In post 1334, Green Crayons wrote:Okay I'm going to take a break but the cycle-Ali-Norwegian interaction in the 36-41 page range is just so damned weird. Ali is trying hard to not lynch cycle but trying to lynch Norweg. Norweg is trying hard to get other people to not lynch cycle by voting human. Ali and cycle are having a biting back and forth, and meanwhile Norweg is 1+ing the Ali burns.
quote or links please
You can start at Post 851 and just keep reading until Ali goes to bed after talking about weed.
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 1:44 am
by humaneatingmonkey
Isis, can I get a metaread on Elements and check if he's still playing to his town meta?
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
So I'm a little bit of two minds about this, but I come down on it suggesting FB is town.
1. Cycle's vote on FB was really bad. If FB is scum with Cycle, if Cycle wanted to he could have come up with something that looked moderately okay rather than a complete trash vote. I know Cycle is apparently a low effort poster, but tossing a trash vote onto a scum player doesn't really net either town points, even if there's a flip. So I'm reading this as more likely FB town because there isn't really a benefit if FB were scum.
2. Cycle's vote on FB created a counterwagon to Cycle. And then Cycle jumped off. Two problems in viewing this.
First is that a counterwagon is suspicious if we assume one of the other players on the FB wagon were scum, otherwise it was just town following a bad cycle vote. But it *was* a horribly bad cycle vote. And it created non-cycle wagon momentum, so I'm willing to suspect the players on it.
Second is how to interpret Cycle's quick unvote. FB-scum view is that Cycle was like "oh shit i don't actually want to lynch my buddy." But another view is that Cycle didn't want to push a bad lynch on FB-town. And
that
view aligns with how Cycle treated the Norwegian counterwagon if we accept that Norwegian is town.
3. Another thing that sticks with me is just how long the FB wagon lingered after cycle jumped off. Two scum jumping off the same wagon in close proximity isn't a good look. If we suspect that another scum was voting FB (something I'm entertaining), I would expect the next scum to unvote FB was less likely to be the unvote that sequentially followed Cycle's unvote.
In sum, I think this makes FB more likely town. I think it makes votato, ABR, and elements more likely scum, particularly votato and ABR.
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 2:29 am
by Green Crayons
In post 1381, Green Crayons wrote:I know Cycle is apparently a low effort poster, but tossing a trash vote onto a scum player doesn't really net either town points, even if there's a flip. So I'm reading this as more likely FB town because there isn't really a benefit if FB were scum.
This might be borderline circular but I think it makes sense. Surface level analysis (scum voted FB, FB must be town) doesn't work or benefit FB-scum, and so second level (no scum benefit to vote FB-scum because of surface level analysis, FB more likely town) plays.
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 2:33 am
by Green Crayons
omg lol i am half asleep because i just realized that cycle and votato had their votes on FB before the cycle-wagon heated up
nevermind. Ignore everything I say for now on.
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 2:34 am
by Green Crayons
I'm going back to bed.
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 3:11 am
by Albert B. Rampage
In post 1373, Deimos27 wrote:VOTE: ABR L-2
I'm agreed that this slot is the first priority for pressure at this point.
@ABR, if you were so convinced that Clemency was town, why didn't you state why and try to convince someone to swing Elements? You had potential influence there considering how many players have expressed respect for you.
Actually I wasn't 100% sure
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 4:00 am
by Green Crayons
Okay this is just for me because maybe I can't even read VCs still.
In post 1092, Alisae wrote:idunno who ur talking about but I like Cycle Men because as scum this is a push that doesn't really make sense if norwee is town, and if norwee is scum it doesn't make sense to support him on a bad theory, also he would probably be hesistant to considering he is also a lynch and the person being lynched by isis and monkey, so if he flips scum then norwee would probably just get lynched anyways.
who is this directed at
Anyway, Elements' change in vote puts both Cycle and Elements at 3 votes each, which Cycle criticizes:
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).
I'm not sure why he voted cycle again (he said I was very convincing in Post 1151, the post right before his 1152 cycle vote, but at that time I wasn't voting Cycle).
At any rate, you'll note that votato joined the Elements wagon (tying Elements and Cycle wagons) a few posts before Elements jumped off Cycle (to put Elements-wagon in a 1-vote lead).
