Mafiascum.net

Votecount 3.2

Luca Blight(1)

~ ejjinami(17)

ejjinami(1)

~ bugspray(7)

bugspray(1)

~ Frogsterking(9)


Not Voting (6): OutWorldER(0), Gamma Emerald(3), Galron(0), Lunar Martian(1), joqiza(0), Luca Blight(0)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-22 18:03:48)

FLAVOR

frame 23 out of 19035

bugspray wrote:the cat muscle dude says his role is a counterpart to mine and i have no fucking clue what that's even supposed to mean

don’t make a big deal out of it. I literally can’t explain it without claiming
IF it’s absolutely necessary, I’ll claim in the neighbor chat
if not, I’d prefer to avoid it

I said that it will make perfect sense and it will. I already crumbed hard enough
Just trust me on that one and if you’re dissatisfied with my answer later on, . I won’t be opposed.

VOTE: bugs

Also bugs in what world would flipping me clear you?

I'm writing up my original theory now, from before I knew traitors were informed of their scum team. Maybe someone else will find it useful for something.

I think I got mixed up with another completed Normal I just read through on the site which contained a traitor. What happened in that game was that it was the SCUM TEAM that were unsure of the traitor, not the other way around. I'm not sure yet what this is doing to my theory but again it probably doesn't hold up but maybe it will be helpful for something. In this case I'm expecting Momrangal may have been "Informed" of the identity of the PR in the hood which would explain the N1 kill hitting the bodyguard who was not the intended target.

Ejji if I'm hearing you right then in your world the scum team is most likely Luca + OutWorldER.

Assume there's at least one Mafia member in the neighbor chat.

eji you're making less sense than i ever have

In post 1430, Lunar Martian wrote:Assume there's at least one Mafia member in the neighbor chat.

No

In post 1429, Frogsterking wrote: Ejji if I'm hearing you right then in your world the scum team is most likely Luca + OutWorldER.

currently that would be my bet

bugspray wrote:eji you're making less sense than i ever have

pffft
is that an accomplishment? xD
thank you

In post 1430, Lunar Martian wrote:Assume there's at least one Mafia member in the neighbor chat.

is this a request or a statement of your thinking?

Okay. My understanding of the game state in terms of claims after reading through:

- Bugspray claimed Town Back-up Neighbor
- Bugspray is now in the neighborhood (once Amélie died)
- There's at least one other person in the neighborhood (is it ejjnami / the Trendall slot? Based on the most recent posts)
- I saw a post where Bugspray mentioned there's an investigative in the hood that claimed a green check on my slot?

Just want to make sure I am on the same page in terms of mechs here. Not asking anyone else to claim, just like... want to make sure there's nothing else I need to know / make sure I'm operating with the same information as everyone else. A bit confusing on the readthrough since there's a fair amount of content.

that's a good knowledge base imo

Okay, thx.

Going to go back and read the game again from the top. I kinda skimmed the first time to just get the main idea and my thoughts on everyone are all like, half-formed at the moment.

In general I probably will try to weight social reads over mechanics. I don't feel eminently comfortable doing setup spec on this site, I know basically nothing about Mafiascum Normal Game Review, we don't have that kind of thing on EpicMafia. We just throw whatever roles in we want and let it ride. That said, I've played one forum game on EM that had a town traffic analyst, and that game also had a mafia neighborizer. It wouldn't really surprise me if there was a mafia in the hood, though I wouldn't feel comfortable assuming that as a starting point.

:thumbs_up:

Alright here was my overnight theory:

In post 132, Momrangal wrote:The list also scores high in neurotics which means

town will see red hearings where they don't exist and scum will be hyper aware of the game state, and what they are putting out.

I do think that frogster decided to do this thing before he drew his role, but the way he's moving forward with the play is pushing the game in a good direction

In a similar vein, NPOM also pushes the game in a positive direction and the only real concern I have there is his desire to be apart of a townbloc prematurely.

I'm also town reading Grendel for his stance on townblocking this early

In post 62, Frogsterking wrote:I think Lunar Martian noticed something was off about NoPowerOverMe's post because they're super-conscious of being partners because it's new. Similar to my opinion of NoPowerOverMe's evasiveness and lack of clarity I find Lunar's description here about what he was thinking to be evasive in a way that also has a lot of potential to be AI.

You really think they, as they as scum would do this? It makes no sense to soft bus a partner this early on when they could be called on it, and forced to get into a harder stance against their partner. I think that's indicative of t/t or if they are scum, they are early on looking for ways to push what seems to be an easy target early on because of how disagreeable NPOM Is

I'm also moee than certain that NPOMS disagreeableness is NAI

I interpreted this as "@town don't look for red herrings they're in your imagination @traitor read my messages I'm aware of what I'm writing."

In post 716, Momrangal wrote:

In post 698, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I'd like to go for Trendall or OutWorldER. Failing that, NoPower or Frog.

