FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Assassin]

Eh, whatever, here: I tried to do something, it did not work, and I don't know why, although I have a guess.

What a shame.

[Servant Shielder]

does this thing have to do with you thinking archer is town?

[Servant Caster]

no

[Servant Assassin]

Ok, from the gist of the last two pages, we're picking between Archer and shielder. Who is defending which slot? How close are we to deadline? Why is each a topic of discussion?

Both Archer and Shielder emerged as popular scumreads during the master selection phase. Berserker has defended Shielder, basically no one has defended Archer, not even Archer. Avenger claimed he has a role ability which activates when he correctly predicts the elimination for a day within the first 48 hours, so there was some haste in deciding our first target. Shielder begged for their life and to be given a chance to contribute, and so I relented and decided on Archer for the first elimination today. I'll link you to my explanation at the bottom of this post.

We have a little more than 8 days until deadline. However, today is a double elimination day, and the deadline is shared between eliminations as per 1153. We also have a page count cap for the phase and are currently sitting at approximately 13 of our 60 available pages. I expect the second half of today to be a bit more contentious, and we'll have a flip to analyze, so that is where I expect to spend the majority of the alotted space/time for this day phase. Unfortunately, this might leave you with very little time to catch up on the thread. I encourage you to try to read up, and be sure to make liberal use of your notes PT while doing so, as the names/avatars will probably be difficult to keep track of for a while until you're acclimated. Still, I imagine it's going to be a lot to take in, so I will provide you with a few links to what I believe are the most relevant portions of the thread thus far. Also feel free to speak to people live and in the moment, don't let not being caught up keep you from posting.

As a summary of why Archer and Shielder are currently suspected, a lot of people went after Archer early, I think in part because they made a lot of posts that seemed to be lacking in terms of meaningful game content. That was my reason, at least. Shielder's original player only made a few posts and seemed to be overwhelmed and possibly inexperienced. Their replacement has posted infrequently, and when they do post it is mostly to make reads that seem strange and nonsensical. I think that is why, anyway - someone else could probably explain them to you better.

1376 contains the start of my case on Archer. It omits some of the things that originally tipped me off to them but it's a whole heap of issues I have with their slot.
Archer's ISO
Shielder's ISO
Both of these are fairly short, it shouldn't take you too long to read these players and at least get a grasp of why they are being suspected.
Starting from Page 33 and going to Page 46 gives you perhaps the most intriguing portion of Day 0. This is a little over a day's worth of posting in real-time, and a fascinating little shuffle of votes occurred in the leadup to the deadline. I don't know how it will read without context to anything prior, but I do believe the reactions of several players here are highly alignment indicative.
Finally, because I cannot resist just a bit of self-promotion, 1364 contains the compiled gun to head reads of every player, which I asked for in the aftermath of me being confirmed as town.

[Servant Avenger]

@Archer, yup. You're the target.
On the bright side, you have a long day ahead of you. Eat some icecream.

[Servant Beast]

Either Archer gave up completely and is just refusing to give us info to scum hunt their buddies with or they are prepping a super mega quote striping wall post the size of which Donald Trump would be envious.

[Servant Avenger]

no

Would it be in poor taste to make to make an old man ED joke.

[Servant Archer]

Either Archer gave up completely and is just refusing to give us info to scum hunt their buddies with or they are prepping a super mega quote striping wall post the size of which Donald Trump would be envious.

Maybe I should do this...

[Servant Caster]

Between a compelling case and them just not caring at all about their impending demise I'm ready to move on this whenever the rest of us are.

VOTE: Archer

[Servant Caster]

Gotta get that primo early wagon slot for maximum bus potential.

[Servant Caster]

@other scumbuddies you should pile on right now to confuse the vca people

[Servant Avenger]

Either Archer gave up completely and is just refusing to give us info to scum hunt their buddies with or they are prepping a super mega quote striping wall post the size of which Donald Trump would be envious.

Maybe I should do this...

At least give us a gif.

[Servant Foreigner]

@other scumbuddies you should pile on right now to confuse the vca people

Ty for posting this in both the thread and the scum PT, I wasn't logged on this account.

VOTE: Archer

[Servant Foreigner]

@other scumbuddies you should pile on right now to confuse the vca people

Ty for posting this in both the thread and the scum PT, I wasn't logged on this account.

VOTE: Archer

[Servant Foreigner]

I am not upset that post in particular was the one that decided to double up.

[Servant Avenger]

Would you like to share anything with us Archer? That would help us out if you're town?

