Mafiascum.net

ElectricBadger wrote:

ortolan wrote:

Follow The Cop

9 players

2x mafia goons
1x cop
2x beloved princess millers
4x vanilla townies

cop head start

edit: beloved princesses only give the scum an extra kill, the cop only gets one investigation. They only trigger doublekill if they are lynched, not nightkilled.

So basically a nerfed cop and potential double-kills for the mafia. It's a REALLY brutal scenario for town. Two mislynched BP's = 6 dead townies = probable scum win. Assuming one scum fake claims, town has a 2/3*1/2=33% chance of ending in such a situation, without even addressing the other scum.

I think removing the BP's and having them just millers would be a much better balance.

I don't think it's as harsh on town as you make out. When a princess gets wagoned they are going to claim princess. When a scum gets wagoned they are going to claim either princess or VT. That's all part of the WIFOM- if someone claims princess you're taking a big risk by lynching them, but if the town is scumhunting well they should be able to see past that and lynch based on actual scummy behaviour.

Also remember that if the cop gets an innocent result then that player is a confirmed innocent VT. When they get a guilty they can decide based on the person's behaviour whether they are more likely to be scum or princess.

Elmo wrote:

ortolan wrote:

Follow The Cop

Should probably be run at least once for sheer comedy value.

Bonus points if you make the princess millers bulletproof.

That would be funny but it would probably further disadvantage the town and lead to no-kill WIFOM situations (if there's no kill the town will wonder if the scum nokilled or if they targeted a princess, and they will speculate as to who the kill was directed at) which aren't very enjoyable to play through in my opinion.

For all of the 3 seconds I spent thinking about it, I thought that would lean more towards town, I would just take the free investigation and be happy. Just curious what your perspective is?

Elmo wrote:For all of the 3 seconds I spent thinking about it, I thought that would lean more towards town, I would just take the free investigation and be happy. Just curious what your perspective is?

Oh yer, I forgot that would effectively be a free investigation for the cop. In that case another perspective is that it gets very nasty for the scum if a beloved princess claims and is believed. They cannot kill them in any way. If it happens with both it completely screws the scum.

Can you self-nom? Let's see.

ortolan wrote:In that case another perspective is that it gets very nasty for the scum if a beloved princess claims and is believed. They cannot kill them in any way. If it happens with both it completely screws the scum.

You're right, in fact it would be optimal for them both just to claim D1 I think. D'oh.

Hm. Isn't that optimal for the original setup, thinking about it? I'm too tired to run numbers. 2x Miller confirmed innocent or scum are forced into {1:2}/{1:5} with a cop out and no chance of false positive guilties either way. Ummm.

If only one scum claims then there's a 66.6% chance of mislynching. The next day if the town chooses to lynch from the first two there's a 50% probability of them losing instantly.

The chances of the cop finding the other scum lying about their claim in that time is too complicated for me to calculate taking into account all possibilites. I don't it's broken though .

Yeh, it's not clearly broken. I don't know if it's better or not, but it's probably within the margin where you'll sometimes do better with scumhunting. (Still too lazy to run numbers.)

I figure!

Elmo wrote:Yeh, it's not clearly broken. I don't know if it's better or not, but it's probably within the margin where you'll sometimes do better with scumhunting. (Still too lazy to run numbers.)

Nominate: Follow the Cop

I figure!

Cheers. I think the numbers are difficult to run because you need to take into account probability of cop investigating one of the three claimaints n0 vs not doing so. It just got too complicated for me

wait is it just a one shot cop investigation and since I'm not the familiar with a princess is it an extra kill for the mafia if she is lynched?

There are two variations:

1. When the Princess is lynched double night
2. When the Princess is killed, double night

In this case I suspect 1

ortolan wrote:edit: beloved princesses only give the scum an extra kill, the cop only gets one investigation. They only trigger doublekill if they are lynched, not nightkilled.

The Cop is a normal Sane Cop, i.e. investigates every night.
In the case that a Beloved Princess is nightkilled, everything is normal.
In the case that a Beloved Princess is lynched, that night, the Cop gets 1 investigation and the Mafia get 2 nightkills. (Canonically, the town spends the following Day in mourning and hence there is a double night; this is a variant.)

At least that's how I read it.

Doing some quick pencil-and-paper calculations, here's one strategy. The numbers for the Cop not coming out D1 are obviously a bit more complex (I suspect it's not a good idea for him to wait, though).

