Chemist isn't doing any gamesolving, do tell me what you think of his ISO
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:37 am
by Miss Lane
In post 1325, Auro wrote:Chemist isn't doing any gamesolving, do tell me what you think of his ISO
I think in any game it's garbage, and I'd want to lynch it, but Klick said he's seen both from Chemist before, so I'd have to get examples of him doing this as town before I can really read him either way, IMO. I'm just being lazy at this point and not metaing him mostly because I don't want to. Part of me wants to say that Klick only defends Chemist if they're on the same team and that them both being town is impossible with the current PoE, but I have to recognize that Klick defending scum Chemist is still possible.
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:59 am
by popsofctown
I thought it seemed scummy that you came into this day without much of a coherent worldview, in particular scum reading both me and Auro doesn't seem that plausible? I think it can be valid to feel strongly a quarreling pair has a scum in it and not be sure which one, but when it's something like this game where it looks like SvS never ever i would expect that to come to the forefront in the thought process. It makes it look a lot like you're playing close to the best about how this day is going.
You've moved towards a more coherent solve without someone calling you out on it, though.
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:05 am
by Miss Lane
In post 1327, popsofctown wrote:I thought it seemed scummy that you came into this day without much of a coherent worldview, in particular scum reading both me and Auro doesn't seem that plausible? I think it can be valid to feel strongly a quarreling pair has a scum in it and not be sure which one, but when it's something like this game where it looks like SvS never ever i would expect that to come to the forefront in the thought process. It makes it look a lot like you're playing close to the best about how this day is going.
You've moved towards a more coherent solve without someone calling you out on it, though.
To be fair I was gone while a lot of large things were happening, and I wasn't really scum reading you until recently.
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:07 am
by popsofctown
Did you make posts while not caught up on the thread?
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:13 am
by Miss Lane
Yes.
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:14 am
by popsofctown
That makes a lot of stuff make more sense
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:20 am
by Miss Lane
May I please town read you?
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:30 am
by Klick
Looking at the Suji case now.
Auro and ML both posit that scum have to push town to win here - can someone brief me on the theory behind that? I'm missing it. I'll accept the premise and move on for now.
I'm going to try and reframe/summarise your points to understand them better - let me know if I misinterpret anything.
Part 1 appears to be making the argument that Suji's push on Aldus was scummy because it seems forced, and when you pushed on it he didn't show any interest in reevaluating.
Looking through Suji's ISO, the accuracy of this statement seems strong at least - Suji's reads don't change all that much until 3/4 of his scumreads flip town (and tangentially, his scumreads being so bad isn't a good sign). I guess the main thing I'm missing here is why this is more likely to come from scum than town? Does Suji have a meta of bending reads to arguments from other players? There are plenty of stubborn town players, particularly on this site, that just don't really trust the reads of players that aren't themselves on principle.
The big part of this that I generally agree with and would like to add to is that his Aldus push is pretty damn weak. The only post that I'd call a 'push', an attempt to get others on board with his read, was 430. I remembered Suji having more conviction than he actually had - I was probably reading fairly logical statements and attributing more weight there than I should have.
That sorta leads into Point 2. I don't buy into the meta parts of the argument, especially as Suji seems to be a new player and microadjustments in playstyle like this from a game that happened five months ago aren't that scum-indicative I think. But it ties into the general idea that Suji has a surprising lack of conviction in pushing his view of the game.
I don't really know what to think of the third point, or the wagon argument in general. It seems like Suji/ML both got a bit peeved when it was suggested the Egix wagon could have been all town, because that implies exactly Suji/ML/Chemist, necessitating them being scum. The push to look on the wagon seems like a direct reaction against that. The read I'm getting from the reaction is 'flustered', which I don't actually think is alignment-indicative in this circumstance. Scum in that situation is obviously flustered, but town who thinks you've just come to a bad solve at MyLo also reacts a bit panicky. This point is null to me.
Funnily enough, your minor points do more for me than your major ones. The weak scumlean on Yshtola just limping there is bad. His reads list in general is poor - if you're town, it's 0/4 on scumreads. Me/pops/ML are his townreads, and while I'm not sold on pops I could pretty easily see a Suji/ML team (I'd like to look into ML more as the next thing I do). And Homura was bad.
All in all, there's less good than I thought there was, and while I don't think our logic quite matches up I think I can see Suji-scum. I'd like to see more from him today though when he's around more.
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:38 am
by Auro
P1, scum knows that the town slots they're pushing as scum are town, so cases can appear unnatural
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:41 am
by popsofctown
Probably not. No one seems to townread me. I'm not having a great game. Scumreading Allisdust was bad. Being skeptical about Egix's lynch was good but voting him on a whim over a single data point was bad and trumps it.
