The wildest part about all this is that cyrus was telling the truth about his role AND the CC would have caught Cakez' lie. I'm trying to figure out why mafia would know that Cakez' claim is a fake considering 3 people rolled Parity Cop.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:10 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
It's technically possible that we have a 3p bus driver, if Cakez rolled Cult and lied about it because he received cult, and MegA rolled Cult, one would get rerolled on alignment die as 3p
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:10 am
by Dragon of the West
In post 1444, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:safe to assume Thor was recruited or voyeured, unless he's in a hood with James' second target
This Cyrus wagon is looking pristine aside from Cakez tbh
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:27 am
by Marashu
Scary thought, though. Cakez culted someone else, then voyeured the PGO.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:28 am
by Dwlee99
In post 1455, Marashu wrote:Scary thought, though. Cakez culted someone else, then voyeured the PGO.
But why
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:28 am
by Dwlee99
If I was CL I would never target Thor there but idk if I can extrapolate that to Cakez play.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:29 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
Also with T3 flipping odd-night roleblocker my TR on RMH goes out the window. I thought his gambit was specifically coming from a town odd-night roleblocker role
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:30 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
My guess is Cakez voyeured in a way that I was advising voyeur to act so he could fakeclaim as a town voyeur with real results later
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:30 am
by Marashu
Yeah, I don't know. Just trying to think of worst-case scenarios.
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:30 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
So he would have been watching someone that the collective would believe
could
have been culted
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:31 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
But yeah that is bad news if cakez recruit action resolves on nights that he dies
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:48 am
by Dragon of the West
In post 1450, Marashu wrote:The wildest part about all this is that cyrus was telling the truth about his role AND the CC would have caught Cakez' lie. I'm trying to figure out why mafia would know that Cakez' claim is a fake considering 3 people rolled Parity Cop.
I don't think this is true because there were 3 claimed parity cop rolls so Cyrus' role was just a modified version of Kyo's mafia parity cop and there could still be 2 other parity cops in game
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:48 am
by Dragon of the West
Cakez claim could've still been a modified version of the even night PC
In post 1444, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:safe to assume Thor was recruited or voyeured, unless he's in a hood with James' second target
I dislike this assumption
Where do you think 3 kills comes from if not from the PGO?
Meh, you're probably right. I just feel surprised someone would target Thor after his claim. I guess the only other option would be a vig of some sort but I think that's unlikely
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:52 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
So no mafia died in the night. Thor's rollclaim is confirmed true by T3 flip, meaning he is likely town. Cyrus doesn't typically lie, I believe he really did roll PGO and was maybe fishing for PGO. This together all but confirms that Thor is a PGO and is not teamed with Cyrus. Probably he is just town.
No dead mafia means they did not try to kill Thor, which means they tried to kill someone else. One kill comes from Mafia. I think it's safe to say that as CL you wouldnt touch Thor with a 10 foot pole, so cakez was probably killed intentionally last Night. Probably by Mafia because they thought Cakez would be treated as conftown, but maybe they somehow knew that there is no town Parity Cop. I'll get to that soon.
Maybe T3 thought that he could roleblock Thor. I dont think this is likely though and find it far more likely that Thor and someone else were neighborized. Probably someone James trusted would be able to investigate Thor properly in case James died from targeting him. Maybe he also thought that as town, Thor would like a hood because it would give him someone to plan with, and Thor was saying often that he wanted to be recruited this game.
Dragon are you in a hood with Thor?
I think James was PGOed, but I think T3 and Cakez were both killed outright. I think seeing Cakez flip cult but not a hus driver means either Gamma lied about cult roll or the bus driver alignment was rerolled as 3p because a cult already existed. I think we have a serial killer.
As for "getting to the cc later":
Cyrus had my roll. He knew it was real. The only way he could know without a doubt that the town PC claim was fake is if he knew the Town PC rolls were fake or fudged. If fudged, it means he knew that because other town PC roles were fudged into Mafia PC roles. If faked, it means he is teamed with dwlee or marashu and knows one or both of them lied about their roll.
I think he gambled. I dont think he knew cakez claim was fake, because that would mean the other PC rolls were made mafia in addition to the existing Mafia PC. Maybe Cook balanced it this way. Maybe a Mafia Rampaging Parity Cop has a rampaging factional kill that killed all 3 players? I think T3 would roleblock cakez, and if James tried to neighborize cakez as well, then that explains all 3 kills in a reasonable way as well.
Is 9:3:1 with a rampaging mafia factional kill balanced in role madness though? I feel like maybe not. I think we just have a serial killer, possibly a vigilante
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:54 am
by Dragon of the West
In post 1466, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Cyrus doesn't typically lie, I believe he really did roll PGO and was maybe fishing for PGO. This together all but confirms that Thor is a PGO and is not teamed with Cyrus.
I am absolutely 1000% confident which role you are.
I think this confirms james would not have targeted Thor actually. Maybe Cyrus flipping scum changed his mind though because Cyrus rolled PGO
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:00 am
by Dragon of the West
In post 1466, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Mafia Rampaging Parity Cop has a rampaging factional kill that killed all 3 players
I find this incredibly unlikely. That would be 2 of the 5 roll fudges on mafia parity cops. I think modifying the mafia PC with doubled was giving mafia substantial power against 3P, no reason to have another PC switch alignments
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:03 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
I feel like Mafia Rampaging PC actually makes the most sense. Especially if anyone is alone in James' hood right now. That would mean 2 of those 3 dead players targeted the third player, and the third player got factional killed by a rampaging mafia PC.
Pedit: that's reasonable actually, a mafia doubled PC would be able to find 3P easily because it knows its targets are not mafia
huh
I don't think there'd be 2 cult leaders so either my roll was fudged into voyeur or my role was fudged into not-cult and the voyeur was fudged into being CL
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:06 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
Based on how the doubled parity cop worked though according to the flip, maybe the rampaging PC would have a similar effect. Compare the reflexive targets (from rampaging) to the original target, in addition to comparing the original target to the previous night's original target?
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:07 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
Oh yeah I forgot MegA roll was 2-modifier, so it's possible there is still a town multitasking voyeur I suppose, if the 20 on MegAs roll happened to work out to be multitasking