Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[northsidegal]

nsg out, will probably check the thread in a bit but that's all i've got to say for now

[Oxy]

In post 1239, Oxy wrote:
Ah, lol - this is actually directed at Ruru. I don't think I'm lynching ruru today without a red check or something

why? this is a short but important question.

I'll dig out posts for you if you want but here are the short answers:
A lot of her posts where she talks through different probabilities, nk value, etc present a game solving mentality that would be difficult as scum. This is especially true because the logical conclusions she comes to have all made sense from her pov.

Throughout this game ruru has advocated a very guarded play style for town. E.g., "We shouldn't let scum know that they are lower on the priority list for pressure because it takes them off the hook until we get to them." and "We shouldn't talk about lynches. We should talk about wagons."

This behavior was sure to draw attention, and Ruru has come under suspicion in this game for this behavior. It's not lamist because it doesn't look townie in this setting.

It's just town!Ruru bringing her own opinions and strategy to this game.

[Oxy]

I can't realistically tell you how likely my read on Ruru is to be accurate, but she's pretty darn lock town for me.

[Oxy]

@NSG and where did Ofrhz go in your last read list?

[pinturicchio]

Ok no I'm not capable of rereading right now, but I know that, while I read the thread this 2 days (irl days I mean) I got a good way of simplifying my reads:

There are 6 players along with me, 2 of them are the scumteam. Knowing that, there are 15 possible scumteams. But I can add some restrictions by including my reads:
- Oxy is town (obvious read)
- NSG (Dino's read, I already stated that not trusting Dino about this, knowing that Dino is town, is not a good idea. Scumteam confirmed town NSG by killing Dino. Yeah there's a chance of "NSG killed Dino so everyone would know that Dino was town so we would know that he was sincerely townreading NSG and now NSG is conftown bla bla bla"... bullshit)
- ofrhz most likely town

Now there are 3 players who could be the scumteam. That means there are 3 possible scumteams, and that's easier to analyze than 15 teams, but instead of analyzing, I'll comment where they are now:
- {ruru, Scioness}: Scioness is hard scumreading ruru, and thinks that her partner is between three players: Oxy, ofrhz and skitter. Ruru is scumreading Scioness too.
- {ruru, skitter}: skitter is actually voting ruru, and ruru is scumreading skitter too. Skitter doesn't like team analysis without a flip, so she's saying that ruru is her least townread of all at this point. ruru associates skitter with Scioness,
- {skitter, Scioness}: skitter is townreading Scioness saying that their posts are well composed and with a lot of logic behind, while Scioness thinks that skitter has been pretty townish, but by associations, she could be scum with ruru.

Now knowing this, how possible are this scumteams? From less likely to most likely:
- {skitter, Scioness}: They're both pushing ruru, and after that...? If ruru flips town, the next lynch would absolutely be between these two, so strategy-wise what they're doing would be suboptimal, as it would be too shortsighted.
- {ruru, Scioness}: a lot more likely, but at this point I'm trusting Scioness (a little) more than skitter. See {ruru, skitter} to know why
- {ruru, skitter}: I scumread skitter independently from any association, specially because of her behavior around Drixx' wagon, and her "until we get a scumflip I try to focus on individual scumminess and not choose who to vote based on associatives", while is a good advice, pings me a lot because she has only one scumread; if ruru flips town, then what? Still no associations. Also is pretty convenient not associating your scumread with anyone since then you can go wherever you want on the next day without compromising. The thing is, you know ruru is scum because she's your partner, so you being right about your scumread would give you credibility for any read you try to push on the next day.

So, being {skitter, Scioness} basically discarded:
- By PoE, ruru is scum
- By personal scumread, skitter is scum

Two important things to add:
- Ruru not voting and her partner bussing her could mean that, if there's a scum PR (roleblocker or rolecop), it's most likely that the PR is not ruru. Then, ruru is a Goon, and her partner the PR (if there's one)
- Eliminating Scioness by PoE doesn't mean I trust her, but in a world where she's town, my restriction of ofrhz wouldn't be ok (that's why I worded it with "most likely" unlike Oxy and NSG), and that would complicate the analysis; {ofrhz, skitter} would be a plausible possibility, and ruru would stop being scum by PoE, so I'll rather follow my gutread on ofrhz being town because I'd go nuts without that

Now, who should I vote?
- ruru is the safe vote, as voting skitter could still be risky with the possibility of Scioness being scum, but ruru is most likely the Goon if there's a scum PR
- skitter would be risky, but if she's ruru's partner, she is most likely the scum PR, which would be a better flip

[northsidegal]

I can't realistically tell you how likely my read on Ruru is to be accurate, but she's pretty darn lock town for me.

did you have this read day one or has this come more from her day two content?

