Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[kortul]

DCL's V/LA was till Thursday, 4/26.

His unvote of Macrophage/vote on DDD occurred on Saturday, 4/28, three days after his V/LA was over.

You can see from his posts on this site (hope this link works) that he was posting Thursday through Saturday on site, just not in this thread.

With Sleepless' L-1 vote on DDD at midnight 4/27, and DCL being on the site and posting in other games, I think the argument holds water.

Water it is. Magua, you noticed the same thing that was a final straw for me to switch to DCL to get the answers - he was active everywhere but not in this game. Let's analyze the context and DCL options. I will post times how i see them (probably according to my time zone).

826 SA - "The two sharing a PM doesn't mean scum. It just means they share alignment. I don't understand how so many people can vote Bike, yet DCL seems to be a common town read. I'd actually like to hear what everyone saw in DCL that was more townie than Bike was scummy."
839 (Fri Apr 27, 2012 7:21 am): SA - votes DDD
844 (Fri Apr 27, 2012 7:19 pm): 4nx - votes Macro, "

thats two wagons with 6 votes, both are at L-1, alice is the deciding vote

."
845 Voided asks a question "Speaking of the VCA, DCL, are you going to go back to it?"
848 (Fri Apr 27, 2012 10:51 pm) I ask a question as well "Speaking of DCL, i still want to hear the answers to my questions in 762/766."
849 (Sat Apr 28, 2012 2:33 am): Macro - unvote DDD

In 826 SA started asking those who suspected funky why DCL is town for them, shifting some of attention to DCL. In 839 SA votes DDD, yet he doesn't mention that this is L-1. Macro is still at L-2. 12 hours later 4nx votes Macro, making them both at L-1, stating that for the first time (no vote count in between) and asking Alice to decide. Voided and me ask DCL questions. 4 hours later Macro unvotes DDD asking for a claim.

So, at first there was a 12 hours window when DDD was at L-1 (it wasn't obvious since only 4 people were voting him) and Macro at L-2. Even if he was aware of vote count, there's no reason for DCL-scum to walk in and hammer DDD. He could ask for a claim, but that means quickly finding a reason to suspect DDD and/or drop suspicion from Macro. After 4nx post both Macro and DDD are at L-1, and he actually said that vote count aloud. Looking at DCL activity, his next appearance on forum after 4nx post was on Sat Apr 28, 2012 1:08 am. That's hour and a half before Macro unvoted. So this is the second window where he could hammer DDD, now with the added incentive to save his partner. But problem is even worse now - to ask for a claim he has to quickly find a reason to suspect DDD, and to hammer without claim means trading

both DCL and Macro

with possible VT (the link would be really strong, so once one will flip scum another would follow). What for? And that's not taking into account possibility that both DCL and DDD are scum (if that's the case, we can only speculate on DCL thoughts).

Stuff from kortul that starts with the assumption that I didn't read all that when my posts have been very clear that I read all that.

Not true. Of course you read all that, and gave links in your first post, but instead of analyzing posts together with context, you just gave your interpretation that was missing relevant facts (like Fishy interrogation and claim explanation, or players unvoting DDD accepting the claim) and with logic that is faulty (like all three your scenarios are possible together).

P.S. I like your dialogue with DCL today, it is funny:
DCL: I'd like today to end with either a fishy, mag, or kort lynch.
Magua: 3 days. Literally zero other support for a Fishy wagon. What, exactly, were you waiting for?

(zero support for your wagon either)

DCL: I'll have a vote down tonight on someone other than fishy

(guess who it is, without zero support?)

[Voidedmafia]

Without zero support

Not true. THere was a vote on Kort before DCL.

(Yes, I've reduced myself to one-liners. THat's what happens when you're effectively conftown and everyone else looks town to you.)

Dammit, this is Marketplace Mafia ALL OVER AGAIN! ('cept it's not an SK we're looking for, but still) (Please tell me you feel my pain on this, Mag. Please.)

