I guess HEM/3b world means that HEM feels good shielding his read of 3b as distancing by focusing on LL, who he wants more. HEM focusing on LL also would match the tendencies of strong scum players, who often push non-VT towns very early since they notice something is off about their play. So strongwolf HEM can maybe scumread 3b and give himself room to re-evaluate later as he hopes that LL will be the lynch and flip green.
From what you say, I can see from your style that you're thinking out loud. What you don't do is follow through — only taking the safest vote on Peach, the inactive player. You said you're struggling to find decent scumreads, but you've really thrown at least 3 scumreads throughout the game: Me, LL, and InWho22.
You went from Alo being town (#225, #263) to scum (#345), for the same thing — ignoring people's question. Either I'm not understanding your process, or you don't have one. I'm betting you don't have one. If you do, I want to be enlightened.
In post 463, humaneatingmonkey wrote:I think I forgot to answer LL on this, and I've seen Kirari mention this.
3bounty and LL I find separately scummy. 3bounty is scummy. LL is scummy. It just makes sense that both can be partners. That's why I'm okay with lynching both. I think it gives me the most information going forward.
also he does transition to 3b here so you'd have to think he's planning on 3b not gaining traction
This also strongly implies that HEM would be the roleblocker and 3b the goon in a HEM/3b world
In post 762, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Gamestate is: Both Alo and 3b is on L-1. 4 people are willing to vote on Alo (Holden, LL, Clidd, 3b), 4 people are willing to vote on 3b (Monkey, Holden, Alo, Who22). Kirari, Yooh, and Holden are the swing votes. Holden prefers either a 3b or an Alo lynch. Yooh would not prefer to lynch both 3b and Alo. Kirari has kept vague about her desired lynches.
Yooh, Holden, and Kirari should weigh in so we can get a final candidate to get a claim and a lynch from.
If I have enough time, I would start a wagon on Kirari. I don't think I currently have enough willpower to sustain that.
Also I guess in this case the EoD push on me over 3b would match HEM/3b scum?
idk I remember thinking at the time that there were things in the HEM/3b push on each other early game that made it a lot more likely to not be S/S but I guess I'm not finding the exact posts that made me think that on a quick reread
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:30 pm
by Kirari Momobami
Strong!scum HEM could also be TvS with 3b here, but off these interactions I would probably sooner think HEM was scum than 3b maybe?
In post 345, 3bounty wrote:VOTE: Aloratom last post day 1. Lynch me or Alo, I'm done giving him the benefit of the doubt.
In post 519, 3bounty wrote:Let's get a lynch going here. Does everyone have a read list? Please post it.
In post 522, Kirari Momobami wrote:Masonry: lucky, alora, 3b, kirari, holdengolden, who
N0 cop guilty: clidd
Ez game
VOTE: clidd
I remember feeling like all this was pretty +townie for 3b
so I'd easier see HEM v 3b as TvS I guess?
And I don't get why clidd had HEM as like his top town, his pushback on Alora for the HEM read could to me easily be scum deciding that he was hard-towning his buddy and wanted to push anyone who presented them as a pairing
anyway I'm kinda just spewing thoughts at the moment, which will likely only make clidd harder to read but since this game is kinda dead it's the only way I know to keep it going but probably shouldn't set up more for clidd since I kinda just need to see where he goes in this gamestate to get a better read on him, and if he keeps doing nothing I really don't see why he isn't just the lynch I guess
ebwop: as SvT, this was backward, think it was clear in context
need to proofread more I think
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:03 pm
by HoldenGolden
I'm still a bit busy but:
I guess HEM/3b world means that HEM feels good shielding his read of 3b as distancing by focusing on LL, who he wants more. HEM focusing on LL also would match the tendencies of strong scum players,
who often push non-VT towns very early since they notice something is off about their play.
So strongwolf HEM can maybe scumread 3b and give himself room to re-evaluate later as he hopes that LL will be the lynch and flip green.
