"did i not post here dammit" because i was distracted watching something.
This seems implausible.
why so?
It looks like that is not a crumb.
+1
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:35 pm
by Not Known 15
Titus
has been eliminated Day 2. They were:
Spoiler:
Night 2 begins and ends in (expired on 2021-08-31 20:36:00).
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:32 pm
by Not Known 15
ssbm_Kyouko
died Night 2. They were:
Spoiler:
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:38 am
by Dwlee99
Grandpa results?
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:16 am
by Kazyan
I analyzed wagons during the night phase, and I now have a theory on who the scumteam is. I'll check Kyo's ISO to see if his flip corroborates it before I explain.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:30 am
by Kazyan
Hm, Kyo's ISO is not particularly informative. Kyo's only serious Day 2 activity was dunking on Titus, but we already know everything about Titus.
Half of my jumble of notes is on my home computer, actually, so I can't give my full analysis. I should probably wait until after GMo checks in, anyway.
Titus was on neither of the other 3 wagons
GrandpaMo was on neither of the other 3 wagons
Kayzan was on the Enchant wagon
Dwlee99 was on the GrandpaMo wagon
Enchant was on none of the other three wagons
Nathan was on the Alice and GrandpaMo one
Man thats weird, so little cross matching between the wagons
Ythan and Andres were on the Kayzan and Grandpamo ones.
Titus (6)ssbm_Kyouko;Andresvmb;Nathann;Kazyan;DrippingGoofball;GrandpaMo;
That was the Titus wagon
SSBM obv town
GrandpaMo;Kazyan;Dwlee99;Nathann;Enchant
^^ those were the unknowns on the Day 1 wagon
Kazyan on both - and on the Enchant wagon
Nathann on both - and on the GrandpaMo one and also said they were on the Kayzan one
In post 1323, Nathann wrote:Whoever Townreads Enchant (DGB I think? Anyone else?), can I get a tl;dr? Or maybe even a full read?
In the interest of making something happen, VOTE: Titus.
that was the reasoning on the vote on titus
In post 1383, Nathann wrote:I just rechecked, I don't think I am. And I was planning on unvoting because it seemed like the gamestate was happy with the wagon. Here's hoping I was wrong.
they posted this later
if i was betting, this would be where i would be looking, but it is pretty circumstantial....
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:29 am
by GrandpaMo
Okay if it wasn't obvious.
I was not the watcher. I fully retract here.
I was baiting the NK and didn't work, I honestly don't know why mafia couldn't kill me as to oppose to even frame me.
This probably just makes everyone who believed my claim to be town. And the 4 people yesterday who scumread me contain probably 2 scum.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:29 am
by GrandpaMo
Also something to note, if I was scum, I wouldn't have retracted and I would have fully went with my claim to just claim someone tracked someone and get a mislynch today.
Also -- If there is a real watcher in the game they probably watched me and now I am confirmed town. Now thinking about it, there is a world where Dwlee is scum. Like what is the point of claiming backup watcher if there is no watcher in the game. Honestly, if YOU ARE WATCHER, you should probably claim here with at least a confirmed.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:35 am
by Nathann
In post 1409, GrandpaMo wrote:Also -- If there is a real watcher in the game they probably watched me and now I am confirmed town. Now thinking about it, there is a world where Dwlee is scum. Like what is the point of claiming backup watcher if there is no watcher in the game. Honestly, if YOU ARE WATCHER, you should probably claim here with at least a confirmed.
A real Watcher would have no reason to watch you. And even if they did, it wouldn't make you confirmed Town in any way. Stop trying to rolefish.
In post 1383, Nathann wrote:I just rechecked, I don't think I am. And I was planning on unvoting because it seemed like the gamestate was happy with the wagon. Here's hoping I was wrong.
they posted this later
if i was betting, this would be where i would be looking, but it is pretty circumstantial....
Yes, I posted that later, after a certain amount of time had passed and there seemed to be zero resistance or someone freaking out over a Titus wagon. That is scummy because...?
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:42 am
by Kazyan
VOTE: GrandpaMo for compulsive lying.
