Mafiascum.net

Yeah, if you (cephrir) do have anything it might be an idea to say it.

christiano drago wrote:

Cephrir wrote:I have to contribute here is that CD is constantly rubbing me the wrong way even though I don't have anything concrete.

Means you think you have something - but you're hesitant to post it because it's easily discreditable.

Either that was just a case of mistaken phraseology [which, personally, I don't believe in], or you're weary of making a case that looks weak because it will put you in the spotlight.

Last I checked, "I don't have anything concrete" means "I don't have anything concrete". I don't see why this is so difficult to understand.

Cephrir wrote:And I'm pretty sure I didn't do what you just said in your last sentence.

Well, if you're going to deny it:

Cephrir wrote:I have to say, given ABR's forgetting his role,

and

his somewhat difficult to believe target (although I can think of a reason to track cd),

he's likely scum.

Oct 20. Emphasis yours.

Cephrir wrote:I'm not sure CML is the right lynch, but I suppose it's better to lose a townie than a potential tracker and yes, I would still say there's a substantial chance ABR is not lying.

Cephrir wrote:I'm not sure if CML's repeated insistance that there's no case on him indicates frustrated townie or frustrated scum. I know I have reacted that way as both.

Both from the same Oct 21 post. It's unclear what would have changed your mind, and, given that you a lot more convinced ABR was scum than CML, it's a bit surprising you still put your vote on CML. I just remembered this and it struck me as a parallel to your mentioning of Jebus and vote for Zak.

xtoxm claims
ghostwriter asks for details
wolfram asks specific questions
drago speculates xtoxm is tseng or jenova, doesnt factor in a safeclaim
ghostwriter: you'll only be able to target one of possibly multiple scum groups
drago wants to lynch xtoxm before his target
carncarn votes xtoxm "even if you arent scum"
zakeri considers xtoxm a jester--this is before xtoxm says he investigates shinra
iLord wants xtoxm to blow a safeclaim

ghostwriter: what kind of people you, as the cop, are looking for (I'm nearly 100% sure that you aren't just going to be able to look at someone and get a blanket result of "oh, they're against the town; oh they're not against the town". There's got to be some one/group you're aiming for in general

xtoxm says he looks for shinra and armlx is shinra
wolfram unvotes. kind of sets up the 1-2 punch on xtoxm (lynch armlx then xtoxm)
ghostwriter unvotes
iLord still wants xtoxm the "shinra cop" dead instead of armlx (bizarre since iLord is a Turk!)
wolfram calls out iLord, still playing it cool
wolfram shows genuine uncertainty--he's probably not shinra
ghostwriter agrees to lynch armlx
iamausername shows uncertainty, agrees to lynch armlx
zakeri indeed hints that maybe armlx+xtoxm are shinra scumpair, expresses confidence that xtoxm isnt a shinra-seeking cop. zakeri probably not shinra, , votes for armlx
(note: no obvious signs of Shinra responses yet)
Albert claims daycop.
(now, shinra know xtoxm is lying from before, and turks probably suspect that either xtoxm or ABR is the shinra cop looking for turks. shinra don't know if ABR is a turk cop looking for shinra yet)
iamausername immediately votes xtoxm
zakeri votes xtoxm
tony votes xtoxm
liam (shinra) votes armlx cause he knows xtoxm will get busted overnight for lying about armlx=shinra
liam asks for shinra-hunting flavor from xtoxm
empking wants to "test" xtoxm by lynching armlx, just like Liam. .
drago wants xtoxm dead for lying
cavebear-good curious questions about the two cops. asks ABR: "Do you detect raised levels of Mako energy or Jenova cells?" Would a Turk or Shinra ask this question?
dynamo shows mild uncertainty

GhostWriter: "For him to get mislynches, you'd have to be the one to randomly have been guessed right. On top of that, you'd have to be aligned with Shinra upon death. The point that I am making is that he get mislynches out of this. The only way for him to even stay alive after your death is if you are not only scum, but specifically Shinra."
Note Ghostwriter:
* says "more" mislynches meaning he knows armlx is a mislynch
* says "randomly guessed right" implying he knows xtosm is guessing
* seems to know armlx won't come up Shinra
Note that if armlx does come up Shinra, xtoxm can get more "mislynches". But GhostWriter expresses absolute certainty that xtoxm "will not" get more mislynches.

