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Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:13 am
by Trendall
I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all. Like a person says something which is totally inconceivable in their position, and you eliminate them and they turn out to be town. Or someone reacts in a way that is just like, too good for it to be mafia or too inconceivable given the player's playstyle or whatever, and then bam they turn out to be mafia. And the amount of times that sorta thing happens racks up over a load of games, and then at that point it seems unwise to give too much credence to arguments about 'reactions', as they've proven to be unreliable a lot of times.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:28 am
by Frogsterking
I've also played thousands of games on EM and had similar experiences, and my takeaway was slightly different than yours, my takeaway was to never trust AtE and that if you play enough games you'll see every kind of reaction, but some reactions are really unlikely compared to others. I'd classify a real-time response to a guilty "why did it take you so long to out?" with 0 follow up as a confession, and that the player believed they'd been caught, and their main concern was that I wasted their time while they were pretending to town tell. If you're running a game with a player list there that is actually solid then I would expect to get the majority of the town behind me on that point and the remaining players to be likely scum, though even the scum might choose to bus at that point.
I agree with the point that reaction tests are usually bad and if you ran that same scenario like 500 times you'd eventually get a player who would react that way, so I don't think it's impossible that Bugs is town, it just seems EXTREMELY unlikely. Part of the reason I thought a reaction test would be useful is because I knew you, Bugs, and maybe Mom were reading the thread at that point and reaction tests are not in meta here so it would be more unexpected.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:31 am
by Lunar Martian
Frogster that case on me is garbage. I didn't try to pocket Trendall or leave open the option of pushing Trendall. I scumread Trendall the whole time, which is a pretty bad way to pocket someone. I was just trying to be nice after someone else decided to be a bit rude. Just yesterday you acknowledged that you went too far and that I was fair in my criticism of you, but today you come and try to spin it as me discrediting you. What happened there? And then part of your case is that I ignored the guilties. I was already voting there, so why is it a bad thing that I kept trying to solve the game outside the guilties? Especially when one of them turned out to be fake.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:33 am
by Lunar Martian
Hmm actually I didn't move my vote. VOTE: Mom
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:40 am
by Frogsterking
In post 1325, Trendall wrote:I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all. Like a person says something which is totally inconceivable in their position, and you eliminate them and they turn out to be town. Or someone reacts in a way that is just like, too good for it to be mafia or too inconceivable given the player's playstyle or whatever, and then bam they turn out to be mafia. And the amount of times that sorta thing happens racks up over a load of games, and then at that point it seems unwise to give too much credence to arguments about 'reactions', as they've proven to be unreliable a lot of times.
In post 1326, Frogsterking wrote:I've also played thousands of games on EM and had similar experiences, and my takeaway was slightly different than yours, my takeaway was to never trust AtE and that if you play enough games you'll see every kind of reaction, but some reactions are really unlikely compared to others. I'd classify a real-time response to a guilty "why did it take you so long to out?" with 0 follow up as a confession, and that the player believed they'd been caught, and their main concern was that I wasted their time while they were pretending to town tell. If you're running a game with a player list there that is actually solid then I would expect to get the majority of the town behind me on that point and the remaining players to be likely scum, though even the scum might choose to bus at that point.
I agree with the point that reaction tests are usually bad and if you ran that same scenario like 500 times you'd eventually get a player who would react that way, so I don't think it's impossible that Bugs is town, it just seems EXTREMELY unlikely. Part of the reason I thought a reaction test would be useful is because I knew you, Bugs, and maybe Mom were reading the thread at that point and reaction tests are not in meta here so it would be more unexpected.
On the topic of EM and reaction tests I want to add that I've spent somewhere between like, four to six thousand HOURS across different accounts playing EM since I was in high school, my #1 fav setup is Basic Variant with the godfather and two millers, and I'm worth several times more as a scum hunter on EM than I am here.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:43 am
by Trendall
I'm sure 'why did you take so long to out?' is a fairly common reaction and doesn't imply what you think it does.
Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:47 am
by Lunar Martian
Frogster as someone who seems incredibly prone to confirmation bias, I think maybe you should be extra careful with reaction tests. Either you are a Mafia God who basically solved the game Day 1, or you saw exactly what you wanted to see from that test. I still think you're more likely to be Town than Mafia, but I feel like you're verging on being a liability.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:58 am
by Frogsterking
In post 1327, Lunar Martian wrote:Frogster that case on me is garbage. I didn't try to pocket Trendall or leave open the option of pushing Trendall. I scumread Trendall the whole time, which is a pretty bad way to pocket someone. I was just trying to be nice after someone else decided to be a bit rude. Just yesterday you acknowledged that you went too far and that I was fair in my criticism of you, but today you come and try to spin it as me discrediting you. What happened there? And then part of your case is that I ignored the guilties. I was already voting there, so why is it a bad thing that I kept trying to solve the game outside the guilties? Especially when one of them turned out to be fake.
