Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:30 pm
You skipped providing any notes on both Galron and Luca.
eh, maybe I should wait a bit to have you read my stuff without being biased but nope... I replaced TrendallFrogsterking wrote:This is exactly why I'm voting Bugs, and this is exactly what I found. By default traitor and scum do not know each other, and Momrangel's Informed made me think that she knew the identity of a traitor (provided one exists) but the traitor did not know the identity of their scum mates. I combed through D1 looking for moments where Momrangel could be signaling to her traitor and I think I found something. I found even more tells that looked like a scum!Bugs also trying to signal to Lunar. Of course there's a chance it's all in my imagination, that's why I'm curious to get other's input. I really don't have any other leads because I'm townreading most slots so if my new theory is incorrect then the scum are playing very well and/or I got pocketed and/or completely overlooked something.In post 1397, ejjinami wrote:In post 1393, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Bugs
This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with them
besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists),I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to
and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere
With this idea it explains why Lunar seems so sincere at some moments, because they're actually unsure of their partners so they are not playing with TMI.
Imagine you queued up for this game and then found out you were the traitor, a role you were completely unfamiliar with, then look at Lunar's D1 again.
You replaced into NPOMs slot? I haven't sr NPOM since 3/4 into D1. I guess it was unclear since I lumped him in with the Town Block in my reads list.In post 1394, ejjinami wrote:I know... and you were scum-reading my slot pretty darn hardIn post 1392, Frogsterking wrote:By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*
I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.
honestly, I was expecting you to just vote me and ignore my scum-read just because your previous read lmao...... but oh well
I might have demonized you a bit too much
I’m working on my notes rn
btw, do you want me to fill the OCEAN test as well?
If you don't mind then it would be nice, along with the other questions.
http://www.personal.psu.edu/~j5j/IPIP/
This is the best free version I've found so far. There's a "short" version and a long version, whichever you want to put the time into, they're both pretty long.
I’ll skip my read on galron completely because I don’t think it’s necessaryIn post 1400, Frogsterking wrote:You skipped providing any notes on both Galron and Luca.
curious what you mean by his baitIn post 1388, ejjinami wrote:hahahahhahahah
his bait worked?
I wasn’t expecting that
good job man!
welp, that changes my suspicions a bit
it checks if someone has a current way to communicate with another player. I say current because it gets the same result for people who have no way to communicate at all and those who have a channel to communicate in but no one else alive in there with them (so it would fail on the last living group scum, or a traitor, unless some other element gave them a channel with another alive player)In post 1389, ejjinami wrote:what’s a traffic analyst btw?
That seems like an odd thing to be informed of. I think that would make more sense if the traitor was within the hood at the outset, which I'm not sure I believe is the case.In post 1391, Frogsterking wrote:I believe that the traffic analyst can see whether or not someone is in a hood.
I have a new theory by the way, I think Lunar Martian might be a traitor and Momrangel's Informed ability was that she was aware of their identity. I found some comments between Momrangel and Bugs that looked like they were trying to indicate to Lunar their alignment.
What are your tiers representative of in this post, and what is the dividing factor for them? I feel like some of your reads don't match the tier each person is in if the tiers are just that of a general read list.In post 1395, ejjinami wrote:Townie
[galron]
[frogster, lunar]
[NoPowerOverMe]
[OWE, bug*, gamma]
[Luca]
scummy
*=only there if luca flips town. 1000% town if luca flips scum
frogster- Had a very genuine start. Asking for OCEAN results is NAI in itself but getting so agitated and trying to read people based on it for sooo long strongly hints to him genuinely wanting to try his theory out.
Experimenting with reads as town just simply makes sense. Pseudo-science or not, it doesn’t really matter. The motive behind it is pretty clear.
On the other hand, if he’s scum, I wouldn’t expect him to be THAT set on getting results. He would have to lie about his reads and would have to fake the results of his experiment (in a bad way) so no matter what he would have learned absolutely nothing from scum-reading anyone this way.