Okay, that's out of my system. UNVOTE: GrandpaMo. The actual scumteam is DGB and Ythan (or maybe Andre as a deepwolf), and I'm willing to bet today's elimination on getting DGB gone. VOTE: DGB
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:43 am
by Nathann
I'm thinking there's scum in DGB/GrandpaMo, I was even wondering if it's possible that's our team. Because two people who didn't even bother to check how many votes Titus is on, when it was probably very obvious she was around Y-1 range? My gut is going against both of those, though.
VOTE: Ythan?
Pedit: nice timing. We got any elaboration behind that theory?
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:51 am
by Kazyan
In post 1413, Nathann wrote:Pedit: nice timing. We got any elaboration behind that theory?
Here's the half of my notes I do have available...
Day 1
ALICE: Titus;GrandpaMo;Kazyan;Dwlee99*;Nathann;Enchant;Jolyne;
vs
KAZYAN: ssbm_Kyouko;Andresvmb;Ythan;DrippingGoofball;
Off-wagon: gera, Alice
(*Wanted Enchant. Specifically did not want Titus.)
Day 2
TITUS: ssbm_Kyouko;Andresvmb;Nathann;Kazyan;DGB;GrandpaMo
Off-wagon: Titus, Enchant
Not Voting: Dwlee, gera, Ythan
Thread of consistency from Dwlee--didn't want Titus on Day 1, but didn't sneak onto the wagon on Day 2, which it would have been so easy to do as scum.
---
DGB's reads on day 2: Performed a reread. Thought of Enchant as town, suggested Ythan+Titus as a scumteam, then decided on GMo+Titus. Thinks of Dwlee as town.
Suggests for Enchant to vote for GMo...instead of Titus? Huh?
---
The scumteam is probably not very WIFOM-y, since they killed Jolyne on day one instead of going for Nathan or something. We could expect their actions to be direct.
---
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12969430
This is GMo's #1370. Says he'll die tonight, because the three scummiest people don't believe him...when when he gets to me, he brushes it off with a "don't worry your pretty little head" kind of comment. Doesn't bother to compare me to the others.
What perspective is this?
If GMo is town, he thinks the scum are trying to get him miselimed.
If GMo is scum, he's trying to discredit the doubters. Once again, it's be wacky if he were partners with Dwlee, because he's hard-defending himself and Dwlee in the face of being doubted into a corner by four people. It's like throwing his scumbuddy in as a bonus prize to whoever catches him, because GMo and Dwlee are the ones going all-in on the Watcher theory
It's super interesting to me that there were four doubts on GMo's claim, but only one vote, and that vote came from Titus (who flipped town). I was trying to unconfuse myself at the time, but DGB and Enchant are, like,
confident
that GMo was BS'ing, but they held off voting! DGB even went for Titus, while telling people to vote for GMo,
like it was trying to score that Titus miselim
.
---
Factions:
Dwlee-GMo
DGB-Enchant
---
TODO:
Jabber at gera and Ythan today. They do not have much alignment-indicative content that I can understand.
---
READS:
DGB - scum
Ythan - reasonable partner for DGB
GMo - my heart says "scum" but my evidence says "town"
Enchant - 50/50? idk I'm just not feeling this as scum anymore
Andre - probably town? Sort after we deal with DGB; low-key deepwolf
gera - probably town; would have great restraint to stay off all of these wagons
Dwlee - town
Kyo - town
Nathan - town
...But here's the snippet in the note pile that you're probably the most interested in: "It's super interesting to me that there were four doubts on GMo's claim, but only one vote, and that vote came from Titus (who flipped town). I was trying to unconfuse myself at the time, but DGB and Enchant are, like,
confident
that GMo was BS'ing, but they held off voting! DGB even went for Titus, while telling people to vote for GMo,
like it was trying to score that Titus miselim
."
