Mini Normal 2185 | EFoBBBiO | Game Over!

[Frogsterking]

You skipped providing any notes on both Galron and Luca.

[ejjinami]

VOTE: Bugs

This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with them

besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists),

I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to

and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere

This is exactly why I'm voting Bugs, and this is exactly what I found. By default traitor and scum do not know each other, and Momrangel's Informed made me think that she knew the identity of a traitor (provided one exists) but the traitor did not know the identity of their scum mates. I combed through D1 looking for moments where Momrangel could be signaling to her traitor and I think I found something. I found even more tells that looked like a scum!Bugs also trying to signal to Lunar. Of course there's a chance it's all in my imagination, that's why I'm curious to get other's input. I really don't have any other leads because I'm townreading most slots so if my new theory is incorrect then the scum are playing very well and/or I got pocketed and/or completely overlooked something.

With this idea it explains why Lunar seems so sincere at some moments, because they're actually unsure of their partners so they are not playing with TMI.

Imagine you queued up for this game and then found out you were the traitor, a role you were completely unfamiliar with, then look at Lunar's D1 again.

By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*

I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.

I know... and you were scum-reading my slot pretty darn hard

honestly, I was expecting you to just vote me and ignore my scum-read just because your previous read lmao...... but oh well
I might have demonized you a bit too much

I’m working on my notes rn

btw, do you want me to fill the OCEAN test as well?

You replaced into NPOMs slot? I haven't sr NPOM since 3/4 into D1. I guess it was unclear since I lumped him in with the Town Block in my reads list.

If you don't mind then it would be nice, along with the other questions.

http://www.personal.psu.edu/~j5j/IPIP/

This is the best free version I've found so far. There's a "short" version and a long version, whichever you want to put the time into, they're both pretty long.

eh, maybe I should wait a bit to have you read my stuff without being biased but nope... I replaced Trendall
the slot you hated and the one who hated(?) you

I admit that my town-read on lunar doesn’t include the possibility of a traitor. Pretty much all of it is based on his solving looking really damn genuine + him choosing not to focus on getting town-read despite being perfectly able to do that... but as traitor half of that will have to be thrown away
(I’m working on making that one readable rn)

but regardless of all of that, he’s definitely not someone I’d want to lynch anytime soon. This theory can only be correct if bug is scum and that can only happen IF I’m wrong on luca
and boy oh boy, Luca was acting as the textbook wallposter scum since the beginning of D1... Normal on the outside, seemingly cares a lot, writes long “objectively townie” reads but is completely dead emotionally and apathetic when it really comes to lynch people near EoD.
If I’m wrong, sorry.. but JEEEZ, there were SO many scummy coincidences

[ejjinami]

You skipped providing any notes on both Galron and Luca.

I’ll skip my read on galron completely because I don’t think it’s necessary

and I’m still working on the rest. I have a list of notes I made during the night but they’re not anything people could read
They’re mainly made out of my brain shortcuts and 1-word/1-sentence comments

I’ll eventually post all of them but it’ll take some time

[Gamma Emerald]

Grendel has been killed last night! He was a:

Spoiler:

town traffic analyst

hahahahhahahah
his bait worked?

I wasn’t expecting that

good job man!

welp, that changes my suspicions a bit

curious what you mean by his bait

what’s a traffic analyst btw?

it checks if someone has a current way to communicate with another player. I say current because it gets the same result for people who have no way to communicate at all and those who have a channel to communicate in but no one else alive in there with them (so it would fail on the last living group scum, or a traitor, unless some other element gave them a channel with another alive player)

I believe that the traffic analyst can see whether or not someone is in a hood.

I have a new theory by the way, I think Lunar Martian might be a traitor and Momrangel's Informed ability was that she was aware of their identity. I found some comments between Momrangel and Bugs that looked like they were trying to indicate to Lunar their alignment.

That seems like an odd thing to be informed of. I think that would make more sense if the traitor was within the hood at the outset, which I'm not sure I believe is the case.

Townie

[galron]
[frogster, lunar]
[NoPowerOverMe]
[OWE, bug*, gamma]
[Luca]

scummy

*=only there if luca flips town. 1000% town if luca flips scum

frogster

- Had a very genuine start. Asking for OCEAN results is NAI in itself but getting so agitated and trying to read people based on it for sooo long strongly hints to him genuinely wanting to try his theory out.

