Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:10 pm
by Amrun
In post 1450, GuiltyLion wrote:Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol
That’s why?! That’s funny.
The more DogWatch posts, the more I tonally think she’s town, but I don’t really have anything to say about the posts she mentioned. Except I agree that scum was pushing me (somewhere, I need to analyze with new flips in mind); and that Creature’s lynch was probably pretty safe and blend-y for scum.
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:54 pm
by DrDolittle
Hell[ooooooooooo amrun
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:58 pm
by AaronFrost
In post 1425, DogWatch wrote:I'm not so convinced scum was on that wagon tbh. It was the amrun wagon that felt more scummy to me, not creature's.
amrun [7] - Menalque,
Datisi
,
Iconeum
,
AaronFrost
,
Dogwatch
,
GuiltyLion
,
Creature
Creature [8] - Salamence20,
GuiltyLion
,
Datisi
, Amrun,
AaronFrost
,
Dogwatch
,
Iconeum
, alimdia [LYNCH]
Can you break your reasons for this down for me? Because most of the people on the Amrun wagon were also on the Creature wagon.
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:00 pm
by AaronFrost
In post 1402, Datisi wrote:Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~
What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.
In post 1413, DogWatch wrote:I explained my hesitancy to vote him at the time, and I also explained why I eventually moved from you to him, so I don't see why you find anything about it 'forced.'
This is like, my entire point though. You made very sure to explain to us throughout that you were scumreading Creature. Then when a wagon started on him, you made very sure to explain to us that you were not sure what to do. Then when you voted him, you made very sure to tell us why you were finally voting him. It reads like a mechanical and crafted/calculated scum trajectory, not organic town doing shit to try to generate information.
In post 1414, DogWatch wrote:I also think it's a pretty comical accusation from someone who jumped on the amrun wagon the way you did.
"comical", why use that word instead of something that might describe my alignment? You're more focused on discrediting the content of what I'm saying than evaluating me. And are we really still talking about that damn amrun vote when there's been probably 1000 posts since then?
In post 1419, DogWatch wrote:Did you not have very similar situation with alimdia when you voted amrun? I don't think these circumstances are as different as you think.
It would have been similar if
- I stated I was scumreading alimdia throughout the game, similar to how I had (I later changed my mind but that's kinda irrelevant to this)
- Menalque or some other person started an alimdia wagon and it got 3-4 votes
- I didn't vote alimdia and made a post declaring how unsure I was about moving my vote, despite the fact that I had proclaimed a strong scumread on him earlier in the game
- I waited until basically a day before deadline before finally voting alimdia
- Alimdia flipped town
It sounds like if we lynch amrun and they flip town, then the people on both wagons are very likely to be at least 2 scum.
However, if we lynch amrun and they flip scum, then the people in both are unlikely to be scum, or at least only one.
Finally, I think the town gun should claim if they are a Night 1 or Night 2 gun. It's basically a innocent child if nobody CC's
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:49 pm
by alimdia
uh those quotes I had them saved in Q+ and they accidentally got posted, lemme get to them ....
In post 1419, DogWatch wrote:Did you not have very similar situation with alimdia when you voted amrun? I don't think these circumstances are as different as you think.
It would have been similar if
- I stated I was scumreading alimdia throughout the game, similar to how I had (I later changed my mind but that's kinda irrelevant to this)
- Menalque or some other person started an alimdia wagon and it got 3-4 votes
- I didn't vote alimdia and made a post declaring how unsure I was about moving my vote, despite the fact that I had proclaimed a strong scumread on him earlier in the game
- I waited until basically a day before deadline before finally voting alimdia
- Alimdia flipped town
Oh yeah, lets bring up how you changed your mind after being on 2 wagons
At that point your case against me was weakened by that you had no choice but to change your mind on me
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:08 pm
by alimdia
In post 1450, GuiltyLion wrote:Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol
This is why meta sucks... And god if people use 2nd hand meta..
