In post 682, Hoopla wrote:i swear, if we twiddle our thumbs until 24 hours before deadline, get a claim we don't want to lynch, then panic-lynch some random townie, i will be very annoyed!
how do i do it? psychic powers? a witch? i'll leave this up to the reader's judgement.
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:42 pm
by notscience
It was incredibly obvious that was what was gonna happen
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:45 pm
by Hoopla
so, i've been working on an analysis post for a while. am just going to dump it here instead of reevaluate now that the game has changed with agar/klick info. here it is:
~~
i know everyone is jonesing for someone to do the deep dive and take on that glut of a D1 we produced. allow this inquisitive townie to take the first steps.
- we only got one flip, but we have a prob-innocent to work with in una. he can only be scum with flippy OR if the traitor conspiracy is true. both unlikely.
- flippy isn't cleared, as his role can still be scum-aligned, but he is prob-innocent. not to the same level as una, obviously.
- another read, this time a behavioural read, is cooldog-town. i don't think he has the acting chops to feign such a temper-tantrum over optimal play as scum. it seems much likelier he is spazzy-town.
- prana is prob-scum
these are the alignments i'm most sure about, so i'll be conducting my analysis from this base. i have other reads too, but don't want to include too many assumptions.
~~
this was a key inflection point midway through day 1;
as you can see, the key wagons we had eked out were all town or prob-town. if you remember, this was about the point of the game i was calling out active lurkers and vote-parkers to do something. an observation i've made about day 1's is that when scum can get away with it, they love letting townies be the one's to risk pushing the game forward with meaningful votes. to make a new vote is to have essentially reevaluated the game in a new light, which can sometimes derail a wagon on town, or bring attention to yourself. if scum have a safe vote placed - one that can't really be challenged - there is less incentive to reevaluate, as such, you'll often see them sit on it a long time if the gamestate isn't threatening. you can see here, these are optimal conditions for safe scum-vote-parking as all the major wagons we produced were town/likely town.
scum simply don't like getting their hands dirty when they don't need to. if anyone was curious, the numbers from my patented
"H.A.H.A system of Advanced Tells for Very Advanced Players"
bears this out too:
if votes were purely random, we'd expect to observe 1.75 scum on a D1 town-lynch. what i have actually observed: of the last 30 D1-lynches on a townie, only 44 of the 210 voters have been scum, a rate of 1.46 scum per lynch wagon. when you factor this in with the lurking data i revealed on D1, it becomes clear that we should expect scum to post less, and do less things that push the game forward when they don't need to.
i'm not revealing this data to
explicitly
say scum are definitely the lurkers/safe voters, but to illuminate that this is a pattern that reveals itself across a number of different metrics. scum simply don't take as many risks to further the game when they don't have to. it's much easier to sit back, let townies bicker and incriminate themselves ESPECIALLY when the gamestate allows it (ie; no threatening scum wagons). on a related note; i suspect most of the noise from late D1 was town mania, and scum sitting back chuckling to themselves, watching town implode. little did they know, wily ol' hoopla was taking names and collecting reads.
~~
i've talked plenty about prana, so in the interest of looking for other scum, lets move ahead later in the day.
turkey's wagon was the first to come under any real heat. his wagon and una's was the main dichotomy.
a key suspect i've developed in my reread of this sequence of events is battle mage. he was an active presence the game when he arrived, but happily sat on his initial gypyx vote without much comment on the main wagons - wagons he knew to be town. he even sat on this vote through the rise and fall of flippy's L-2 wagon and una's L-1 wagon. he lurked through the flippy claiming fiasco. he did nothing to further the game during crucial periods - i suspect happy to just sit back and let the town mislynch any one of their main three incorrect lynches.
the only time he participated in a wagon not gypyx-related was when a speed-wagon grew on prana unexpectedly late in the game. he was the L-1 vote - a key bussing vote. a
"oh shit, i better get on this wagon before its too late
" vote. and given the espeonage slot fit the D1 lurky profile i associate with early scumplay, i think this slot is an excellent candidate for scum. doubley so because he works well as a potential prana-buddy.
the next best possible bussing vote in a prana-scum world is;
In post 969, bob3141 wrote:prana interesting that you would pick that out. Only after two other playesr but ignor my posts for you entirely
VOTE: Prana
at the time, this was a vanity-vote when we had two big town wagons available. a time where scum would expect one of those two mislynches to go through. unexpectedly a major wagon blossumed out of this vote, but this is exactly the sort of play i mean when i say "scum don't like getting their hands dirty on town mislynches when they can help it".
conclusion:
bob or battle mage for scum
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:47 pm
by notscience
I’ve been saying battlemage prana since yesterday klick catch up
Weird gut. I asked about the role PM confirmation because I was getting weird Quagmire vibes from Klick's posting, so I had a bit of suspicion from the posting. I noticed a handful of people townread Klick, so I decided that was most likely who was going to carry out a kill if on a scumteam.
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:48 pm
by Hoopla
klick/prana/battle mage
could the game really be this easy?
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:50 pm
by AGar
Flippy, please get in here and give your result just for providing innos.
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:51 pm
by Hoopla
In post 1455, AGar wrote:Weird gut. I asked about the role PM confirmation because I was getting weird Quagmire vibes from Klick's posting, so I had a bit of suspicion from the posting. I noticed a handful of people townread Klick, so I decided that was most likely who was going to carry out a kill if on a scumteam.
if this is true, that is a smart way to use a blocker - great intuition!
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:54 pm
by Hoopla
i was wondering who the cheeky scumbag that had snuck its way into my town reads would be.
i thought it would take a bit longer to work out, though.
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:58 pm
by notscience
In post 1457, AGar wrote:Flippy, please get in here and give your result just for providing innos.
Unas clear already done
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:01 pm
by Emperor flippyNips
In post 1457, AGar wrote:Flippy, please get in here and give your result just for providing innos.
i've already said what my result are. i sent a fruit to una and he's unarmed