This is relying on the premise scum!monkey is able to read LL as a PR early on. I dont think there is enough to support this theory. I at least was hot on LL as well which if we are going with the notion monkey is scum is more than enough reason to why he pushes LL. Early game play to put suspicion while in ton I guess you could read into LL fit into quitting the game as some sort of pr tell, but that feels flimsy.
That does being up the fact I havent considered how HEM reacted to LLs statement to quit till day 2 to 3bs similar outburst day 1. I'll work that into my analysis.
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:04 pm
by HoldenGolden
In the meantime, can you prehaps explain why 3b is at the tail end of your pool? I'm struggling to see his actions as town and would appreciate any analysis to the contrary.
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:11 pm
by Kirari Momobami
As I said above in 1351
345 while this is disproportionate and random AtE, this specific "me or him" type stuff I more often see from town tbh. I did try to shut it down since it's not usually a good thought process for day 1
519 and the desire to just advance the game in some fashion I think reflects a sentiment that 3b is not super concerned with being townread, which is incidentally townie
528 can go either way. As scum I have kinda naked sheeped people, but I have also naked sheeped people to just keep the game moving as town as well. In this case since the post he specifically is quoting projects confidence (cop guilty on clidd) it makes sense that if he is town and townreads me that he should sheep it to if nothing else help me solve. It is pro-townie behavior even if it is certainly in a lot of people's scum range.
There are some posts that do move 3b into my PoE, specifically I wasn't impressed by 1318 and I have mixed feelings about 1112 that I don't want to expand on until Yooh posts more. Still, 345, 519, and 528 makes me a little cool on pushing 3b atm.
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:35 pm
by Elmo TeH AzN
Humaneatingmonkey, Clidd & LuckyLuciano have all been prodded.
Yoon has 24 hrs or I will be replacing them.
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:46 am
by LuckyLuciano
Under 2 days remaining. VOTE: Kirari. Let's get going already.
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:03 am
by clidd
I got home, posting soon.
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:21 am
by clidd
Hello, I'm back. Due to some routine personal peculiarities, I ended up delaying my return to this game. Some of the difficulty I had in the research is connected to the fact that I had to dig some games that refer to years ago, but that I believe are still valid. These two players were selected specifically for having meta content for reading, unlike Yooh and 3bounty. I decided not to enter the metaread margin at Kirari because I believe that her slot has a modest chance of being town, although Scum!Kirari could be doing a good job as scum sowing doubt.
Compared to Monkey's last scum record, the constancy of his posts in the game we are in is greater than the similar time period on Micro 932, indicating a significantly greater interest in this game. Considering the absence of scums games that approach the margin of 200 posts on D2, it is healthy to infer that the numerical constancy in posts is possibly connected to his town meta, especially due to the discrepant performance in attitude, which in Scum!Monkey manifests in a more *forced* way, different from the naturalness observed in the interaction between him and LuckyLuciano. It is also possible to notice that his scum game is very weak compared to the town game, something that is explicit when comparing the ease with which he was detected and lynched in Micro 932 (which he played with Holden), and in Mini Normal 1976, where he was forcibly replaced for abusing AtE to try to gain an advantage, which reinforces the emotional interpersonal trait of Scum!Monkey and the difference with the Town!Monkey posture in the game we are in. These indications alone point to the strong possibility of Town!Monkey, unless, of course, he changed his meta by anticipating any meta-dives. This leads me to show the following posts:
Hi. I'm just gonna play scum as town. I hope you don't mind bussing. Just towntell as much as you can so it's easy for me to lump you in my townreads. When we TR each other, defend me with meta.
If you have tips on how to play scum and this set up, I would like to know. We're probably talking about cops here as enemy PRs.
I'm gonna manipulate meta rn to include you in my sig so you can further assert meta understanding of me. TY
Don't jump on meta immediately. Jump on it when there's a fast wagon on me.
Oh, and I'm gonna do this to you vice versa.
If you don't start scumhunting, people will take note your vote parking and passiveness.