Experimenting with reads as town just simply makes sense. Pseudo-science or not, it doesn’t really matter. The motive behind it is pretty clear.
On the other hand, if he’s scum, I wouldn’t expect him to be THAT set on getting results. He would have to lie about his reads and would have to fake the results of his experiment (in a bad way) so no matter what he would have learned absolutely nothing from scum-reading anyone this way.

He lies about his reads = people think his way of reading is bad
Scum-reads townies using this method = people think his way of reading is bad
+he personally gets nothing out of it
...his posts (and emotions in them) just don’t seem to come from someone who knows that he’s doing a bad thing

The only thing that’s putting me off is him scum-reading pretty much only the low-posters (easy mis-lynches) + a lot of people I town-read... but tbh that’s still not enough to change my read there. 90(?)% inno

Gamma

- mindmelding a lot at the beginning of the game. Asking right questions at the right time. It’s easily fakeable but still likely good. There was literally nothing I’d like to call AI later on tho... In the PoE they go
I’d like to mention here that gamma would have known that galron claimed cop, not grendal... So I doubt they would have made that kill if they were scum

NoPowerOverMe

- Likely town because of the wagon on him D1.
Some people STRONGLY wanted him dead while some STRONGLY insisted that he’s town... Call me stupid, but in general I rarely see scum buddy each other THAT hard since the very beginning of D1
(people scum-read NPOM for pretty much anything and those who defended him just straight out said that “the wagon is disgusting”...)
Scum defending their teammate DESPITE a lot of townies pushing? - I don’t see it. That’s not how SvS defense should look like imo. If it were SvS I’d expect sth more reasonable that doesn’t place as many suspicions on the defenders after a flip.
High chances are that NPOM was just town and scum were spread between the attackers and defenders (they strongly pushed him because it was a decent mis-lynch and some white-knighted because they knew that this would give them town-creed)
NPOM can only be scum if he was bussed back then.
#619 agree about lucas. GOOD post

What are your tiers representative of in this post, and what is the dividing factor for them? I feel like some of your reads don't match the tier each person is in if the tiers are just that of a general read list.

VOTE: Bugs

This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with them
besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists), I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to

and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere

tbh Frogster does have a decent mindset when it comes to who to vote when there's that sort of associative (by which I mean he's voting the active element of that association, or the whose posting most suggests the associative). As for drawing the conclusions pre-flip, I think it's fine to do so, but getting overly confident in it could maybe spell disaster.
Additional note, traitor doesn't normally have the ability to talk with their teammates in a secure channel. That's why I think if there's a traitor

and

momrangal's information was their exact identity, they would be one of the people who started out inside the neighborhood. That way, after all the townies in the hood die off, the traitor and (presuming bugspray is scum backup neighbor) backup neighbor on scum's side can conspire and plan quickhammers and other stuff.

This is exactly why I'm voting Bugs, and this is exactly what I found. By default traitor and scum do not know each other, and Momrangel's Informed made me think that she knew the identity of a traitor (provided one exists) but the traitor did not know the identity of their scum mates. I combed through D1 looking for moments where Momrangel could be signaling to her traitor and I think I found something. I found even more tells that looked like a scum!Bugs also trying to signal to Lunar. Of course there's a chance it's all in my imagination, that's why I'm curious to get other's input. I really don't have any other leads because I'm townreading most slots so if my new theory is incorrect then the scum are playing very well and/or I got pocketed and/or completely overlooked something.

With this idea it explains why Lunar seems so sincere at some moments, because they're actually unsure of their partners so they are not playing with TMI.

Imagine you queued up for this game and then found out you were the traitor, a role you were completely unfamiliar with, then look at Lunar's D1 again.

Traitors are (or I think should be) told their scum partners from the start in Normal games. So I think you should factor that into your theory.

[ejjinami]

wait, Grendel was the one who posted the red check???????????
crap........
I mistook grendel for galron
I was dead certain that galron was the real cop and grendel was killed because he wanted to provide cop cover (my making mafia mistake their nicknames at EoD) xd
nvm, I’m just dumb

[ejjinami]

Grendel has been killed last night! He was a:

Spoiler:

town traffic analyst

hahahahhahahah
his bait worked?