I feel really reminded of how I felt on day 3-4 of AvP after tunneling and pushing someone really hard using arguments that made a lot of sense to me and nobody else buying into them at all, and then eventually giving up and compromising on someone else, and then the next day finally getting that lynch that I wanted but it flipped town and it was like, no one was buying my arguments because I was wrong I guess. It's more of a fear than a new view, like I still feel like Auro is scum, some of it is like emotional instead of logical at this point, but like, demoralizingly, nobody wants to lynch him, so I probably only should be looking at winning the games where I'm wrong about him and he's town. But I'm pretty sure I lose most of those games from us not being able to afford our likely mislynch. I could re-iso the most relevant slots to suggest what people lynch afterwards but I have no credibility or clout in the game right now so it seems very unlikely I'll be deadsheeped at all.
Today looks a lot lot like me or Sujimichi and if Sujimichi is town we can hardly afford it and if he flips scum I'm being sold as always that partner, so more or less it feels like I'm getting lynched today.
Do you have some slot you feel particularly unsure about you'd like get an opinion on to keep in mind?
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:42 am
by popsofctown
That was all at Miss Lynch
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:45 am
by Auro
P2, too much of an adjustment
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:47 am
by Miss Lane
I very much see where you're coming from on Auro. I very much see how he looks a lot like I'd expect scum to look, at least in style. However, his product is often town. The goals he pushes towards seem towny. He would have to be very strong scum to be playing like this as anything but town, which I haven't completely written off yet, but I'm beginning to be very much convinced by his attitude of pushing towards clarity which is generally speaking a solid thing to do as town.
When you return, Chemist why did you vote me here?
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:49 am
by Miss Lane
Some examples include: his interaction with Cheeky seem textbook scum, his questions often seem to be lacking in any sort of real motivation to do anything other than look like you're doing something.
However, he continues to push for clarity, for a town block, he seems to be constantly up to date on the state of the game, the energy he's out in would be difficult to replicate as scum
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:50 am
by Miss Lane
He has almost too solid a sense of exactly how many town reads he needs to have to get away with playing scum - because it feels like he has too many town reads for him to be scum. If you could pick someone else to push today, who?
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:06 am
by popsofctown
If I'm supposed to assume Auro is town and his reads are probably good, then I'd sheep his Sujimichi case.
If I'm supposed to assume Auro is town and misreading me means this is an offgame for him and I should believe in myself, I think there's some good reasons to scumread A Fever You Can't Sweat Out
If I'm supposed to get really scared of mislynching in MyLo I think I push Chemist because he's kind of been a nothing sandwich like he is in most of his games but circumstantial evidences from lots of slots seeming to have town equity + Chemist never getting pushed makes the chances he is scum rather high
The first of those perspectives makes the most sense. If Auro is town I'm having just as bad a game as he is, worse because I'm tunnelier, if he's scum I have the best chance of changing hearts and minds after a missed or abstained vig tomorrow if he had more ownership over a today's lynch.
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:14 am
by Miss Lane
Auro, in BoP 1, how much of Michael Scott was you?
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:15 am
by Miss Lane
Also, do you think I'm a competent mafia player?
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:16 am
by Miss Lane
In post 1342, popsofctown wrote:If I'm supposed to assume Auro is town and his reads are probably good, then I'd sheep his Sujimichi case.
If I'm supposed to assume Auro is town and misreading me means this is an offgame for him and I should believe in myself, I think there's some good reasons to scumread A Fever You Can't Sweat Out
If I'm supposed to get really scared of mislynching in MyLo I think I push Chemist because he's kind of been a nothing sandwich like he is in most of his games but circumstantial evidences from lots of slots seeming to have town equity + Chemist never getting pushed makes the chances he is scum rather high
The first of those perspectives makes the most sense. If Auro is town I'm having just as bad a game as he is, worse because I'm tunnelier, if he's scum I have the best chance of changing hearts and minds after a missed or abstained vig tomorrow if he had more ownership over a today's lynch.
How does the game change perspective if for some reason you are allowed a vig shot and Chemist flips town?
Wait you were under the impression that scum get only four shots?!
I was, to me that's how it seemed the rules were written.
In post 999, Auro wrote:@Miss Lynch do you think cheeky is scum?
This brightened my day and it hasn't been a great one thanks for this.
In post 1041, Auro wrote:Miss Lynch ignores the fact that the timing of Cheeky's woodchuck slot (it was 99% her, or even otherwise, the shot itself no matter who took it) had no relation to the gamestate at the time. Cheeky simply took shots when she thought someone was Mason.
The woodchuck shot had even
less
clear relation to the chuckstate of how clear he was mason, much earlier posts would seem far more relevant for determining he is scum.
I think it makes way more sense to humbly say there was something about the gamestate, but it's not clear without knowing the scumteam.
