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Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2009 5:51 pm
by StarKiss
In other words, why not have the more townish-looking players bully the scummy one.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:41 pm
by Talilan
Stunting you was just one of the possible scenarios I imagined. I was only guessing how it would play out. 3 scum off camera would have been fine. They would've had to lynch one or risk exposing all three.
StarKiss, what do you think about Hewitt? More likely scum or more likely town?
I've been having internet connection probs at home which is such a pain because I wanted to read over most of the game by now :/
~Tal
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:45 pm
by Talilan
It's the last week of school (Nah I'm not a student, I am school secretary/office manager). The rest of my week is hellish.. I will probably only get quality re-reading time in the 24 hours prior to deadline (and even then I have a Christmas party I'm s'posed to be at).
So probably nothing new from me until "tomorrow".
I do wonder if StarKiss is a better first lynch than Hewitt. The way CKD's lynch went down made me wonder about a StarKiss/Thesp link. I don't want to be suckered by Hewitt if he's trying to play us though. Has anyone played with him before and is he normally so negative?
~Tal
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 12:46 am
by VP Baltar
I've played with Hewitt before and I've seen him get pretty angry as both town and scum...but I don't recall him being so fatalistic. I'd probably be willing to lynch Starkiss first I suppose.
@Starkiss-leaving 3 scum off stage would have been an optimal strategy that scene. It would have given us a good chance of winning the onstage and at the same time forced the scumbags to lynch one of their own (though the downside of that I guess would be giving them mild town points for lynching scum).
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 2:15 am
by Mr. Grey
Vote Count:
4 to lynch.
hewitt: 2 (Mighty Orbots, VP Baltar)
StarKiss: 1 (Thesp)
Talilan: 1 (hewitt)
Not Voting: 3 (StarKiss, Talilan, zu_Faul)
Current Condorcet Winner:
None. Current Smith Set: hewitt, Mighty Orbots, StarKiss, Talilan, Thesp, VP Baltar
To view the complete table of pairwise results, put the following information into this form.
1,hewitt
2,Mighty Orbots
3,StarKiss
4,Talilan
5,Thesp
6,VP Baltar
7,zu_Faul
8,No Lynch
1:4>3>2>5>6>7>8>1
1:1>3=4=5=6=7=8>2
1:1=2=4=5=6=7=8>3
1:1=2=3=5=6=7=8>4
1:3>1=2>4=6>8>5=7
1:1>3>5>4>2>8>6=7
1:3>6>2>1>4>5>8>7
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 3:19 am
by hewitt
Talilan wrote:I do wonder if StarKiss is a better first lynch than Hewitt. The way CKD's lynch went down made me wonder about a StarKiss/Thesp link. I don't want to be suckered by Hewitt if he's trying to play us though. Has anyone played with him before and is he normally so negative
If you think I'm suckering you then clearly you should be voting for me. Why the change of heart all the sudden? Why Starkiss and not me? What has Starkiss done that is so overwhelmingly more anti-town than me? Do I not have the most anti-town voting record? Isn't that what you were basing this whole thing off anyway?
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 4:25 am
by VP Baltar
For hewitt (and everyone else):
DGB
Scene 1: Off-Stage-Good Decision (Lynch Gaspar)
Scene 2: Off-Stage-Good Decision (Lynch KY Krew)
Scene 3: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Pick Crone)
Scene 4: On-Stage-No Decision
Scene 5: Off-Stage-No Decision
Scene 6: On-Stage-No Decision
We can see here that DGB made it her goal in this game to never take a side. She was prodding people toward bad decisions and then simply wasn't voting. Scene 1 was really the only time where she took a definitive stance against a wrong decision, and in hindsight we can see that is even to lynch a townie. If you look at her voting on the KY Krew lynch, she waited until the last possible moment to vote for him even though she was saying he was scum.
Thok
Scene 1: Off-Stage-Good Decision (Lynch DGB)
Scene 2: On-Stage-Good Decision (Choose Door 1)
Scene 3: On-Stage-No Decision
Scene 4: On-Stage-Good Decision (Don't Push the Button)
Scene 5: On-Stage-No Decision
Scene 6: On-Stage-No Decision
Thok's voting record would somewhat support your theory hewitt, and I would believe that the scum were grooming him for endgame. There isn't anyone who is alive now that has a better voting record than him. However, you should also note the 2/3 of his good decisions come on scenes where the town made the wrong decision. Not only does this look too good to be true, but it makes me suspect that he had to have had at least one buddy in those scenes who was already pushing for the incorrect decision. I don't believe for a second that town would be inclined to reach the incorrect decision on their own volition in all of those scenes. Just as in a normal game of mafia, you will always have some scum pushing a mislynch while others stay off to build town points. So, if Thok was on the good decisions, who was the scum pushing the bad ones?