I believe that in the Scum!Monkey scenario there is a greater concern in the sequence of events that involve him and his partner, especially in the issue of buss/TR. It is very likely that if his partner is unable to execute any towntell effectively, he can either become an SR or a TR if the situation is reversed by presenting a meta to assist each other's innocence. In other words, there is an adaptability to the game state, something that I don't see fitting in the moment we are now, which is sporadic/indifferent. I also didn't see him actively defending any players close to the L-1, which can both indicate that his partner hasn't yet suffered a wagon, as well as that he is town. Another implication that I like to imagine is that Town!Holden, most likely, could detect Scum!Monkey, which makes me theorize that if Scum!Monkey is real, and my impression is incorrect, the viable partner, in my opinion, is Holden for his negligence/incompetence in detecting the traits he observed firsthand in the past game that both have in common. Of course, there is always the possibility of Monkey manipulating the meta, but it is something that could be applied without increasing the number of posts, but rather modifying the content of the posts, to differentiate them from the Scum!Monkey mentality. Now, changing to the Holden perspective:
I do not know the state of which my slot is in, but I going to assume it is in Hell's Kitchen right now. Do not feel afraid to bus me if that is the case. No matter what I post, I cannot fight back what Carl and the other's posts have done in terms of getting this slot SR (not their fault, just how the cookie crumbs). if you do, don't just magically come to the conclusion I am scum. Make a Big ass post about it finding reasons from every player to touch this slot to why I am scum. You are going to have to coast with that credit if you go down that route.
Called Carl was scum. His tone stuck out to me and felt disgustingly scummy to me. His later posts also fit a scum agenda nicely too
Thankfully it seems they are hammering Sushi no matter what today. This is good for us. My hat is off to Sushi as I feel they are in a bad spot IRL right now which makes me really upset that they are getting ML. I know what it is like for RL to come and bite you in the ass, so hopefully some time will mend some if it.
It does give me time to catch up though. I am shading you a bit in my catch up in case bussing must happen. I am honestly finding a lot of reasons to suspect people, so it will not be hard to get out of later if need be. Do not be scared to fake emotions and shit up the thread. I am most likely going to do that with Chen since he is on the right track (and I love shit posting lol).
Do you have any ideas for PRS or people to NK btw?
I am AtM with him. Appealing to memeing. Operation memelord is a go. I think I can bring back the Aaron wagon, but I need time which I do not have. I could push for it tomorrow however depending on what happens today. I seriously do not understand how no body felt the post where he admits to lieing is not scummy af.
What are you thinking with the wagon for today? I am defending sushi due to Carl feels. I will leave it up to you where you want to go since I really still do not know what is going on.
This is my general plan.
I been mentioning you a lot since I feel that would he best if I flip. I think depending on how you approach chen, I might be able to distance us even further. Day 3 we will hopefully be in MYLO. We both are probably going to be suspected due I fear since i do not see anybody actively scum reading me now and town is going to get paranoid I am alive.
For this reason, I want you to breadcrumb doctor today. Make a doctor who reference or something non-obvious. If we make it to day 3, at any point, you can fakeclaim doc and say you have been healing me. This gives me an excuse to be alive and takes you off the block. I think doctor is a good claim anyways as we can eliminate some roles from the pool.
Thoughts? It is a gambit, but I want that sweet day 3 win.
Aaron is scum read
Chen I'm trying to figure out how to present him. Part of me wants to take the moral high ground and gum up the thread about his lynch just to keep town's focus on that. Then towards the later of the day, push Aaron. To do that, I might have to argue for his townieness.
Thespio-nulltown. I think I can scum lean him assoicatively, but I do not have a great case against him.
Blastoide-null, but can scum lean some
Gamma is nulltown-townlean for that one reason plus the random unvote change feels werid.
I made that post to try and help you get out of the pool for today. This is the time you need to transition into more deep reads. Try to avoid hedging (going back and forth on a players alignment) and tell it straight as it is. You can do it some since it fits your playstyle, but do not do what blastoide did in that readpost.
