Farkran was interested in the developments down in the dirt room. But he was unable to descend. Even though he had a similar size to Chara, his hands were not as dextrous and could not use the handholds. Bingle noticed, and took some pity on the poor monster. Grey smoke puffed out of its body as it began thinking.
"Farkran, you wanna go down there right?" Bingle said. "I approve of that, since that room hasn't existed very long, it doesn't have very many germs. Dirt itself isn't unhealthy. You can even eat dirt and you'll be just fine. Trust me. I'm a doctor. I ate a bunch of dirt yesterday. I just had more lava. If you do the same thing it will work the same way. Anyway, I will help you."
Bingle leaned over and dribbled and spewed lava onto the edge of the pit. The jet of lava began to bore a hole into it. Bingle kept adjusting its aim downward, gradually, to make the rupture longer and inclined, walking backwards as it worked. When it was done, there was something like a long lavaslide leading into the pit, its width similar to Farkran's waist width. As of now, the lava was still piping hot.
"Hurry down! The lava will heal any cuts and scrapes on your legs as a bonus! Or you can slide on your tummy!" Bingle explained, grinning excitedly.
"Um, I don't know about that.." Farkran responded. "Maybe in a minute." He scratched his horn nervously. He was interested in a way down into the room, though.
With nine alive, it takes five to make a decision. (expired on 2020-02-14 20:00:00). Replacement Key
Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:50 pm
by Replica
okay you're right the glow was like, the most disgusting shade of orange and smelled like vomit and that's not how we like to think miracles look/smell but the baby was a little hercules out there running around
Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:54 pm
by Replica
there is absolutely no way i will ever get the votes for this and i should be trying harder on hectic again instead of shitposting but i'm hiding behind it as a coping mechanism
Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:03 pm
by Replica
I'm sorry popsofctown but I'm taking over as moderator effective immediately
This game is no longer an Undertale game, the flavor is changed IMMEDIATELY and new role PMs are headed your way
Mini Theme 2116 is officially a CATS: THE MUSICAL SEMI-OPEN GAME
Now, instead of spares, we are picking one very special Jellicle townsperson to get sent to the Heaviside Layer and granted a new life! Yay!
Fortunately, there is only one very special cat who is worthy of this great honor!
Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:24 pm
by Psyche
what if we play a game of mafia inside this game of mafia and whomever wins picks the spare
Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:51 pm
by Bingle
Ngl, I’m appreciating my new fanclub. Replica is clearly an intelligent and attractive individual who should spend more time talking about how great I am.
I have reasons to want to delay the hectic spare that I cannot elaborate into at this time.
Unless you have ongoing meta about hectic as a basis for this reasoning, you should really elaborate and let us progress with the day. Sparing me is not going to help. I wonder if it will ever be useful that i insist on it, or if you guys just made up your mind about taking the scumsided route for no reason at all.
I would like to teamwork, but i will never spare. We can talk about lynches though. Then, if you still want to spare a dubious townread over gainig info, i cannot stop you. But at least talking about them should not be against your selfmade rules. This is @everyone, not just bingle.
In post 1398, Amrun wrote:Also I agree with Farkran that sparing today is totally different than sparing FN yesterday. Having no flip today makes me disgusted.
I’d probably vote to fight almost anyone that would go through rather than sparing anyone still alive.
If we fight today we are necessarily going the 1 spare route unless we hit scum.
Any lynch here is going to be on a townread of several people making it pulling teeth to achieve or very low information anyway. No one has strong scumreads.
Any nightkill here is going to be high information.
In post 1398, Amrun wrote:Also I agree with Farkran that sparing today is totally different than sparing FN yesterday. Having no flip today makes me disgusted.
I’d probably vote to fight almost anyone that would go through rather than sparing anyone still alive.
If we fight today we are necessarily going the 1 spare route unless we hit scum.
Any lynch here is going to be on a townread of several people making it pulling teeth to achieve or very low information anyway. No one has strong scumreads.
Any nightkill here is going to be high information.
I would very much like to go the 1 spare route, yes.
I don’t functionally disagree with anything else you’ve said but the idea of sparing any slot left and not knowing how it flipped is like maddening.
In post 1405, Amrun wrote:I would rather mislynch by a WIDE margin. At least we know.