I agree that I made a huge mistake, and I don't think your immediate follow up where you were directly addressing Trendall was an attempt to pocket, I think those things were genuine in contrast to what you said immediately after. I was trying to just quote the relevant parts to my case but they kind of blur together and I messed it up a little bit.
I think between you and Trendall at this point you are less likely to be town than Trendall. I don't think you can get credit for ignoring a fake guilty you had no reason to believe is fake at the time, that sounds more like TMI, and the way you continued pushing your case looks more to me like you were not really surprised that Momrangal is scum, even though you hadn't suspected her before, and she is pushing one of your same targets, Gamma, and it doesn't look like that gave you much pause either.
Do you not see how suspicious this looks?
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:34 am
by OutWorldER
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:35 am
by OutWorldER
the only thing I feel is a prevailing sense of disappointment
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:38 am
by Lunar Martian
In post 1332, Frogsterking wrote: In post 1327, Lunar Martian wrote:Frogster that case on me is garbage. I didn't try to pocket Trendall or leave open the option of pushing Trendall. I scumread Trendall the whole time, which is a pretty bad way to pocket someone. I was just trying to be nice after someone else decided to be a bit rude. Just yesterday you acknowledged that you went too far and that I was fair in my criticism of you, but today you come and try to spin it as me discrediting you. What happened there? And then part of your case is that I ignored the guilties. I was already voting there, so why is it a bad thing that I kept trying to solve the game outside the guilties? Especially when one of them turned out to be fake.
I agree that I made a huge mistake, and I don't think your immediate follow up where you were directly addressing Trendall was an attempt to pocket, I think those things were genuine in contrast to what you said immediately after. I was trying to just quote the relevant parts to my case but they kind of blur together and I messed it up a little bit.
I think between you and Trendall at this point you are less likely to be town than Trendall. I don't think you can get credit for ignoring a fake guilty you had no reason to believe is fake at the time, that sounds more like TMI, and the way you continued pushing your case looks more to me like you were not really surprised that Momrangal is scum, even though you hadn't suspected her before, and she is pushing one of your same targets, Gamma, and it doesn't look like that gave you much pause either.
Do you not see how suspicious this looks?
It's only TMI if bugs is Town. And I don't know if bugs is Town. But you would have to know bugs is Town to say that it's TMI. I didn't react to the guilties because neither one was surprising. They didn't really change anything. Prior to the guilties my four picks for Mafia were Mom, bugs, Trendall, and Gamma. After the guilties it was the same four. Now maybe add you in because you're acting strange as hell and I don't see this kind of ridiculous logic and tunneling coming from someone who really wants to solve the game. It's probably Town and you're just confused or emotional or something, but if you're Town at this point I think your play is awful and you should take a step back and rethink.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:41 am
by Frogsterking
In post 1330, Trendall wrote:#1
I'm sure 'why did you take so long to out?' is a fairly common reaction and doesn't imply what you think it does.
#2
Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.
#1
"why did you take so long to out?" is a great example of a common response from a player who is NOT being guiltied, "I'm not mafia! I'm the xyz! vote: frogsterking" is an example of a common response from a player being wrongly guiltied.
The only times I've ever seen a guiltied player only response be "why did it take you so long to out?" was when they were guilty. And it's far from a common response. I'm not denying that it could happen, and I'm sure at some point it will happen, it just seems very unlikely to be the case in most examples.
#2
You said you're a player that just automatically votes anyone who fake claims and did not offer any rationale for this. I offered you reasons to the contrary and suggested that your position is dogmatic.
You then referenced the thousands of games on EM to show that you have some experience with reaction tests and that you've seen a lot of them and determined them to be worthless, defeating the point of fake claiming in the first place, defending your position of automatically voting fake claimers.
I said that I also have lots of experience with fake claims and reaction tests and determined them to have utility in some situations, such as this one.
Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests, you just wanted to help me understand your original perspective, which is that you automatically vote anyone who fake claims without any kind of rationale, and added that it's impossible to change your mind, a position I described as dogmatic offered some reasoning and counterexamples for.
Is this accurate?
In post 1331, Lunar Martian wrote:Frogster as someone who seems incredibly prone to confirmation bias, I think maybe you should be extra careful with reaction tests. Either you are a Mafia God who basically solved the game Day 1, or you saw exactly what you wanted to see from that test. I still think you're more likely to be Town than Mafia, but I feel like you're verging on being a liability.
