To me, it came out of the blue with xero explanation, would like to know what Italiano saw that put his vote there.
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:40 pm
by ItalianoVD
My questions were reaction questions. I wanted to see the reaction when throwing out assumptive questions.
@callforjudgment: Even though I said it’s possible that you are town given the potential theory found, it doesn’t mean I actually townread you. You are a paradox because I seem to scumread you and townread you at the same time and it’s weird.
You “defending” Frogster is not making me think better about you, in fact it’s having the opposite effect. Frog alluded to this already.
Here’s a theory of mine. If Frogster was alluding to there being 4 scum because he is a part of the team, he would actually know this information to be true.
And if the scumteam’s plan was for Frog to be responsible for 2 scum deaths (the ultimate towncred) because they know the last partner is distanced enough or townread enough to not be looked at. And given the fact that you, Raya, Gamma, Looker are being scumread etc. there are multiple places the scumteam can go that the town won’t question.
Is this a reach? Probably so. I know that the simplest answer is usually the right one: cfj & Raya are the last scum. Vote them off and the game is over, but these are the thoughts going on in my head. Having a confirmed scumflip is also playing into these thoughts.
If shelly flipped green then it wouldn’t be an issue.
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:58 pm
by callforjudgement
I'm not defending Frogster to get towncred on myself. In fact, I knew when I made the post that I might get scumread for it. I don't care, though; this looks like the sort of game that will get solved by PoE, and being able to remove one player from the PoE will be helpful for that, even if they are being worse than useless at the moment.
I don't believe Frogster (or anyone else) is capable of faking Frogster's play this game when scum. That sort of violent self-destructive tunnelling is just not something someone can do without truly believing in it. (I appreciate that this argument is more convincing to me than it is to other people, because a hypothetical scum!Frogster could truly believe that a hypothetical scum!me is scum. But if you have an argument that needs me to be scum to be correct, it makes more sense to focus on me first.)
I think it's very unlikely that this setup is 9:4. (This is partially due to reviewer meta. Talking only about completed games only because I don't know the setup of ongoing games and can't talk about them anyway, the last time mastina reviewed a 9:4, there was a lot of discussion in the review thread about whether the game could be Normal; this ended up dominating discussion, and mastina accidentally entirely forgot to do a balance review. The game turned out to be very scumsided (it would have been scumsided even as a 10:3), mastina got called out on it in the Normal Review Group forums, and apologised. Given what happened last time, I think that it's basically impossible that she makes such a mistake again, and it's almost impossible to cram enough roles into a 9:4 with a normal day/night cycle to balance it,
especially
if you're letting the scum multitask by default). Incidentally, in the very unlikely situation that the setup
is
9:4, this almost guarantees that Walter is scum because otherwise it would have been almost trivially easy for scum to redirect the day 1 deadline wagon without looking overly suspicious.
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:00 pm
by ItalianoVD
What I’ve gathered from the ISO content is there is a pretty significant difference between
mentioning
banana/shelly and
interacting
with banana/shelly. I feel as though townies would want to sort the slot (if they didn’t townread a slot) so you’d probably see more back and forth interactions from townie players.
To me, “mentioning” that you strongly scumread a slot, but not saying why or not interacting with that slot to sort it out, etc. can be nai, but I’m not sure if it’s likely.
Frogster’s 527 seems like the historical “compliment strong player so strong player can view you as town.”
808816818854 are reiterations of making people know he scumreads the banana/shelly slot. Sort of an allusion to towncred for Day 2 imo.
Mentions Raya in 527 when asking RCEnigma what he felt about Raya’s cfj vote. Mentions Raya in 662 mentioning his somewhat kinda scumread on her. This was still day 1 so it could be that if the shelly wagon didn’t work and the Raya one does, he can still say he scumread someone.
A theory that Taylor said in 939 has stuck with me where she says the possibility of Frogster being scum is because he got caught on the shelly wagon not thinking it would gain momentum the way it did. By the time it did, there was no way he could jump off (if his goal was not to bus) and not receive attention for it.
In post 1275, ItalianoVD wrote:Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:
UNVOTE: callforjudgment
Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.
There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:
~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all
Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)
I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.
Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.
I've also been getting that feeling from cfj in general too. Maybe a bit biased but why defend me and start a counter wagon when I'd be an easy miselim and not many questions would be asked. He even kinda set it up by saying he was worried about me trying to buddy him. Doesn't make much sense as scum.
"...why defend me and start a counter wagon when I'd be an easy miselim and not many questions would be asked."
To drag out the conflict as a distraction while he phishes for
every
pr, then pocket you (in case someone else is lynched) or collect town cred for "defending" you in case you do get lynched.
I guess that's possible but it doesn't really feel like that
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:25 pm
by Raya36
In post 1366, ItalianoVD wrote:@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?
I feel like from my perspective I usually come across quite townie when I actually try as town. I wish I could give this game that effort right now. As scum I tend to be pretty obvious, I come across as unnatural and it's easy to see through my plans. Of course scum always feel like their scummy so maybe I'm not as bad at scum as I think?