@NSG and where did Ofrhz go in your last read list?

oops, forgot that.

{nsg}
{oxy, pintu}
{ofhrz, scioness}
{skitter, ruru}

maybe this is better? i think this is better, actually.

[Oxy]

My latest reread and evaluation of ruru was over night phase, but her D2 hasn't pinged me? You posted a couple of things about her D2, so let me look again.

[Oxy]

In post 1147, ofrhz wrote:
from my POV, I'm town, Math is town, skitter and Oxy are very likely town, so Scioness is the only one that could be scum. I'm kind of on the fence about Scioness, she was okay up until her "We must lynch skitter today" thought process which made no sense.

My reasons for voting are the same as yesterday, and I'm pretty sure I explained them yesterday, but basically you're not genuinely scumhunting. For example, you say things like "I think odds are at least one scum was on the wagon," which is a statement that anyone could make by doing a math calculation and requires very little analysis of the game and the people in it.

in response to the bolded – what about me and pintu and ruru?

i really like the italicized there, even though i think you'll often find players make statements like that a lot and i don't really think it's more likely to come from scum than town, i like the observation and, if left unsubstantiated, definitely could be a scumtell.

I agree with this in principle, but Ruru has consistently taken the math to a higher level of analysis as a way of coming to a reasoned conclusion. That this instance didn't require a more complex approach does not make it scummy.

[northsidegal]

Ok no I'm not capable of rereading right now, but I know that, while I read the thread this 2 days (irl days I mean) I got a good way of simplifying my reads:

There are 6 players along with me, 2 of them are the scumteam. Knowing that, there are 15 possible scumteams. But I can add some restrictions by including my reads:
- Oxy is town (obvious read)
- NSG (Dino's read, I already stated that not trusting Dino about this, knowing that Dino is town, is not a good idea. Scumteam confirmed town NSG by killing Dino. Yeah there's a chance of "NSG killed Dino so everyone would know that Dino was town so we would know that he was sincerely townreading NSG and now NSG is conftown bla bla bla"... bullshit)
- ofrhz most likely town

Now there are 3 players who could be the scumteam. That means there are 3 possible scumteams, and that's easier to analyze than 15 teams, but instead of analyzing, I'll comment where they are now:
- {ruru, Scioness}: Scioness is hard scumreading ruru, and thinks that her partner is between three players: Oxy, ofrhz and skitter. Ruru is scumreading Scioness too.
- {ruru, skitter}: skitter is actually voting ruru, and ruru is scumreading skitter too. Skitter doesn't like team analysis without a flip, so she's saying that ruru is her least townread of all at this point. ruru associates skitter with Scioness,
- {skitter, Scioness}: skitter is townreading Scioness saying that their posts are well composed and with a lot of logic behind, while Scioness thinks that skitter has been pretty townish, but by associations, she could be scum with ruru.

Now knowing this, how possible are this scumteams? From less likely to most likely:
- {skitter, Scioness}: They're both pushing ruru, and after that...? If ruru flips town, the next lynch would absolutely be between these two, so strategy-wise what they're doing would be suboptimal, as it would be too shortsighted.
- {ruru, Scioness}: a lot more likely, but at this point I'm trusting Scioness (a little) more than skitter. See {ruru, skitter} to know why
- {ruru, skitter}: I scumread skitter independently from any association, specially because of her behavior around Drixx' wagon, and her "until we get a scumflip I try to focus on individual scumminess and not choose who to vote based on associatives", while is a good advice, pings me a lot because she has only one scumread; if ruru flips town, then what? Still no associations. Also is pretty convenient not associating your scumread with anyone since then you can go wherever you want on the next day without compromising. The thing is, you know ruru is scum because she's your partner, so you being right about your scumread would give you credibility for any read you try to push on the next day.

So, being {skitter, Scioness} basically discarded:
- By PoE, ruru is scum
- By personal scumread, skitter is scum

Two important things to add:
- Ruru not voting and her partner bussing her could mean that, if there's a scum PR (roleblocker or rolecop), it's most likely that the PR is not ruru. Then, ruru is a Goon, and her partner the PR (if there's one)
- Eliminating Scioness by PoE doesn't mean I trust her, but in a world where she's town, my restriction of ofrhz wouldn't be ok (that's why I worded it with "most likely" unlike Oxy and NSG), and that would complicate the analysis; {ofrhz, skitter} would be a plausible possibility, and ruru would stop being scum by PoE, so I'll rather follow my gutread on ofrhz being town because I'd go nuts without that

Now, who should I vote?
- ruru is the safe vote, as voting skitter could still be risky with the possibility of Scioness being scum, but ruru is most likely the Goon if there's a scum PR
- skitter would be risky, but if she's ruru's partner, she is most likely the scum PR, which would be a better flip

by the way, really like this analysis by pintu there, not sure if scum him would make that post

[northsidegal]

oops, didn't mean to quote that whole thing, sorry.