[kortul]

Hmm, did you answer to me, Void? What isn't true? At the moment between "fishy, mag or kort" only my wagon has votes (ie "without zero support"), so my comment was sarcastic, since the way it is asked the question of Magua translates into "DCL, why aren't you voting kortul?".

But i agree with Magua, we are more or less close to deadline and it is time to make decisions. I don't like the general apathy of the town, only Magua is active, even though he suspects me because of PoE while defending DCL, but he is doing something and stirring the pot, and some of his moves were actually good, they gave food for analysis and discussions. And DDD did a move towards Rhinox, but the case itself is meh. What everyone else is waiting for? There are few interactions, even fewer cases, what will we do if it comes to LYLO one day - flip a coin whom to lynch? There's chance that you won't be the decision maker, Voided, but you do hold 3 votes, and are the closest thing to conf town that we have, so if you have time and energy to do it, read the DCL case and today discussions again.

[DCLXVI]

Can't remember much about that v/la back in April. Given that I am a fairly active poster I probably thought I had posted something in the thread when I hadn't done so or it didn't go through or something.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

It's three days to deadline. Rhinox needs to stop being useless. DDD needs to say who he thinks scum is. DCL needs to realize that Fishy isn't getting lynched today.

I didn't realize deadline was so close. I really wish I could get a rhinox lynch; I realize no one else is interested but this just feels like one of those games where I'm right and I can't articulate it at all and scum just waltzes through the game. I mean there's no point in banging my head against that particular wall right now but let's make that a working assumption because fuck you that's why.

rhinox is scum.
I'm town, Voided is town, Fishy is town.
Which leaves kortul, DCL, and Magua as rhinox's scumpartner.

I don't think his scumpartner would be kortul because that puts both scum at the end of the bus on D2 and I don't think it would be DCL because of the way they both sat there waiting for someone else to hammer; if they were both scum one of them would've just taken the lead and done it. Which leaves Magua. It certainly fits with my VCA, Magua was exceedingly vote inflexible on day two and even into day three which is a scumtell for me and his case today shows a level of reasoning that's substantially below what I expect from him. Basically it appears he's pinning everything on the actions of scum ignoring the fact that scum often intentionally manipulate their behaviors to indict town players and also ignoring scum's basic survival instincts.

Now does it work if I'm somehow wrong about rhinox? All of the non-VCA points still stand and he's certainly got a possible scumpartner in DCL, kortul is a less likely partner with the way Magua started and appears to be ending the day voting for him but I'd have to review the depth of his conviction on the first pass before completely ruling out kortul. I think this is the best course of action.

VOTE: Magua

[Magua]

Basically it appears he's pinning everything on the actions of scum ignoring the fact that scum often intentionally manipulate their behaviors to indict town players and also ignoring scum's basic survival instincts.

This is amusing, because my suspicion comes from you is *because* Macrophage not hammering you reads to me entirely like scum ignoring basic survival instincts.

Given that you're certain about Rhinox and uncertain about partner, and given that Rhinox and I both had zero votes on us, why did you vote me over Rhinox?

[Rhinox]

Gonna be V/LA starting the 14th ending the 19th

Not voting Kortul today. But I have no idea what to do.



ugh effort, find your motivation.

OK, starting from the top with malee...

RVS vincent - useless info
First real target - nacho... useless info
4nx calls malee worse than nacho in the interaction - useless info
malee immediately unvotes and acts confused when I question her about her nacho vote
Vincent says malee's unvote post feels fake, malee appeases vincent - useless info
Malee flakes...

Malee's iso tells me nothing.

Theo's iso:

#273:
-LS asks for a reads list, theo is "happy to oblige" and commits amished tell (apparently).
-Reads:

fishy: Wishy washy read, points out 2 posts that "leave a bad taste", but otherwise town (no elaboration on what makes him think town or why)

Nacho: short comment, no read either way. Big difference from the wishy washy read on fishy.

Rhinox: definitive town read.

SA: scum read, with examples. Calls out SA for voting fishy with little explanation. Other example doesn't seem relevant.

4nx: null read, compares 4nx's play here to a similar game when 4nx was town and feels its the same here but isn't sure.

