Mafiascum.net

@Pants - I'm a little over halfway through now. If you want a final answer for whatever that 'top two suspects' part of your breaking the game thing was, give me about two and I'll have them for you. Pinkie promise!

And for now, Guyett is off the table as well. So we have... Guyett, Anti, Pants as untouchables for now. And I'm not willing to lynch Titus today.

That leaves gm, Jingle, SG and bubba.

I'd go SG > Jingle > bubba/gm.

p-edit: SG's posts are so much better though. Maybe Jingle first.

To be fairly honest, at this point, I feel like I'm just playing a guessing game. I have no fucking clue what to do next.

And there's a possibility Anti COULD be scum fake claiming, not knowing there is an absence of roleblockable PRs in the town. If he is, fucking kudos that's a master claim in this setup if it is what it looks like. That being said, and it needed to be said, I'm not touching him today. Unfortunately, if we don't lynch right today, we'll have no way to know. Well, actually, I guess he's a bigger threat at this point than the mason, so if he's town, I'd suspect scum are going to want him dead before the last mason. I dunno. If we lynch wrong today, my thinking is he could be alive in LYLO and we'd have no way to know. If we lynch right, and he's alive in LYLO, lynch his sorry ass. I don't know. I'm exhausted right now and this is what I'm thinking.

With no protective role claimed, he could be the pseudo protective, while the masons are the pseudo investigative representatives.

Like, instead of 'Cop' and 'Doc' vs. whatever scum get' we have 'sorta Doc/stopper of other scum abilities' and 'sorta like a Cop who got two town results'. Y'know?

I suppose. We kinda have to lynch right today. He can wait.

In post 1351, Snork wrote:And for now, Guyett is off the table as well. So we have... Guyett, Anti, Pants as untouchables for now. And I'm not willing to lynch Titus today.

That leaves gm, Jingle, SG and bubba.

I'd go SG > Jingle > bubba/gm.

p-edit: SG's posts are so much better though. Maybe Jingle first.

Why am I off the table?

Fuck if it's Anti/Guyett or Anti/SG I'm done. I quit. That's what.

p-edit: dont be a fucking dodo. Assuming Anti is a town RB, and RB'd you, then YOU did not make the kill, so we can assume YOU are more likely town than someone else.

I say that with all the love in my soul. I'm just tired.

In post 1359, Snork wrote:I say that with all the love in my soul. I'm just tired.

you just need some of this

In post 1357, Guyett wrote:

This thing creeps me out.

Also, can't you just be off the table for bleeding town frustration a few pages back?

Why does Thorface creep you out?

You don't feel like you could wake up in the middle of the night and see that thing hunched over you just sort of breathing and staring?

scarier than this?

In post 1358, Snork wrote: Assuming Anti is a town RB, and RB'd you, then YOU did not make the kill, so we can assume YOU are more likely town than someone else.

This looks like wishful thinking more than meaningful analysis. We know there are multiple Scum, and someone not committing the Nightkill means little to nothing, even if we could be guaranteed that Anti is
1. telling the truth about being RB
2. telling the truth about being Town.

It doesn't make him "more likely Town," especially not when he was being suspected enough to make him a good RB target.

In post 1366, goodmorning wrote:

In post 1358, Snork wrote: Assuming Anti is a town RB, and RB'd you, then YOU did not make the kill, so we can assume YOU are more likely town than someone else.

This looks like wishful thinking more than meaningful analysis. We know there are multiple Scum, and someone not committing the Nightkill means little to nothing, even if we could be guaranteed that Anti is
1. telling the truth about being RB
2. telling the truth about being Town.

It doesn't make him "more likely Town," especially not when he was being suspected enough to make him a good RB target.

It's a place to start dammit stop being such a poopooer.

In post 1353, Snork wrote:And there's a possibility Anti COULD be scum fake claiming, not knowing there is an absence of roleblockable PRs in the town. If he is, fucking kudos that's a master claim in this setup if it is what it looks like. That being said, and it needed to be said, I'm not touching him today. Unfortunately, if we don't lynch right today, we'll have no way to know. Well, actually, I guess he's a bigger threat at this point than the mason, so if he's town, I'd suspect scum are going to want him dead before the last mason. I dunno. If we lynch wrong today, my thinking is he could be alive in LYLO and we'd have no way to know. If we lynch right, and he's alive in LYLO, lynch his sorry ass. I don't know. I'm exhausted right now and this is what I'm thinking.

...or you could assume strangercoug knows how to balance a game and stop drinking the FUCKING DERP KOOLAID.

/slap

my first act as confirmed town....

/shakes Snork
/smacks Snork repeatedly

this is for ever doubting me. now let's lynch Jingle

VOTE: Jingle

coincidentally, i've played a setup exactly like this (except I was a mason that time around).

3 mafia goons, 2 masons, 1 roleblocker, the rest VTs

In post 1346, Snork wrote:

In post 1330, Titus wrote:

I sat home and got drunk

Aka no action.