Jebus doesnt seem to know that armlx isnt shinra. jebus may not be shinra after all. wants to keep xtoxm around to hunt shinra.
Yosarian on xtoxm: "I'm like 95% sure is not just a fake claim, but possibly the worst fake claim I've ever seen?" and votes xtoxm. who knows xtoxm is lying. Is Yos really this sloppy?
Tony: "If xtoxm really is a cop, and he really got a guilty armlx, he's insane at best. In which case, he would still be our best lynch." this could mean Tony knows xtoxm isn't Shinra. Tony could be the Shinra cop that looks for Turks...
Empking overreacts to Tony's posts, seems to know Tony's talking about xtoxm being wrong about Shinra.
Spamwise/Cephrir seems too certain that xtoxm is wrong.
cavebear shows uncertainty, votes armlx
wolfram again with the 1-2 punch armlx then xtoxm

Ghostwriter looks really bad here for his approach towards xtoxm. he knew early that a cop would be looking for one specific scumteam. he seems to know xtoxm chose randomly to try and mislynch or get lucky. he seems to know the result is probably a mislynch, as he knows armlx isnt shinra.

Lots of people look like possible Shinra from this analysis: GhostWriter, Yos, Empking, TonyMontana.

RL has me trapped in its basement and only gives me water once in a while

I should escape soon

Grimmy

Let me clear up a few things you seem to not get within your posins of what I did.

MrBuddyLee wrote:GhostWriter: "For him to get

more

mislynches, you'd have to be the one to randomly have been guessed right. On top of that, you'd have to be aligned with Shinra upon death. The point that I am making is that he

will not

get

other

mislynches out of this. The only way for him to even stay alive after your death is if you are not only scum, but specifically Shinra."
Note Ghostwriter:
* says "more" mislynches meaning he knows armlx is a mislynch
* says "randomly guessed right" implying he knows xtosm is guessing
* seems to know armlx won't come up Shinra
Note that if armlx does come up Shinra, xtoxm can get more "mislynches". But GhostWriter expresses absolute certainty that xtoxm "will not" get more mislynches.

GW = probable Shinra

That entire post was made from the viewpoint of Armlx, in that if Armlx had been lynched, found out to be town, and thus a mislynch, then we'd know x amount of detail from, which I then went into listing, still from that same viewpoint of "if a happens, then b".

MrBuddyLee wrote:Ghostwriter looks really bad here for his approach towards xtoxm. he knew early that a cop would be looking for one specific scumteam.

Considering we were all (mostly) sure of there easily being able to have 2 scum groups from the way the game is setup, I saw no point to ever doubt that there were anything less. Add onto that my philosophy of most large games having a setup of 2 mafia groups and at least one other night killing role (SK, vig, JOAT, doesn't matter which) but most likely 2 other night killing role, and you have me doing nothing more than spouting what I believe to be common sense. On top of that, since when have mafia groups been told "Hey guys, you'll only have one of multiple cops looking for you!"? If it's ever been done that way, I've never seen it.

Cephrir wrote:

GhostWriter wrote:

Jebus wrote:And was it just me, or did the first half come over as scummy?

It wasn't just you. It sounded like admitted coaching to me.

Coaching? That doesn't even make sense.

As in, it sounded like Zak was saying that Rice told Zak to do better with keeping active, as not to look scummy, and Zak is doing that now.

GhostWriter wrote:

Cephrir wrote:

GhostWriter wrote:

Jebus wrote:And was it just me, or did the first half come over as scummy?

It wasn't just you. It sounded like admitted coaching to me.

Coaching? That doesn't even make sense.

As in, it sounded like Zak was saying that Rice told Zak to do better with keeping active, as not to look scummy, and Zak is doing that now.

Right, 'kay. Sorta misread that.

CarnCarn wrote:

Cephrir wrote:And I'm pretty sure I didn't do what you just said in your last sentence.

