Mini Normal 2146: Cute Pets Game Over, Town wins

[Battle Mage]

If a game had watcher and doc. Prana woudl still of died as to balance scum would need a strongman

i think scum are much more in need of a smartman

[notscience]

I don’t think we can know who hypothetical prs targeted unless they claim.

[Battle Mage]

I don’t think we can know who hypothetical prs targeted unless they claim.

we can make pretty logical deductions. Why are you fishing for more claims here??

[notscience]

I’m not fishing for claims I’m saying your definitives aren’t as definitive as you are saying they are

[bob3141]

dude, ive explained this already. if there's a doc, they would have protected prana. that is obvious. doc has higher odds of stopping an NK than rb when the target is highly predictable.

I don't know how you've managed to get this so wrong.

Explain who trys to protect prana. When most think he is scum and thus wouldnt protect him.


A doc does not keep someone who they think is scum alive.

12 players alive and one is prana

11 players

3-4 called for his lynch regardless of his claim.
3-4 only didnt vote because of his claim.

[Battle Mage]

I’m not fishing for claims I’m saying your definitives aren’t as definitive as you are saying they are

what do you think of the people who are fishing for claims, even quite openly?

[brassherald]

VoteCount 2.01

Hoopla (2):

CooLDoG, Hiraki

Gypyx (1):

Battle Mage

Battle Mage(1):

notscience

Not Voting (8):

Gypyx, Emperor flippyNips, Hoopla, PranaDevil, UnaBombaH, AGar, bob3141, Klick

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
You have (expired on 2020-07-02 10:05:00) until the end of Day 2.[/color][/area]

[Hoopla]

WARNING! WARNING! SETUP SPEC POST INCOMING!

---

so, after last night's fascinating twist of affairs, i took it upon myself to do a quick scan for watcher setups over the last two years in 13p mini normal games, to see what kind of setups they existed in. generally speaking (as someone pointed out earlier), watchers and docs are an overpowered combo that mods and game designers are sure to avoid, OR if they are to use that combo, ensure scum has significant counterbalancing power. this post is from the normal queue:

/in to mod a pre-designed mini

given this setup has been handcrafted by the normal team, i'm not expecting that maxim to be subverted, as such, no-kill last night makes prana's continued existence highly suspicious.

here are all the setups that feature a watcher of some description. i've also listed all the blocking/protection power in the game so you can get a feel for how mods deal with including watchers in setups:

2137 -

1-Shot Watcher

,

Jailkeeper

2132 -

Watcher

,

1-Shot Jailkeeper

2114 -

Combined Watcher/Voyeur

,

JOAT (STR/RB/RS)

2092 -

Even-Night-Watcher

,

1-Shot-Doctor

2060 -

Watcher

,

Backup Watcher

2053 -

Watcher

,

2-Shot Jailkeeper

2045 -

Watcher

,

Backup Watcher

2035 -

Non-Consecutive Night Watcher

,

2-Shot Loud Doctor

,

2-Shot Roleblocker

2015 -

JOAT (RC/RB/Watch)

so, what does this all mean?

firstly, mods generally don't give towns watchers + protective roles - only 1 game from 9 has a town watcher/protective combo.

a town jailkeeper/town watcher combo happened once in 2137, but given flippy and prana are both claiming results, and scum should be killing one of the two outed PR's, it means a JK must have blocked the killer, or saved a kill elsewhere. in a flippy/prana town universe, i find it unlikely scum don't kill a PR or block/manipulate PR results (scum

has

to have something if both prana/flippy are town). maybe a no-kill gambit? absurd! there's just too many assumptions.

a simpler conclusion, occam's razor if you like, would be for prana to be scum. if he is, it means protective roles can exist in the game, giving us many more possible explanations for a no-kill night (and we need one!). sure, a bullet-proof/commuter type role could exist, but i find the setup possibilities too narrow if both prana/flippy are town. it's more likely one of them is scum, and i think prana makes way more sense.

i'll likely be voting him today, but want to do some wagon analysis/stuff not focused on him first.

[Battle Mage]

dude, ive explained this already. if there's a doc, they would have protected prana. that is obvious. doc has higher odds of stopping an NK than rb when the target is highly predictable.

I don't know how you've managed to get this so wrong.

Explain who trys to protect prana. When most think he is scum and thus wouldnt protect him.


A doc does not keep someone who they think is scum alive.

12 players alive and one is prana

11 players

3-4 called for his lynch regardless of his claim.
3-4 only didnt vote because of his claim.

Dude, I've given you an example - me. I was the first person to call Prana-scum yesterday, but when he claims a PR and we let him have the first night to try and get a result, I'm obviously going to protect him if I'm a doc.

From your numbers above, you have 3-5 players who did not think he was scum, and if doctor, would have protected him.
Of those who didn't vote because of his claim, which presumably includes me, they would have protected him.
And even of those who called for his lynch regardless of the claim, if they have any sense, they would protect the person who, if town, would be an obvious target for scum to kill.

I'm not saying there is or isn't a doc, or confirming whether I am one. I'm saying IF there was a doctor, they SHOULD HAVE been protecting Prana last night. That is a fact.

I don't even really know why you care so much about this, but hopefully you're taking on board what i'm telling you.