Agreed a thousand times. Even with the first post, actually. If we get scum today, aiming for a 3-spare/1-fight is not that far from a plausible victory. That's one more reason to try and find scum early rather than later. I still fail to see how "spare earlier, lynch later" just because of slightly higher math chances could ever be superior to "lynch earlier, improve your reads, adjust accordingly".
In post 1380, Replica wrote:"Arrogant scum" is pushing it, I think he's more risen to the challenge of the game. Letting town continue to rack up spares is death, and most scumplayers think that unless they take control and lead they're not really proving themselves as players.
And please, Replica. Please, please understand that if i was scum here i would meet pretty much no resistance whatsoever in sparing me or my partner. "Letting town continue to rack up spares is death" is completely nonsensical.
When i replaced in i could pretty much quickhammer Hectic, kill random town, spare the FN d2, kill random town and still easily push for a spare on my partner. The way the gamestate is, i could probably push for a spare on anyone right now. Just look at how many people are townreading any random slot. Literally any.
Ah, yeah, give town two free spares and you easily get your scum partner on the third. This would have been very trivial for you, Day 1, replacing in and getting almost universally scumread until people started assuming your reads were too bad and nonsensical to be scum.
Did you just say that i would be scumread for quicksparing town? Twice?
Did you just say that scumpartners could not put solid distance between each other and pilot the gamestate that way, in case i get scumread for my quickspare?
Did you just say that quickhammers in general are always lynched the day after their deed?
This clearly shows your evident lack of experience with this game and psychology in general. Good luck playing with the assumption that town is always good and scum is always bad. If you are town in this game, you're doing a terrible job with your reads and strategies. If you're scum in this game, you are actually being good at getting townread because you are displaying what looks like genuine frustration. That's just how wrong you are regardless of your sincerity in this post.
I was going for a easy answer on this, but i have read your posts that come after this, so i will just point out that i kindly asked you to talk about potential lynches and your answer is literally "Farkran is bad and everyone townreading him is an idiot". I cannot possibly fathom how you can be disappointed if nobody listens to you. That would be optimal play in this game regardless of your alignment. /case closed
In post 1403, Amrun wrote:I would very much like to go the 1 spare route, yes.
I don’t functionally disagree with anything else you’ve said but the idea of sparing any slot left and not knowing how it flipped is like maddening.
Your argument is functionally “Let’s play mountainous!”
The whole point of the setup is trading the uncertainty of spares for progressively stronger mechanical information, and spares are objectively more useful early than late. I am 100% opposed to lynching today.
Are you seriously saying that in 50 pages you have 0 reads that you’re comfortable going, “yup, that’s town.”
There are a couple wrong premises with this
The first is that we should avoid mountainous. Most spare routes are strictly worse than 11v2 mountainous or 8v2 + 1 FN.
The second is that mountainous should be based on EV alone. It shouldn't. As the amount of players increases, reads also progressively increase. Town only loses if it is exceptionally bad or scum is exceptionally good. In this game, i think scum is doing a good job at getting townread regardless of who is correct with their reads, which is why we should never spare in the first place. I will not play under the assumption that any player is better than any other AND the better player is also town.
We have found a "yup, that's town" level of content in Suji and Sherlock. Unfortunately we found them d1, and one of them was the FN. It would have been significantly better if we found them later, and the FN (ideally not within those two) was spared d2. In THAT scenario i would have been ok sparing from d2 onwards - but even then, during n3 sherlock would probably have been killed too so we would have to rely on good reads in New Home, regardless of sparing or lynching in d4.
TL;DR stop considering EV the absolute truth about how mafia should be played. Players and info are, unless the EV is so high that read accuracy is negligible.
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:00 am
by Hectic
saying. But what is alarming for me is how he's VERY stubborn in all his beliefs/points. He doesn't concede any points to anyone, and always finds a way to disagree. At first, I thought it made no sense for scum!Farkran to enter DAY 2 attacking 3 townreads, but the more I think about it, the more I think scum!Farkran needs to do this if he doesn't want to take the loss, as all of {Chara, Hectic, Replica} are town. Which were the highest townreads entering day 2.
Farkran, I've always been for 4 SPARES.
