a scumbuddy, same with Boo. The dominance is there. They only need one scum to whisper sweet nothings.

I don't see anything townie on UT's posts.

I would be fine with a CDB lynch, but only because it would confirm UT as the last scum from my perspective.

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:Ugh fine lets go back to this

UNVOTE: ; VOTE: Nobody Special

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:Ffery, I wanna say I am feeling a little bit of clarity right now and I 100% agree with the points you made for town-Titus. The bit about WKing BRantz occurred to me. I have had vague paranoia about "what if Titus is just playing a really fantastic scumgame and is one step ahead of me all game", but the people I feel that about rather exclusively end up flipping town by and large.

↑ fferyllt wrote:I'm basically waiting for UT to make his catch-up post, and then I'll decide where my vote goes.

↑ Titus wrote:@fferylt, Regarding townreading me...whatever. I can't make a townread to save myself.

The trajectories and bullshit is how scum try to wifom. The only way Boo or NS could be scum is if F16 deliberately got himself modkilled to throw off wagon analysis.

My analysis does not need post based trajectories. It never has. Those bog me down in politics and in fighting. Those only get applied to the facts themselves. Behavioral analysis is my weakest point. So I come up with methods where I do not need it.

↑ Titus wrote:Right. That's accurate generally. I didn't go through the checklist and say which were useful and which weren't. Timing is. That's the whole looking at who is voting and when. Associations are again derived through long term. I even used tone a bit when commenting with TBone earlier due to his whitenighting on NS.

Reasoning is basically an outlet for charisma. So that one I don't use. Scum always have a reason not to bus.

Placement is actually a much weaker factor.

↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:I would argue that since we have lynches to burn, NS is a good LOLIDK lynch if we find that we're out of ideas

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:

↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:because let's be real here

come on girl. Christopher Nolan writes more believable narratives

Hey my lips are quivering here. I like Nolan movies.

I agree that vca is pretty out the window this game. It's fairly clear to me that scum have been playing a bit creatively this game. Like that early wagon on f16.

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:

↑ Titus wrote:Ffery, which statement do you disagree with?

1) 3 scum on F16 is ridiculous when other wagons were also at 4. Thus NS and Bookitty are clear.
2) You are a mason and thus clear.
3) AP leading a lynch on Brantz strongly clears him but not confirmed.
4) My leading ika lynch means the same boat.

After that list, it's CDB and UT who are left trying to look town like horses trying to look like zebras.

I strongly disagree with the first assertion? F16 was acting like a scummy butt and scum was clearly just doing whatever they wanted. The fact that two scum were seen lolwagoning F16 should make you think that the entire thing is deliberate and not to be read into for risk of falling into a trap.

I more or less agree with the other points.

↑ fferyllt wrote:As near as I can tell your vca is shallow. You've said nothing about the trajectories leading to where players were positionally and temporally on wagons.

Also, this. Of all the places to look for information, an early game RVS-ish troll wagon on a guy who was acting rather blatantly scummy is not one of them.

@fferyllt: What did you and Nacho think about notscience? I loosely feel town from the slot but I've still never actually encountered him-scum before. I think he still has the most readable posts in the thread for that slot, which is unfortunate. My throat is getting itchy just thinking about that.

↑ Titus wrote:Scum always have a reason not to bus.

What does this even mean? What reason?

You have to approach the game realizing that some people KNOW they are being analyzed and will do seemingly random things to avoid getting caught. Like bus spontaneously. I'm not saying that you can't read into actions or votes ever, I'm saying that using a singular troll wagon to divine 2 townreads from is pretty shortsighted.

↑ ChannelDelibird wrote:Anticipating my prod, been on a couch for two days thinking of almost everything other than this game. My read will probably be finished tomorrow; I can remember being put off by Titus's response to my latest so I'll try to address that in the meantime.

↑ Titus wrote:If you are town, F16 was the only scum wagon in post 94. Because of that, there could not have been dualing scum wagons. Therefore Bookitty and NS are town.