Lunar my initial read on Bugs both days was that they are town, and both days I was dissuaded from that belief because Luca made better points and I townread them very strongly, I was unsure of Bugs because I had two townreads contradicting each other after Galreon said Bugs was town, at the point of time I did the reaction test I was just as predisposed to view Trendall, Momrangal, and Bugs as scum, but Bugs reaction was decidedly worse because it doesn't make that much sense. If they already know that they're town then they can assume I'm scum, so the answer to their question of "why did it take you so long to out?" is that I'm scum and it seemed like a good time to make a push on them. It's a totally pointless question and completely unlikely Bugs would be town and not vote me, or say it's untrue, or really do anything to stop it.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:47 am
by Lunar Martian
Shower thought: Trendall's arguments with me very much feel like Trendall thinks I have bad intentions in the argument, which suggests that Trendall legitimately thinks I'm Mafia, which means Trendall must be Town. That said, Trendall's latest posts saying "I'm Town" repeatedly make me think Trendall is Mafia. Trendall is probably Town, but I'm going to need to rethink that. Getting other perspectives might be helpful too since I'm a little bit too close to get a good read at this point, since I can't see the bigger picture outside of my fight with Trendall very much.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:51 am
by Frogsterking
In post 1335, Lunar Martian wrote: In post 1332, Frogsterking wrote: In post 1327, Lunar Martian wrote:Frogster that case on me is garbage. I didn't try to pocket Trendall or leave open the option of pushing Trendall. I scumread Trendall the whole time, which is a pretty bad way to pocket someone. I was just trying to be nice after someone else decided to be a bit rude. Just yesterday you acknowledged that you went too far and that I was fair in my criticism of you, but today you come and try to spin it as me discrediting you. What happened there? And then part of your case is that I ignored the guilties. I was already voting there, so why is it a bad thing that I kept trying to solve the game outside the guilties? Especially when one of them turned out to be fake.
I agree that I made a huge mistake, and I don't think your immediate follow up where you were directly addressing Trendall was an attempt to pocket, I think those things were genuine in contrast to what you said immediately after. I was trying to just quote the relevant parts to my case but they kind of blur together and I messed it up a little bit.
I think between you and Trendall at this point you are less likely to be town than Trendall. I don't think you can get credit for ignoring a fake guilty you had no reason to believe is fake at the time, that sounds more like TMI, and the way you continued pushing your case looks more to me like you were not really surprised that Momrangal is scum, even though you hadn't suspected her before, and she is pushing one of your same targets, Gamma, and it doesn't look like that gave you much pause either.
Do you not see how suspicious this looks?
It's only TMI if bugs is Town. And I don't know if bugs is Town. But you would have to know bugs is Town to say that it's TMI.
I didn't react to the guilties because neither one was surprising. They didn't really change anything. Prior to the guilties my four picks for Mafia were Mom, bugs, Trendall, and Gamma. After the guilties it was the same four. Now maybe add you in because you're acting strange as hell and I don't see this kind of ridiculous logic and tunneling coming from someone who really wants to solve the game.
It's probably Town and you're just confused or emotional or something, but if you're Town at this point I think your play is awful and you should take a step back and rethink.
Okay Lunar I'm open to you being town but these first and last sentences are wrong and I want to see if you are able to think on your feet here.
Why do you think I did the reaction test, why do you think I determined that Bugs was more likely to be scum, and from there that you're more likely to be scum than either Gamma or Trendall?
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:55 am
by Lunar Martian
I can't TMI bugs' alignment for 2 reasons:
1) It's unclear whether bugs is Town or not.
2) I don't know bugs' alignment.
You therefore can't say I'm TMI'ing bugs being Town without knowing bugs' alignment yourself.
The last bit is my subjective evaluation of your play. It can't be wrong, as there is no right answer per se.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:01 am
by Frogsterking
In post 1339, Lunar Martian wrote:#1
I can't TMI bugs' alignment for 2 reasons:
1) It's unclear whether bugs is Town or not.
2) I don't know bugs' alignment.
You therefore can't say I'm TMI'ing bugs being Town without knowing bugs' alignment yourself.
#2
The last bit is my subjective evaluation of your play. It can't be wrong, as there is no right answer per se.
#1
This is hilarious and I will get back to this in a moment.
#2
Yes.. now the same way you're asking me to take a step back and re evaluate my position on the game, which I'm doing by asking you this very question, I want to see if you're willing/capable of imagining what might have been going through my mind when I made that play, and why I drew the conclusions I did. It's called cognitive empathy. You can just describe it the same way you described the whole TMI thing:
1) boom
2) boom
3) bing
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:12 am
by Gamma Emerald
I see what frogster’s saying about the bugs reaction
Idk if I can really do anything to help sell the point rn
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:32 am
by Frogsterking
Shoot I guess you left to take a shower or something. I was trying to see if I could get you to keep town slipping further. I think this might have been a town slip:
In post 1335, Lunar Martian wrote: In post 1332, Frogsterking wrote: In post 1327, Lunar Martian wrote:Frogster that case on me is garbage. I didn't try to pocket Trendall or leave open the option of pushing Trendall. I scumread Trendall the whole time, which is a pretty bad way to pocket someone. I was just trying to be nice after someone else decided to be a bit rude. Just yesterday you acknowledged that you went too far and that I was fair in my criticism of you, but today you come and try to spin it as me discrediting you. What happened there? And then part of your case is that I ignored the guilties. I was already voting there, so why is it a bad thing that I kept trying to solve the game outside the guilties? Especially when one of them turned out to be fake.