[Oxy]

Actually no, I think the Drixx Lynch could have been entirely town motivated.

VOTE: ruru

also, that statement by ruru was in response to this statement by Ofrhz. Since ruru's conclusion was pretty basic, isn't it fair for her to question why Ofrhz has reached a non-basic conclusion?

[Oxy]

I agree with you on that post by Pin 100%

[Scioness Sajj]

from my POV, I'm town, Math is town, skitter and Oxy are very likely town, so Scioness is the only one that could be scum. I'm kind of on the fence about Scioness, she was okay up until her "We must lynch skitter today" thought process which made no sense.

I would think town!SS would have preferred a no-lynch in general. She's saying Oxy and I are quite scummy and there's 834. So, if the first Drixx wagon was comprised of scum!Oxy and/or scum!ruru then why would she call Drixx a low info flip in 935? And then hammer him anyway despite not scumreading him. It doesn't add up to me.

Why would you even think that when I was first person to question Mathdino's no lynch idea? The rest of your argument is ignoring that I couldn't wagon you alone and the time issue we had with the lynch that was talked about.

I don't understand the setup well enough to say for sure, but if I had the reads you said you had, I would have preferred a no lynch or at least tried to advocate the idea for a bit so others could tell me why I'm wrong.

Why do you make assumptions like that about things you know you don't fully understand? You have made up a whole story about what town me would or wouldn't do when you don't even have an opinion on the issue yourself.

I think it generally is better to lynch D1 in every game, doesn't matter the circumstances. Sure I'd prefer my scumread to be lynched but I don't see much benefit to not lynching at all on D1.

If you're scum, doing some weird delayed announcement of your vote even though you already decided it only increases town's disorganization. If you're scum with skitter, it actually makes perfect sense that you wouldn't want to be involved in skitter vs. Drixx until you realized Drixx wouldn't get lynched without your help.

Wow this misreping.
Nothing was delayed. I have announced it earlier so people would know what I had in mind. My case was posted before Mathdino replaced in and wagons started forming.
I think I have also mentioned somewhere that I didn't want to answer to your engage on my case because I believed my case was enough I didn't want to distract people with 1v1 because I knew I would be unavailable and we were too close to the deadline.

She never answered 850 (or 1004) and I feel like it's pretty relevant to the game state considering she was leaving her vote on me and a last minute wagon even formed on me afterward

Not relevant to do game state, relevant to you. I left my vote there because I find you scummy, that's what I'm supposed to do when I think I have found scum, vote them.

How is a vote and a big wall case (which didn't make sense at all, and that you still haven't addressed) on a player who could conceivably get lynched not relevant to the game state?

Not "not" relevant but a lot less relevant than you make it look. You think it is relevant to the gamestate because it was about you. But objectively it was one case (apparently weak one) that nobody really cared about. One post that people disregarded. Again, last minute wagon on you had nothing to do with my case. You are portraying it like it is important to the game but my case being weak is nai and it didn't trigger a lynch.

You are fussing so much over a weak case on you that nobody was interested in and trying to force a connection between it and your wagon but there is no connection. Your own post made people vote you not I.

This is also were I think you are trying to play the victim. It has 'she could have lynched me!' undertones.

The wagon on you formed because of your vote on skitter not my case.

That's why ofrhz voted. But why did

you

vote?

why did I vote you? I don't know maybe because I scumread you lol

- Oxy - Scioness is willing to sheep Mathdino on NSG but not willing to sheep Mathdino's most confident town read? ..........??? I'm not even going to entertain this because I was independently townreading Oxy before Mathdino even showed up to the game.

There is a difference between Mathdino having a townread on NSG when he probably has read every game she has ever played just because he wants to be that good at reading her. (

Add to it that I have played with NSG before, if I am to be confident in any of my reads this game I bet on NSG beng town

).

Do you mind explaining why you're townreading NSG now? I understand sheeping Mathdino but that's not what the second part sounds like

Now? I never scumread her. I had a townlean after the lynch, mostly gut and no visible scum motivation. Math flipping town made me believe more that I'm right. I don't remember the percentage I have used earlier, it's the strongest townread I have anyways.

I do think Scioness asking me who the nk should have been was scummy. It was indirectly asking me who I thought the PRs were.

Did you really? If you thought asking was suspicious why didn't you engage me or add it to the reason you were voting me for?
Nope, it was face value question. I have asked because

I wasn't really surprised to see him dead, he did shake up the game in a way that the scum team wouldn't be happy with

.