In post 1122, Sujimichi wrote:Without regard to the validity of your point, why do you think I would "know this is a bad idea?" Further, why do you "think town!Suji is pretty sensible as a player?" As far as I recollect, we have not played a game together.
I can infer from your posts, I occasionally check out parts of other games, I've seen you being nommed for Rising Star, etc.
Bad, I stated in this thread that Sujimichi is a goddess amongst the mortals and that data point is more valuable than all these other data points combined because I am a beacon of insights.
smh
In post 1020, Auro wrote:Miss Lynch, if you lynch me and I flip town, will you follow my desired lynch(es) in the following days?
In post 1021, Auro wrote:Are you willing to sheep my lynch today and then lynch me tomorrow if it flips town?
Why did you say this when we potentially do not have a next phase?
We
mostly
do? If I understand the setup correctly, on a mislynch today, players could race to the thread and yolo-vote one player immediately, possibly achieving a lynch before any scum log on or forcing a scum who isn't the victim to perform a shot (which is doubly dangerous, on a miss both the original wagon target and the scum who missed would die and it becomes a 1 scum game.
In post 1173, Miss Lane wrote:I'd like to point out that the only argument made against me or Sujimi (as far as I can tell) has been an argument of BoP, and no one in this player list has played a significant amount of games with me, and from what I've seen, no one has played a significant amount of games w/ Sujimi, this seems a bit ridiculous FMPOV.
I've played with her thrice.
In post 1249, Miss Lane wrote:Let me preface this by saying that single game meta is a bad sole reason to town or scum read anyone in a mafia game outside of early day 1, and especially in potential Mylo. That said, I skimmed Suji's recent scum game and recent town game and found too few similarities between either to support a scum read on them except in the most dire circumstances. The scum game bring used lasted only 9 days and seems to be a mechanically run game - a game where posting a mere 30 times in 13 pages isn't really a whole lot to write home about, and a game where a player who seems to not be making much of an impression at all will likely fly mostly under the radar. In addition, Suji's posting in that game seem to be largely concerned with her scum buddy, with mastina coming up in roughly 70% of her posts. I don't see a correlation here with her and cheeky. In fact, she mentions Cheeky almost not at all. Combine this with the fact that her most recent town game she also posted largely like this - the only notable lacking factor from my skin is that she's less aggressive and controlling in this game - could be explained by a plethora of reasons. Fearmongering over Suji's play in this instance does not seem like a good move to make, especially when there are 9 days left to allow a more reasonable approach to make an impact.
If you didn't examine this game closely it is potentially really relevant that that game had a special mechanic where mastina got to be a scum dayvig (which is extremely town indicative in a micro) but was guaranteed to die n2 and flip scum (with no explanation) so I would think that strongly incentivizes you to interact with the scumpartner.
Absol is a pokemon. It is cosmetically very appealing. Its abilities, at least when it was first released, are underwhelming and don't tie together into the clearest purposes ever which is why I found the question really funny.
In post 1271, Auro wrote:@Pops/Chemist: would you vote Suji? If not, why not?
If not why, why not: because you are supporting the lynch
Would you vote for Suji: maaaaaaybe. I don't feel like she's townspewed since early day 1 and I agree that asking for us to look on wagon without even beginning to steer the onwagon crosshairs seems off.
Unlike Egix I don't think this could be bussing-Auro so the more necessary element is for me to possibly be willing to vote Suji is changing my mind about Auro or being assured that he'd be vengelynched for mislynching Sujimichi. Neither seems really likely. Actually the more I think about it it's possible my win condition for this game is posting bizarre things designed to somehow cause Auro to shoot a VT.
In post 1304, Auro wrote:Pops, I'm curious - what do you think of my abilities as a town player? I'd like a honest answer. I won't be offended
I think you're like, slightly above average maybe. I think you're not as good at generating a protown gamestate but have good solving.
Auro scumcases Sujimichi
A lot of this is really reasonable and plausible. I feel like I can buy a lot of what is being sold here anytime you're town. Anytime you're scum it's just a good concoction.
Can you tell me, why have you scumread me more than Sujimichi all game when this seems much more coherent than your stances on me?
_________________________________________________________________________
I am feeling way worse about ML's slot today. Auro's defense of her doesn't seem to have as much foundation as it needs. I think maybe there is just an
Auro/Miss Lynch/(CSF>Klick) scumteam.
Lynching Sujimichi into Chemist, as one of the plausible-looking outcomes right now, would be a loss for that.
Ok Pops Confirmed scum.
We’ll lynch them after Suji.
The SUPERSQUAD are all Town Masons.
Galactic Mastermind (TSE) - Swift Deity (Auro) - Electrical Current (Klick) - Alpha Cat (CSF)
