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Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 9:50 am
by imaginality
Also
@mod: your vote counts still say Day 3
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:39 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 1299, imaginality wrote:1292 did raise my hackles a bit too.
I'm not convinced scum openly buys ninja for 500 on D2 though.
On the flip side I'm still wondering whether we get five town on the D2 VFP wagon if VFP is town. Wagon was {Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko} so if you and mastina are town then to my mind it's highly likely ssbm or VFP are scum rather than both town.
Hmm...
VOTE: Unvote
I wasn't on the e-1wagon d2, I voted vfp with Misty/S_S just before end of d1, when kitty seemed to be the 'default' plurality lim. Then I voted him early on in D3, don't think I was voting him at all d2 but I don't recall.
I did post the players that were on the e-1 wagon though, if you iso me and ctrl-F for "my count" you will find the wagon
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:43 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
I also am unsure of who might be S_S's partner. I think, if they are scum, their partner will not be found by associatives.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:44 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
@VFP, 2 questions:
Why are you voting me?
Why did you use your power last Night?
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:45 am
by Gamma Emerald
idek why he specified he used the power
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:48 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
If you had to guess, why would you say he claimed to have used it last night?
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:57 am
by Something_Smart
I'm back.
I told the mod that I would be out of town. I was hoping he would mention it.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:58 am
by Gamma Emerald
I have no idea, there's no reason to specify it except I guess for townpoints
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:02 pm
by marcistar
In post 1299, imaginality wrote:1292 did raise my hackles a bit too.
I'm not convinced scum openly buys ninja for 500 on D2 though.
On the flip side I'm still wondering whether we get five town on the D2 VFP wagon if VFP is town. Wagon was {Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko} so if you and mastina are town then to my mind it's highly likely ssbm or VFP are scum rather than both town.
Hmm...
VOTE: Unvote
we still got some time to think about it, idk if i would be confident in a ssbm_kyouko vote though.. do you think they're scummy?
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:25 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
Can you start off a popcorn fullclaim for us, where S&M will claim last?
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:30 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
Damn! I thought I actually had an inno. :/
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:33 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 1278, mastina wrote:GET
, SCUM!!!
Did you REALLY think that, when there was such a fucking obvious protect two nights in a row and I had outed that I had made a top bid of 200 that you could snipe it from me and prevent me from saving marcistar?
Of COURSE I raised my bid above 200!
But by how much?
Too bad you redacted that bid, eh?? Guess you'll never know!
So I have some unspecified amount below 300.
To be clear and unambiguous:
I won the 1x jailkeeper, and I jailkept marcistar last night.
This is pretty damn transparently a protection as I figured using my role to protect was easier than using it to block with two scum alive. (If we had only one scum alive I was going to holster, let imaginality use his roleblock, announce I own a jailkeep and select a target, but with two scum alive and the obvious protect to make I needed to save marcistar.)
VOTE: VFP.
Oh then I actually did get an inno. \o/
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:34 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 1279, marcistar wrote:
i think we should trust mastina unless theres a cc or anything. i tried digging and it failed, dont see anything else to explain this.
In post 1276, imaginality wrote:I didn't target anyone.
So either the jailkeeper jailkept scum, or jailkept scum's target, or the doctor protected town, or the scum no-killed.
i don't think its very likely scum no killed, they 100% need to get the number of very trusted townies down to get a shot at winning (and before more people can be thought of in a "near confirmed" way), not killing at this state would be detrimental for them.
mastina
, who do u think vfps partner would be?
gamma emerald, something_smart, vfp <- scums within these, maybe possibly ssbm_kyouko could be, but that seems unlikely to me.
smoke
, who do u think?
imaginality
, who do u think?
(anyone else is welcome to answer as well)
I still think something_smart would be the more likely to flip scum, but im fine with vfp as well.
I tracked Kyouku last night, he didn’t go anywhere.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:38 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 1288, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:S&M, VFP, Imaginality: why do you think Distance was NKed? Read his ISO, consider the gamestate D2, what do you think?
I think because he probably had an inno on Marci or voting VFP?
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:39 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 1308, marcistar wrote: In post 1299, imaginality wrote:1292 did raise my hackles a bit too.
I'm not convinced scum openly buys ninja for 500 on D2 though.
On the flip side I'm still wondering whether we get five town on the D2 VFP wagon if VFP is town. Wagon was {Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko} so if you and mastina are town then to my mind it's highly likely ssbm or VFP are scum rather than both town.
Hmm...
VOTE: Unvote
we still got some time to think about it, idk if i would be confident in a ssbm_kyouko vote though.. do you think they're scummy?
I think it was obvious that scum targeted Marci and Kyouku didn’t go anywhere.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:42 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
Good job Mastina but I thought you’d jk us but it’s good since we got an inno on Kyouku.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:21 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 1312, Smoke and Mirrors wrote: In post 1279, marcistar wrote:
i think we should trust mastina unless theres a cc or anything. i tried digging and it failed, dont see anything else to explain this.
In post 1276, imaginality wrote:I didn't target anyone.