Well
, mostly the skeletons, but they've even convinced ME. So, we entered day 1 promoting it, and we entered day 2 the same - with some good townreads. So, I don't see why you're trying to draw conclusions from that.
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:07 am
by Hectic
In post 1378, Nachomamma8 wrote:I think that you are town because your progressions (how your reads on players change as the game goes on) are extraordinarily deep and I think that the path you are taking now with regards to your scumreads (Replica, Chara, Hectic) are people who are either very strongly townread (Hectic) or are strong players who would be daunting for scum to go against. I don't think any of those pushes are likely to gain traction based on the way they carry themselves and the number of people townreading them. I don't think that scum tend to put in effort unless it feeds an agenda and I don't believe you'd push that group if you simply wanted to look town. As a result, I believe you are either arrogant scum (looking for a challenge), or town who believes that they have something.
Isn't the reason Farkran is pushing those 3 BECAUSE they are highly townread? Sure, he won't gain traction with any of those 3 to FIGHT them, but he will cast doubt on SPARING the three of them, which is a good result for scum!Farkran if they're all town. I don't remember the last time he ever conceded a point to any argument you/Replica/Chara/Psyche has presented. I'm not sure if scum!him originally planned to make himself a potential SPARE target today through these arguments though, I think his primary objective would be to derail the SPARE train.
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:26 am
by Hectic
In post 1434, Farkran wrote:We have found a "yup, that's town" level of content in Suji and Sherlock. Unfortunately we found them d1, and one of them was the FN. It would have been significantly better if we found them later, and the FN (ideally not within those two) was spared d2. In THAT scenario i would have been ok sparing from d2 onwards - but even then, during n3 sherlock would probably have been killed too so we would have to rely on good reads in New Home, regardless of sparing or lynching in d4.
if you're of this opinion, then why weren't you okay with SPARING Suji who you regarded as an IC yesterday, and didn't know was our Friendliest of Neighbours?
Amrun wrote:I would rather mislynch by a WIDE margin. At least we know.
the idea that there's no one in this long ass game we can peg as town w near certainty is frankly as unfathomable as the prospect of sujimichi scum was yesterday
i think yet again you're unduly overstating the game uncertainty to the town's detriment
In post 1403, Amrun wrote:I would very much like to go the 1 spare route, yes.
I don’t functionally disagree with anything else you’ve said but the idea of sparing any slot left and not knowing how it flipped is like maddening.
Your argument is functionally “Let’s play mountainous!”
The whole point of the setup is trading the uncertainty of spares for progressively stronger mechanical information, and spares are objectively more useful early than late. I am 100% opposed to lynching today.
Are you seriously saying that in 50 pages you have 0 reads that you’re comfortable going, “yup, that’s town.”
I’m not saying that. I’m saying a mislynch > misspare, which I don’t think is an arguable point. I would hope we would be comfortable with whatever route we go.
At this point I’m fairly OK with sparing Hectic or Chara, but I’d really rather lynch.
A lot of that perspective follows into towngames, I don't really feel confident in metaing him over what he's done this game but I'd say he generally seems to take a lot more account of motives and perspectives than he's done here, and seems less inclined to make cases and hardpushes than when he's scum based off of that game and Mini 2106.
There is literally no reason to townread this slot, at all, and at this point I kind of just have to accept that people are going to refuse to read into anything but appearance of effort.
I agree that I think townreads are excessive and this slot should never be spared.
I have like a townlean, maybe, though I keep flopping.
In fact my best solve is bingle/farkran but I feel better about bingle dying today, although his recent posting is better but all mechanical so NAI.
If Farkran suddenly becomes viable I’d try there first.
saying. But what is alarming for me is how he's VERY stubborn in all his beliefs/points. He doesn't concede any points to anyone, and always finds a way to disagree. At first, I thought it made no sense for scum!Farkran to enter DAY 2 attacking 3 townreads, but the more I think about it, the more I think scum!Farkran needs to do this if he doesn't want to take the loss, as all of {Chara, Hectic, Replica} are town. Which were the highest townreads entering day 2.
Farkran, I've always been for 4 SPARES.
Well
, mostly the skeletons, but they've even convinced ME. So, we entered day 1 promoting it, and we entered day 2 the same - with some good townreads. So, I don't see why you're trying to draw conclusions from that.