LS: Definitive town read.

Hiplop: "slightly scummy mainly because of the wavering around on votes / who he thinks is scummy."

Alice: "Probably town." - nothing else said about it.

Kortul: leaning town but feels like less to go on since kortul is a replacement.

DDD: leaning scum for his vote on nacho and defense buddying of hiplop

vincent: null read, nothing more

funky: not enought to go on, not many posts, and doesn't add much to the game.


If I order his list:

town

LS

Rhinox

probably town

alice/magua

leaning town

Kortul

null/no read

fishy*

nacho

4nx

vincent/voided

funky/DCL

leaning scum

Hiplop

DDD

scum

SA

First thought on this being... fuck. I expect scum to spread their partners out in their reads, and all of us are spread out from top to bottom.

But I think there is something there. I expect for 1 partner to be in the null reads for sure. Its the perfect place to place a partner because it lets you go either way later on. That points to at least one of fishy or DCL being scum.

I feel like theo's alice read (or lack thereof) could possibly point to magua being scum. His kortul read ("town, but...") does not feel like a comment a scum would say about his partner, it reads more like theo wanted to leave an out to reverse a town read later on. His DDD read is all scum stuff, not "scum, but...". He doesn't leave himself wiggle room to change his mind later. Very similar to his reads on hiplop and SA, who were both town.

Based on these reads, I think the scum are in group {magua, fishy, DCL}. I want to think that magua and fishy can't be scum together based on their 1v1 earlier on, but I've noticed that neither of them have been pushing each other very hard since then. I can't rule out that it was all a crossbussing act to give one of them town cred.

#293:
Fishy asks theo to explain his 4nx and alice reads. Going back to fishy #276, fishy criticizes theo's read on him about it being bad that fishy wanted to quicklynch malee. Fishy says... "What would I be hoping to achieve as scum by saying that? Your lynch? Town cred in some obscure way?" - its interesting because a) yes fishy probably would have got town cred for that lynch considering malee was scum, and b) theo had to respond carefully because of (a) to not claim scum.

Theo's response: "To me it always feels a bit off when people call for a quick lynch on someone who isn't there to answer." - just kinda dismisses it and thats all thats said about it from either party I do believe.

Fishy likes theo's catchup post. :shrug:

Theo's responses to fishy's questions:

4nx read clarification - just talks about meta and how he just finds 4nx's playstyle scummy even when he's town. - doesn't help with anything.

Alice read clarification - calls alice "the voice of reason". "She seems to be analysing what others are posting and to try to help others think through their ideas (for example post 148). I can't see scum doing this." - hmmm... is this something scum would say about a scum partner? I don't know...

Also in 293:
-Argues with LS about his malee comments and his hiplop read - doesn't seem like anything useful now
-Argues with kortul about his SA and 4nx reads, and why he didn't vote yet.
-Asks DDD to clarify the amished tell.
-Comments something about some SA post I honestly can't figure out now and don't think its relevant anyways.

Post #318:
-Defends his stance about defending malee's actions. Calls out LS, Alice, and SA.
-Oh right, the infamous flip on alice, because alice asked for reads from malee's replacement, and then didn't comment on them afterwords. Votes alice over all previous scum reads, then vanishes forever.

I feel like this could be one of 2 things:

1) Desparation and flailing after being pressured, and makes a rash decision to bus alice, then flakes upon seeing that the move was met with more negativity.
2) After being called out for not voting, he wanted to put a vote down, but for some reason didn't want to vote anyone he previously called scum. Most of the playerslist was below alice in his reads, but of the 3 he had in the scum catagories, 2 are now confirmed town, and the last is DDD. Not voting a scum read to protect a scum partner he placed in his scum reads doesn't make sense because it would have to be DDD, but he could have voted SA or hiplop who he also called scum but were town. I think more likely this signifies that all his scum reads were town, and he didn't want to be the one pushing a wagon on town.

What bothers me a little is that alicewagon was getting a little momentum at the time. But looking at the VC, theo was only the second vote on that alice wagon. I can't tell if it was a bus, or a move to a mislynch wagon with momentum.