So either the jailkeeper jailkept scum, or jailkept scum's target, or the doctor protected town, or the scum no-killed.
i don't think its very likely scum no killed, they 100% need to get the number of very trusted townies down to get a shot at winning (and before more people can be thought of in a "near confirmed" way), not killing at this state would be detrimental for them.
mastina
, who do u think vfps partner would be?
gamma emerald, something_smart, vfp <- scums within these, maybe possibly ssbm_kyouko could be, but that seems unlikely to me.
smoke
, who do u think?
imaginality
, who do u think?
(anyone else is welcome to answer as well)
I still think something_smart would be the more likely to flip scum, but im fine with vfp as well.
I tracked Kyouku last night, he didn’t go anywhere.
Well this is why I wanted s&m to claim last, I figured out they won tracker, but if they tracked me it doesnt matter what order we claim in anymore I think.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:28 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
My full claim is already out I think, but to recap I bought hitman at 426 on D1 and on D2 I bid 52 and 22 after the halfway point, on 1-shot AD and gravedigger. D3 I made no bids because all of the items were above 74 at the midway point so I couldn't win any. I imagine the same thing will happen toDay.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:32 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
Actually I guess order does still matter as scum can try to fill in the blanks.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:36 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 1316, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: In post 1312, Smoke and Mirrors wrote: In post 1279, marcistar wrote:
i think we should trust mastina unless theres a cc or anything. i tried digging and it failed, dont see anything else to explain this.
In post 1276, imaginality wrote:I didn't target anyone.
So either the jailkeeper jailkept scum, or jailkept scum's target, or the doctor protected town, or the scum no-killed.
i don't think its very likely scum no killed, they 100% need to get the number of very trusted townies down to get a shot at winning (and before more people can be thought of in a "near confirmed" way), not killing at this state would be detrimental for them.
mastina
, who do u think vfps partner would be?
gamma emerald, something_smart, vfp <- scums within these, maybe possibly ssbm_kyouko could be, but that seems unlikely to me.
smoke
, who do u think?
imaginality
, who do u think?
(anyone else is welcome to answer as well)
I still think something_smart would be the more likely to flip scum, but im fine with vfp as well.
I tracked Kyouku last night, he didn’t go anywhere.
Well this is why I wanted s&m to claim last, I figured out they won tracker, but if they tracked me it doesnt matter what order we claim in anymore I think.
We really didn’t expect to but clearring you, likely points to VFP being scum because you gave him your MO and yoi dying would have looked really bad for him. You were clearly not targeted so scum could push you for not dying.
So I think my solve of Kitty/Imaginality/VFP may have been correct.
VOTE: VFP
So he can’t use his 2nd ninja shot.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:52 pm
by Something_Smart
I don't like popcorn but I'm fine with going first.
D1 Misty put $300 on cop and did not get it.
D2 $500 on watcher and got it.
N2 did not act.
N3 watched Smoke & Mirrors, no visits.
S&M should choose the rest of the claim order, I think.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:58 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 1320, Something_Smart wrote:I don't like popcorn but I'm fine with going first.
D1 Misty put $300 on cop and did not get it.
D2 $500 on watcher and got it.
N2 did not act.
N3 watched Smoke & Mirrors, no visits.
S&M should choose the rest of the claim order, I think.
Makes sense since no kill happened and Mastina jk’d Marci.
I think Kyouku already did. We don’t need to bother with Mastina or Marci.
So probably Imaginality then Gamma, I guess.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 3:05 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
Oh forgot VFP.
VFP
Imaginality
Gamma
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 3:14 pm
by imaginality
In post 1319, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:
I tracked Kyouku last night, he didn’t go anywhere.
[...]
We really didn’t expect to but clearring you[...]
Again, this may just be me being paranoid but ssbm isn't fully cleared. Could be scum whose scumbuddy submitted the kill attempt.
I know it's less likely that's the case. Random baseline is from your pov there's 5/7 chance ssbm is town, 1/7 chance ssbm is scum who didn't submit the kill, so odds are 1/6 of that, ie 83% chance ssbm is town. Although a bit higher if you think ssbm was likelier than average to be scum e.g. If you thought it's a flip then chances ssbm is town given the inno is 75%. And then again, higher chance if you think it's more than 50% chance ssbm would be the one submitting the NK.
My point is just some of us are wrong about some of our assumptions or reads and I don't want anything to get overlooked.
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:30 pm
by marcistar
In post 1323, imaginality wrote:Again, this may just be me being paranoid but ssbm isn't fully cleared. Could be scum whose scumbuddy submitted the kill attempt.
I know it's less likely that's the case. Random baseline is from your pov there's 5/7 chance ssbm is town, 1/7 chance ssbm is scum who didn't submit the kill, so odds are 1/6 of that, ie 83% chance ssbm is town. Although a bit higher if you think ssbm was likelier than average to be scum e.g. If you thought it's a flip then chances ssbm is town given the inno is 75%. And then again, higher chance if you think it's more than 50% chance ssbm would be the one submitting the NK.
My point is just some of us are wrong about some of our assumptions or reads and I don't want anything to get overlooked.
about to overlook this because numbers confuse me
-
imaginality do u have any ideas rn..? it looked like u were rethinking before
