Mafiascum.net

↑ T-Bone wrote:My problem with the way you are using VCA (and probably other's problems) is that is assumes some things. It assumes scum will be properly distributed in a VC and it assumes scum coordinate their votes with absolute precision to get this distribution. In my experience, I don't go out of my way to coordinate any sort of day play with my scummates.

I'm actually supposing that lack of coordination and the dillemma decision making. Coordination is problematic.

↑ pirate mollie wrote:

↑ Titus wrote:@PM, I didn't see much distinction there. Yes, I get people have to filter through my alignment. Yet, if somethings true, it is true. If Egg had been scum, I would have been autoscum with him. If the Egg lynch went through and he flipped scum, I would have understood lynching me and gone back to the drawing board.

It is possible VCA can be manipulatable but not to a huge extent. Also, VCAs being manipulatable to hide from me makes little logical sense since I wasn't there.

well, vca is an interpretative value system not mod confirmed info (barring bastard games wrt mod confirmed info) and I think that is the difference between evidence and "facts".

I feel like this is what you are missing.

Ok I think there was a poor word choice here (in my world relevant evidence is facts) but I get what you're saying.

Something can be strongly suggestive without it being true.

I agree with that. Which is why I trust people to supplement whatever facts I'm missing.

The goal is to get out all the facts.
Then apply the facts.

Next town game you have strike the word 'fact' from your dictionary, and you might yield more willing listeners.

Then we can't discuss anything. Facts are the basis of any rational decision... :S *confused*

↑ kuribo wrote:Scum team was me, DGB, katsuki, and deas veil.

holy shit

I'd just call the game right there if I was modding

Anyway, I'm going to try to apply this. It may take awhile, but I think I can get a little better every game.

Thank all of you.

↑ FakeGod wrote:

↑ kuribo wrote:Scum team was me, DGB, katsuki, and deas veil.

holy shit

I'd just call the game right there if I was modding

my bad, it was delta wave not deas vail
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=3912484

↑ Titus wrote:Thanks for the faith Boo.

The proper response for Boo scum was to shoot UT.

Fferylt would vote me bc myVCA was wrong.

This is wrong btw. I would have voted UT.

↑ Titus wrote:Thanks for the faith Boo.

The proper response for Boo scum was to shoot UT.

Fferylt would vote me bc myVCA was wrong.

This is wrong btw. I would have voted UT.

You guys were adorably uncouth with the restrictions. I applaud your creativity and persistence!

↑ fferyllt wrote:

↑ Titus wrote:Thanks for the faith Boo.

The proper response for Boo scum was to shoot UT.

Fferylt would vote me bc myVCA was wrong.

This is wrong btw. I would have voted UT.

Kinda surprised you would do that but I'll take it.

Hey FakeGod I wanna run by you an idea I had for a game

post it in the secret treehouse

Done

*1424 also needs at least 1 scum flip.

↑ kuribo wrote:Titus just hasn't played against a scum that's skilled with manipulating VCAs yet

Like in Gay Mafia where the scum team voted the entire game as a single block because who the hell would actually do that?


Ah gay mafia, one regret against many

Also you just flatout claimed masons with DGB in that game from the getgo.

↑ Titus wrote:It is possible VCA can be manipulatable but not to a huge extent. Also, VCAs being manipulatable to hide from me makes little logical sense since I wasn't there.

Coming back to the issue that not everyone is going to be totally logical.

In my very first scumgame on site (maybe 2nd? I was in them at the same time), All 3 of my teammates bussed Aurorus Vox (our last teammate) out of the blue on like page 8. All 3 votes on him were scum and he was the last scum. I replaced in at some point and used it as a town case for my slot because: "I can't be scum, look I was voting scum here with another flipped scum!" and some people bought that defense. so I'm highly skeptical of one-off cases like that.

in the memory of light mini that ceph ran the scum team block voted every game day except for the day they bussed one of their own iirc.
and if you read this game's Mafia thread they were busing for lols at the game start.

↑ AngryPidgeon wrote:

↑ kuribo wrote:Titus just hasn't played against a scum that's skilled with manipulating VCAs yet

Like in Gay Mafia where the scum team voted the entire game as a single block because who the hell would actually do that?


Ah gay mafia, one regret against many

Also you just flatout claimed masons with DGB in that game from the getgo.

No, we soft claimed it at the beginning

Big, big difference

i vaguely followed part of this game and just want to say

↑ Titus wrote:The only time in those games I was wrong in the slightest was InuYasha when I cleared Mhork from being scum because of his play with BBMolla in an unknown multiball situation.

your VCA was wrong in every meaningful way it could be wrong

firstly, if you were doing VCA based on flipped scum and making assumptions about the rest of the scum team, you ruled out the only player who was scum with the flipped scum

secondly, your VCA was based on the assumption of a single scum team, so all the voting patterns you noticed were completely coincidental unless you're suggesting two scum teams who don't know each other will necessarily vote in a particular way

while you may have correctly come to the conclusion that certain players were scum based on VCA, it was pure luck that caused this

oh, and as far as i remember, your VCA in knight errant 2 amounted to "i think scum bussed D1 and all but 2 players on that wagon have flipped town" and the basis of this was simply the assertion that scum bus. meh. i am unsure what conclusions you would have come to on the final day of that game if given time, but iirc you were wrong on the final day in your preliminary assumptions

you over-value VCA and you've never done it in a game where (a) there was one or more all-town-on-town wagons (i've seen towns get wrecked by VCA in these games), or (b) scum co-ordinated their votes specifically to manipulate VCA if it ever occurs (same deal). i'm sure you've been right about it in the past to some extent (and you happened to be right here, too), but claiming someone literally cannot be scum because of half-hearted analysis of a single votecount is why people were not listening to you - you can present it as evidence (strong evidence if you think it is strong, though that is arguable), but in the end it's a single piece of evidence and the fact that you haven't been wrong yet (except, you know... when you were wrong) doesn't suggest you're going to be right in future

@zMuffin,

VCA didn't clear Lord Mhork that game. I cleared Mhork, because he couldn't be scum with Molla. I was right on that.

The rest, perhaps there was a coincidence, perhaps there is a reason I've been that lucky and its a fluke.

Knight Errant is a little bit long ago, but I had reached the conclusion that one of those two had to be scum based on the entire vote count. Yes, day 1 is the most important but not the only day.

funnily enough, my first newbie game on site (as scum) was won when thor brought up VCA and suggested there was almost certainly scum on the D1 town lynch (there wasn't). well, that and some other factors that played into it (like town apathy).

the first large game i followed (but did not play) was cold war mafia, where town basically lost by trying to figure out where the scum was on an all-town-on-town wagon

anyway, the fact that you have been "lucky" is because you're making statements that are true - it's not to do with "VCA" and i wouldn't call it luck. in most games, the assumptions you're making probably would be true. the issue is: there's no guarantee it is true, and you pretend it's a certainty

for example, it is reasonable to assume that if scum was lynched D1, at least one scum member bussed - you would probably find this is the case in most games (and certainly in well over 90% of large games). but it is not always the case, and making this assumption and being right about it in 5-6 games in a row would not guarantee you're right about it in the 7th - just that it is a reasonable assumption and something to strongly consider when looking at other factors as well

@Serene2,

Love the end flavor, but I am SOOOOOOOO breaking Bookitty out of prison with the celebrity lawyer... maybe next game?