I apologize as I should of been more clear about what to do.
This is fine. Do not panic.
Simply explain your reads here and we will make them sound good and then can post them in the thread. Everyone gets pressured.
Do not panic
Town is dummies. Town is currently discussing PR roles. They do not have a right to win by basically spoonfeding who they think pr is.
Do not panic.
You were hungry and wanted to post simple reads rn.
We got this.
That is because it is. It is what Carl vs Thepsio was day 1. They are on track to do it again just now Chen vs Gamma.
I guess while we are sulking in chat, I'll discuss I would approach chen this game to try and illustrate my mindset. Now, I am biased because I know he is town, so take that into consideration.
Let's consider the primary reason people like gamma are pushing chen: the read flip. Now ask yourself: "Why would I do this as scum? What advantages would it have for me if I was in chen spot?" In this example, nothing due to the timing of it. In fact, the only mafia motivation for this play would be because mafia wouldnt make this play. There is no need to draw attention to yourself on a mislynch you been pushing all day long by 180ing as scum, not when there is intent to hammer and no counterwagon passed one vote. None. You cannot rally another lynch so why bother to stick your neck out and flip your reads when you can just admit you were wrong day 2 and not be questioned for rebooking your reads? You are now giving your life away as scum for what? Mayyyyyybbee to fakeclaim and draw out real PR? Maybe to get a mislynch before going down? A lolhammer would of been better than what he did.
He is so painfully obvious that he is town from that alone. But, we have fostered with towns help where that is scummy. He IS doing the WIFOM play and IS willing to do this stunt because he shouldn't be able to. This is why we kill Kat, because it fuels it and Kat would never ever been read the same if they flipped reads.
Hope is an evil thing.
Hope is what generals pray for when defeat is imminent. It does not matter how the dice lands anymore; I am determine to win this now. When chance is thrown around, uncertain becomes reality. Nein, The game is ours. All we have to is occupy and size the means of which for them to fight back. All their inner disfunction will be their undoing after all while we sit back and enjoy our tea. We must not get complicit, but we can get egotistical now. Our men shall flank them when the time is right, and like a hammer, strike down to mark our glorious win.
-Private Holden of the Peoples Republic of Mafia
I feel that Scum!Holden's playstyle is more paced and planned in the medium/long term. He apparently knows how to use psychological devices well, such as paranoia, mistrust and tends to interact more than usual with his partner, so that if he is lynched, it is not possible to find associative evidence of distance in his ISO. However, something curious that I noticed is that during his game as scum, there are certain moments when he appeals to humor and shitpost as a tool of social distraction, something that I didn't notice occurring in the game we are in. Another point that I observed in that game is that he manages to simulate a towny consistency in a promising way, using logic to justify the inferences of its reads and the trajectory he obtained during the interactions. If he interacted with player X, Y and Z, it is likely that each word and statement will be remembered later, alluding to a progressive consistency that I, in particular, find quite difficult to find in a scum. In other words, his scum game is as strong as the town game, with few notable errors that can characterize contradictions/lies/inconsistencies. Something noticeable is that in the game we are in, compared to the Micro 932 in similar time periods (D2), the number of posts on it is below expectations for Town!Holden, and closer to the game Scum!Holden, although he has presented relatively good content on the last few pages. I am not sure to what extent the numerical factor alone can suggest something without the influence of external events, such as work, studies and personal life in general, which can lead to delays in accessing the game, but it is relevant to highlight these comparisons. I imagine that Scum!Holden may exist outside of Scum!Monkey, but Scum!Monkey cannot occur with Town!Holden, as he would be caught again. So the combinations between these two slots, in my perception, are Town!Monkey + Town!Holden, Scum!Holden + Town!Monkey or Scum!Holden + Scum! Monkey. At the moment, I am more inclined to believe that Town!Monkey is more possible because of the fluidity I felt in his ISO (gut rating), and I am not so convinced with Holden after reading his games. But, if we were to be simple in solving the game, the scum team would be Scum!3bounty + Scum!Yooh.