[Servant Archer]

Yeah I'll try to write some stuff up. Who should I try to get a read on?

[Servant Avenger]

Here, I found gif you could use Archer.

@Archer, um. Anyone really. I like unique perspectives on things.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Caster, you are supposed to keep identity guesses inside your notes PT. For the record, I am not the worst.

[Servant Caster]

[Servant Assassin]

Caster, you are supposed to keep identity guesses inside your notes PT. For the record, I am not the worst.

Lol

[Servant Archer]

Spoiler:

I felt so many varying emotions after reading this.
I actually went through so many I was thinking of my "this actually isn't that bad cause we can analyze the wagon now" speech for when people called me bad.

This is a post that everyone should townread. I think the emotional reaction to Assassin is fakeable, but in most cases, you just leave it at that and don't talk about the case where he is scum as scum.

I had a goddamn heart attack.

On the other hand, this just includes the emotional reaction, so we can't really make a read based off of it.

I suppose now I can cease roleplaying and actually get to playing the game with you all properly. I'll be reviewing my notes first, though. I might play a little close to the vest with my reads during this day phase.

Nice.

I think I'm going to need a day to compose myself.

This seems a little exaggerated, so it makes me a little less happy about Alter Ego. Maybe the feeling was happiness, but that doesn't require a day to get composed.

VOTE: Shielder

This honestly seems a little anti associative with Shielder. If they were scum together, Shielder probably discussed how he was going to put in work D2 and Foreigner likely would choose not to bus him as a result.

We also as a group we need to decide how long we need to eliminate for the first time, since the deadline is shared I think we should do it in 6 days, I think the second elimination should take less time.

I like this thinking because town as more incentive to keep things organized and scum would seek to be opportunistic on time fails. Not the greatest though.

One of my abilities, is that if I correctly tell Cabd who is going to die during a day phase within the first 48 hours (I asked, either elimination will count this day phase) I get an unspecified bonus.

This better be worth it.

If you're right, then where do you think defenses have been mounted?

What do you mean by defenses?
I am a little confused why people seem to think Shielder and I were scum. I can't really comment on what the situation is like if we are both scum, but if we are both town, then scum would probably be feeling good about themselves entering D1. That makes me think the quick changing wagons were more town driven unless scum are master planners and already chose and pocketed their candidate.

Lancer's attitude switch was interesting, though it felt genuine somehow.

What attitude switch? I just realized I have no read on Lancer.

My sudden realization was that Avenger's overenthusiasm for getting voted Master made sense as a townie effort to scare mafia into thinking he had a particularly useful upgrade (on top of already being threateningly loud). My hope was that he would actually get it and flip town and we'd have the opportunity to go back and look at who townread Avenger but found excuses to not vote for him, as I imagine that would be a prime mafia approach to handling him. This possibility (combined with the general opportunity to decisively sort him) was worth the risk he might be mafia himself, so I pulled the trigger. Then it ended up not working out anyway.

My eyes sorta glazed over this the first few times, but the motivation behind voting Avenger seems townie. I do agree that mafia would take a backseat to him unless they were strong.

I will probably go back and do this anyway, because it could still be useful info, but its impact is lessened by not having his alignment flipped.

Seems useless if you don't know his alignment. I guess useful for when he flips.

In real time I can't say I'd put 3/4 people as scum in the first group, I only did it knowing I had so many town on the rest of the lists.

oop this is sorta scummy, but also sorta townie. I will go with townie for now.

Fuck it, I'll do it anyways

like you were going to skip it.

Wtf I liked old assassin ;_;

Another scummy/townie post, but I'm going with scummy this time. Could be uncomfortable with Assassin's new attitude.

Honestly I have the same reads even without the gun to my head. Even though you think I am altering my reads out of fear of being shot in this game I am not, those are just my reads.

What does this mean?

I practically flipped a coin in my head between him and beast

Why are you flipping coins to determine your read on someone? Scummy.
skipping over stuff I already commented on...

Shielder v2's posts don't look like that either. What makes you think he's scum trying to confuse interactions and then die, as opposed to LHF?

Yeah, I still think he is scum. Some trolly posts tbh.

Beast, at this point I don't see why you don't want to explain your reads now.

Doesn't seem very realistic that you thought she was still going to hold out.

Berserker was wrong about Assassin, they're wrong about me and they're probably wrong about Shielder. In case I am not here to say it later, if they continue to be wrong, you must eliminate them no matter how town they appear to be. That is all I will say on that subject.