And thats all from theo



I'm not really up for giving macro's iso the same treatment right now, but tbh I don't think the info there will be as good. Macro was an alt, and seemed a bit more saavy than his predecessors, so will have been better at covering his tracks. Just the whole claim situation already tells me that my ideas on what scum would and wouldn't do don't really apply to macro.

tl;dr

malee and theo's play (mostly theo) point to scum being in a group of {magua, fishy, and DCL}. This lines up with my recent thinking that kortul and DDD are likely town, and voided being prob-mason. I had hoped to find something that narrowed down my thinking when I started so I'm a little about doing all this and still being in exactly the same position I was before I started, but now that I've wrote it all up I feel compelled to post it anyways.

I'm heading to the gym for a little while now but after I return I'll focus on those 3 and figuring out who to vote for. Based on recent comments it seems like the lynch today will come down to magua vs. DCL

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Basically it appears he's pinning everything on the actions of scum ignoring the fact that scum often intentionally manipulate their behaviors to indict town players and also ignoring scum's basic survival instincts.

This is amusing, because my suspicion comes from you is *because* Macrophage not hammering you reads to me entirely like scum ignoring basic survival instincts.

A fundamental difference of opinion we still have apparently; scum quickhammering like that is a death sentance even more probable than not lynching me would've been.

Given that you're certain about Rhinox and uncertain about partner, and given that Rhinox and I both had zero votes on us, why did you vote me over Rhinox?

I already tried that; there's not enough votes for his lynch. If voided came around and voted for rhinox that'd be enough if you were willing to vote him as well but neither of those things seem likely on their own, let alone in tandem.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

DCLXVI (3) - kortul, fishythefish
kortul (3) - Magua, DCLXVI
Magua (2) - Debonair Danny DiPietro

Not Voting (5) - rhinox, Voidedmafia

With 13 votes it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is June 14th, 11AM PST, a little under 48 hours.

[Voidedmafia]

People I'm pretty much never going to vote:
Rhinox
DDD

People who are fairly town and I'm not keen on voting:
Fishy
Kortul

Not quite town but not quite scum:
Magua

PoE scum:
DCL

Kortul is somewhat borderline (or at least as borderline as you can get with my less-than-sure reads) case, but I'm at least sure enough of it that I wouldn't vote him for now.

The thing that's starting to bother me is the possible WIFOM that I'm being left alive because the scum(s) know that I'm rather complacent as conftown (either from the aforementioned Marketplace Mafia or from another game), though if I'm not dead tonight that's just going to be a big bunch of "WTF" getting thrown into the mix.

I still stand by my read on Magua from D3, though I do feel his D4 play has made him look better. He's still the lowest read I've got, so I guess that's where I'll have to hedge my bets.

Vote: Magua

[Magua]

Hey. Voided. Here's what you need to consider:

I'm town. Don't care if you lynch me to confirm this, because it's true.

Problem is that after you lynch me, you'll be dead. So, what's going to happen is that town will look at your post tomorrow and see that you surmise that DCL is scum with no one else. And that you think DCL is scum solely because of PoE.

That's terrible. So even if you're going to vote me, kindly give your reads assuming that I've flipped town, kthx.

[Magua]

Also, Voided, allow me to *strongly* suggest that you order your list so that it has a townread in both the first and the last spot.

[Fishythefish]

Also, Voided, allow me to *strongly* suggest that you order your list so that it has a townread in both the first and the last spot.

This seems very sensible (for everyone, and particularly for Voided).

[Voidedmafia]

Yknow, Mag, I'd love to have that kind of connection to give for when I'm dead. Really would. Sadly, that's not how things work in Voidedtown, not at this point. This is turning more and more into Marketplace Mafia for me, though unlike there isn't anyone making some sort of tell that I can latch onto (or a post that helps me rethink a read) (on the plus side, Grey isn't in this game.).

...A crazy thought was that the team was DCL-Kortul, though I don't think that's overly likely. Possible, but unlikely. I GUESS I can try to scrounge up some sort of connections post, but don't expect it to be any good.

