Mafiascum.net

In post 1320, Something_Smart wrote:D2 $500 on watcher and got it.
N2 did not act.
N3 watched Smoke & Mirrors, no visits.

Wait, so what you're saying is.

You bought the 2x Watcher.
And on a night with NO NINJA POSSIBLE (the ninja didn't exist until D3), with us being DOWN ONE SCUM (meaning a guilty on scum N2 brings scum down to one scum alive), and there being AN OBVIOUS NIGHTKILL (Distance was the obvious kill), you chose to holster that role which you only had two shots of...

...And then, AFTER A NINJA WAS IN THE GAME (meaning that there's an obvious problem with watching the nightkill), instead of holstering until the ninja was dead, you THEN used it on the second-most-likely nightkill other than marcistar who is the obvious choice to say you used it on if you're planning on claiming the role without visiting the nightkill, WHILE THERE IS AN ALIVE NINJA no less (basically, claiming watcher on marcistar would mean a 1v1 between Something_Smart and someone else, beit a claimed guilty or a claimed no-visit which is a guilty on VFP so Something_Smart cannot target the nightkill of marcistar)...

...And that all through D3 you had almost no reaction to my outrage to the watcher being taken for $500 and then not used competently (other than mentioning that not all people had chimed in when I made that post)?

For a mechanics-oriented player, this smells of bullshit, so it might actually just be VFP + Something_Smart, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut...

1: VFP the ninja needs to die first, and,
2: With the claim of having one shot left, Something_Smart is mechanically better to keep alive today because it limits his options.

I WILL say that this is dismal play from Something_Smart regardless of his alignment tho--if he's scum he should know this is a terrible-ass claim that borderline scumfirms him;
If he's town then out-bidding me on the Watcher when I fucking knew how to use it is basically criminal especially with the holster claimed on N2 when we were down one scum and the Ninja was not in play yet and the claimed watch on Smoke & Mirrors is, while plausible to town, also the watch most convenient for scum to claim.

In either case it's bad from him, and I could make an argument for either--but overall I'm instantly putting him in the suspect pool. He may still be town yet, it could be Gamma+VFP, but VFP+S_S could be it as well.

I'm not really ready to make the call on who VFP is scum with, but the play today is to eliminate VFP and then coordinate the best usage of actions, including imaginality's roleblock and Something_Smart's second watch shot.

(I will say tho that overall balance of probability I thing S_S scum > Gamma scum here. Something_Smart's negligence-if-town and the convenience of ease in being scum, not to mention having defended VFP, mean that overall I would favor him as scum over Gamma right now. Something_Smart's play here as a mechanical player is bad regardless of his alignment, but it is much much much worse as town than as scum; if he is scum, he could have reasons to believe claiming may make him town, he could believe that claiming gives him more of an edge than faking having no role, he could believe that the claim is the lesser of two evils, he could make the claim and hope nobody figures out why it's so egregious, etc.; there's half a dozen reasons why he could believe that he needs to make the claim as scum, even though it is a very bad claim. But if he is town, the negligence is borderline criminal in his usage of the role. So while it could come from Something_Smart as either alignment and you can argue it either way, there's more in favor of him making the bad claim as scum than making that bad of choices as town in my opinion. Ultimately, it doesn't matter tho; we're eliminating VFP today, not Something_Smart, so whether S_S is scum is left to tomorrow, not today.)

Btw RE: the track:
Since scum, presumably, attempted to outbid me on the jailkeeper, but failed, they would know a town player got the jailkeeper.
If the jailkeeper was used to protect, they would assume that it was on Smoke & Mirrors, the more universal townread and loudest voice, which again is why a watch there is convenient.

If the jailkeeper was used offensively rather than defensively, though? Who would the scum think would be blocked? VFP, the person with the ninja and a universal scumread, or the other scum?

OBVIOUSLY, with the scum not having control of the jailkeeper, they would know that IF the jailkeeper were used offensively, that the jailkeeper would be roleblocking VFP, necessitating the non-ninja to perform the nightkill.

Which means that in all probability, the clear on SSBM is in fact a clear. While it's obviously possible scum, knowing that they didn't get the jailkeeper, chose to holster out of fear of the jailkeeper, them deliberately no-killing guarantees the jailkeeper agency; if the jailkeeper was used offensively on VFP, VFP's a guaranteed elimination; if the jailkeeper was used defensively on town, then the town player is cleared from the jailkeeper; this, regardless of an attempt to kill or not.

