Well, yes.
In post 1289, CarbonFiber wrote:Your post doesn't seem so much like a reach-out more than "sheep me" because you haven't left any room for refining our reads or admitting you could be wrong based on me having contradicting reads.
You're not right nor not wrong; it's a little bit of both. It
is
a reach-out, to bridge the rift between us. It is
also
an attempt to get players sheeping me, since I need sheep in order to actually get a scum lynch. Yet it's also not a "sheep me", because I'm not asking for players to vote for Fox/Hound specifically, even though I strongly lean that way. I'm asking for feedback on all my scumspects, 'specially since I think that one of the big three (no more, though admittedly POSSIBLY less) is actually town.
How about you start with explaining your scumread on Fox and the Hound?
Conveniently enough, Xenogears just ended last night. Cephrir was the only scumbag that I was able to reliably read as scum. ONLY scumbag. And he was also? The second-most-obvtown scum player, behind mollie. Maybe even moreso. He didn't get lynched; he got nightkilled by the serial killer, who I'm not certain was aiming for scum. (I'll have to ask Aegor that.) It's a lot of reading, but this isn't something you'll understand by reading my iso and then Cephrir's iso. This is something you need the context in order to be able to understand. But simply put...
It's exactly as I described in here. Cephrir is one of THE best players at knowing his own scumplay and tailoring his play in the current game to avoid getting caught by the players he thinks matter. (For instance? Far more important to fool ffery than it is to fool me, at least as far as Cephrir is concerned. Far more important to fool Nacho than me. Because Cephrir knows them and fears them, whereas he has little to none of me.) He can never get universally townread; the tactics he uses to dodge suspicion from one party paint him in bad light to another. But through this tailored play, he is able to get FAR too many townreads and dodge way too many bullets.
This is why I don't read Cephrir off of past games. I read him off the current game. And I don't read the literal content. His literal content looks town. It always does. It did in Xenogears, too. I read the words behind the words, the mindset of the content, and from that I generate my read. I can see him posting things that are meant to look good and sound like they could be genuine, but they also come off as being flat and intentionally-invoked.
All-in-all, Cephrir is the type of player who you have to look at the reasoning, not the wording. And his reasoning here is basically the same thing that I used to catch him in Xenogears. He's doing things that he really shouldn't be doing if he was town. Among them, his push on me. Because in Xenogears, he knew I was town and that I wasn't giving reasoning, yet he brought it up in this game as if he had never encountered it before.
DV, I admittedly don't have recent experience reading. But I'm treating his half the same way I'm treating Cephrir. I'm not caught up in the past about DV. I'm focusing on reading him in the present...in which, he still looks like scum.
Do you feel that it is fake here?
Maybe. (See below.)
Let's assume you are town. In that scenario, let's say Rancid is also town. I'm actually more convinced 3Dice/AP could be scum and that's a push I can get behind.
Bluntly, AP's the alternative lynch to Fox/Hound today. There's an outside chance of a Sheep Us lynch, but I think that's overall sub-optimal. (See below.)
In post 1298, Clyton wrote:Correction: Just Sheep Us, AP, and Fox/Hound are all defending one another in one form or another.
One of the main problems I have with a scumteam of The Big Three here is exactly that, by the way. For all three to be scum, they'd have to be stealing a play out of MY handbook.
Admittedly, not impossible especially given AP. But their interactions don't look like all-scum. It looks like two of them are scum, yes. But while not impossible for all three to be scum...I kinda doubt that they are. Seems too easy, too simple. Especially given AP SPECIALIZES in misdirection-with-interactions as scum. (Seriously, that's his strongest scum trait. If I were to assign scum players to have specialties, that would be his. To interact in a way that no town player is able to successfully figure out. Nobody. Not even me. Will ever be able to figure out his scumbuddies off of his interactions, and often not off of interactions to him in games with daychat. It's what he does best.)
And of the three...I'm scumreading Cephrir, and I'm scumreading AP. I'm not actually scumreading Sheep Us, so much as it is that I'm merely hoping for their sakes that they're scum and not just bad-town. (Again.) I'm preeeeeeeeeeeeetty much going to lynch all three of them
anyway
, just as a precaution, but I don't think that they're all scum. Just mostly scum.
(although Im more likely to declare myself obvtown as town).