Btw, Rhinox, if Fishy and Mag crossbussed to get towncred, it must've been for Fishy's benefit, otherwise I think that backfired.

[Voidedmafia]

Btw, DDD, have you used your shot at all this game? And did you fullclaim at all yet?

As for the Will, I do agree with that and just sent Llama an updated will.

[Voidedmafia]

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF--stupid-ass back button ate up some of what I was writing on DCL, and now I'm not in the mood to re-type it. -_-

Okay, maybe I can't do that. Maybe I can do stuff if it's Magtown:

Fishy, I think, would stay town, as I still feel he came off better in your D2/D3 argument, and I think he's town regardless of your alignment.

DCL moves to be scum, and I was working on possible connections but my keybard said "lolnope" so that's not happening. What I did get was possible Fishy bussing. I was also mainly trying to look for DCL+Mag links, though I don't think I actually got to anywhere worth considering, sadly. 748 is possible bussing to Macro, and actually there's plenty of that up to 776 against macro. 948 just rubs me the wrong way with the sarcastic part to Rhinox. 979 starts some potentially heavy bussing of Fishy--which gets immediately turned around 20 posts later, which just looks weird...bah, I think I just convinced myself of this.

Vote: DCL

(Should be L-1)

I have noticed that DCL has been somewhat consistently attacking Fishy for most of the game (somewhat because it's not like he's done it all game, but it doesn't exactly feel off-and-on, if you get what I'm saying). If DCL flips scum that's probably an unfortunate blow for my Fishy-town read but that's how it goes sometimes.

I believe that Rhinox is definitely town regardless of Mag's or DCL's flips, I think DDD is as well. Kort's is still possibly one of the last scum, but I don't really feel like going through for the connections and stuff now, so this is what you'll get.

I would like DDD to answer my questions before anyone hammers, though.

[kortul]

Void, who of the remaining players knows you well enough to predict or manipulate (or just well enough, if you are not sure about the rest of the question)?

Updated my will, though i am struggling to figure out who is my second strongest town read, will reassess after i'll know who is lynched and the results of the flip. I believe we can change our will at night as well? Hmm, i just realized, that now i don't know whether my strongest town read should be first or last. Hell, Magua, you sure know how to spread paranoia, i understand the Voided question now.

[Voidedmafia]

Magua should have first-hand knowledge of that from Marketplace Mafia since he modded that one (though it isn't a complete parallel as I didn't have everyone solidly town in that game, I don't think). That's the only game I know of that anyone in the playerlist has seen me been conftown.

DDD and I were in a Newbie (don't remember which one), and Rhinox modded my first non-Newbie game (1137, IIRC), but I don't know if either of them have actually watched any of my games before or after them (or just after in Rhinox's case).

Or is that now what you're asking?

Spoiler: random thought

I wonder if anyone has ever bothered to give some sort of meta summary of my town and scumgames. I'd like to see that.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Btw, DDD, have you used your shot at all this game? And did you fullclaim at all yet?

Pretty much the answer to both questions right here (answer to both is yes btw).

What Magua proposed isn't a terrible suggestion other than the intent being to spread paranoia about me; while I still think it would be busted for scum to have my ability perhaps I'm wrong and they could have a matching ability so better to be safe than sorry.

[DCLXVI]

Give me 30minutes or do to figure out who gets my vote. I'll let you guys know when I've changed it.

[Rhinox]

Look back at funky/DCL slot (only commenting on the interesting and relevant stuff this time):

-Random votes Malee - as scum I tend to avoid RVS voting my scum partners but idk if this is a general tell either way.

-Alice made a comment: "If Malee flips scum, LS becomes scummier." Funky questions why Alice thinks that. - I would think here, if funky was scum with malee, and knew LS was town, and especially if alice is town, scum would really like it if townies were finding connections between a townie and a scum. So my first instinct is that this is not a comment scum would likely make. But its possible funkyscum wanted to make alice look bad in the eventual event of LS flipping town, or its possible funky just asked the question as either alignment to attempt to contribute independant of the alignment of anyone involved. I found it a good question at the time and stage of the game, part of the reason I found funky to be town.

aside: that comment from alice looks like it could be from scum trying to set up a connection between a townie and a scum partner.