So I guess that's it. We all claimed VTs but for Anti.

This was extremely underwhelming. I was hoping you had something up your sleeve.

It may not be a night action, but I always have something up my sleeve.

In post 1368, Antihero wrote:

In post 1353, Snork wrote:And there's a possibility Anti COULD be scum fake claiming, not knowing there is an absence of roleblockable PRs in the town. If he is, fucking kudos that's a master claim in this setup if it is what it looks like. That being said, and it needed to be said, I'm not touching him today. Unfortunately, if we don't lynch right today, we'll have no way to know. Well, actually, I guess he's a bigger threat at this point than the mason, so if he's town, I'd suspect scum are going to want him dead before the last mason. I dunno. If we lynch wrong today, my thinking is he could be alive in LYLO and we'd have no way to know. If we lynch right, and he's alive in LYLO, lynch his sorry ass. I don't know. I'm exhausted right now and this is what I'm thinking.

...or you could assume strangercoug knows how to balance a game and stop drinking the FUCKING DERP KOOLAID.

/slap

my first act as confirmed town....

/shakes Snork
/smacks Snork repeatedly

this is for ever doubting me. now let's lynch Jingle

VOTE: Jingle

I'm so game.

VOTE: Jingle

In post 1336, Dr Pants wrote:im also taking all no action claims as VT claims, if it isnt the case please say so

I was wondering if you thought of that. VT though.

So instead of running our paths can we let Pants say what his masterful plan is like the snail he is.

ok a lot of information coming:

1) despite what the final vote count read, everyone was voting SSK. Anti unvoted SSK to give him time to claim, while B_E (now SG) went derpy and used bold instead of vote tags. In essence, wagon analysis from day 2 is useless.

2) since no one has claimed a town PR that can be RB'd, Anti is basically IC'd. It seems unlikely that the only town PR's would be masons, so it would be surprising if Anti was a scum RB or fakeclaiming RB.

3) with this in mind, here are two wagons that caught my attention yesterday:

shroomish/jingle (4): Antihero, Dr Pants, Ika, SSK
Antihero (4): Titus, Dr Pants, Ika, SSK

Both cases we know 3 out of 4 are town. Antihero is probably town. The fact that Shroomish was being scum read hard, had a wagon that was most likely all town, and was sidelined in favor of an SSK wagon heavily suggests that Shroomish/Jingle is scum.

Ah, yes: VOTE: Jingle

The Antihero case would have been much more interesting if another town PR was in play. Oh well. What I can say here is that the only person on his wagon who could be scum is Titus. However, Titus was pushing Antihero before he claimed, and stopped the push after Anti claimed. Additionally, Titus has been adamantly calling Jingle scum. Titus' reaction to Guyett's gambit is actually more town minded than scum minded. Ika and I talked about this at night. As scum, if a day vig killed a claimed town PR then the reaction as scum would be to do a happy dance inside and shut the hell up, leaving town to eat itself alive. Our conclusion for now is that Titus is town.

So, why didn't scum attempt a push on Anti? He claimed a PR, and had a wagon that was probably all town (at best, 3 town and 1 scum), and had goats. At that point, Ika, SSK, and myself were all being scum read to some extent.

This is a bit speculation, but this is our best attempt at a second scum member: Snork. When Anti claimed and the wagon on him got speed, Snork counter pushed onto Ika, saying that "there's scum on the anti wagon". This effectively brought the Ika wagon to L-2, while the Anti wagon was at L-3. As scum, this is the optimal play. If town pushes out Anti, you keep the push on Ika, who was a strong scum read of a lot of people. If town pushes out Ika, then its ok because Ika was on a town PR and people found him scummy. Additionally, despite a poorly timed PR claim by Anti, Snork had no problem accepting the claim. Later in the day, after Ika and I claimed, this position was reversed, and Snork's game attitude and posting style changed as well.

This alone isn't really much. But if we get a scum flip on Jingle, which seems really likely at this point, then the interactions between Snork and that slot become important. Now, at this point we have to figure that scum is going to bus because they risk way to much if they don't. Because of this, any positions and interactions today don't really have merit in any associative argument. What I do know is that yesterday, Snork had no interaction with Shroomish. Snork's biggest town read early yesterday was Anti, who started the Shroomish wagon. Snork, however, didn't follow with any votes, comments, or arguments about Shroomish. Additionally, despite Shroomish being one of the best places to start a wagon after we had claims from Anti, Ika, and myself Snork opted to take a null position on Shroomish, effectively dismissing all of Shroomish's play so that Snork could read Jingle. That alone is strange, it ignores 2 days of ISO from a slot many people find to be scummy. Even though Snork now has Jingle as scummy, as I said previously scum is prepared to bus today since a lot of information is out.

So that's some of what I've got. Jingle is definitely scum. Snork is the best guess for a second scum, but the case needs work. Any other information or inaccuracies on Snork's case should be said. Third slot goes to either Bubba/Guyett/SG/GM.