I agree that I made a huge mistake, and I don't think your immediate follow up where you were directly addressing Trendall was an attempt to pocket, I think those things were genuine in contrast to what you said immediately after. I was trying to just quote the relevant parts to my case but they kind of blur together and I messed it up a little bit.
I think between you and Trendall at this point you are less likely to be town than Trendall. I don't think you can get credit for ignoring a fake guilty you had no reason to believe is fake at the time, that sounds more like TMI, and the way you continued pushing your case looks more to me like you were not really surprised that Momrangal is scum, even though you hadn't suspected her before, and she is pushing one of your same targets, Gamma, and it doesn't look like that gave you much pause either.
Do you not see how suspicious this looks?
It's only TMI if bugs is Town. And I don't know if bugs is Town. But you would have to know bugs is Town to say that it's TMI. I didn't react to the guilties because neither one was surprising. They didn't really change anything. Prior to the guilties my four picks for Mafia were Mom, bugs, Trendall, and Gamma. After the guilties it was the same four. Now maybe add you in because you're acting strange as hell and I don't see this kind of ridiculous logic and tunneling coming from someone who really wants to solve the game. It's probably Town and you're just confused or emotional or something, but if you're Town at this point I think your play is awful and you should take a step back and rethink.
I think it was a town slip because you couldn't understand why I called your response to the guilties TMI..
The point I was making was that you were TMI because you already knew Bugs and Mom were SCUM because YOU were scum, so you had no REACTION to the guilties and assumed they were TRUE, and continued fighting to stay alive the exact SAME way you had before, because you were last one to be confirmed, which you already expected as a possibility.
I wasn't saying that you were fighting to stay alive the exact SAME way because you had TMI and knew Bugs is TOWN and you were just IGNORING the fact that you knew I was fake claiming. In that scenario it would less sense for you to continue on the way you did.
The fact you seemed to genuinely not understand this point at all and argue against it with me in real time makes me believe that you just TOWN slipped and are town.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:35 am
by Frogsterking
Thank you Gamma. I think the point about the reaction is more solid along with Luca's case, where there are reasons to believe Bugs is scum anyway, and the fact they were already on the ropes made them more likely to give up when I outted the guilty.
Do you agree with the point I just made about Lunar town slipping as well Gamma?
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:40 am
by Gamma Emerald
It seems to make sense? I don't entirely see it but it checks out enough rn.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:59 am
by Trendall
In post 1336, Frogsterking wrote:Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests
This doesn't remotely resemble anything I've said. Sorry, this is a waste of my time.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:03 am
by Frogsterking
Town:
Town Block, Luca, LunarMartian
Null:
Trendall, OutWorldER
Scum:
Momrangal, Bugspray
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:05 am
by Frogsterking
In post 1325, Trendall wrote:I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all.
In post 1330, Trendall wrote:
Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.
In post 1345, Trendall wrote: In post 1336, Frogsterking wrote:Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests
This doesn't remotely resemble anything I've said. Sorry, this is a waste of my time.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:10 am
by Frogsterking
In post 1325, Trendall wrote:I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all.
In post 1330, Trendall wrote:
Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.
In post 1345, Trendall wrote: In post 1336, Frogsterking wrote:Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests
This doesn't remotely resemble anything I've said. Sorry, this is a waste of my time.
In post 1325, Trendall wrote:I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all.
In post 1330, Trendall wrote:
Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.
In post 1345, Trendall wrote: In post 1336, Frogsterking wrote:Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests
This doesn't remotely resemble anything I've said. Sorry, this is a waste of my time.
In post 1325, Trendall wrote:I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all.
In post 1330, Trendall wrote:
Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.
In post 1345, Trendall wrote: In post 1336, Frogsterking wrote:Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests
This doesn't remotely resemble anything I've said. Sorry, this is a waste of my time.
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:28 am
by Frogsterking
Trendall have you or have you not seen thousands of reaction tests before, and how many times did an innocent player respond to a guilty with "why did it take you so long to out?"
We have both claimed to play thousands of games on a website where reaction testing is common, and I've seen guilty players respond that way a handful of times, and never an inno, and yet you're claiming it happens all the time?
And then when I press further you say I'm wasting your time and you never said this stuff? I just quoted you saying it.
Are you covering for Bugs here to avoid autoloss because you can't stop all of the investigations tonight?