-This comment:

To me, it looks like this wagon on Malee is sort of forced; there is no relevant reason for her to be scum more than anyone else. LS's argument is based on pandering, which I find not to be a valid scumtell Day 1. However, I respect other people's opinions, and if this behavior continues from Malee, it will be very hard to dig out of the hole she created for herself.

Has been brought up before and I agree it looks bad. It reminds me of a comment I made towards my IC scumpartner in my very first game ever on site.

-I dislike how funky went from "Nachomamma is scum. I can't see any other possibility." to "Nacho managed to provide a decent explanation for his behavior; I find it believable." I think I remember asking funky why he didn't vote nacho despite him being his only scum read and a strong one at that as indicated by his read. He said he was waiting for an answer. :shurg: with nacho town idk what to make of this.

The rest of Funky's reads don't stick out to me either way.

-This:

Agreed. Also, sloppy play is NOT a scumtell on day 1 when you have no adequate way to defend yourself.

Is also another defense of malee. Its a response to a nacho comment regarding not being able to tell the difference between scum play and sloppy play with malee or something like that.

I think I mentioned this before but what gives me pause is the last game I played with funky we were scum partners (lost in the crash), and he mostly ignored me in game, and at one point he bussed me ruthlessly just before the crash. I had made a mistake but its not like I was obviously scum at that point, there were still some townies having doubts. But I'm just pointing out that his treatment of malee doesn't really match the meta I have on how funky treats his scum partners.

But looking back now, the earlier comment about digging out of the hole does look very bad, and knowing this was D1 and malee was a scum PR, it makes sense somewhat to try to protect the scum pr.

Thats about it from funky. There is the vote on alice for "horrible, inconsistent reads", and then him threatening to hammer theo despite not saying anything about theo's play and his defense of malee. Then he vanishes.

Knowing that funky doesn't have a problem bussing when a scum partner wagon has momentum, I wonder about these last 2 acts. If I remember right, alice wagon had some momentum when funky popped in to vote. And theo was L-1 when funky threatened to hammer (why didn't he just hammer? because theo was still a scum PR?).

Of the rest of us living, he called me, kortul, and vincent/voided all town, and he didn't say anything at all about fishy or DDD.

Based on the iso, I could see a DCL/Magua scum team as being plausible due to potential bussing of alice when her wagon has momentum, as well as DCL/fishy for a complete absence of fishy from anything funky had to say.

I think another thing points to funky as possible scum - at one point I called him town for meta, and he disagreed and said he hated playing as scum. Then later on he flakes out. Based on his own comments I think he would be more likely to flake out as scum then as town, but I still have a problem with the meta I have on him because he played a very good scum game and didn't flake out

Breaking here to post this before moving on to DCL..

[DCLXVI]

Hm, just like the last time I was at l-1 the "case" on me is complete bs.

@kortul, there is a reason no one has responded to your case on me...it sucks.
@fishy, not even sure why he is voting me.
@voided you PoE is off a lot if it is down to me being scum. Also, whatever u do, Plz Plz Plz do not give ur votes to fishy if u die tonight.

you guys are going to be putting yourselves in a tough position for tommorow.

Either kortul is scum for his bs case on me or fishy is scum for jumping on it the way he did.

Also, my last will is done so lynch away.

[Rhinox]

DCL replaces in for funky.

-first actions: asks to delay a macro hammer so he can catch up, unvotes alice, and votes LS before reading the whole thread.

I have no meta of DCL so only *textbook* thinking to go on. Asking to delay a macro hammer seems like something scum-DCL would do knowing macro was a scum PR. Unvoting alice with no commentary as to why fits with DCL/alice pairing. Voting LS without reading the thread - well he said he based the vote on what he read through the first 4 pages but his disclaimer made it sound like the vote was a placeholder and likely to change after reading the whole thread. Why wasn't alice a good enough placeholder vote?