Massclaim randomly (or based on early suspicions). Scum shouldn't claim Cop, and should probably split 1 and 1 on BPM/VT claims - because of that, it really doesn't matter what order the claims happen in. The preference would be to have the Cop claim later, so the scum wouldn't have any read on who the Cop might be more likely to investigate.

After the claims, Cop reveals investigation. There's a 1/8 chance the investigation is useful (and I don't think this can be improved - however claims come out, it is clear one scum should claim BPM and the other VT), in the case where the Cop has investigated the scum claiming VT. In this case, you have two chances to hit the other scum, with a 2/3 EV.

If the Cop gets a guilty on a BPM (3/8), you have one confirmed innocent (the Cop), 1 scum hiding with 2 BPMs, 1 scum hiding with 4 VTs (EV = 14/45). If the Cop gets an innocent, you have two confirmed innocents, 1:2 BPM, 1:3 VT (EV = 13/36).

In both cases, you are slightly better off lynching amongst the BPM claims first assuming that scum are forced to kill if the town no lynches in a 1:3 endgame (otherwise, I don't think it matters what order you do it in).

Overall, that gives an EV of 137/360 = 38.1%. Which isn't terrible. This basically falls in the class of "Census" games, though (a known number of scum hiding in different groups of a known number of innocents) - with the particular setup essentially being "selected" through the cop investigation.

(EV if both scum claim BPM is 50%. EV if both scum claim VT is 45%.)

Scratch that. Thought of an alternate strategy which is not so boring, and should be an improvement on the above. I've decided against typing it out, in case the game is run and the players want to determine their own strategy.

I can't find a link to it, so I'll ask here. Is there a list of all approved Open Setup games?

yawetag wrote:I can't find a link to it, so I'll ask here. Is there a list of all approved Open Setup games?

I think I've asked that before and got the answer "no". I could be wrong but I think farside basically determines what setups get run, apart from when a setup is nominated for the first time.

ortolan wrote:I think I've asked that before and got the answer "no". I could be wrong but I think farside basically determines what setups get run, apart from when a setup is nominated for the first time.

Interesting. Seems like we could add the games to the wiki, using an "Open Setup" category.

Vi wrote:It shouldn't be harder than compiling what's there into a single, friendly page.

Now that you link it, I remember the category. My original thought was "Is that all of them, or only the ones on the wiki?"

If farside has a list, which I presume she does, and it's available, I would love to get a copy. I'll work on getting them all into the wiki. It won't be a "single, friendly page," but it will have better navigation than simply looking at the category.

What I meant was that I'm fairly positive that not all of the links inside the category are approved Open setups, so it needs some organization from here.

If there's a setup that's not on the wiki and someone cares about it, someone will make a page for it.

Vi wrote:What I meant was that I'm fairly positive that not all of the links inside the category are approved Open setups, so it needs some organization from here.

If there's a setup that's not on the wiki and someone cares about it, someone will make a page for it.

Right. Category:Open Setups just means it contains an open setup of some kind, not that it's on The List^TM. Probably some sort of Approved Open Setups page would be useful.

ortolan wrote:

yawetag wrote:I can't find a link to it, so I'll ask here. Is there a list of all approved Open Setup games?

I think I've asked that before and got the answer "no". I could be wrong but I think farside basically determines what setups get run, apart from when a setup is nominated for the first time.

There was at one time. But for now I look at what is here, get some discussion going on the pro's and con's before running the set up.
Most of the games I take are ones that have already been run and approved (when we had a commitee on this).

yawetag wrote:

Vi wrote:It shouldn't be harder than compiling what's there into a single, friendly page.

Now that you link it, I remember the category. My original thought was "Is that all of them, or only the ones on the wiki?"

If farside has a list, which I presume she does, and it's available, I would love to get a copy. I'll work on getting them all into the wiki. It won't be a "single, friendly page," but it will have better navigation than simply looking at the category.

I have a mental list. But basically the one that Vi linked to is where I get most of the games I use for Open Games. I like to see some variety and before I post it on the wiki I like to see it run.

By the way as for follow the cop I have to wonder if the BP is considered normal?
Mith or Mr.Flay your thoughts on it.

Let's do follow the cop now!

mith wrote:(EV is...50% [or] 45%.)

Looks like we're good to go. Seems like I have a knack for coming up with 50% setups seeing as my other one, true love was exactly 50%.