He lies about his reads = people think his way of reading is bad
Scum-reads townies using this method = people think his way of reading is bad
+he personally gets nothing out of it
...his posts (and emotions in them) just don’t seem to come from someone who knows that he’s doing a bad thing
The only thing that’s putting me off is him scum-reading pretty much only the low-posters (easy mis-lynches) + a lot of people I town-read... but tbh that’s still not enough to change my read there. 90(?)% inno
Gamma- mindmelding a lot at the beginning of the game. Asking right questions at the right time. It’s easily fakeable but still likely good. There was literally nothing I’d like to call AI later on tho... In the PoE they go
I’d like to mention here that gamma would have known that galron claimed cop, not grendal... So I doubt they would have made that kill if they were scum
NoPowerOverMe- Likely town because of the wagon on him D1.
Some people STRONGLY wanted him dead while some STRONGLY insisted that he’s town... Call me stupid, but in general I rarely see scum buddy each other THAT hard since the very beginning of D1
(people scum-read NPOM for pretty much anything and those who defended him just straight out said that “the wagon is disgusting”...)
Scum defending their teammate DESPITE a lot of townies pushing? - I don’t see it. That’s not how SvS defense should look like imo. If it were SvS I’d expect sth more reasonable that doesn’t place as many suspicions on the defenders after a flip.
High chances are that NPOM was just town and scum were spread between the attackers and defenders (they strongly pushed him because it was a decent mis-lynch and some white-knighted because they knew that this would give them town-creed)
NPOM can only be scum if he was bussed back then.
#619 agree about lucas. GOOD post
tbh Frogster does have a decent mindset when it comes to who to vote when there's that sort of associative (by which I mean he's voting the active element of that association, or the whose posting most suggests the associative). As for drawing the conclusions pre-flip, I think it's fine to do so, but getting overly confident in it could maybe spell disaster.In post 1397, ejjinami wrote:you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with themIn post 1393, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Bugs
This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.
besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists), I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to
and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere
Traitors are (or I think should be) told their scum partners from the start in Normal games. So I think you should factor that into your theory.In post 1398, Frogsterking wrote:This is exactly why I'm voting Bugs, and this is exactly what I found. By default traitor and scum do not know each other, and Momrangel's Informed made me think that she knew the identity of a traitor (provided one exists) but the traitor did not know the identity of their scum mates. I combed through D1 looking for moments where Momrangel could be signaling to her traitor and I think I found something. I found even more tells that looked like a scum!Bugs also trying to signal to Lunar. Of course there's a chance it's all in my imagination, that's why I'm curious to get other's input. I really don't have any other leads because I'm townreading most slots so if my new theory is incorrect then the scum are playing very well and/or I got pocketed and/or completely overlooked something.
With this idea it explains why Lunar seems so sincere at some moments, because they're actually unsure of their partners so they are not playing with TMI.
Imagine you queued up for this game and then found out you were the traitor, a role you were completely unfamiliar with, then look at Lunar's D1 again.
I thought galron was the cop lmaoIn post 1403, Gamma Emerald wrote:curious what you mean by his baitIn post 1388, ejjinami wrote:hahahahhahahah
his bait worked?
I wasn’t expecting that
good job man!
welp, that changes my suspicions a bit
editedIn post 1403, Gamma Emerald wrote:What are your tiers representative of in this post, and what is the dividing factor for them? I feel like some of your reads don't match the tier each person is in if the tiers are just that of a general read list.In post 1395, ejjinami wrote: previously I thought conf town =[galron]
nearly lock town =[frogster, lunar]
townie =[NoPowerOverMe]
null PoE =[OWE, bug*, gamma]
scummy =[Luca]
*=only there if luca flips town. 1000% town if luca flips scum
This is a great silent vote and I was tempted to do the same.
How about you do it nowIn post 1393, Frogsterking wrote:. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.
lol, then ask about itIn post 1411, bugspray wrote:Ejji said some wack shit in the hood
then don’t just say that and do it
Ejji said some wack shit outside the hood too. Would you rather collaborate with Ejji to see where it's going or spill the beans on what they said? I don't mind either way because I'll be following up later.bugspray wrote:Ejji said some wack shit in the hood
Can you elaborate? The word you used to describe my tone earlier, "agitated", is extremely accurate, and you're making me agitated now.In post 1401, ejjinami wrote:eh, maybe I should wait a bit to have you read my stuff without being biased but nope... I replaced TrendallFrogsterking wrote:This is exactly why I'm voting Bugs, and this is exactly what I found. By default traitor and scum do not know each other, and Momrangel's Informed made me think that she knew the identity of a traitor (provided one exists) but the traitor did not know the identity of their scum mates. I combed through D1 looking for moments where Momrangel could be signaling to her traitor and I think I found something. I found even more tells that looked like a scum!Bugs also trying to signal to Lunar. Of course there's a chance it's all in my imagination, that's why I'm curious to get other's input. I really don't have any other leads because I'm townreading most slots so if my new theory is incorrect then the scum are playing very well and/or I got pocketed and/or completely overlooked something.In post 1397, ejjinami wrote:In post 1393, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Bugs
This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with them
besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists),I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to
and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere
With this idea it explains why Lunar seems so sincere at some moments, because they're actually unsure of their partners so they are not playing with TMI.
