FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Alter Ego]

That can wait, btw. You look busy.

[Servant Assassin]

Well, normally a player being that widely scumread would set off warning signals for me - you have to ask yourself who this person is paired with if

everyone

wants them gone, and that answer is usually "no one". However, does the state of the thread reflect this? Plenty of people were throwing shade at Archer during the master phase, yet discussion of them has been minimal in the first 24 hours today. Compare that to how quickly votes jumped out on Shielder. Further, look at how archer is playing - they're mostly laying low, making the occasional aside with the one long spoilered post tallking about shielder with berserker (possibly spoiled just so most people wouldn't bother reading?). It has the distinct look of someone trying their hardest to avoid attention. By contrast, Shielder seems at least self-conscious of how they are viewed, and are trying to defend themself, even if most of what they say makes so little sense I begin to wonder if their posts are written by an AI. Now, scum can be self-conscious and defensive as well, but do townies

ever

try to hide away from pressure on them by posting minimally? Very rarely, I think.

And then there was this post, which

immediately

set off my slime-o-meter:

yeah let's just yeet this guy out
probably anti-spewing or something
VOTE: Shielder

This is perhaps the scummiest post that has been made in the topic so far. I made post about it in my notes right away. I was hoping someone else would call it out, but no one has. I must admit, I'm a little disappointed in you all. This has all the vibes of

quick, eliminate someone, anyone who isn't me!

These are the words of someone trying to push along a quick elimination rather than someone trying to actually find mafia.

I've other misgivings of archer as well. As mentioned, a significant portion of their early posting was lengthy quote stripes that gave the appearance of content without actually saying much at all, with a lot of lines that were simply commentary or questions that served little purpose. They just didn't have much in the way of actual analysis, and when it did it was often worded in a very hedge-y way. When I brought up my issue with this, this exchange followed:

not really a fan of that post

Why though

big pile of quotestripes with too many empty lines, a lot of hedges, no real clarity of purpose

I've been debating whether I should break the spirit of the game and do a meta-dive on you to figure out whether my issues have any substance to them. I don't know if I'll actually bother.

This sounds like something scum would say.

y, tho?

big pile of quotestripes with too many empty lines, a lot of hedges, no real clarity of purpose

What hedges?

Thoughts on Avenger people? Overall, I feel like Avenger has been very upfront on wanting the vote, but I don't really remember anything townie he's done in particular. I still think he could be a good town leader though.

No, I can easily see scum faking a townread on someone for reasons like that and then retracting it. First, it makes them look better. Second, it makes them not obligated to townread someone. Not calling AE scum, but I don't think this is great reason for townread.

Overall, I like Assassin more than Lancer here, but that doesn't mean Lancer is scum. Hopefully, I'll be able to do more real time stuff soon.

I've been debating whether I should break the spirit of the game and do a meta-dive on you to figure out whether my issues have any substance to them. I don't know if I'll actually bother.

This sounds like something scum would say.

y, tho?

Idk how to really explain it, but it seems like there wasn't really any reason to say it. Felt more showy to me.

Note the selective responses to my posts. I say their posts have empty lines and no clarity of purpose. They only ask about what I see as hedges and ignore the other parts. I provide examples of what I see as hedges, they do not dispute this, they do not concede, they only answer a different part of my post that had a question in it. The exchange ends here, but they continue to say afterwards they are townreading me.

Ask yourself: Does a townie

ever

do this? Do you, when you are being scumread by someone you townread, not try to convince them otherwise? Maybe if they're an annoying village idiot no one pays attention to. But if that player is an overall popular townread, who you are voting for the position of confirmed town thread leader, do you not try to persuade them of your own towniness? I simply cannot see a town-aligned player responding in this way.

Lastly, the way they played the end of day yesterday sets off alarm bells for me as well.

VOTE: Assassin
I low key feel bad for avenger if he’s town, but this is the way to go

Guys assassin is really townie, I think we should give him the master vote.
Pedit: foreigner doesn’t even want it!

These just don't look like authentic posts from a town player who is trying to persuade others, it looks like someone voting my wagon in a weird way in an attempt to inflame paranoia in people like Berserker and possibly scare people off from voting me. On rereading, Alter Ego said as much at the time. Their whole attitude and demeanor throughout that exciting flurry of end of day activity dose not fit the profile of a townie. Click back and read it for yourself. Compare it with how you felt at the end of that day phase, if you were present. They just seemed overly casual in a way that doesn't look like someone who is really concerned with the outcome of the phase.

[Servant Avenger]

No scumreads yet Alter Ego?

I do think rider, archer want the votes.
Assassin isn’t objecting to them.

This isn't even true, and it's quite ironic too.

Honestly, I just want to king Foreigner whether he likes it or not and call it a day. I don't feel confident enough about anything else. VOTE: Foreigner

I am fine with this vote, but I don't think your sense of urgency reads natural.

Saber, can you go more into your Caster TR? I get why you unvoted Alter Ego if they said they don't want the Master (I'm reading piecemeal) .
I really don't agree with using the master vote to sort what sounds like only gutreads.