Drixx flips town, probably lynch
Scioness --> ofhrz --> ruru (on Sci townflip) --> whoever of NSG/skitter30 is still alive (on Sci scumflip)

Hmm...

If you have something to say then say it, don't rely on people picking up your 'clues'. Posting things like that you are just creating noise.

You could share your thoughts and move game forward but instead you have decided to go ISO me again to correct your reads instead of updating them.

[Scioness Sajj]

Ruru either didn't read the game after I have made the case on her or today was just a day of villainizing me.

Anyways VOTE: ruru (not really up to ending the day tho)

I hate wall posting how do I not wall post when people are wall posting at me?

Hi NSG!

I think I still didn't replay to everything I was asked to. More tomorrow.

[Scioness Sajj]

I feel like the thread gets messy becuase of the delays I have in answering.

[Oxy]

Ofrhz + Pin

that pair of end of day votes precludes this pretty strongly.
Ofrhz + Skitter - plausible
Ofrhz + Sajj - Less likely than Ofrhz + Skitter but not impossible

Pin + Skitter - Less likely than Ofrhz + Skitter but not impossible
Pin + Sajj - This is possible. I wish we could have seen what would have happened if a sajj wagon had started towards end of day

Skitter + Saj - Less likely than the rest I think because of the strong defenses they have given for one another.

so I guess what I'm saying is I want to lynch Skitter today.

If Skitter flips town, I want to lynch Sajj -> Pin/Ofrhz
If Skitter flips scum, I want to lynch Ofrhz -> Pin/Sajj

VOTE: Skitter30

[Scioness Sajj]

I never really gave strong defnses for Skitter though.

[Scioness Sajj]

also I think skitter has a point about validating scumreads with associations.

What do you mean by this?[/quote]

"by" instead of "with". I pretty much agree with what you have said about it.

[Oxy]

She is the most hard working person here and has been really objective.

You all wanna lynch her because she freaked out and unvoted. And she did that after she saw drixx wagon got to l-1 in 20 minutes.

I don't understand how can you say her reads are inaccurate when you have that bs scum lean on me and you are sheeping NSG.

Ruru is more optimal lynch or Oxy or

even me imo.

People have the most polarizing opinions about us three I believe.

Drixx lynch would be low info lynch I think. That's also no good.

emphasis mine

[Scioness Sajj]

1st - she did spend alot of time trying to communicate with us noobs and explaning things. that's nai.
2nd - yeah well I don't believe that being town = has to survive no matter what.

I have never strongly defended skitter arguments wise.

[Oxy]

I guess we can agree to disagree, but given the context of your comments, I read them as being the most emphatic defense you've made for anyone other than yourself in this game.

[Scioness Sajj]

well yeah I can agree on emphatic.

that's only becuase nobody is trying to lynch NSG

[Scioness Sajj]

I feel like you even engaging on my case is proof of you being a scum. You weren’t interested in finding out why ofrhz voted you, you barely bothered with him. But when I made a case on you you felt a need to defend yourself even though you thought the case was weak and made by confused town/scum.

and what conclusion do you draw from this? like, why is ruru only defending your case instead of ofhrz's proof of her being scum?

I think she engaged becuase a case would bring more attention to her than a vote with bearly any reasoning.

[Scioness Sajj]

NSG - I need you to tell me how strongly you believe in that towntell from Pintu. Also what do you think of skitter now?

i think it's decently likely to be a towntell – not

outside of his scumrange

, necessarily, just something that he'd be more likely to have done as town, especially given that i wasn't in the game when he did it. (and thus it's unlikely that he as scum intentionally did what i would be looking for as a towntell).

i'm still paranoid of skitter. i kind of

want

to trust mathdino's read there because it makes things a lot easier but i'm not sure if i really can.

tell me about this paranoia. something she wrote pinged you or just gut?

[northsidegal]

NSG - I need you to tell me how strongly you believe in that towntell from Pintu. Also what do you think of skitter now?

i think it's decently likely to be a towntell – not

outside of his scumrange

, necessarily, just something that he'd be more likely to have done as town, especially given that i wasn't in the game when he did it. (and thus it's unlikely that he as scum intentionally did what i would be looking for as a towntell).

i'm still paranoid of skitter. i kind of

want

to trust mathdino's read there because it makes things a lot easier but i'm not sure if i really can.

tell me about this paranoia. something she wrote pinged you or just gut?

i mean, you could call it gut, it's just more a sense of reading her posts and thinking that it all could come from scum – i've never seen something in one of her posts that would make my go "oh, that probably doesn't come from scum!skitter".