VOTE: Trendall

This bugs me

The first thing that struck me. There's 0 follow up to this comment.

At first I thought it might be a message to Lunar, who in this theory is the traitor, to join the push on Bugs today. I looked to see if there was an out-of-context vote on Bugs later and there was:

In post 828, Lunar Martian wrote:

In post 827, Trendall wrote:I don't mind voting bugspray but I don't think it's the best elimination. They could be maf tho.

Grendel you're right in that I'd prefer not to compromise, but I will. The quoted post makes me particularly fine with voting for bugspray. Still prefer ER or Trendall though.

VOTE: bugspray

That should be 5 votes, or E-2.

Weird. Then I gave it a second thought and started wondering if it was a different message to Lunar, intended to be read as

THIS (your post, or you), BUGS, AND ME.

Then I keep going and see Lunar scum casing Trendall on D2, as though Lunar had given the message a second thought as well and come to a similar conclusion.

In post 821, Momrangal wrote:VOTE: Lunar,

Weird vote,

______________

I'm NOT going to get into any of the associative tells between Bugs and Lunar that don't directly apply to my theory. The whole voting and unvoting thing and suddenly FoSing each other is worth looking into separately IMO.

In post 462, bugspray wrote:im very scared of Luca because I can't read him and remember him rolling scum one time and believing he looked exactly like town!Luca and trying to elim me at any time is usually not very controversial (meta me if you're into that)

and neither is wanting to elim lunar which makes me very

npim here is reminding me increasingly of town!formerfish

I thought this was Bug's first attempt to soft to Lunar they're on the same team, following up Mom's soft.

In post 547, bugspray wrote:Frog that's a pretty strange leading question. What are you trying to get out of it?

Bugs is defending Lunar here in response to a question I lobbed at Lunar, indicating Lunar is already on Bugs radar.

In post 555, bugspray wrote:sounds good VOTE: lunar martian
that's l-1

..Then Bugs votes Lunar. I thought it could be a late bus attempt as Luca pointed out or a "well if the traitor is just going to vote me better they go than I".

In post 562, bugspray wrote:calling my previous mention of lunar in 462 a strong tr is real reachy. a lot of the time i just have difficulty reading slots and pretend they don't exist and up until recently for me that was lunar

A LOT of defensiveness around this point. That makes me suspect the point is incorrect in concept but hits close enough to home to motivate Bugs to be defensive about it compared to other accusations. Bugs has clearly been aware of the presence of Lunar in this game for some time now (since at least 462 and defending them in 547 which I quoted above) so I believe Bugs is covering something up in this post.

Bugs also seems to be reacting heavily to this traitor point currently (D3) as well.

In post 567, bugspray wrote:

In post 566, Lunar Martian wrote:If needed I can claim, but I prefer not to obviously. I'm not really willing to claim when half the people voting me haven't stated any reasons though. There's time, why don't the people voting me try to talk to me a little?

hey lunar what's your role?

I read this as Bugs trying to get the traitor to stop voting them by reminding them they're on the same team, or in my original theory to reread a little bit and check for the softs.

In post 578, bugspray wrote:lunar martian are you spiteful?

I read this the same as above.

VOTE: Bugspray

i accept no other substitutes for an elim this day.

Bugs immedietly going after eiji for not making sense while also failing to actually point anything AI in that strikes me as scum desperately clutching onto to LHF.

- not SvS with NPOM? (voted him in #376, when the thread was in literal chaos).

Most of Lunar’s content is just... straight to the point. They explained things pretty much only when they needed to and just focused on doing their own thing the majority of the time.
More often than not, I found that that’s townie behavior.
The main strategy as scum is to just... push someone to get a mis-lynch + explain their reads so that people can town-read them for it
Lunar showed multiple times that they CAN explain their reads well (#1030, #1033, #1183, #1301, #1335, etc). They had no trouble writing longer analysis, acting emotional nor strongly criticizing people who scum-read them.

Them not doing that and just poking people here and there for the majority of D1 was most definitely something they chose, not sth they were unable to do.

Being able to get town-read easily, yet not giving a crap is townie.
Being able to vote on easy mis-lynches, yet keeping their options open and checking what they could do by changing their vote, is townie.
Voting ONLY on valid wagons and ignoring any obvtown wagons from the very start, is townie.

Their early behavior just makes a lot of sense coming from a townie who
-only talks about the things they consider “important”
-literally couldn’t write anything “important” because they weren’t able to get confident reads that early (so they just kept poking people here and there)

I mostly think Town is way off-base and Mafia is sitting and laughing at us.

#436
D1 suspects before this post: NPOM, Frogger, amelie, trendal and bugspray.
IF Lunar is scum, there can be only 1 scum on that list.

Being unsatisfied with the thread-state, constantly poking around (changing his vote) and not just easily settling on a mis-lynch wagon is townie.