Is this a BOP? I think I disagree.

Why do you townread me?
@Archer

I just had you as town in GTH. I don't really townread you atm.

You are not picking up what I'm putting down and that's okay.

Why is it ok? Doesn't seem like an agree to disagree moment.

I'd like you to explain later then. About Berserker.

oh maybe this is town.

that entrance never comes from scum. it is too attention-grabby and bold to make sense as a scum play.

Lazy read.

i like playing the role of the contrarian.

One of these people huh. Not sure what it means in this situation though.

It seems at least a little more likely that Archer would be arguing (my impression: without much depth) for town Assassin, knowing the read was correct than risk getting into a match with Berserker over a read that could be wrong.

I don't get this. I also don't tend to explain my reads much, but just act upon them.

i feel no need to be consistent or coherent or non-contradictory at this early stage. I'm gonna call things as I see them post by post

I can see how they were doing this. What Berserker pointed out.

This also describes me to be fair, and I'm town.

This is town if Shielder is town.

So I'll preface all of this by saying I wasn't really town leaning Assassin until his reaction gambit on Archer.

That wasn't townie really. Maybe we think different.

I'm thinking the pivot to assassin might just be a play to avoid making an enemy of assassin who would be easier to appease for two days and then get rid of than have him as a likely non lynchable variable.

Avenger seemed easier to pocket than Assassin tbh. It seemed like you give him a vote and you gain some favor.

Avenger comes out looking really townie by virtue of his static wagon I believe.

Can you explain this? I'm not even sure how static the wagon was.

I think his vote which seemed to shift the momentum a bit, could be motivated by a desire to give master to the person who didn't want it because they read that as the person with a weaker power.

But Assassin wanted the vote.

Are you the designated miselimination Archer?
Why aren't you mafia this game? if you don't mind me asking.

Yeah probably. Because I am solving.

Compare that to how quickly votes jumped out on Shielder.

This is interesting.

It has the distinct look of someone trying their hardest to avoid attention.

No

possibly spoiled just so most people wouldn't bother reading?

no, it is because some people said it made it hard to read the thread or something.

This has all the vibes of quick, eliminate someone, anyone who isn't me! These are the words of someone trying to push along a quick elimination rather than someone trying to actually find mafia.

I didn't even advocate for a quick elimination. I also just thought he was scum at that point.

As mentioned, a significant portion of their early posting was lengthy quote stripes that gave the appearance of content without actually saying much at all

I only did this three times, and it is a good way to collect my thoughts. I think I said stuff too.
I mean about my hedges that is just how I think. A good chunk of content is NAI, but it's still good to write about it.

Do you, when you are being scumread by someone you townread, not try to convince them otherwise?

I don't really care when people scumread me as long as it doesn't lead to my elim. I misjudged here, but maybe I live.

They just seemed overly casual in a way that doesn't look like someone who is really concerned with the outcome of the phase.

I switched my vote to Avenger though, and you wanting the vote didn't really change my read. Don't see the problem tbh.

If you are town, Archer, I am terribly sorry for you being put in this unfair situation and will have to spend a lot more time putting consideration into my next elimination.

It's fine. Good luck

Do these read like the words of someone whose scum read was potentially about to win the master vote?

Oh I don't think I was that aware, or I thought he wasn't gonna win. That is quite concerning in hindsight though.

Archer isn't one of them.

well I'm town...

I have it.

Weird that you choose that to reply to considering everything around you.
Avenger pressing Moon Cancer for reads is townie, and probably pushes him to town in my book.

Spoiler: reads

Town
Foreigner - Do not hang this guy. Play regarding role D0 was townie and entrance to D1 was townie.
Alter Ego - looks like she is solving
Saber- seemed to be solving in original posts, and replacement looks good so far too
Moon Cancer - had problems with initial play, but pressing against several loud players is townie and they seem to be solving
Avenger - Liked him pressing Moon Cancer. Found it a bit weird that he didn't seem to be mad at losing the vote, but still pretty decent overall
Ruler - has stepped it up recently
Rider - good energy around him
Beast - make her do more
Lancer - no read tbh
Shielder - what Berserker said made sense, but I don't see who else is scum. Make him do more too
Caster - wagon was composed of scumreads, and scummy play too

As you can see my explanations for my reads aren't very good. The order is more important though.
VOTE: Archer
GLHF

[Servant Caster]

oof, the counterbus

you wound me, ser

[Servant Avenger]

UNVOTE:

[Servant Caster]

i'm really not sure what to make of the response being more quote striping