I don't remember saying I was okay with sacrificing Shelly but there was a lot of suspicion on that slot so even if I read it as town I'd have been fine with the elimination. I did consistently read her as scummy-appearing town. It's still interesting how easy that elimination went through when there wasn't much of a push.
Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.
Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.
Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.
I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:35 pm
by WaltertheDunce10
In post 1408, Frogsterking wrote:Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.
Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.
Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.
I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.
I agree.
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:00 pm
by Frogsterking
I believe Raya has maybe played with some other players here before?
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:52 pm
by geraintm
In post 1410, Frogsterking wrote:I believe Raya has maybe played with some other players here before?
Popping in quickly as I read in another game a bunch of dudes just vigged a nice old lady and want to rush the vote along, but don't think ive ever played with raya before.
I'm kinda stricken by how thr rcenigma wagon hasnt just gone away. Like, I dont think people are strongly reading them as scummy. I wanted to lynch them at the time, I havent yet worked out who id like to lynch more, but unsure why others are so sticky.
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:41 am
by Raya36
In post 1408, Frogsterking wrote:Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.
Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.
Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.
I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.
I don't feel like I'm guarding my thoughts and feelings? If there's anything you'd like to know I'm happy to answer
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:42 am
by Raya36
In post 1410, Frogsterking wrote:I believe Raya has maybe played with some other players here before?
Yes I've played with a few people on the list before
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:37 am
by GeorgeBailey
RCEnigma has been prodded
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:01 am
by geraintm
Going to be blunt here.
There doesn't seem to be any wagons developing. We have 2. Enigma on 3 and raya on 4. Raya, if you don't want to get lynched this round I feel you are going to have to step it up somehow because othwrwise we are likely just going to end up voting you out.
If anyone else feels different to my general viewpoint, then say.
This is irrespective of my view on you btw
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:09 am
by Looker
V A N I T Y W A G O N S
Also, what's the likelihood that RCEnigma and Raya36 are
In post 1410, Frogsterking wrote:I believe Raya has maybe played with some other players here before?
Popping in quickly as I read in another game a bunch of dudes just vigged a nice old lady and want to rush the vote along, but don't think ive ever played with raya before.
I'm kinda stricken by how thr rcenigma wagon hasnt just gone away. Like, I dont think people are strongly reading them as scummy. I wanted to lynch them at the time, I havent yet worked out who id like to lynch more, but unsure why others are so sticky.
Why would you assume your reasoning is different from everyone else's? How willing would you be to eliminate Raya
I'm starting to think it's all a lie too. Although most likely a lie coming from town.
Well then, can you clarify?
You said RCE was scum for PR fishing, but said Walter was probably scum for weak pushes and saying that fakeclaims were PR fishing.
Those were two different situations though. I didn't think what Walter was pushing at the time was PR fishing and his pushed were weak. This is a completely difference instant.
I'm getting things confused. Which post numbers were for which instances?
So this is what Walter was pushing as PR fishing: 397. It was just a joke, not PR pushing at all. And I think it was scummy of Walter to push it as PR fishing.
This is RCE's fakeclaim that I'm scumreading: 192.
In post 1402, callforjudgement wrote:I'm not defending Frogster to get towncred on myself. In fact, I knew when I made the post that I might get scumread for it. I don't care, though; this looks like the sort of game that will get solved by PoE, and being able to remove one player from the PoE will be helpful for that, even if they are being worse than useless at the moment.
I don't believe Frogster (or anyone else) is capable of faking Frogster's play this game when scum. That sort of violent self-destructive tunnelling is just not something someone can do without truly believing in it. (I appreciate that this argument is more convincing to me than it is to other people, because a hypothetical scum!Frogster could truly believe that a hypothetical scum!me is scum. But if you have an argument that needs me to be scum to be correct, it makes more sense to focus on me first.)
I think it's very unlikely that this setup is 9:4. (This is partially due to reviewer meta. Talking only about completed games only because I don't know the setup of ongoing games and can't talk about them anyway, the last time mastina reviewed a 9:4, there was a lot of discussion in the review thread about whether the game could be Normal; this ended up dominating discussion, and mastina accidentally entirely forgot to do a balance review. The game turned out to be very scumsided (it would have been scumsided even as a 10:3), mastina got called out on it in the Normal Review Group forums, and apologised. Given what happened last time, I think that it's basically impossible that she makes such a mistake again, and it's almost impossible to cram enough roles into a 9:4 with a normal day/night cycle to balance it,
especially
if you're letting the scum multitask by default). Incidentally, in the very unlikely situation that the setup
is
9:4, this almost guarantees that Walter is scum because otherwise it would have been almost trivially easy for scum to redirect the day 1 deadline wagon without looking overly suspicious.
The last 9-4 I was in had a like 8 person neighborhood, a traitor, a cop, an IC, a babysitter, and an informed goon. Scum won easily and that was with elimming traitor day 1.