@GL, thoughts on DW's post 1418?
Love it when 2 SRs VS each other
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:13 pm
by alimdia
In post 1455, alimdia wrote:
It sounds like if we lynch amrun and they flip town, then the people on both wagons are very likely to be at least 2 scum.
However, if we lynch amrun and they flip scum, then the people in both are unlikely to be scum, or at least only one.
Finally, I think the town gun should claim if they are a Night 1 or Night 2 gun. It's basically a innocent child if nobody CC's
Other than this, I think pushing DW, texcat or GL is the way to go today.
In post 1402, Datisi wrote:Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~
What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.
The reaction in 1399. You'd have ez TR's to gain. And coming in the day wondering if the kill was made by scum or Town (when it's much more likely both were made by scum) sounds like a ~townslip~ to me.
Plus, that whole part about "figuring out if Pret's been shot by scum or Town" and listing 7 people he was suspecting feels a bit like both fake busywork and insincere, since one of Creature's last pushes was you.
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:35 pm
by Datisi
In post 1455, alimdia wrote:Finally, I think the town gun should claim if they are a Night 1 or Night 2 gun. It's basically a innocent child if nobody CC's
Also I don't think we should have the Town gun out, at least not yet?
In post 1402, Datisi wrote:Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~
What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.
The reaction in 1399. You'd have ez TR's to gain. And coming in the day wondering if the kill was made by scum or Town (when it's much more likely both were made by scum) sounds like a ~townslip~ to me.
Plus, that whole part about "figuring out if Pret's been shot by scum or Town" and listing 7 people he was suspecting feels a bit like both fake busywork and insincere, since one of Creature's last pushes was you.
So because Creature was scumreading me that means everything I do is fake and insincere? That logic might hold up if Creature was still in the game, but he's not. And even if he was, his read on me wouldn't effect how I play the game.
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:40 am
by Something_Smart
In post 1450, GuiltyLion wrote:Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol
I need to reread ISOs and a lot of D1 with the Creature/Pretentious flips in mind,
and frankly that's not gonna happen for the rest of today so expect real stuff from me tomorrow
can more people engage with my DogWatch reasoning and her thoughts in 1425 and 1426? idk if scum would suggest that no scum were on the Creature wagon, that's a little out of left field
. It was the amrun wagon that felt more scummy to me, not creature's.
Okay, why?
In post 1426, DogWatch wrote:tex and menal ping me most currently. I don't know what to think about SS yet but he is a possibility. If there's any scum on creature's wagon, I'd lean towards Icon. I don't think DDL is scum fwiw.
That gives 2 scum in (GL, dats, amrun, AFF, dw, icon, alim) if right
And 1 scum in (tex, ddl, SS)
I think I’d rather hunt off wagon bc of that, as it makes for a 33% chance of hitting scum assuming 2 on 1 off is right
I think the resistance on the creature wagon now that he’s flipped town implies that scum were not all on. I think that would only make sense if scum were on early and pushing it, but we know sally is town
So prob 2 on 1 off, possibly 2 off 1 on given the level of resistance which would mean a 66% chance of hitting scum lynching off wagon
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:48 am
by Menalque
Tex needs to post more content tbh
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:50 am
by Menalque
Like there isn’t enough there for me to have a solid read yet
I have some paranoia around SS mostly bc I felt like he was resisting everything I was trying to do D1 and I think normally we’ve worked quite cooperatively together? But still think he’s prob town
So that just leaves ddl but again, idk if scum!him leaves me alive after my D1 push
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:52 am
by Menalque
In post 1406, Datisi wrote:Hmm, I was waiting for you to ask that. Not much.
That is statistically the most likely possibility (probably, haven't done the math).
I doubt it's any more likely than statistics say it is.
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:53 am
by Something_Smart
In post 1471, Menalque wrote:I have some paranoia around SS mostly bc I felt like he was resisting everything I was trying to do D1 and I think normally we’ve worked quite cooperatively together? But still think he’s prob town