I do not disagree with everyone, but i do disagree with any strategy involving spares. Shortly after i entered this game and studied the setup a little bit, compared to the gamestate we were in (strongly oriented to a Hectic spare), i immediately thought that optimal strategy for scum was sparing themselves or their partner. Doing so would be significantly easier than pushing for mislynches, because you do not have to excuse yourself for being wrong when your scumread flips town. If scum had to be desperate against the lined up spares, all they have to do is killing within the list and promote their partner instead. Desperation would happen when, despite killing all the towniest slot, town still hasn't put scum!A or scum!B in the line-up. I don't know how this could even be argued against. This is not about EV. I am pretty much certain that scum has blended into the spare pushers, and all justifications against this theory are extremely naive. Town is not playing alone, and there's no reason to think that scum are always idiotic. It's not like they would come out and say "Oh, hey there! I'm talking to you, stupid town player(s)! Why don't you do exactly how i ask you to do?". They would go like "Sure thing town, you're doing great! Keep up with the good job!" and in the meanwhile laughing in their pt. The sooner you realize this, the better. Once again, not talking to Hectic specifically here -which incidentally is one of the slots that is promoting the good job done by the town so far- but to everyone who is actually town.
To resume the argument about me being stubborn though, it is true that i also disagree with some of the players pushing for fights that i think would flip town, but i'm way less hostile towards that resolution and i explicitly stated that, now that we are closer to the deadline and i haven't gathered enough consensus about scum!Hectic, i am willing to talk about compromising. Hectic is still my choice of preference, but i wouldn't be against a Chara or Psyche lynch at this point. To a lesser extent, Nacho, because i feel a Nacho flip would generate less info than the others. I would also be a good info lynch to reassess the game's direction, but obviously i'd rather not have to sacrifice myself for that purpose alone when there are better and possibly redflipping options.
In post 1436, Hectic wrote:Isn't the reason Farkran is pushing those 3 BECAUSE they are highly townread? Sure, he won't gain traction with any of those 3 to FIGHT them, but he will cast doubt on SPARING the three of them, which is a good result for scum!Farkran if they're all town. I don't remember the last time he ever conceded a point to any argument you/Replica/Chara/Psyche has presented. I'm not sure if scum!him originally planned to make himself a potential SPARE target today through these arguments though, I think his primary objective would be to derail the SPARE train.
No, i'm not pushing them BECAUSE they are highly townread, and i'm not pushing Replica anymore. I'm pushing Hectic/Chara/Psyche AND now to a lesser extent Nacho because of their interactions with each other. Hectic's progression on Chara does not make sense, and vice versa. I wonder how you could say that scum!me originally planned to make myself a spare target today when i fighted with my heart and soul against any spare route from the moment i replaced in in d1. I do not care about being spared, unless i am the last one in a 4 spared route. I have said multiple times that i'd rather be lynched.
In post 1434, Farkran wrote:We have found a "yup, that's town" level of content in Suji and Sherlock. Unfortunately we found them d1, and one of them was the FN.
It would have been significantly better if we found them later, and the FN (ideally not within those two) was spared d2. In THAT scenario i would have been ok sparing
from d2 onwards
- but even then, during n3 sherlock would probably have been killed too so we would have to rely on good reads in New Home, regardless of sparing or lynching in d4.
if you're of this opinion, then why weren't you okay with SPARING Suji who you regarded as an IC yesterday, and didn't know was our Friendliest of Neighbours?
Sparing d1 just does not make any sense. You do not go for slightly higher EV when you can improve your reads via info. First, you lynch and get VCA info, assess players' read accuracy, etc. Then, and only if you find very strong and specific evidence of players being town, you may want to spare. Not earlier. The whole assumption that sparing with a 2/11 random chance of being correct over sparing in a 2/9, 2/7 or even 2/5 scenario with ADDED INFO, is wrong.
[out of game note: see, even if i strongly disagree with pretty much everything hectic said and we are mutually scumreading each other, i always feel i can talk to him and enjoy the game. I wish i could see more of this in general, and i'm sorry if sometimes i am on the guilty side of aggressivity. At times i try to get on people's nerves on purpose, to test their emotional reactivity - other times, i'm just salty about how things go. But i mean no harm, and i enforce myself to stop before resorting to insults and curses. All of this is regardless of alignments or this game outcome.]