[Battle Mage]

the post by Hoopla appears to be excellent, encourage all to read carefully, as I shall

[Battle Mage]

i think if scum deliberately no-killed last night to pursue a mislynch on Prana today, they are even less intelligent than I thought.

It's a good analysis to be sure - makes me think Hoopla may be town, as lots of effort. But, not enough there to make me want to lynch Prana today. Mini normal games are a lot more wacky nowadays, and crazy shit like Nips claimed is standard fayre. A claimed investigative is a claimed investigative, I'd rather play the WIFOM game for one more night, and look more widely than this (which will be necessary regardless).

[notscience]

I’d follow hoops to the end of the earth

[Hoopla]

an aside: if prana is scum, he's almost certainly a watcher or a JOAT with a watch ability, as he claimed nobody targeted flippy on N1. a doctor, or any random PR could instantly disprove that claim. so, prana isn't a vanilla goon if scum.

[Battle Mage]

I’d follow hoops to the end of the earth

why don't you?

[Battle Mage]

an aside: if prana is scum, he's almost certainly a watcher or a JOAT with a watch ability, as he claimed nobody targeted flippy on N1. a doctor, or any random PR could instantly disprove that claim. so, prana isn't a vanilla goon if scum.

I already hypothesised this earlier. Although to be clear, it's probably, not definitely the case. Prana-scum might not be so cerebral as to have thought ahead when he claimed about the risk (and if Prana is scum, outting another PR wouldn't be the worst thing in the world).

[Hoopla]

I would suggest any roleblocker that succeeded doesn't come right out of the gate and say who they are, as trading the Roleblocker for the scum would be a bad idea.

i also disagree with this. a town roleblocker should claim now, as its highly likely they're responsible for the no-kill, and i believe we can probably break the game wide open from PoE if we have a prob-guilty (and prob-inno) to work with today.

scum won't kill with the same team member twice, so it's not likely a town RB will succeed again. that info is more useful in the game now.

[notscience]

And lack of a claim reinforces the protective idea

[Battle Mage]

I would suggest any roleblocker that succeeded doesn't come right out of the gate and say who they are, as trading the Roleblocker for the scum would be a bad idea.

i also disagree with this. a town roleblocker should claim now, as its highly likely they're responsible for the no-kill, and i believe we can probably break the game wide open from PoE if we have a prob-guilty (and prob-inno) to work with today.

scum won't kill with the same team member twice, so it's not likely a town RB will succeed again. that info is more useful in the game now.

I'm not sure either way on the idea of RB claiming - there's probably some merit in it.

I am however, confident that an RB claim will not "break the game wide open from PoE".

[Hoopla]

And lack of a claim reinforces the protective idea

indeed.

has anyone here heard of hypocopping before? for the newer players: this used to a tactic common in early 00's meta when cops were expected in setups. the play is; at the start of d2, each player makes a post "

if i am a cop, i investigated X and got an inno

" or "

if i am a cop, i investigated Y and got an inno

" etc. this way, it allows the cop to claim its results in case it is killed later, without actually fully revealing itself on d2.

~~

as far as i'm concerned a town doctor is as good as a direct counterclaim to prana's claim. so, we

could

get a doc to claim confirming prana as scum, but! there's a way we can get knowledge of a doctor existing in the setup without actually outing a doc.

the plan? we do a variant of hypocopping, where each player claims "

not a BP/commuter/jailkeeper

"

if each player in the game is not a BP/commuter/JK, this proves the kill was prevented by a doc, essentially proving prana-scum AND the doc is still hidden. this forces scum to accept prana's death OR fakeclaim one of those roles linking them with prana. if scum do fakeclaim one of those roles, it means they've essentially lover-ised themselves with prana, as catching either one of them proves the other is scum. scum would be suicidal to do so.

if a bp/commuter/jailkeeper

is

claimed, we can decide on a case-by-case basis what to do with them then (whether they full claim or not). they're highly likely town, though.

a town roleblocker should straight up claim their result now, which is why i haven't included it in these formulations. for this plan to work, it also requires everyone being on board.

[PranaDevil]

VOTE: Hoopla

Still trying to out PRs day 2.

Town would be stupid to let her live considering she helped out two PRs yesterday. Both of whom are clearly only alive thanks to whatever protective role aided us.

And before some fool goes "but look at get setup spec post". Think about this: Scum already know which roles are true, and which aren't. They know I'm town, and which side Flippy falls on, without needing any spec. So if said spec is useful for them to mention, because it's weird,, they will bring it up.

Una and myself played a game with two killers, an ascetic role that allowed day talk (that literally did nothing) and an Innocent Child. Set-up spec is a waste of time, and something scum can use to manipulate stuff to their advantage by pretending to be a town leader.

I don't buy any of it. Hoopla was trying to out PRs day 1 constantly, and even now she seems to want people to out themselves.

[notscience]

I second hooplas notion.

[AGar]

Hi. Just got here.

We should lynch Klick.

I blocked him last night.

VOTE: Klick

[notscience]

Interesting.

[notscience]

What made you pick her agar

[Hoopla]

Hi. Just got here.

We should lynch Klick.

I blocked him last night.

VOTE: Klick

nice.

this game could be over soon. i have a D1-analysis post brewing in the lab at the moment, so no quicklynches plz.