FGO: MafTigers in the Lostbelt.

Okay, but I still don't see how you have any confidence in a read like that. Using this as a cop or a confirmation just seems like a bad idea.
But I do have a townlean on Caster.

VOTE: Caster

Are you watching me when I'm sleeping? I don't know why this keeps happening to me.

Honestly, I just want to king Foreigner whether he likes it or not and call it a day. I don't feel confident enough about anything else. VOTE: Foreigner

I am fine with this vote, but I don't think your sense of urgency reads natural.

I don't have any objections to that actually, I don't know why I phrased it like we have to decide now. Maybe something to do with seeing a VC.

I liked Caster's immediate response to Archer here. I think scum (I def do it) like to double-down on their positions when called out on sounding unnatural like this, but Caster just looked at the post and went "huh, you're right".

@caster, why does lancer’s defense, coming from himself, weaken the argument? It’s a rule of thumb that bias means an untrue result, but this is short hand for evaluating a statement and seeing whether it is true or not. It has nothing to do with who said it, merely what they said.

I mean, there's nothing really to his objection other than "nuh uh." If he wants to be more substantive about it that would help, but at present it just looks like omgus.

I started quoting to explain why I TRed you and then remembered this interaction, so. Great. Are you really going to do the thing Assassin is doing and just totally ignore the parts of my posts that don't fit? I said it was weird that Assassin is only focusing on that one read and hasn't engaged me or engaged about me with anything else. But no, you totally shut me down and call it OMGUS. I guess I can't see it from outside my own POV but Assassin's questioning didn't even try to follow what I was saying, and then concluded with "Lancer didn't know how to explain the read" when I clearly already had as much as it was

possible

to explain a read from that early.

Well I say I'm lazy. My notes PT is currently 11 pages long and I actually probably could string together all the posts I've made about him there and paste it as a case. But I'm not going to.

So you just hate the town and want us to lose? Ok

Brb gonna start deliberately being scummy to trick the town into optimal play

Anyways, I liked this series of posts too but idk. Avenger's response to the Assassin is the only one that feels like he's actually considering the situation properly.

when i am king you will be first against the wall

Oh goody.

@Avenger - Did you see my post to/on Caster? I felt best about them at the time.
Now I think Assassin probably

is

town because things just clicked in my head that i can't go into because "spirit of the game".

out of assassin, avenger, and caster i'd still like assassin
avenger inspires confidence, but caster does not

3 hours to deadline, I suck. Caster having votes is exciting but it also means I'm now partially responsible for his ascension if it goes through instead of being able to lazily dodge having an impact.
Avenger, are you scumreading Caster or just not townreading?

@Saber,
1. That's pretty untrue. His opinions can be counted on one hand. I think part of his appeal is because he doesn't have enough in regards to opinion or reads, both Assassin and I have put down scum reads on stronger players than shielder, which makes people invested in seeing both of us lose from either alignment. That alone should be pretty obvious.

But you still townread Caster? Why?

Lancer seems to be getting needlessly agitated by things I wouldn't expect a townie to get agitated about (see the response to my desire for Master Caster as one example).

I don't remember this interaction, but I TR Caster so I don't know why I'd be upset by that. Can you quote it when you get the chance?

I guess indignance is more accurately applied to Shielder's other posts. I just find it a pretty towny sentiment and maybe I'm also being contrarian because I don't like the reasons for scumreading Shielder that I've seen. Caster's posting in particular is part of what shook my TR of them, and now that I go to look they basically went from "I don't like shielder but I see how they're in this position" to "lol this slot's scum" with a lot of confidence but no explanation or process.

Why do you townread me?
@Archer

Lancer kind of has a reason.
Archer does not.

[Servant Assassin]

So, yes. Archer is my preferred first elimination for the phase. It is a bit cruel that I have to hand down a verdict from on high so quickly, but I don't expect this to be a controversial choice, and I think there is very little that Archer could have said today that would change my mind. If you are town, Archer, I am terribly sorry for you being put in this unfair situation and will have to spend a lot more time putting consideration into my next elimination. My solve is more or less hinging on an Archer red flip, though.

[Servant Avenger]

Okay. Should I send this in.
Do we have any objections or last minute berserkering to crash this wedding?

[Servant Assassin]

I missed it if people have talked about it, but are the reasons that people other than Shielder have given for why Caster is a scum read?

Berserker went into it a bit in her defense of Shielder in 1231

It's amusing that the only person with a town read on Archer is being scum-read by Archer.

Oh, I find it very amusing as well. Take as an example these posts from the end of the master I was talking about:

out of assassin, avenger, and caster i'd still like assassin
avenger inspires confidence, but caster does not

I would rather vote you than Caster, but Assassin is still my first pick for master. I wonder why his wagon seems to have cooled off.

I'm townreading foreigner too.
Avenger and caster are lower than them, and I only voted avenger because he seems like a better leader. I would still prefer to vote Assassin, but since it doesn't seem likely, I'm just going to reread their isos real quick.