In other words: scum have holstered, but they had more reason to take a shot than to not. Meaning that the clear while not absolute, I still trust as being reasonably likely to be correct.

So at this point:
Smoke and Mirrors = marcistar = ssbm >> imaginality >>> Gamma Emerald Something_Smart >>>>>>>> VFP to me.

votecount 4.3

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - VFP
Something_Smart (2) ssbm_Kyouko - Marcistar
imaginality (1) - Gamma Emerald
marcistar (0)
VFP (2) - mastina - smoke and mirrors

not voting (2) - Everyone else

day 4 ends in (expired on 2021-07-07 05:21:30)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

2-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point is 200

1-shot Neighborizer the top bid at mid point is 0

2-shot Neighborizer the top bid at mid point is 0

2-shot Hitman the top bid at mid point is 0

Agreed that not watching N2 seems scummy as hell - the same argument applies for why cop (if town) needed to use their shot before godfather appeared.

Also if SS was concerned about being blocked by me, that was more of a risk N3 than N2 but he used his power N3.

Something else: this means if SS is scum, he only has 300 left. For those who think VFP is scum, he only has 300 left too. So if we're right then hopefully a bid of 301 or more is enough to secure Tracker and/or Hitman if we want to win those roles/keep them out of scum's hands.


I'm ready to re-vote Something_Smart. I want to reread on VFP first though because I do see the logic that if VFP's scummy, it's better to eliminate VFP first, SS second. Nighttime here so I'll be back in 7 hours or so. I still think there's value in continuing the popcorn claim also. Since I might be asleep when it's on me, and mine is mostly pretty obvious already:

D1: bid 410 on 1-shot roleblocker, won it, haven't used it yet
D2: bid 90 on 1-shot auction detective, didn't win it
D3: bid 90 on 2-shot ninja, didn't win it
D4: bid 90 on 1-shot neighbourizer

People shouldn't be spending 301 on hitman when there's a day vig tomorrow.

In post 1331, VFP wrote:People shouldn't be spending 301 on hitman when there's a day vig tomorrow.

Today is the last auction, only 16/20 roles get auctioned across 4 days

Fair enough, then there is reason.

This game is just a loss then.

S_S, why spend the full 500 on watcher if you didn't plan on using it right away? Using all of your money (if you're town) implies to me that you really wanted the power for some reason. What were you hoping to find when you chose to watch S&M - answer with the player(s) and the action(s) you thought might have been coming their way, and explain why you thought that.

VFP, why did you use the Ninja power last night and why bother announcing it this morning?

VOTE: VFP

btw @Mastina I'm looking at my notes page now and it occurs to me that if scum bought 2-shot AD as I believe they did, then that scum has 350 left, so if you want to outbid that scum you have to bid 350 before they do

In post 1336, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:VFP, why did you use the Ninja power last night and why bother announcing it this morning?

VOTE: VFP

Why not?

I don't have a ton of time right now, but a few important things to point out:
- Watcher is a very strong power, arguably the strongest in the game. But it gets better as the game goes on, and I was in no danger of dying at night. So it is entirely reasonable to put 500 on it and then not use it immediately. (And I was not afraid of being blocked by imaginality, unless he was scum. I would assume that he knows to save it until one scum remains.)

- Mastina, I applause your game sense if you were available to predict both the N2 and N3 kills; I don't have that, and I hadn't even been in the game very long. I didn't expect to be able to predict the N2 kill, which turned out to be accurate, because Distance was my strongest scumread.

- Ninja doesn't make watcher useless; in fact, knowing who has the ninja makes the ninja useless. If I see someone die and nobody visited them, that's just as much a guilty on VFP as if I saw anyone else visit.

In post 1335, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:What were you hoping to find when you chose to watch S&M

The NK, obviously. They were one of my top townreads, they're both strong players, and they had money unaccounted for.

In post 1339, Something_Smart wrote:I don't have a ton of time right now, but a few important things to point out:
- Watcher is a very strong power, arguably the strongest in the game. But it gets better as the game goes on, and I was in no danger of dying at night. So it is entirely reasonable to put 500 on it and then not use it immediately. (And I was not afraid of being blocked by imaginality, unless he was scum. I would assume that he knows to save it until one scum remains.)

- Mastina, I applause your game sense if you were available to predict both the N2 and N3 kills; I don't have that, and I hadn't even been in the game very long. I didn't expect to be able to predict the N2 kill, which turned out to be accurate, because Distance was my strongest scumread.