↑ Titus wrote:@Ffery, ika is notorious for quickhammering. That does not mean ika is scum when he does it. So why does NS be the boogeyman when he adopts said style?

Oh and yes, I commonly rely on VCA without even reading sometimes.

My VCA is much more accurate than behavioral anslysis.

An insane woman does the same thing expecting a different result.

Going behavioral at end game = town loss

VCA at end game = town wi

I am done chasing my tail.

↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:I don't think you've been paying attention

Titus is literally incapable of being wrong

she's like the Pope or something, except instead of being the head of the catholic church, it's some kind of weird VCA related cult

↑ Titus wrote:

↑ fferyllt wrote:You've already been wrong - asserted with vehemence and vitriol that BRantz was town and insulted the players who voted him. You could be wrong again. It's the uncritical certainty that scares me about you. I utterly hate that I"m even thinking about removing a townread at this point in the game but you scare me with your lack of self-critique even in this game where your analysis has been no better than anyone else's so far.

When I'm dead I hope you run a few reels of play reviews before deciding what you do next.

Right. I was wrong. I used that info to reevaluate, stop using my behavioral analysis and get back to what I use best. Data.

Funny, you are using the same facts I wanted to use to lynch NS when I was tunnelling him yet you know one of my reads was wrong?

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:

↑ Titus wrote:

↑ fferyllt wrote:you have no business calling anyone too proud. not with that coating of pretzel crumbs you've rolled in.

When I win this for us, you will eat your words like a dog eats a bone.

Oh my god. The stupidest thing is that I think you both want to lynch CDB. Sooooo ya.

*clears throat*

That seems a little bit ridiculous to be saying this. I want to scumread you off of how purely insane you have been this game Day but that is bad policy.

Congratulations, you've managed to give me reservations about everyone alive in this game. Well, yourself, but you were my one surefire townread going into this.

@ffery: I don't know what my plan would be going forward. It would probably depend on who gets NK'd/lynched. Actually you are pretty much dead next night in all probability so I could plan around that. I don't want to though. There is a fair chance I will try to lynch NS tomorrow if we lynch CDB/UT Today. I'd much rather have to be in lylo with something other than scum-NS and town-Titus. Because that would be crappy.

CDB has been uninspiring except for one burst of activity that was ok. UT is sidelining a bit, still waiting for him to do something other than sheep muffin or berate Titus. BooKitty is someone I need to pay a little more attention to because I never fully resolved my read on that slot after what happened since the BRantz lynch.

>>> INFRACTION

↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:UTs drive by posting

what do you mean by drive by posting, exactly?

I was VLA for some of earlier, and I also mostly didn't want to deal with Titus' wordvomit and no one else was really posting

↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:

↑ fferyllt wrote:The main thing I don't like is his complete lack of scumhunting

I think Titus is scum. I can also see NS as scum, but as I said earlier I feel like Titus is trying to line up dominos to knock down all through LyLo, which really bugs me

↑ Egg wrote:

↑ Bookitty wrote:I think the wagon on Nacho is abysmal. It makes me feel ucky, like when tacos drip all over your hand while you're eating them and then you don't notice and get a giant smear down your favourite blouse.

Falcon seems pretty conflicted about whether he wants Nacho dead or wants to sheep him. While sheep can be pretty tasty as part of a balanced diet, I think it's an odd choice at this point for Falcon.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Falcon

@Espe: Stop talking about my rack


of lamb.

That logic that myself and GM are confirmed town is worse than the cheap DJ my parents want for my wedding.

If scum decided to bus, it wouldn't surprise me if they went hard.

Not having read the game yet though, I have no strong opinion on Bookitty yet.

Did our flipped masons claim mason with ffery or did that come after their death? It would definitely help me reading this game knowing she is confirmed town.

↑ Titus wrote:@Egg, AP oversimplies it but yes you and Boo are confirmed town from my perspective. So if you just hurry up and obvtown we can move on with the assumption I was right. K thx. Trust late game VCA magic. This game will be game 5 that my reads are right.