Do these read like the words of someone whose scum read was potentially about to win the master vote? (Caster made it to M-2, if you'll recall). No, they are loose, relaxed, unconcerned. There is not a hint of Berserkerishness to them. The most words they can muster against Caster is that they do not "inspire confidence". I do not know how this progresses to a GTH scum read. A town player who is suspect of one of the leading master wagons would be much, much more vocal. So that's one more point in the pile of them against Archer.

[Servant Assassin]

Okay. Should I send this in.
Do we have any objections or last minute berserkering to crash this wedding?

Who knows, maybe Caster wants to weigh in as the lone contrarian read.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I've been looking at and thinking about players I think could move above my line of lynchability today, trying on the idea that they might be town.

Archer isn't one of them.

The only positive thing I found about his progression through the final day of the master vote was that while Berserker was furiously working to stop your wagon going through, Archer was pushing the opposite direction. The push didn't have a lot of substance, but it was there. And that put him in direct conflict with a forceful player I townread. That seemed a little non-self-preservationist. But, scum-Archer would know you would flip town and maybe expect a little towncred?

I'm really curious why your wagon didn't get more pushback, even in the event all 3 viable wagons were town wagons.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I used that word again. :/

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Are you interested in sharing thoughts about Ruler?

Not really.

I spent like an hour and a page of my PT mulling over his ISO today.

The overall conclusion I reached was there are a bunch of what I'd consider town indicators but if even I ignore those, I still see nothing he's done yet as more likely to come from scum than town. That's why I was interested in anyone actually scum-reading him as opposed to a 'gun to head' read.

I'm probably not going to talk about the specifics here unless he actually gets run up.

[Servant Avenger]

I've already explained my opinion on assassin. They preferred him to me. He's doing well though.

[Servant Avenger]

Do you have specifics on archer? @Moon.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

TBH, I haven't thought about Archer since I wrote him off as scum some time in the master phase. Though that's partially because he became a lot less active.

[Servant Avenger]

Well, now's a good time to reiso him.

I see a few things that might make him scum. But I'm not a particularly accurate player.

[Servant Avenger]

@Archer answer my question and give me a reads list if you would with reasons this time. If you want to stay in the game, you're going to have to show something beyond just adding in a little scum hunting at the end of every long post.

[Servant Lancer]

Actually, let me rephrase that.

@Lancer, @Beast, you're the only two who haven't claimed whether or not they had it.

Did either of you not have the ability to upgrade other players?

I have it.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Do you have specifics on archer? @Moon.

My thoughts on any given player can get... incredibly specific, by the way. Like I've probably somewhere between 200-300 words across a series of posts on #68.

If notes PTs get released, I'd suggest not reading mine. Messy would be an understatement. I'm doing people a favour by not letting most of it spill into the game thread.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Are you interested in sharing thoughts about Ruler?

Not really.

I spent like an hour and a page of my PT mulling over his ISO today.

The overall conclusion I reached was there are a bunch of what I'd consider town indicators but if even I ignore those, I still see nothing he's done yet as more likely to come from scum than town. That's why I was interested in anyone actually scum-reading him as opposed to a 'gun to head' read.

I'm probably not going to talk about the specifics here unless he actually gets run up.

There was one thing that stood out to me, though they did explain it after the fact. They switched their vote to Caster before the running around with hair on fire part of the the wagon-building began. The only time they'd mentioned Caster before that was to say Caster was one of the players they did not want to give the master ability to. There was nothing in their iso to indicate that their opinion of Caster had changed. A few posts later they gave some reasoning, and then amended that reasoning in their first post of Day 1.

[Servant Assassin]

Do you have specifics on archer? @Moon.

My thoughts on any given player can get... incredibly specific, by the way. Like I've probably somewhere between 200-300 words across a series of posts on #68.

If notes PTs get released, I'd suggest not reading mine. Messy would be an understatement. I'm doing people a favour by not letting most of it spill into the game thread.

When you talk about it that way, you know it's just going to make people want to read it more, right?

[Servant Avenger]

It doesn't particularly make me want to read it more.
There should be core reasons why you think someone is scum that weigh more heavily than others.
Sharing those would help me read you and help me understand why you wrote off archer as scum so early.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I sincerely doubt anything I share would help you read me if you're still having difficulty figuring me out.

(Plus I don't actually care about helping you read me.)

[Servant Avenger]

So you won't share your core reasons for scum reading archer?

[Servant Avenger]

This is kinda what I mean, when I think you're lying about stuff.
The first thing I thought was that you weren't going to share your reads, but you made it come off like it was a favor to the town respectively that you didn't when it appears that in fact you really just don't want to and it's to benefit yourself primarily.
It's not that I have an issue with selfishness, but it is misleading.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

*shrug*

Whether or not you town read me or believe things I'm saying is very low on the list of things I care about.

And you're conflating two entirely separate things.

[Servant Avenger]

I assume the two things I'm conflating are lying and misleading?