Mafiascum.net

Austeritys idea is,, interesting, but I worry that with likely three scumteams (and both munitions co and the unflipped faction being mostly/entirely alive) it's incredibly likely that the top voted town player is actually scum. If the scumteam communicates it's relatively easy to rig.

Also, it doesn't take into account bulletproofs which would completely break the chain. There's bound to be a bulletproof somewhere along the line and the moment one is hit then there will be two players alive and so we need the top two to be town.

Basically, nice idea on the surface, but it wouldn't work.

Also I didn't really like Lovebird taking time to realise the third shot suggested a third scumteam. It felt artificial and like playing dumb.

am I the only one thinking we probably have a SK rather than a third scumteam?

it would make so much sense for a SK to be the strongman, too. and that would mean they shot brie. so in this case it's likely one or multiple of the people scumreading Taly are munitions mafia.

I had that thought too but I remember that in the sign-up thread xyzzy said all anti-town factions had at least 2 players or something like that

"there will be one or more non-town factions, and at least one of those factions will have at least two players who know each others' identities."

If anything, I would say this the existence of a SK.

But then again xyzzy said in our role PMs something about what public knowledge we had changing so maybe we should ask

In post 1455, Ausuka wrote:"there will be one or more non-town factions, and at least one of those factions will have at least two players who know each others' identities."

If anything, I would say this

suggests

the existence of a SK.

Ah okay that's where that came from, "at least one", suggesting that other factions could have only one player. It makes sense since we've had no third faction flips when by pure numbers we'd expect something.

In post 1456, Davsto wrote:But then again xyzzy said in our role PMs something about what public knowledge we had changing so maybe we should ask

@xyzzy: is the info about what roles and potential factions etc in this game in the sign-up thread still confirmed to be true?

Okay it's gonna take me a little bit to make a proper post because I need to rethink about a few things in this game (I was blindsided by Taly flipping scum, for a start, he was pretty much my strongest townread), but that's incoming

In post 1449, Lovebird wrote:

In post 1430, Ausuka wrote:light_ganski
Theta Alpine
wingedcatgirl

^ I'm likely shooting in this pool today.

I agree

I think this is a fine pool except light is still literally the only person to shoot munitions scum and the way she shot N_M absolutely doesn't look like a buddy bussing to me.

Dav do you have any strong reads from how people played yesterday? I'm 95% sure I'm not going to be firing the next bullet today but I still really dislike how narrow it feels your focus has been near the end of yesterday & today

Echo bay grits might be gone btw? Xyzzy was posting chunks of flavor for the company when a member died yesterday and it looks like at least one of those chunks got repeated with the flip today.

If we have 2 scumteams with 2 gons and 1 traitor, a single SK seems to be a bit to less scum. (Combining the ideas of a scumteam 1 gone and the SK)
If the scumteam Echo Bay Grits is gone, Tally shoot MoI, because she didn't flip strongmen.
That means one team shoot TheBrie with a strongman and one Taly.
Scum knows if the team is gone, so they have to hunt for the last Gritplayer if he is stil alive, if not then for the SK.
Both lone scum or SK have to hunt for the other scum to be the one alive.

So Grit or SK is not our problem.

Okay first thoughts:

Regarding the nightkills: this implies to me 2 teams and a serial killer as opposed to three teams. Firstly, the flavour implies this; we already know of grits and munitions companies and the existence of an 'executor' (which does not imply a second team in my opinion). Secondly, considering the number of relatively baseless/random shots people have taken I find it statistically unlikely that we haven't hit a third scumteam, whereas only one serial killer would have to slip through.

Secondly whilst I like Austerity's suggestion I don't see any reason that scum would co-operate? Firstly, if we're considering each team has 3-4 members it would suggest there's still several alive, and it would be more beneficial to them to shoot outside of themselves and get shot if we did this than waiting patiently to get shot or shoot their partners? And secondly, if there IS a third team it is possible the teams already have a majority in combination in which case we actually need the scum teams to shoot at each other in order to win this (and scum will need to shoot each other to win as well), so they would have no incentive to shoot at OUR reads but their own.

I feel like if there's any unflipped/multi-shot bulletproofs they are more likely to be the SK? I think a one-shot BP SK is a bit too disadvantaged for this setup

Is it in our interest to search for the SK?

It's in our interest to get all anti-town factions and players but actively SK-hunting is probably easier when we've killed off the surviving team!scum

My issue right now is that I'm struggling (again) to get proper town reads

wait are there night vigs in a game with all day vigs

The fact that xyzzy explicitly suggests BPs and strongmen in the rules but no other special roles suggests not

Though they have said (1458) that not all mechanics are public so it's not impossible

I'd bet on SK > third team > vig though (over vig on that, over third team based on my explanation in 1463)

In post 1461, Gammagooey wrote:Echo bay grits might be gone btw? Xyzzy was posting chunks of flavor for the company when a member died yesterday and it looks like at least one of those chunks got repeated with the flip today.

I would believe it but I'd stay woke here. Pretty sure flavour is just flavour, and contains no actual hints about game state.

SK assessment is pretty good. I actually feel like Grits and Munitions are the only active antitown "factions".

In post 1460, Gammagooey wrote:Dav do you have any strong reads from how people played yesterday? I'm 95% sure I'm not going to be firing the next bullet today but I still really dislike how narrow it feels your focus has been near the end of yesterday & today

Depressingly enough the main thing I had in my head at the end of yesterday was a growing scumread on TheBrie, as their issue with my push on Mom apparently being the reasoning itself yet waiting until Mom flipped to push me seemed opportunistic (i.e. using the town flip to make it easier to push me) but I guess I'm wrong there lmao. Lovebird has been rubbing me the wrong way a bit so I'll have to give a look over there.

Nothing else really significant except continued town reads on ganski and you. Probably need to give a look over to Ausuka because I did place them in a scumread (albeit weak-weak) and I'd like to look more into what my gut felt.

Hi. I think I'll shoot light ganki right now

Thoughts?

No thanks I'm in the middle of writing two major posts