Partially I believe it was DGB, but she still wasn't voting for the incorrect choices. This is why I think at least one of you and Starkiss has to be scum. That vote to push the bad decision over the edge has to be there in someone.
I'd like you to respond to my point about the scum not getting a real choice of who to send to endgame. If Talilan is town, do you really think the scum had an option of who to send given that Thok and DGB were forced to get the final mislynch?
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 4:33 am
by hewitt
No I think the scum sent the two players who they knew would be able to control the town the best. This whole game has been about control and power, two things that DGB and Thok had none of. The two scum players are inside Talilan, MO, VP, and Thesp.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 4:51 am
by VP Baltar
WTF do you mean they had no power to control the town! DGB was instrumental in picking the wrong decision in both the Crone scene and the Bingo Scene. Thok played a big part in the Bingo scene as well, and as far as I can recall shoveled a lot of shit on Gaspar.
Also, you're completely ignoring the point I was making. If Talilan is town and made the decisions they made in the final scene, how do you propose the scum even had a choice of who went to endgame?
Stop being emotional and be logical for a second.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:04 am
by hewitt
That doesn't matter anymore. We're not in a scenario where we're blindly picking to either push the button or not push the button. We're back to regular Mafia and neither DGB or Thok would be able to control the town's decision making like you four, that's a fact. I don't see your point about Talilan being town, I don't think there's any possible way Talilan is town so I don't give a fuck. Logic is out the door at this point, no one cares about logic otherwise we wouldn't be in this position to begin with. I know that I've at least thought this out logically and I know that I'm correct and at least two other players know that I'm correct and they're going to fight against it. So don't tell me to stop being emotional because you, right now, are a very significant contributing factor in the town loss.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:08 am
by VP Baltar
I don't know why I'm even bothering to try with you. This whole hissy fit of yours just assures me that I was right in the first place. I really have to stop giving people the benefit of the doubt.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:14 am
by hewitt
If you're scum VP then you're doing exactly what you set out to do prior to this scene and I have to give you props for it. The whole point of the scum in this scene was to beat down Starkiss and myself so badly that there's absolutely no chance that we will not be lynched. And now, you've done it. So congrats if you're scum, if you're not, then you're the reason why we've lost.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 6:05 am
by VP Baltar
And if you're town, I'll await your full apology once this game is over.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 6:11 am
by hewitt
Don't wait up for it.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 6:26 am
by zu_Faul
MO, [StarKiss], Talilan, do two things asap:
Vote (concordet).
Give a reason why you haven't done already.
[] for StarKiss because she promised stuff tomorrow.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 10:41 am
by Mr. Grey
Deadline:
Approximately 70 hours from this post.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 11:25 am
by Talilan
hokay I'll do one (ortolan)
Vote: StarKiss
, Thesp, [hewitt, Mighty Orbots], VP Baltar, Talilan, zu_Faul
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 4:16 pm
by Mighty Orbots
zu_Faul wrote:MO, [StarKiss], Talilan, do two things asap:
Vote (concordet).
Give a reason why you haven't done already.
I already have voted. Condorcets are ridiculous. I said that at the very beginning.
Mighty Orbots wrote:Meanwhile, the off-camera crew is busy lynching people. I'm guessing this functions like a regular mafia game. That weird voting system (which I think we should avoid, really) comes into play here.
My list:
hewitt
Talilan
[StarKiss, Thesp]
VP Baltar
zu_Faul
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 4:20 pm
by Talilan
hewitt's town. Lynch StarKiss/Thesp instead please.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 4:27 pm
by Mighty Orbots
Talilan wrote:hewitt's town. Lynch StarKiss/Thesp instead please.
wat
I don't see how hewitt's town. At all.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:14 pm
by Thesp
I lean towards lynching Starkiss first, but as a practical matter, while Starkiss at least promises to do some serious evaluation and hewitt promises to taunt us into lynching him, I see little reason to pursue this preference with any conviction.