Conclusion:
Particularly, I would like to vote between 3bounty and Yooh today, because although I have speculated a lot about Holden and Monkey, it is not possible to say with a hundred percent certainty that this is something accurate, as today's flip is still necessary to complete the ideal inference I seek about the game's solution. This is a feature driven by PoE reasons, with an emphasis on townhunting rather than scumhunting. However, I would appreciate it if Luciano agreed to the lynch today, as I believe that I consider his opinion superior in the sense of analysis by play, something that I have a little more difficulty to evaluate without meta.
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:27 am
by clidd
I am reading the last pages more closely to interact.
Give me some time.
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:33 am
by Kirari Momobami
None of the posts I mention in 1351 strongly ping you as town from 3b?
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:36 am
by clidd
In post 1268, LuckyLuciano wrote:Clidd, I hope you realize that no matter what you present, Kirari is today's lynch, and I am the NK. If Kirari is a miss, we're looking at a LYLO tomorrow of {Clidd, Monkey, Holden, Yooh, 3b}. We have plenty of time, depending on your availability to work through a town!Kirari plan for tomorrow, but I think before investigating that you should commit your energy to finding who makes the most sense as a Kirari partner.
Look, I'm not so confident in Scum!Kirari at the moment, especially because of the way most players retreat to her lynch. It is evident that there is a distance from the mafia of a lynch that will be potentially town. I don't remember exactly, but I believe that after I mentioned the possibility of Kirari being town, a line of collective thoughts about this theory stagnated the game state, which for me is an indication that the mafia has chosen to agree with this hypothesis as well.
If I were to guess who Kirari's partner is, however, it would obviously be 3bounty for the sheep hypothetically instructed to distract our read from the interaction between the two. The intention would be:
"It doesn't make sense to have a public sheep on your partner, it must be an incriminating attempt to stain Kirari's slot!"
, When in reality it is nothing more than a subtle theater between two actors.
I've been using a lot of his gifs in the last few games and I felt it was time to get into the character.
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:50 am
by Kirari Momobami
So you changed it to get into character *for this specific game*?
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:51 am
by clidd
In post 1351, Kirari Momobami wrote:Strong!scum HEM could also be TvS with 3b here, but off these interactions I would probably sooner think HEM was scum than 3b maybe?
In post 345, 3bounty wrote:VOTE: Aloratom last post day 1. Lynch me or Alo, I'm done giving him the benefit of the doubt.
In post 519, 3bounty wrote:Let's get a lynch going here. Does everyone have a read list? Please post it.
In post 522, Kirari Momobami wrote:Masonry: lucky, alora, 3b, kirari, holdengolden, who
N0 cop guilty: clidd
Ez game
VOTE: clidd
I remember feeling like all this was pretty +townie for 3b
so I'd easier see HEM v 3b as TvS I guess?
And I don't get why clidd had HEM as like his top town, his pushback on Alora for the HEM read could to me easily be scum deciding that he was hard-towning his buddy and wanted to push anyone who presented them as a pairing
anyway I'm kinda just spewing thoughts at the moment, which will likely only make clidd harder to read but since this game is kinda dead it's the only way I know to keep it going but probably shouldn't set up more for clidd since I kinda just need to see where he goes in this gamestate to get a better read on him, and if he keeps doing nothing I really don't see why he isn't just the lynch I guess
Post 345 is towny, as it is difficult that from the perspective of a scum he wanted to call attention to a 50/50 lynch, unless, of course, he knows that this is not going to happen. Even so, it is irrational to have such an instance with a slot that would theoretically be lynched without much effort. I couldn't feel anything suggestive in posts 519 and 528. Monkey is not exactly my top town, Luciano is. When I commented on Alora's reads, my intention was to say that his reads, in general, were bad. The logic would be:
''he is wrong about me, so he is probably wrong about Monkey too, considering that in both reads the evaluation process was possibly the same, so the result will be flawed anyways''
Maybe you’re theorizing that I’ve changed my avatar to instigate an effect of social oblivion, right ?