I also remember the reason that I fell out of love with the idea that Enchant could be scum in my other notes. Basically, take a look at what happens around 1019. I'm at E-2, I say I'll claim at E-1, but then two people dismount the wagon. The only other person who we're sure was there to see the whole thing was Enchant. It would have been very pro-scum to push me to claim.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:55 am
by Kazyan
Oh, there was also that other time I hit E-2 near the end of Day 1, which was when DGB switched from their vanity self-vote to a vote on me. No one switched to me thereafter, despite the time pressure giving everyone an excellent alibi. I'd buy that one scum was on the Alice wagon (or gera sitting out?), but two would have been very unlikely, so that's a bunch of +town for everyone on the Alice wagon and the opposite for everyone on the Kazyan wagon at that time.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:58 am
by Kazyan
In post 1415, Kazyan wrote:I'd buy that one scum was on the Alice wagon (or gera sitting out?), but two would have been very unlikely, so that's a bunch of +town for everyone on the Alice wagon and the opposite for everyone on the Kazyan wagon at that time.
To clarify: 2 scum on Kazyan wagon = believable, 1 scum = also believable, 0 scum = nah.
In post 1409, GrandpaMo wrote:Also -- If there is a real watcher in the game they probably watched me and now I am confirmed town. Now thinking about it, there is a world where Dwlee is scum. Like what is the point of claiming backup watcher if there is no watcher in the game. Honestly, if YOU ARE WATCHER, you should probably claim here with at least a confirmed.
A real Watcher would have no reason to watch you. And even if they did, it wouldn't make you confirmed Town in any way. Stop trying to rolefish.
Oh. I thought watcher was like tracker wack.
But -- isn't optimal for watcher to out regardless? Wouldn't that make Dwlee confirmed? Like why doesn't Dwlee die at night?
Day 1
ALICE: Titus;GrandpaMo;Kazyan;Dwlee99*;Nathann;Enchant;Jolyne;
vs
KAZYAN: ssbm_Kyouko;Andresvmb;Ythan;DrippingGoofball;
Off-wagon: gera, Alice
(*Wanted Enchant. Specifically did not want Titus.)
Day 2
TITUS: ssbm_Kyouko;Andresvmb;Nathann;Kazyan;DGB;GrandpaMo
Off-wagon: Titus, Enchant
Not Voting: Dwlee, gera, Ythan
Thread of consistency from Dwlee--didn't want Titus on Day 1, but didn't sneak onto the wagon on Day 2, which it would have been so easy to do as scum.
---
DGB's reads on day 2: Performed a reread. Thought of Enchant as town, suggested Ythan+Titus as a scumteam, then decided on GMo+Titus. Thinks of Dwlee as town.
Suggests for Enchant to vote for GMo...instead of Titus? Huh?
---
The scumteam is probably not very WIFOM-y, since they killed Jolyne on day one instead of going for Nathan or something. We could expect their actions to be direct.
---
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12969430
This is GMo's #1370. Says he'll die tonight, because the three scummiest people don't believe him...when when he gets to me, he brushes it off with a "don't worry your pretty little head" kind of comment. Doesn't bother to compare me to the others.
What perspective is this?
If GMo is town, he thinks the scum are trying to get him miselimed.
If GMo is scum, he's trying to discredit the doubters. Once again, it's be wacky if he were partners with Dwlee, because he's hard-defending himself and Dwlee in the face of being doubted into a corner by four people. It's like throwing his scumbuddy in as a bonus prize to whoever catches him, because GMo and Dwlee are the ones going all-in on the Watcher theory
It's super interesting to me that there were four doubts on GMo's claim, but only one vote, and that vote came from Titus (who flipped town). I was trying to unconfuse myself at the time, but DGB and Enchant are, like,
confident
that GMo was BS'ing, but they held off voting! DGB even went for Titus, while telling people to vote for GMo,
like it was trying to score that Titus miselim
.
---
Factions:
Dwlee-GMo
DGB-Enchant
---
TODO:
Jabber at gera and Ythan today. They do not have much alignment-indicative content that I can understand.
---
READS:
DGB - scum
Ythan - reasonable partner for DGB
GMo - my heart says "scum" but my evidence says "town"
Enchant - 50/50? idk I'm just not feeling this as scum anymore
Andre - probably town? Sort after we deal with DGB; low-key deepwolf
gera - probably town; would have great restraint to stay off all of these wagons
Dwlee - town
Kyo - town
Nathan - town
...But here's the snippet in the note pile that you're probably the most interested in: "It's super interesting to me that there were four doubts on GMo's claim, but only one vote, and that vote came from Titus (who flipped town). I was trying to unconfuse myself at the time, but DGB and Enchant are, like,
confident
that GMo was BS'ing, but they held off voting! DGB even went for Titus, while telling people to vote for GMo,
like it was trying to score that Titus miselim
."