Note: AP's scumread increased the more I stopped the wagon on your slot as if UT and CDB (now gm) are both town, he has to be scum.

It's most likely GM.

↑ Titus wrote:Ok, let's start with the early wagon. It's well out of random voting stage, as evidenced by the non vc quotes I have included. AP's wagon is all town but for the possibility of CDB (unless you scumread me).

Brantz peels off to vote Tier. Tier is later night shot. NS follows Brantz, scum tend not to follow that closely to each other. Bookitty peels off to vote ika, another scum. That's indicative of Bookitty not bussing. Combined with two flipped scum already on F16, the likelihood of one of them being scum is astronomically low.

We turn today 2.

Spoiler: forgotten post

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:

↑ Titus wrote:@AP, ika's meta is to literally lurk the game away as scum. No amount of scumlynches will change that. He views it as our job to make him play.

I don't think I've ever seen him as scum before. He is generally active as town. Still, activity-tells make my stomach sick. I don't think hes intentionally lurking at least, he looks genuinely apathetic. Which could be more likely from him as scum, but his interactions with F16 make me think town.

Ya I'll reread F16 posts soon. After the gym.

P-edit: I mostly mean that I need to form a read on you. Sleepy lurked his way out of the game and your slot is kind of in the spotlight. Your Ika push makes complete sense to me.

Day two was mostly my slot v ika. I fought to lynch ika. AP defends ika.
CDB was dragged hemming and hawing. NS hammered. Bookitty was all of that early.

Espeonage was a quick lynch with AP at the front which was stupid.
Then we had the lynch of Muffin without an articulated case before ai could post. Seriously that was stupid.

Then its Brantz vs NS. I vehmently argued Brantz was town leading to this VCA.So, I knew one of my behavioral reads had to be wrong. When that happens, I go back to what never fails me. The data.

My confirmed town based on voting alone have never been wrong in 4 games doing this now unless scum wagoned each other. I don't see that.

I need to look deeper at the end of the day when Brantz was lynched tosee how much credit to give AP for that.

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:

↑ Titus wrote:Espeonage was a quick lynch with AP at the front which was stupid.

did you just accuse me of wanting to lynch Esp?

↑ Serene2 wrote:Espeonage (7): ChannelDeliBird, Nachomamma8, TierShift, BRantz, BooKitty, Muffin, Nobody Special
Titus (1): beastcharizard,
CDB (1): , AngryPidgeon,
AngryPidgeon (1): Titus

I was nowhere near the espeonage wagon and I called him town more than once.

↑ Titus wrote:Sorry, I got the muffin and Esp wagons confused for a second. Both wagons were fast and stupid.

↑ Titus wrote:

↑ fferyllt wrote:UT's fade has landed him back in my 2nd favorite lynch position.

GM, don't fuck around. Nacho's last words in our mason thread were that your slot should be the next lynch. I'm strongly inclined to honor that on my way to the locker room.

Why would GM scum come in and piss off the mason? GM rarely pisses anyone off as scum due to being afraid of messing up.

↑ Titus wrote:

↑ fferyllt wrote:titus is voting you, right? She said she'd join titus.

I'm really confused because i thought she was townreading you now.

I didn't drink that porter, so it's not beer goggles confusion.

I was scumreading AP until the Brantz lynch. Then I was townreading AP until I looked at the votes and kills.

↑ Titus wrote:

↑ Bookitty wrote:

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:I'll self vote to avoid a no lynch.

I'm not going to let this town succumb to an upset stomach.

(Im fine with lynching UT too fwiw)

Not to rain spaghetti on your delightful smorgasbord, but this won't help. There are three votes on GoodMorning and only one on you that I see.

Egg voted AP.

UT or AP. I will no lynch if I have to.

↑ Titus wrote:Boo, the AtE from AP served its purpose, to get you to not lynch him. I pribably should lynch goodmorning here but I am frustrated by perpetually being ignored.

What the hell, Egg and I will lynch AP. Bookitty can lynch AP, we can get an AP lynch tomorriw.

VOTE: GM

Tommorrow AP.