Imagine you queued up for this game and then found out you were the traitor, a role you were completely unfamiliar with, then look at Lunar's D1 again.
You replaced into NPOMs slot? I haven't sr NPOM since 3/4 into D1. I guess it was unclear since I lumped him in with the Town Block in my reads list.In post 1394, ejjinami wrote:I know... and you were scum-reading my slot pretty darn hardIn post 1392, Frogsterking wrote:By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*
I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.
honestly, I was expecting you to just vote me and ignore my scum-read just because your previous read lmao...... but oh well
I might have demonized you a bit too much
I’m working on my notes rn
btw, do you want me to fill the OCEAN test as well?
If you don't mind then it would be nice, along with the other questions.
http://www.personal.psu.edu/~j5j/IPIP/
This is the best free version I've found so far. There's a "short" version and a long version, whichever you want to put the time into, they're both pretty long.
the slot you hated and the one who hated(?) you
I admit that my town-read on lunar doesn’t include the possibility of a traitor. Pretty much all of it is based on his solving looking really damn genuine + him choosing not to focus on getting town-read despite being perfectly able to do that... but as traitor half of that will have to be thrown away
(I’m working on making that one readable rn)
but regardless of all of that, he’s definitely not someone I’d want to lynch anytime soon. This theory can only be correct if bug is scum and that can only happen IF I’m wrong on luca
and boy oh boy, Luca was acting as the textbook wallposter scum since the beginning of D1... Normal on the outside, seemingly cares a lot, writes long “objectively townie” reads but is completely dead emotionally and apathetic when it really comes to lynch people near EoD.
If I’m wrong, sorry.. but JEEEZ, there were SO many scummy coincidences
I’m aware.The word you used to describe my tone earlier, "agitated", is extremely accurate, and you're making me agitated now.
Yeah I'm pretty sure traitors being informed of their team in Normals is a hard rule.In post 1408, Frogsterking wrote:I thought about the hood thing and I thought it could be a mix-up on the tradition. I dont that necessarily invalidates the idea.
If traitor is usually informed of their scum team though then my theory probably doesn't hold up. Is that always the case?
I might post what I found anyway in case a discussion needs sparking.
bug, the fact that you were able to guess the traitor in 1 game doesn’t mean that it applies to all gamesIn post 1416, bugspray wrote:also whoever the fuck insinuated that there's a traitor who doesn't know who the buddies are that's ridiculous i just played bingle's one micro as a scum who didn't know who my partner is with secret alts and it was hellish in a few ways even though I was instantly able to identify my partner so unless you think georgebailey is completely incompetent at intelligent setup design that isn't even worth considering and also probably woldn't pass normal review because it's not mafia due to something something informed minority so occam's razor just says that's...
Spoiler: BULLSHIT
yeah on this, do you still feel like bugspray is "your counterpart" or whatever you called him in there?In post 1417, ejjinami wrote:about the hood, I had a spicy guess about the role list, which was based on me mistaking galron for grendal + one of bug’s posts in there
depends on the setup.In post 1420, Gamma Emerald wrote:yeah on this, do you still feel like bugspray is "your counterpart" or whatever you called him in there?In post 1417, ejjinami wrote:about the hood, I had a spicy guess about the role list, which was based on me mistaking galron for grendal + one of bug’s posts in there
And me I think.In post 1400, Frogsterking wrote:You skipped providing any notes on both Galron and Luca.
that has nothing to do with my argumentIn post 1419, ejjinami wrote:bug, the fact that you were able to guess the traitor in 1 game doesn’t mean that it applies to all games