I also remember the reason that I fell out of love with the idea that Enchant could be scum in my other notes. Basically, take a look at what happens around 1019. I'm at E-2, I say I'll claim at E-1, but then two people dismount the wagon. The only other person who we're sure was there to see the whole thing was Enchant. It would have been very pro-scum to push me to claim.
okay pog. You are the only town gamesolving through what I did yesterday; and I am glad you are looking at the way of how people reacted to my claim. It was very weird honestly.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:04 am
by Kazyan
As for Ythan, I arrived at him pretty much through PoE and the partner. Andre's vote behaviors were headtilt-y, so I can't rule him out as strongly as the others, but I don't think we're in a spot where we need to put on the tinfoil yet.
In post 1409, GrandpaMo wrote:Also -- If there is a real watcher in the game they probably watched me and now I am confirmed town. Now thinking about it, there is a world where Dwlee is scum. Like what is the point of claiming backup watcher if there is no watcher in the game. Honestly, if YOU ARE WATCHER, you should probably claim here with at least a confirmed.
A real Watcher would have no reason to watch you. And even if they did, it wouldn't make you confirmed Town in any way. Stop trying to rolefish.
Oh. I thought watcher was like tracker wack.
But -- isn't optimal for watcher to out regardless? Wouldn't that make Dwlee confirmed? Like why doesn't Dwlee die at night?
Even if you thought Watcher was like a Tracker, how does that make you confirmed Town?
And no. If there is a Watcher (which I extremely highly doubt, but let's pretend), them outing does nothing.
In post 1409, GrandpaMo wrote:Also -- If there is a real watcher in the game they probably watched me and now I am confirmed town. Now thinking about it, there is a world where Dwlee is scum. Like what is the point of claiming backup watcher if there is no watcher in the game. Honestly, if YOU ARE WATCHER, you should probably claim here with at least a confirmed.
A real Watcher would have no reason to watch you. And even if they did, it wouldn't make you confirmed Town in any way. Stop trying to rolefish.
Oh. I thought watcher was like tracker wack.
But -- isn't optimal for watcher to out regardless? Wouldn't that make Dwlee confirmed? Like why doesn't Dwlee die at night?
Even if you thought Watcher was like a Tracker, how does that make you confirmed Town?
And no. If there is a Watcher (which I extremely highly doubt, but let's pretend), them outing does nothing.
Then why is Dwlee backup watcher?
And it would make me confirmed only if they visited me and didn't see me visit the night kill. I guess we were also on the presumption that there is Ninja's or some shit like that in the setup -- so that is the only way where I am not confirmed.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:10 am
by Kazyan
Absolutely wild that all of this has spun out of me unthinkingly saying the word "watch" in that one post btw
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:11 am
by GrandpaMo
In post 1422, Kazyan wrote:Absolutely wild that all of this has spun out of me unthinkingly saying the word "watch" in that one post btw
What? I got this analysis from Dwlee claiming backup watching
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:12 am
by Nathann
In post 1414, Kazyan wrote:...But here's the snippet in the note pile that you're probably the most interested in: "It's super interesting to me that there were four doubts on GMo's claim, but only one vote, and that vote came from Titus (who flipped town). I was trying to unconfuse myself at the time, but DGB and Enchant are, like, confident that GMo was BS'ing, but they held off voting! DGB even went for Titus, while telling people to vote for GMo, like it was trying to score that Titus miselim."
Hm. The "not believing GranpaMo's claim, not voting him, but keeping the door open towards voting him" is what I'd imagine Scum would be doing at a strong but dubious power role claim from a suspected Townie.
I was going to write out how I'd imagine then there being a Ninja, but I think it's also possible Scum would know that Town!GrandpaMo is lying if they have
no
Ninjas - up to two Watchers in a 2v11 with an IC is extremely improbable.