-

Ninja doesn't make watcher useless; in fact, knowing who has the ninja makes the ninja useless. If I see someone die and nobody visited them, that's just as much a guilty on VFP as if I saw anyone else visit

.

Oh shit I didn't realize this

In post 1338, VFP wrote:

In post 1336, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:VFP, why did you use the Ninja power last night and why bother announcing it this morning?

VOTE: VFP

Why not?

Why to not use it: you have no powers to hide if you're town, so using it provides no benefit to you
Why to not declare you used it: there is no town reason to use the power, as stated above, so declaring you used it right away looks like trying to preempt any results a tracker/watcher might claim.

In post 1340, Something_Smart wrote:

In post 1335, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:What were you hoping to find when you chose to watch S&M

The NK, obviously. They were one of my top townreads, they're both strong players, and they had money unaccounted for.

Who do you think tries to kill S&M N3? Not necessarily who would perform the action, but who has motive to have the scumteam kill them?

In post 1342, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Why to not use it: you have no powers to hide if you're town, so using it provides no benefit to you
Why to not declare you used it: there is no town reason to use the power, as stated above, so declaring you used it right away looks like trying to preempt any results a tracker/watcher might claim.

What kind of logic is this that I'm preempting a result from a tracker or watcher?
If I'm scum it's going to be the same result to if I'm town

But then again, let's face it, even town haven't been providing actual reasons for scum this game, so I think you're all good, and it's actually not the most ridicules thing said so far.

I'll just make this my last post since I won't get on for end of day anyway.

Gamma and Mastina are basically locktown.
I believe SS here and most likely town. Midday watcher was cheap, so I doubt scum went too high here expecting a 500 bid.
Smoke and Mirrors is more or less town, just lost.

That leaves SSBM, who is scum.
Then work out the last one between Marci and imaginality.
I'd favour Marci who was most likely blocked from killing. Marci was less likely to be tracked than SSBM (although plausible to watch)
You can argue that imaginality SSBM/imaginality kill Marci, but with a town watcher in this situation, I doubt that ever happens.

Someone who "knows" Marci's scum game, I'd say it's probably this.

Either listen to me and win, or just do what you have been doing all game and lose.
If I flip town, of course.

In post 1065, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:No, I will be town’s hero.

In post 1334, VFP wrote:This game is just a loss then.

?

VOTE: vfp

yeah I think S_S is probably town here
VOTE: VFP
I wanna know what nancy is thinking in all this but atp this is fine because as I said, VFP's CB vote was the one that bothers me the most

I think it's possible S_S is truthful here, meaning either Distance or living scum bought Cop. In either scenario it makes sense to try to kill or jail conftown marci to stop her from digging distance and further confirming herself.

I had a thought:
Scum!mastina buying JK, jailing Marci to prevent the dig, and the team no-killing is not out of the realm of possibility here, as it puts the game to evens right before mlimlo, and dodges any tracker/watcher guilties. However, if the daykill had appeared and we were at 7 instead of 8 today, we would be in mlimlo, assuming scum had the money to buy daykill. So I think anyone else that is having that paranoia on mastina should consider that if daykill appeared and scum killed last night, we would be in a bad spot.

I think Marci was probably targeted for the kill for her reads, or because scum was afraid of the dig going through. Unless the team is exactly Marci/mastina, scum!marci can just claim she dug distance and he had the cop. Then all town would believe he cleared her based on his "meta dive" crumb.

If the team is marci/mastina, this claim brings more towncred to mastina in preparation for mlimlo.

We cant lim S_S today, as scum will have to choose between killing him or risking him catching the killer toNight. Roleblock can no longer clear anyone with an unknown 2-shot hitman on the loose, so mechanically it's fine to lim Imaginality today. I think limming in VFP/Imaginality is best today, preferably VFP by dayplay.

Town!Mastina is the only one that can outbid scum for tracker today, assuming scum bought 2-shot.AD

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD and as I wrote it out, only mastina and marci can afford that.

Town!Dogecoin balances
Gamma - 1
Mastina - 350
S&M - 0
Kyouko - 74
S_S - 0
Imaginality - 90
Marcistar - 275
VFP - 0

Scum have 300 more than that and 2-shot AD went for 450. Meaning only town with 150 town!coins can afford to have bought 2-shot AD.

VOTE: mastina

Wish CB had been here to talk yesterDay as they could have bought 2-shot AD as well