I wasn’t expecting that

good job man!

welp, that changes my suspicions a bit

curious what you mean by his bait

I thought galron was the cop lmao
and then suddenly near EoD Grendel started saying that “he’ll surely die because he found scum”
and he repeated it a few times as if he wanted to remind the mafia of it
so I thought it was a really adorable way of baiting the night kill...

[ejjinami]

previously I thought conf town =[galron]
nearly lock town =[frogster, lunar]
townie =[NoPowerOverMe]
null PoE =[OWE, bug*, gamma]
scummy =[Luca]


*=only there if luca flips town. 1000% town if luca flips scum

What are your tiers representative of in this post, and what is the dividing factor for them? I feel like some of your reads don't match the tier each person is in if the tiers are just that of a general read list.

edited

[bugspray]

VOTE: ejjinami

[Frogsterking]

I thought about the hood thing and I thought it could be a mix-up on the tradition. I dont that necessarily invalidates the idea.

If traitor is usually informed of their scum team though then my theory probably doesn't hold up. Is that always the case?

I might post what I found anyway in case a discussion needs sparking.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: ejjinami

This is a great silent vote and I was tempted to do the same.

[bugspray]

. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

How about you do it now
Also what if you were to perhaps flip LM to clear me instead
Or flip the scummy shirtless cat that replaced trendall who is spewing scum

[bugspray]

Ejji said some wack shit in the hood

[bugspray]

I recently played scum in the are you my partner micro and it was hellish because I replaced in and my opinion is that traitors who don't know their friends also literally isn't mafia because something something informed minority

[ejjinami]

Ejji said some wack shit in the hood

lol, then ask about it
EVERYTHING I said will make perfect sense later on

[ejjinami]

VOTE: ejjinami

This is a great silent vote and I was tempted to do the same.

then don’t just say that and do it
I was expecting you to want to lynch me since the very start, especially since I ended up heavily town-reading most of the people you’re scum-reading

[Frogsterking]

Ejji said some wack shit in the hood

Ejji said some wack shit outside the hood too. Would you rather collaborate with Ejji to see where it's going or spill the beans on what they said? I don't mind either way because I'll be following up later.

VOTE: Bugs

This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with them

besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists),

I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to

and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere

This is exactly why I'm voting Bugs, and this is exactly what I found. By default traitor and scum do not know each other, and Momrangel's Informed made me think that she knew the identity of a traitor (provided one exists) but the traitor did not know the identity of their scum mates. I combed through D1 looking for moments where Momrangel could be signaling to her traitor and I think I found something. I found even more tells that looked like a scum!Bugs also trying to signal to Lunar. Of course there's a chance it's all in my imagination, that's why I'm curious to get other's input. I really don't have any other leads because I'm townreading most slots so if my new theory is incorrect then the scum are playing very well and/or I got pocketed and/or completely overlooked something.

With this idea it explains why Lunar seems so sincere at some moments, because they're actually unsure of their partners so they are not playing with TMI.

Imagine you queued up for this game and then found out you were the traitor, a role you were completely unfamiliar with, then look at Lunar's D1 again.

By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*

I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.

I know... and you were scum-reading my slot pretty darn hard

honestly, I was expecting you to just vote me and ignore my scum-read just because your previous read lmao...... but oh well
I might have demonized you a bit too much

I’m working on my notes rn

btw, do you want me to fill the OCEAN test as well?

You replaced into NPOMs slot? I haven't sr NPOM since 3/4 into D1. I guess it was unclear since I lumped him in with the Town Block in my reads list.

If you don't mind then it would be nice, along with the other questions.

http://www.personal.psu.edu/~j5j/IPIP/

This is the best free version I've found so far. There's a "short" version and a long version, whichever you want to put the time into, they're both pretty long.

eh, maybe I should wait a bit to have you read my stuff without being biased but nope... I replaced Trendall
the slot you hated and the one who hated(?) you

I admit that my town-read on lunar doesn’t include the possibility of a traitor. Pretty much all of it is based on his solving looking really damn genuine + him choosing not to focus on getting town-read despite being perfectly able to do that... but as traitor half of that will have to be thrown away
(I’m working on making that one readable rn)

but regardless of all of that, he’s definitely not someone I’d want to lynch anytime soon. This theory can only be correct if bug is scum and that can only happen IF I’m wrong on luca

and boy oh boy, Luca was acting as the textbook wallposter scum since the beginning of D1... Normal on the outside, seemingly cares a lot, writes long “objectively townie” reads but is completely dead emotionally and apathetic when it really comes to lynch people near EoD.
If I’m wrong, sorry.. but JEEEZ, there were SO many scummy coincidences

Can you elaborate? The word you used to describe my tone earlier, "agitated", is extremely accurate, and you're making me agitated now.