A lot of that perspective follows into towngames, I don't really feel confident in metaing him over what he's done this game but I'd say he generally seems to take a lot more account of motives and perspectives than he's done here, and seems less inclined to make cases and hardpushes than when he's scum based off of that game and Mini 2106.
There is literally no reason to townread this slot, at all, and at this point I kind of just have to accept that people are going to refuse to read into anything but appearance of effort.
I agree that I think townreads are excessive and this slot should never be spared.
This is correct.
In post 1439, Amrun wrote:
In fact my best solve is bingle/farkran but I feel better about bingle dying today, although his recent posting is better but all mechanical so NAI.
If Farkran suddenly becomes viable I’d try there first.
This, on the other hand, is concerning. Not about wanting to lynch me, i have always said that i'd be a better lynch than Bingle. You were the one who disagreed - and this sudden 180° on our lynch order when Bingle conceded about sparing, by voting me no less, is... completely out of the blue for you. I could understand this coming from Hectic or Replica, who think pushing for spares is correct and townsided, but you don't.
What made you change your mind? The only reason i could think of would be that Bingle has no scum motivation to spare Farkran... but this implies both scum!Bingle and scum!Farkran, so... why the order swap?
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:38 am
by Farkran
Oh wait, i think i misread. "If farkran becomes viable" as opposed to a spare resolution, not to a bingle lynch. Nevermind.
First of all, none of the routes are worse than 11v2 mountainous. Second, 11v2 mountainous (note, more townies than we started with) has an observed win rate of 39.5% which is unacceptably low to me. That has nothing to do with EV. Third, if we’re going to win solely off of scumhunting, we would win anyway.
This game isn’t designed to make minimal use of the spare option. It is massively scumsided if you choose to do so. This is not opinion, this is verifiable truth.
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:06 am
by Bingle
None of the routes are worse than mountainous. Spare one actually is worse than 11v2 mountainous, so I guess congrats on that?
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:11 am
by Bingle
I would unheal Farkran atp, tbh, but that tag is a lot of work on a phone.
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:13 am
by Farkran
Run tests on the other routes as well. If you take only EV into account, results will be roughly balanced. But i think flip info is superior to this particular EV difference in balancing.
When you talk about observed winrate, you mean statistical analysis, not gross random probability, correct? I'd be interested in reading some of that data. Besides, i also think it'd be a bit biased because, mostly, only good players are interested in playing mountainous. If we ran a 11v2 mountainous newbie matrix, results would be vastly different imo.
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:20 am
by Amrun
In post 1442, Farkran wrote:Oh wait, i think i misread. "If farkran becomes viable" as opposed to a spare resolution, not to a bingle lynch. Nevermind.
Yes, I still strongly prefer to lynch Bingle.
@Bingle: I’m really fine with mountainous so it’s whatever. One spare doesn’t bother me at all since it was confirmed town. I just don’t care about that very much.
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:30 am
by Bingle
In post 1447, Amrun wrote:@Bingle: I’m really fine with mountainous so it’s whatever. One spare doesn’t bother me at all since it was confirmed town. I just don’t care about that very much.
What part of: if we had two more townies than we started the game with we would still be EXPECTED to lose this as mountainous is a difficult concept? Being fine with mountainous is okay, I guess (although maybe don’t sign up for games you don’t want to play ) but actively screwing over the town because you don’t like the main conceit of the game really isn’t.
In post 1442, Farkran wrote:Oh wait, i think i misread. "If farkran becomes viable" as opposed to a spare resolution, not to a bingle lynch. Nevermind.
Yes, I still strongly prefer to lynch Bingle.
@Bingle: I’m really fine with mountainous so it’s whatever. One spare doesn’t bother me at all since it was confirmed town. I just don’t care about that very much.
Is there none in {hectic, chara, psyche, nacho} you would be interested in pursuing today? I guess not, since they are your highest townreads...
Let's talk more about bingle then. I know where you are going to look if bingle flips scum - what will you do if he flips town?
) but actively screwing over the town because you don’t like the main conceit of the game really isn’t.