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Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:15 pm
by Iecerint
Good wagon history from what I can remember, and he had a guilty claimed on him by flipped scum [orc] in mylo (= D4).

And I was relatively sure your slot was the remaining scum until your replace-in post (due to PoE + somewhat odd reasoning for supporting orc as a cop based on being a tracker).

I would be really mad at myself if I lost to your slot without taking NL.

Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:24 pm
by Quilford
What's a 'wagon history'?

What do you think NL is going to accomplish?

Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:26 pm
by Quilford
I ask these questions only because I'm highly convinced that Majiffy is the final scum.

Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:30 pm
by Iecerint
Wagon history = he wanted to lynch flipped scum, he didn't want to lynch flipped town.

At this point, NL will kill either you or Rach. If it kills you, I will not be worried about your slot. If it kills Rach, your result will confirm me (or confirm Majiffy to me), barring the phantom busdriver or whatever (unlikely since both scum flips have been PRs already).

Pedit -- Well, it's just a question of whether you're worried about Rach throwing, then.

Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:37 pm
by Quilford
Throwing?

Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:42 pm
by Quilford
Come on. We both know what's really going to happen.

Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:22 pm
by Quilford
Well, I'll just make the points that having a good wagon history is considerably easier when you know who the scum and the town are, and that doing a guilty claim gambit is not exactly out of Majiffy's league.

Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:25 pm
by Iecerint
I also think that Majiffy is the most likely. No harm making it clear at this point because the pattern of questioning has made it pretty obvious.

Throwing means losing something that should have been won due to carelessness.

Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 10:02 pm
by Quilford
Eh actually I'm less certain now. Your posting looked really good upon first readthrough, Iecerint, but it's not particularly standout upon a reread and I know you're a very capable scum player.

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:15 am
by Iecerint
I would expect you to be pretty focused on me tbh. Not that I wasn't fine with you surprising me.

It would be nice for Rach to pop in and indicate whether she wants to NL.

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:16 am
by Iecerint
I guess the negative tracks could account for it, though.

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 5:44 am
by Majiffy
In post 1331, Quilford wrote:Well, I'll just make the points that having a good wagon history is considerably easier when you know who the scum and the town are, and that doing a guilty claim gambit is not exactly out of Majiffy's league.
So I spent the entire game tunneling the scum 1-shot strongman, only to have the completely-unsuspected-by-anyone Roleblocker slot fake a guilty report on me, have both of my teammates aggressively bus me almost to the point of getting lynched (but not self-voting to seal the bus!) only to push the wagon back onto both of my teammates and leave myself alone at MYLO when we could have easily won this two day phases ago with a simple lynch on Iec or Espy or Rach. :nerd:

You, sir, are a genius of mafia stratagem.

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:00 am
by Quilford
Oh please. You, selfvoting?

I'm glad you've made a number of nice assertions that I can follow up on in due course.
In post 1336, Majiffy wrote:You, sir, are a genius of mafia stratagem.
Oh you flirt

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:30 am
by Majiffy
I have self-voted on occasion to prevent wagon analysis and cut off discussion.

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:36 am
by Iecerint
In post 1336, Majiffy wrote:[W]e could have easily won this two day phases ago with a simple lynch on Iec or Espy or Rach. :nerd:
Orc targeting you doesn't make much sense regardless of the identity of the third scum.

And it's not true that no one suspected orc; IIRC some people (I think Rach and I) voiced suspicion D3 during the SMP/Titus wagon.

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:42 am
by Iecerint
Yep, here's Rach's orc stuff D3
In post 833, RachMarie wrote:Orc since you are on could you go into more detail who YOU think is scum? Your vote is on me, and its unlike you to rail on other peeps while vote parking, yet you have not made any kind of case on me whilst complaining about Jiffy not having a solid read on me

Where is the fiery speeches and cases you usually do Orc?
In post 835, RachMarie wrote:I think I mentioned that I have been sick. I even had to call NS to come back home from the errands he was doing, after I puked my guts out in the trash can next to my computer. Also was dizzy and woosy and afraid to get out of the chair with him gone. Running a fever too. So yeah I have not done much in my games past few days.