Lunar’s progression early on just makes a lot of sense from a town pov.

In post 529, Lunar Martian wrote:My aims are finding the Mafia. OWER is a fine vote. I think Luca is better. There's plenty of time.

I don't like that you're trying to blatantly manipulate my vote into being on one of the popular trains.

That was written after Frogger’s wall, when Lunar was getting heavily scum-read.
Not being afraid to strongly criticize someone who was pretty much lock-gowned by everyone is a good sign.

In post 588, Lunar Martian wrote:I'm being pushed to claim without any reason why people think I'm Mafia other than I wasn't posting for a few days while I was away. If that's pretty typical of this site just kill me now and I'll go elsewhere.

locktown
This is genuine. Mentioning leaving the forum is not sth people lie about.
This obviously hints to them genuinely not understanding the scum-reads on him, which generally comes from town more often than scum.
Being so “ok” with dying isn’t common for scum either.
like, just c’mon

In post 594, Lunar Martian wrote:

In post 590, Luca Blight wrote:And if you’re not gonna bother to engage with me about your thoughts then what do you expect me (or anyone else who SR’s you) to do here exactly?

You’re crying woe is me but not pushing in any direction. Have any of your reads changed recently? How do you feel about a Bugs elim?

Don't ask questions I've already answered. Read what I've written already. This isn't real engagement. You aren't doing anything. You're trying to look busy.

good reaction under pressure. It really feels like he was genuinely frustrated with the push on him + genuinely unwilling to “comply” in order to get town-read

This is not the attitude of someone whose only goal is to survive

The rest of their posts are just salty. They aren’t good and reading them makes even my head hurt but, considering his play style, they’re probably NAI.

In post 1331, Lunar Martian wrote:Frogster as someone who seems incredibly prone to confirmation bias, I think maybe you should be extra careful with reaction tests. Either you are a Mafia God who basically solved the game Day 1, or you saw exactly what you wanted to see from that test. I still think you're more likely to be Town than Mafia,

but I feel like you're verging on being a liability.

another really good post

Considering that Lunar is a player that only writes what he needs to, without bothering with fluff or tiny details, calling Frogger a “liability” shouldn’t come from scum imo.
If frogger’s reads are incorrect, this post is obviously townie.
If frogger’s reads are correct and Lunar was precisely aware of that, I don’t think he would have even thought of using that word. This would be getting close to writing a personal insult for no reason (from his pov).
This should ONLY come from someone who doesn’t have TMI imo.

Lunar is getting close to lock town imo. His posts are largely imperfect but there were multiple hints towards him just not trying to fake them... and I really can’t imagine some of the posts I quoted above being fake

In post 1441, OutWorldER wrote:Bugs immedietly going after eiji for not making sense while also failing to actually point anything AI in that strikes me as scum desperately clutching onto to LHF.

bug’s did seem pretty unhappy with my posts in the neighbor chat. I wrote quite a bit there before the thread opened
You don’t see it because you can’t see it

the vote is bad but likely NAI

The fact that Bugs is neither outting what Ejji said in the hood nor voting someone else is incongruent, unless Ejji's wack-shit was a plan that involves Bugs pushing her in-thread.

It suggests to me that Bugs is neither collaborating with Ejji nor I but instead collaborating with some unknown third party I'm unaware of.

eji's shit was so incomprehensibly wack and i abrely understand it myself but i don't think town ever says it

Now that I know traitors are informed of the scum team, Lunar's townslip on D2 holds IMO.

Frogsterking wrote:The fact that Bugs is neither outting what Ejji said in the hood nor voting someone else is incongruent, unless Ejji's wack-shit was a plan that involves Bugs pushing her in-thread.

It suggests to me that Bugs is neither collaborating with Ejji nor I but instead collaborating with some unknown third party I'm unaware of.

what I said in the hood involved me crumbing my role and crumbling my guess of bug’s role
he couldn’t explain it without giving scum info about our roles and I can’t do it either

The whole point of all of that was asking gamma to claim before me and bugs (in a mass claim) because I hoped to catch them on a slip. That was the extent of my “grand plan”.

just hush. You don;t have the full picture so, please, pretend as if it never happened.

and jsut to make it clear, my ideas about the setup were incorrect so this doesn’t apply anymore.

In post 1445, bugspray wrote:eji's shit was so incomprehensibly wack and i abrely understand it myself but i don't think town ever says it

1442 is a pocket attempt on Lunar fypov then?

I guess I'm not understanding your world right now. You think that ejji is trying to bus Luca to win the endgame?

In post 1445, bugspray wrote:eji's shit was so incomprehensibly wack and i abrely understand it myself but i don't think town ever says it

...........
you know
I didn’t think it was possible to make me doubt my scum-read on luca that easily
dude, you’re literally being 2-dimensional

My “PLAN” was literally just asking gamma to claim first

oh noooooooo, that’s soooo scummy