In all seriousness, I don't think I want to play with hewitt again if he's town. (I agree with zu_Faul's sentiments, as well as others that seemed to be intoned.)
Talilan - Tal wrote:I don't want to be suckered by Hewitt if he's trying to play us though. Has anyone played with him before and is he normally so negative?
I've played with him before, and he was somewhat negative, but I don't recall defeatist. (Looks like VP Baltar echoes this.)
hewitt wrote:Talilan wrote:I do wonder if StarKiss is a better first lynch than Hewitt. The way CKD's lynch went down made me wonder about a StarKiss/Thesp link. I don't want to be suckered by Hewitt if he's trying to play us though. Has anyone played with him before and is he normally so negative
If you think I'm suckering you then clearly you should be voting for me. Why the change of heart all the sudden? Why Starkiss and not me? What has Starkiss done that is so overwhelmingly more anti-town than me? Do I not have the most anti-town voting record? Isn't that what you were basing this whole thing off anyway?
Any second-guessing of myself on hewitt's "poor me I'm going to be lynched" was lost with this post. This looks like he's baiting rather than hunting.
hewitt wrote:No I think the scum sent the two players who they knew would be able to control the town the best.
So they forced Talilan to axe GoofballsAndBalloons, or had Talilan deliberately choose to axe GaB and Thok over nearly everyone still in the endgame? Really?
(VP Baltar keeps posting my thoughts right after I have them.)
Mighty Orbots wrote:Talilan wrote:hewitt's town. Lynch StarKiss/Thesp instead please.
wat
I don't see how hewitt's town. At all.
QFT. (Is it wrong that it makes me think hewitt's more likely to be scum because ortolan thinks he's town?)
I'm looking forward to StarKiss's efforts.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:18 pm
by Thesp
Mighty Orbots wrote:zu_Faul wrote:MO, [StarKiss], Talilan, do two things asap:
Vote (concordet).
Give a reason why you haven't done already.
I already have voted. Condorcets are ridiculous. I said that at the very beginning.
Mighty Orbots wrote:Meanwhile, the off-camera crew is busy lynching people. I'm guessing this functions like a regular mafia game. That weird voting system (which I think we should avoid, really) comes into play here.
My list:
hewitt
Talilan
[StarKiss, Thesp]
VP Baltar
zu_Faul
If you're willing to provide a list, why are you avoiding an honest-to-goodness Condorcet vote? (For the record, if this game approaches the deadline (which it is!), I fully expect you to put your vote in Condorcet form. If the day hits deadline and your failure to vote in Condorcet form results in a different lynch than it otherwise would, I will pursue a lynch against you.)
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:21 pm
by Mighty Orbots
Thesp wrote:If you're willing to provide a list, why are you avoiding an honest-to-goodness Condorcet vote? (For the record, if this game approaches the deadline (which it is!), I fully expect you to put your vote in Condorcet form. If the day hits deadline and your failure to vote in Condorcet form results in a different lynch than it otherwise would, I will pursue a lynch against you.)
Condorcets are fail. Look at the Day 1 vote. How the hell can you analyze that with the Condorcet mess in the way?
There's seriously no reason why we can't just ignore the concept entirely and just outright vote like normal. I still maintain that Condorcets can be manipulated and shouldn't be used.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:27 pm
by StarKiss
Don't want to rush things. I'm hoping to review at least 2 other players tomorrow. What are you looking for, zu?
To be honest, I do think the only incriminating thing about VP is the player he replaced. Whoever said town is f*cked if he's scum is right. Won't bother iso'ing VP tomorrow since deadline is less than 3 days away.
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:44 pm
by Thesp
Mighty Orbots wrote:Thesp wrote:If you're willing to provide a list, why are you avoiding an honest-to-goodness Condorcet vote? (For the record, if this game approaches the deadline (which it is!), I fully expect you to put your vote in Condorcet form. If the day hits deadline and your failure to vote in Condorcet form results in a different lynch than it otherwise would, I will pursue a lynch against you.)
Condorcets are fail. Look at the Day 1 vote. How the hell can you analyze that with the Condorcet mess in the way?
There's seriously no reason why we can't just ignore the concept entirely and just outright vote like normal. I still maintain that Condorcets can be manipulated and shouldn't be used.
Do you think they can be manipulated by not using them when they might otherwise swing a lynch?
(Also, I don't see how the Condorcet "mess" interferes with looking at D1. Perhaps I'm missing something?)