Well, if you're going to deny it:

Cephrir wrote:I have to say, given ABR's forgetting his role,

and

his somewhat difficult to believe target (although I can think of a reason to track cd),

he's likely scum.

Oct 20. Emphasis yours.

Cephrir wrote:I'm not sure CML is the right lynch, but I suppose it's better to lose a townie than a potential tracker and yes, I would still say there's a substantial chance ABR is not lying.

Cephrir wrote:I'm not sure if CML's repeated insistance that there's no case on him indicates frustrated townie or frustrated scum. I know I have reacted that way as both.

Both from the same Oct 21 post. It's unclear what would have changed your mind, and, given that you

sound

a lot more convinced ABR was scum than CML, it's a bit surprising you still put your vote on CML. I just remembered this and it struck me as a parallel to your mentioning of Jebus and vote for Zak.

Hm. Guess I did say that. Well, I'd been pretty much leaning towards believing ABR all day. I think what made up my mind was that a scum wasn't more likely to screw up that badly than town. You'll notice my first reaction upon seeing that Tony wasn't going to happen was to vote CML. Also: mentioning someone in a post isn't the same as thinking they're the most suspicious. Voting usually is.

GhostWriter wrote:Add onto that my philosophy of most large games having a setup of 2 mafia groups

Since when?

Frickin grey screen stole my votecount. I'll have one tomorrow.

MrBuddyLee wrote: Yosarian on xtoxm: "I'm like 95% sure is not just a fake claim, but possibly the worst fake claim I've ever seen?" and votes xtoxm.

Very possible Shinra

who knows xtoxm is lying. Is Yos really this sloppy?

:eyebrow:

It was the worst fake-claim I've ever seen. He gets pressured for very good reason, claims townie, then when that dosn't save him says he was lying and that he's really a day-cop who got a guilty on Armlx. The claim was obv just something he invented to save his ass, and he refused to comment on the obvious flaws in it (like, when did he investigate Armlx, why would he use a day investigation "randomally" and so early in the day), besides the fact that it was just a totally BS claim, and I was frustrated that people seemed to be taking it seriously.

Your accusation dosn't even make sense. If I was Shanara, how would I "know" he was lying in a game with multiple scumgroups? And if I was a scum who somehow did magically know that both he and armlx were town, then wouldn't the ideal scum move for me be to support the "let's test him by lynching Armlx" movement anyway?

Shinra knew immediately that xtoxm was lying about armlx being Shinra. That's why I went back and read the game from the perspective of a Shinra.

Yos, what do you think of GhostWriter's actions after xtoxm claimed armlx was Shinra?

MrBuddyLee wrote:Shinra knew immediately that xtoxm was lying about armlx being Shinra. That's why I went back and read the game from the perspective of a Shinra.

Ah...forgot he claimed Shinra cop. Ok, makes sense now.

I still say it was one of the worst fake claims I've ever seen, and I don't think anyone should have needed any insider info to come to that conclusion.

Yos, what do you think of GhostWriter's actions after xtoxm claimed armlx was Shinra?

Well, if you'd really rather me answer that then him, I don't think it's as strong as you do and that you're quoting him out of context.

Cephrir wrote:

GhostWriter wrote:Add onto that my philosophy of most large games having a setup of 2 mafia groups

Since when?

Since I played a few large games, on this site, and on others, and discovered it to be a common trait. I then looked at other large games in the past. The majority, themed or not, have that 2 mafia/1-2 alternate night kill rule. Therefore, I've begun using that as my basic ideology of how games are setup when I enter them, unless explicitly told different.

Yosarian2 wrote:Well, if you'd really rather me answer that then him, I don't think it's as strong as you do and that you're quoting him out of context.

I think it's weird that you don't realize he's already responded 5 posts above yours. Why are you hesitant to talk about GhostWriter? How specifically did I quote him out of context?

MrBuddyLee wrote:
I think it's weird that you don't realize he's already responded 5 posts above yours. Why are you hesitant to talk about GhostWriter? How specifically did I quote him out of context?

I'm hesitant to defend him, sure, because I don't feel like I have a good read on his alignment and because he hasn't really done anything strongly pro-town this game, I don't like to defend people I'm not confident on. But since you asked me, I'll answer your question.