[bugspray]

also whoever the fuck insinuated that there's a traitor who doesn't know who the buddies are that's ridiculous i just played bingle's one micro as a scum who didn't know who my partner is with secret alts and it was hellish in a few ways even though I was instantly able to identify my partner so unless you think georgebailey is completely incompetent at intelligent setup design that isn't even worth considering and also probably woldn't pass normal review because it's not mafia due to something something informed minority so occam's razor just says that's...

Spoiler: BULLSHIT

[ejjinami]

about the hood, I had a spicy guess about the role list, which was based on me mistaking galron for grendal + one of bug’s posts in there
I won’t be able to explain it without claiming so please just don’t ask me about that.

The word you used to describe my tone earlier, "agitated", is extremely accurate, and you're making me agitated now.

I’m aware.
it’s 1am rn so I can’t guarantee I’ll go through and post all of my reads today but if not today, I’ll just post them tomorrow

besides, I’m aware that this will probably just annoy you more but try to take emotions out of FM. You seem to have a tendency to tunnel and honestly, I’d be REALLY surprised if your reads or general PoE are correct rn.
Submerging yourself in emotions while playing will make you omit things you could have otherwise read + probably be more confident in your opinions than you normally should
Trust me, I’ve experienced it myself

This is not advice from me as a player, this is advice from me as a person. Even if it’s not now, this tendency will end up hurting you sooner or later.

[Gamma Emerald]

I thought about the hood thing and I thought it could be a mix-up on the tradition. I dont that necessarily invalidates the idea.

If traitor is usually informed of their scum team though then my theory probably doesn't hold up. Is that always the case?

I might post what I found anyway in case a discussion needs sparking.

Yeah I'm pretty sure traitors being informed of their team in Normals is a hard rule.
also ejjinami's weird thought process on the claim situation is hard to make sense of, but I feel like it's a mite towny rn.

[ejjinami]

also whoever the fuck insinuated that there's a traitor who doesn't know who the buddies are that's ridiculous i just played bingle's one micro as a scum who didn't know who my partner is with secret alts and it was hellish in a few ways even though I was instantly able to identify my partner so unless you think georgebailey is completely incompetent at intelligent setup design that isn't even worth considering and also probably woldn't pass normal review because it's not mafia due to something something informed minority so occam's razor just says that's...

Spoiler: BULLSHIT

bug, the fact that you were able to guess the traitor in 1 game doesn’t mean that it applies to all games
the fact that townies can insta-win and find scum easily doesn’t mean that it has to happed every time
not all people can be read easily so that’s already a bad generalization

besides, reading people via interactions (buddying, defending scum) works the same with traitors as normal mafia
so even if there is one, it’s not like it matters. Chill

[Gamma Emerald]

about the hood, I had a spicy guess about the role list, which was based on me mistaking galron for grendal + one of bug’s posts in there

yeah on this, do you still feel like bugspray is "your counterpart" or whatever you called him in there?

[ejjinami]

about the hood, I had a spicy guess about the role list, which was based on me mistaking galron for grendal + one of bug’s posts in there

yeah on this, do you still feel like bugspray is "your counterpart" or whatever you called him in there?

depends on the setup.
Possibly but it doesn’t look as beautifully perfected as it could have

[Lunar Martian]

You skipped providing any notes on both Galron and Luca.

And me I think.

[bugspray]

bug, the fact that you were able to guess the traitor in 1 game doesn’t mean that it applies to all games

that has nothing to do with my argument
iic i said it was hellish DEPSITE finding my partmner

[bugspray]

the cat muscle dude says his role is a counterpart to mine and i have no fucking clue what that's even supposed to mean