-#479: thinks macro is not that good of a lynch, thinks there are better options (doesn't supply them yet)

-First reads post:

Leaning Townish:

Rhinox

Fishythefish

hiplop

4nxi3ty

Not sure about right now:

nachomamma

Macrophage theomoaner Malee

Kortul

Vincent2128 Voidedmafia

Alicewondering Magua

Leaning scum:

Lastsurviver

Sleepless Assassin

Debonair Danny DiPietro

Same sort of deal I noticed with malee/theo, we're all pretty well spread out. DCL did place macro in the *unsure* category, the question is would he place both scum there, or would he place the other scum partner in the town or scum categories. Up to this point DCL hasn't elaborated on his reads much so I can't really say which I think yet.

This clump of comments:

-I agree that it is difficult to get a read on a replacement player. It is very easy to come in on a 20+ page game and say a lot of non-risky stuff.

-I'm not sold on the Macrophage lynch. Yes the player(s) he replaced may have acted scummy. But so far he has been fairly town from what I've read [more on that later]. I think it is more likely that he replaced a bad/inexperienced towny than that he is scum. But yeah it will be hard to find out.

-One thing that makes me hesitant about calling macro scum because the players he replaced didn't play well is that if I had been another player in the game, I would have definitely found funkybike's actions scummy...yet I now know he wasn't scum... I other words, I'm open to the possibility that the people macro replaced just sucked, as opposed to being scum.

-I'd like to see a concise summery of the case against macro.

I think could possible point to a macro/DCL connection. Its like tiptoing around knowing that the predecessors to their slots (malee, theo, and funky) were scum thus thinking so easily that those players actions were scummy. Basically the same "amished tell" that theo committed.

This is kinda an interesting post now in hindsight:

So as I was reading the game I made a chart showing who had voted who. I found the information to be very interesting.

I think this post will be very useful down the road when we get some flips.

With the following list I'm going to show how many people have voted for each person. So, the people following the person in bold will be the players who have voted for the bolded person over the course of the game.

I'm very positive this information is correct, but if I have made a mistake counting votes than please point it out

For players that have been replaced I am only using the name of the replacer most times to keep things less confusing.

9

Macrophage

Fishy,

rhinox

, DCLXVI,

4nxiety

,

voided

,

lastsurvivor

,

hiplop

, DDD, Alicewondering
9

Alicewondering

Fishy,

rhinox

,

Nacho

, DCLXVI,

anxiety

,

last survivor

,

hiplop

, kortul,

Macro

7

DCLXVI

Fishy,

Nacho

, Kortul,

Voided

,

Lastsurvivor

,

Sleepless assassin

, Alicewondering

5

Sleepless Assassin

Fishy, kortul,

lastsurvivor

,

hiplop

, Alicewondering
4

rhinox

fishy,

4nxiety, last survivor, hiplop

3

nachomama

Macro

,

hiplop

, DDD
3

Fishy

4nxiety, sleepless assassin, hiplop

3

Lastsurvivor

Nacho

, DCLXVI,

4nxi3ty

,
3

Debonair

Macro

,

Sleepless

, Alicewondering
2

hiplop

Alicewondering,

Rhinox

2

Voidedmafia

Macro

,

Rhinox

1

4nxiety

Rhinox

0

kortul

There have been three big wagons over the course of the game, Funky/DCLXVI,

Malee/theo/macro

, and Alicewondering. I wanted to see if there were similarities between these wagons.

Players that voted for all three sometime in the game 2: Fishy,

last survivor

Players that voted for at least two of the major wagons 8:

Rhinox

, DCLXVI,

4nxiety, hiplop

, Alicewondering,

nacho

, kortul,

voided

-Players voting for Funky/DCLXVI and

Malee/theo/macro

2:

Alicewondering

,

Voided

-Players voting for Funky/DCLXVI and Alicewondering 2:

Nacho

, kortul
-Players voting for

Malee/theo/macro

and Alicewondering 4:

Rhinox

, DCLXVI,

4nxi3ty, hiplop

-Players voting for just one of the wagons: DDD,

Sleepless assassin

,

Macro

-Players not involved in either of the wagons: 0

Some thoughts from all of this analysis:

-Fishy and

Last survivor

have voted for the exact same players the entire game:

Sleepless assassin

,

rhinox

, funky/DCL,

macro/theo/malee

, Alice.
----These 5 players they voted for are the top 5 wagons so far in the game.