Actually, I was thinking your argument looked strong and was thinking about voting him, until I went back and saw the context his post was written in. But when I read the whole post, it was quickly apparent that your arguments only sounded good if you take it out of context.

This was the context, the GhostWriter post right before the one you posted, with the quote tag fixed for clarity.

Ghostwriter wrote:

armlx wrote:EBWODP: Everyone also has to realize that if xtoxm didn't claim day cop here, he was going to be lynched. This way he gets to mise a mislynch out of it if people listen, possibly more if he randomly guess right.

For him to get more mislynches, you'd have to be the one to randomly have been guessed right. On top of that, you'd have to be aligned with Shinra upon death. Anything else, and he dies. No if's, and's, or but's about it.

Once you see that, it becomes clear that:

MrBuddyLee wrote: Note Ghostwriter:
* says "more" mislynches meaning he knows armlx is a mislynch

The "more mislynch" thing is pretty clearly just a response to Armlx saying "a mislynch, possibly more".

* says "randomly guessed right" implying he knows xtosm is guessing

Again, he's just responding to Armlx talking about xtosm "randomally guessing right" and thus getting mislynches, and pointing out that would imply Arlmx is scum.

* seems to know armlx won't come up Shinra

This, I don't see at ll, if you read it in context.

Note that if armlx does come up Shinra, xtoxm can get more "mislynches".

Actually, that was almost a direct quote of what Armlx said. Again, you're not reading it in context. It seems like you're trying to take a bunch of things to be scum freudian slips, when in context they're mostly just him quoting Armlx in order to refute what Armlx was saying.

Yeah, I'm going to have to agree with Yos on this one, the GW case is weaksauce when you take his post in context.

And I don't see why Empking wanting to test Xtoxm's claim makes him specifically Shinra; Turks would benefit just as much from doing so, as far as I can see, and given his actions with regard to CML yesterday, that's what I'm thinking Empking is.

Also don't think TonyMontana is Shinra after his claim. Maybe this is stepping into dangerous outguessing the mod territory, but if Cloud is a safeclaim, I'd imagine it would be for SK Sephiroth.

Yos = Shinra is right on the money though, IMO.

If Cloud is the person you control when you play, aka a major character, wouldn't it be a safeclaim? Eg, wouldn't there be an actual role with that name? (which is why I was so quick to unvote TM)

It's the only reason I unvoted, because, as far as I'm concerned, it's one of those players that CAN'T be left out. A mod can have far too much fun creating that role to not go ahead and put it in. Same as Sephiroth.

iamausername wrote:
Yos = Shinra is right on the money though, IMO.

You going to actualy make a case for that, or are you just going to follow all the MBF arguments without even saying anything about the defense I gave to them?

Sorry for the continued inactivity.
I've done a lot of re-reading tonight, but I'm afraid I'm not quite done with it. More to come, I guess. in the meantime, rather than letting my vote just hang in limbo, I'll vote someone else who could make some opinions clearer and his voice heard a bit louder:


I'd urge anyone else not voting to vote . Better a hesitant vote than no vote at all; people sometimes act funny (read: crack) under pressure, and every little bit of info (as in voting patterns etc) can potentially help the town.

iamausername wrote:Yeah, I'm going to have to agree with Yos on this one, the GW case is weaksauce when you take his post in context.

And I don't see why Empking wanting to test Xtoxm's claim makes him specifically Shinra; Turks would benefit just as much from doing so, as far as I can see, and given his actions with regard to CML yesterday, that's what I'm thinking Empking is.

Also don't think TonyMontana is Shinra after his claim. Maybe this is stepping into dangerous outguessing the mod territory, but if Cloud is a safeclaim, I'd imagine it would be for SK Sephiroth.

Yos = Shinra is right on the money though, IMO.

Are you a "He wanted him lynched. It must be a bus." kind of guy?

Yosarian2 wrote:You going to actualy make a case for that, or are you just going to follow all the MBF arguments without even saying anything about the defense I gave to them?

No.

Empking wrote: Are you a "He wanted him lynched. It must be a bus." kind of guy?

No.

seriously i am still waiting to be blown away by his read through and thoughts

VC?