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:56 am
by Kirari Momobami
OK.
My two takes from you from this page is that:
a) you changed your avatar to get into the mood for this game, which is statistically townie and also townie specifically for this game given half the players have like given up
b) you just argued HEM is town because, if I understand this right, he's outside his scum range.
If your entire argument boils down to that sentiment (he's outside his scumrange) why didn't you just say that, and if there was more to your conclusion than that in that wall, what was it? Because I think that's all I understood. I didn't really get what you were doing in the middle section with all the quotes from the other game
Basically I like your slot more for the avi change but dislike the fact that I still feel like your "HEM town" argument feels very weak and almost exclusively from a meta read that I would have to investigate my own to agree or disagree with
My two takes from you from this page is that:
a) you changed your avatar to get into the mood for this game, which is statistically townie and also townie specifically for this game given half the players have like given up
b) you just argued HEM is town because, if I understand this right, he's outside his scum range.
If your entire argument boils down to that sentiment (he's outside his scumrange) why didn't you just say that, and if there was more to your conclusion than that in that wall, what was it? Because I think that's all I understood. I didn't really get what you were doing in the middle section with all the quotes from the other game
Basically I like your slot more for the avi change but dislike the fact that I still feel like your "HEM town" argument feels very weak and almost exclusively from a meta read that I would have to investigate my own to agree or disagree with
Are you getting uncomfortable that HEM is not getting the scumread you think he deserves ?
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:01 pm
by Kirari Momobami
I'm rereading it again and you're saying Holden would have caught him if he was scum which is not a sentiment I would agree with necessarily given Holden's sporadic interest in this game, as well as the fact that Holden catching him once before hardly guarantees a 100% readrate
Anyway your other point that he's polarized I guess I can see but he's only 50 posts above 1946 which is still I think in the typical margin of error for a developing scum player
I'm not even married to HEM scum, if he's town I'd absolutely love to get him out of my PoE, I just still don't really get why you're moving him out of your PoE or see anything that would actually change my "in PoE" read that he's been in for a lot of the game
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:03 pm
by Kirari Momobami
In post 1370, clidd wrote:Are you getting uncomfortable that HEM is not getting the scumread you think he deserves ?
No, I'm trying to understand your trajectory on him. To be honest day 1 I thought you were softing masons with him, that's the type of confidence you seemed to be expressing and I don't see how your "alora's reads were bad" and "he's outside his scumrange maybe" arguments justify your "worst possible reads" argument you made to Alora day 1
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:13 pm
by clidd
In post 1372, Kirari Momobami wrote:
No, I'm trying to understand your trajectory on him. To be honest day 1 I thought you were softing masons with him, that's the type of confidence you seemed to be expressing and I don't see how your "alora's reads were bad" and "he's outside his scumrange maybe" arguments justify your "worst possible reads" argument you made to Alora day 1
I did not understand exactly how my trajectory on monkey is confused. He had a good tone during the discussion between Monkey x Luciano, who did not escalate to something emotional (as he did in the past game as a scum where he was forcibly replaced for being toxic). There is no connection between my confidence on him and the soft-mason scenario, as that would be very predictable and basically an insult to my game as PR. If I'm not mistaken, I got to assess Alora's behavior, which was very inconsistent, and it got worse when he announced his reads about me and Monkey. His lack of explanation and cohesion in elucidating why I would be scum is also another factor that contributed to the inference that his reads were bad. Perhaps not the *worst possible read*, but the *worst with the available information*. I would be more comfortable if he inferred that 3bounty was scum by his sheep on you, as it would be more naturally. I did two good analyzes, he should have taken that into account.
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:18 pm
by clidd
Plus: the way he reacted to my suspicions with an SR (omgus) is basically a scummy attitude, as a town perspective will always consider that the accuser could potentially be a mistaken town, so you must convince the other side that the accusations are unfounded . It is similar to my situation with you, where I managed to see a window where you can be town, even though you suspect me.