-

Rhinox

has been involved in voting for a few people no one else has really targeted:

4nxi3ty, hiplop

,

Voidedmafia

.

-Only 3 players did not vote for

macro/theo/malee

so far:

Sleepless assassin, nachomama

, kortul.
----However, those three players were all on the funky/DCL wagon.
----Both

Nacho

and kortul were on alice.

-Only three players did not vote for Alicewondering all game:

Sleepless

,

Voided

, DDD

I'm sure some other info can be drawn from the list I made, but I'm to tired to think about it right now...I need sleep...

One thing I notice is that it seems my leading theory (macro/magua/DCL scumteam) doesn't seem to fit here. I don't see scum motivation in singling out those 3 wagons if those were the 3 scum. I'm also hesitant to believe that the 3 major wagons by that point in the game in D1 were all 3 on scum.

DCL, did you ever go back and revisit this post? you seemed to think it was going to be very valuable after some flips, and we've had them. Does any of this tell you anything now?


----------

I'm only scratching the surface on DCL iso by now, but its my gym time again. I don't know if I'll have time to finish everything I want to finish by deadline, but i'm not yet convinced enough to hammer DCL.

[Fishythefish]

My reads atm:

- Voided and Rhinox are still town. A note on Voided - if he's real he's dying tonight, since everyone believes him. So if YOU die tonight (and you aren't Voided), Voided may well be fake. Despite being probtown, he's probably therefore a silly person to have at the top of your will unless you are being lynched today.
- DDD is probtown. Macro not hammering him is a decent point against him, but it's outweighed by the wagon on him at the same time as the one on Macro, and the claim which I think is likely town.
- Nullish read on kortul. His play today and yesterday has looked genuine and protown, and until then I had no strong feelings about him. Fits well with Macro scum.
- Very mixed feelings on Mag. Alice fits really well with being a Macro partner, and Magua fits fine. But most of his play in the game has felt townish, except his attacks on me. He's my no. 2 scumread right now.
- DCL's play day 2 fits well with him being scumpartners with Macro - he went hard after Macro, but only until it looked like Macro had a chance of surviving, when he backed off quickly. This looks exactly like you'd expect from scum trying to save their partner, and failing that look good.

Urgh. Just looked at 518 again in Rhinox's post. Do I

really

believe that DCL as scum did a comparative wagon analysis of two wagons on scumbags (him and Macro) in order to link two townies (me and LS)? No. I just can't see scum doing that. Scum don't draw attention to similarities with their partner, scum don't group scumhunt, scum don't like wagon analysis.

UNVOTE:

Bleh. I think the right move here is

VOTE: Magua

Links with Alice, dishonest case on me, and seems clever enough that my gut read on him could be wrong.

[Magua]

Strongest townread should be first, but instead of putting second strongest townread second, put them last.

@kortul:

Why are you asking if you can change your will at Night? Are you saying you've not adjusted your will after any of the previous lynches?

Yknow, Mag, I'd love to have that kind of connection to give for when I'm dead. Really would. Sadly, that's not how things work in Voidedtown, not at this point. This is turning more and more into Marketplace Mafia for me, though unlike there isn't anyone making some sort of tell that I can latch onto (or a post that helps me rethink a read) (on the plus side, Grey isn't in this game.).

The point is that I *am* going to flip town.

I'm pretty sure that DCL is town. Seriously. The only people I'm interested in lynching are kortul or DDD, in approximately that order -- I think DCL is town, I think Fishy is town, I'm unsure on Rhino.

Given the one day till deadline, the chances of me being lynched are pretty damn high. So let's pretend that I've already flipped town and you can give your reads before you're killed right after I'm lynched.