In post 1189, votato wrote:my take is that people spammed the thread wayyyy too much. At least now we have people split into two camps basically. I think there might well be at least one scum on each wagon, and im not sure i like most of the reasoning behind peoples votes. but at least now if we have a lynch we will learn something. i dont really like alisae, elements, crayon, isis, or firebringer. isis is a weaker scumread. cyclemen is being strange but im not sure what to make of it yet. im fine with leaving cyclemen alive to gather more info. norway is also unclear for me, but the association with ali should help clarify once one of them flips.
In post 1192, votato wrote:like i said, i think cycle men is fine to save for later when we have more info.
i think people who ask people to tell them what they think about their vote are generally scummy. I'm also not sure i follow your progression that leads you to change your vote. It almost seems like your vote changes with the way the wind is blowing rather than as your reads shift.
Note that there's not really a reason for voting Elements. Just a reason to not vote for Cycle. And the person he's criticizing for lack of progression in 1192 is human (which in itself isn't AI, but it's another person he's attacking without giving any justification for his Elements vote).
Anyway. This VC holds for a while until we finally get the ultimate Cycle-vs-Elements wagons:
It's a bit odd to throw a vote onto a competing bandwagon, to try to push that competing bandwagon to a lynch instead of the one you disagree with, with you think no lynch is a viable option:
In post 1284, Alisae wrote:Are people calling me scum because I wanna hammer something to make sure we have a lynch?
Lmao alright sure whatever
It doesn't matter if we no lynch its nightless.
My takeaways are:
1. Ali doesn't get town points for the hammer. She sat on Elements for a while and a final shift before Looker viewed the thread isn't AI.
But. Ali apparently didn't realize that Cycle voted for Elements before her, as she was asking Cycle to vote Elements in Post 1047 and Post 1049. This mistake was because of an inaccurate VC, as noted by mod comment in Post 1056. The fact that Ali's mistake appears tied to an incorrect VC leads me to believe that it was genuine.
So here's the Q: would Ali-scum follow Cycle-scum's vote onto Elements and call for Cycle-scum to vote Elements even though he already had--without knowing that Cycle-scum had actually made that vote when there is daytalk? I don't think so. I think scum pay close attention to what their teammates do, including keeping in mind what they post (like votes). I suppose it's possible that Ali-scum was lazy and only checked VCs (but VCs aren't necessarily up-to-date accurate); or that Ali-scum missed this if scumteam are like "okay let's try to not use daytalk as much as possible," but literally daytalk is their only advantage in this game so I'm not adopting that rationale as a basis to justify a potential scum theory.
Anyway. I'm feeling more secure about Ali-town, despite the weird Ali-Cycle-Norwegian mashup.
2. Norwegian, votato, and ABR all failed to actually give reasons for their Elements vote. votato gave reasons why he should be voting other people. ABR gave reasons why he shouldn't have voted Elements to counter the Cycle wagon. I think that makes each of them suspicious for their separate reasons.
As scum (typically) want to socially distance on votes, because Norwegian was the closest-in-time to Cycle-scum's Elements vote (skipping Ali), he's less suspicious. Also, while Norwegian didn't give a reason for his vote, he doesn't have extra baggage like votato or ABR.
I don't really know which of votato's (giving reasons to vote other players) or ABR's (giving reasons to not join the Elements counterwagon) additional baggage is more suspicious. I'm disinclined to believe that 3 scum were on the Elements-wagon, though, so they're both on my shortlist for today.
3. Looker has limited access relative to everyone else, and so his lack of involvement in all of these goings on is not AI.
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 4:07 am
by NorwegianboyEE
While i wouldn't be against a wagon on ABR, i find the points against Alisae too many to ignore. VOTE: Alisae
In post 1322, Alisae wrote:im not scum and i feel like if I was scum with Clemency here, he doesn't try to align himself with Norwee when Norwee thinks that I'm cordinating votes on him. That whole interaction just doesn't make sense.
pointing out of a plan to distance?
Are you accusing Alisae of drafting a distancing plan in the main topic?
VOTE: Firebringer
This vote-hopping atmosphere is kind of tricky. How effective would a bus be in a nightless?
you said nothing in my tunnel had any merit, but then you say here that you weren't 100% sure. so you surely you had something on him that would indicate that he was scum, but you weren't too sure about it. if there was, i would love to hear it. if not, maybe i'm not understanding you? i wouldn't be surprised because you're not really making yourself understandable.
while you're on it, i want to re-quote the questions i have for you that you must have missed:
In post 1375, humaneatingmonkey wrote:And also why does it seem like he was encouraging a no-lynch at the end of the day? I want to know his POV on that as well.