Still your play is not the usual play I have seen from you, so why would you be surprised I would point it out. If you are town Orc, we NEED you. If you are not then you need rope.
In post 846, RachMarie wrote:With the lack of time, I will claim

I am VT.

Reads

I think Jiffy, TBP and Mhork are town

Light town read on DV

Very light town read on Titus (primarily due to the un CCed PR claim)

I think the scum are in (Orc, SMP, or maybe even Ice)

VOTE: SMP
My only comment was in the context of the benefit of a hammer on Titus, so I guess I misremembered:
In post 864, Iecerint wrote:It looks like Mhork isn't happening. He's ridiculously opportunistic and he should be the obvious lynch, but whatever.

Unvote; Vote: SMP


Really don't like DV's switch from SMP to Titus, especially given the DV-made case on SMP from earlier today. That makes me feel very uncomfortable with lynching Titus today.

This puts both wagons at L-2 I think.

I will be in before deadline to potentially hammer Titus if need be, as a Titus lynch is at least informational (TitusTown -> SMP/Rach/DV look bad; TitusScum -> orci/Mhork look bad).

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:31 am
by RachMarie
I have been in bed sick and do not have much time now due to doc apt. I will post more later

Welcome Quil and thanks for the track reads. It helps a lot. Though it does suck that we did not get one for last night since last night there was only one scum left.

Any thoughts why Esp now you was not NKed last night? Or for that matter Jiffy?

The NK to me makes NO sense at all.

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 5:00 pm
by Majiffy
NK only makes sense if you consider Mhork was going to sheep me with my vote; on Ice. So... I'm gonna go fuck myself and consider this heavily for weeks.

Days.

Maybe hours.

Be back later.

Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 5:31 pm
by Iecerint
In post 1341, RachMarie wrote:The NK to me makes NO sense at all.
Rach, you and Mhork were confirmed town for the exact same reason after Titus flipped: both of you had the opportunity to win outright if scum for a window during D4. The reason is that if you were scum it would mean that Majiffy was town, and you could have switched wagons and hammered him. This was clear after Titus flipped because Titus flipping and the game not ending meant that D4 had been mylo.

I know this was clear to Espe's slot and to me; Espe even posted about it D4 (though while also ruling out Majiffy on the grounds that orc/Majiffy were 1/1).

Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 4:12 am
by Iecerint
Rach, it looks like Majiffy and Espe both don't want to NL. If you don't want to NL, either, NL will be impossible.

Let me know if you want to NL.

The benefit of NL is that someone will die and flip town and the puzzle will become easier. Espe's nigh-confirmation and PR mean he might be killed instead of you, so it is worth it to you if you think that Quil has any chance of being scum.

If you do not want to NL, I will vote Majiffy.

Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 4:26 am
by RachMarie
Wait a minute that makes no sense at all Iec. Either he is town or he is scum, Quil is Esp's replacement.

And if you think I am worried about being the NK this late in the game, you do not know me very well. My main concern is for a team win, which does not mean I have to survive to the end. Just that we get the scum and someone from the town is still standing.

What is the rush? We have some time for Quil to catch up.

Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 5:56 am
by Iecerint
Rach, my point is that despite you being "more" confirmed, there is a chance that he will die at night if town due to his PR. Or, if you are killed, Espe will identify or choose the 1/1. Either way, it makes tomorrow easy for me.

If you want to talk Maj/Iec with Quil a bit first, that's fine.

Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:12 am
by Iecerint
Well, easier for me unless Quil is scum who picks Quil-Maj. But at least it would be a quick death.

Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:49 pm
by Quilford
I don't see the point to Bring, simply because we go from two people who are effectively confirmed town to one person. This has a number of downsides, including that the last person is under a lot of pressure to make the right decision, a decision that will be harder to make when there isn't another person with guaranteed pro-town motives to check things with.

Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:50 pm
by Quilford
That should be 'I don't see the point to NLing'. Damn autocorrect.