Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[House]

i wish i wasn't town but alas

Idk, you're feeling like resigned scum to me.

[Morning Tweet]

>﹏<

[Something_Smart]

Idk, you're feeling like resigned scum to me.

How so?

[House]

Idk, you're feeling like resigned scum to me.

How so?

I'm not seeing any attempt to shake the wagon.

Just impotent, "sorry, I'm town" statements that do nothing to actually convince me that he is, in fact, town.

[Morning Tweet]

That's fair but you haven't exactly given off the feeling you're about to budge on imagine

[Morning Tweet]

This game is going to enter an entirely new stage of hell if worstie is town

[House]

That's fair but you haven't exactly given off the feeling you're about to budge on imagine

Why would I?

I haven't been given a reason.

It's like ducky knows the lim is correct.

[Morning Tweet]

i dont really feel like reviewing again but in my current interpretation i disagree

just not strongly enough to care that much

[Morning Tweet]

ill miss u either way worsty

I might pass out before voting so idk might in a min

[Morning Tweet]

VOTE: worsty

(ﾉ︵･､)

<3

[Bingle]

VOTE: worsty

(ﾉ︵･､)

<3

FWIW, I am town. I also feel like duck's posting in my absence is openwolfing so hopefully your paranoia is solved here in a minute.

[Bingle]

@Bingle @the worst are you on board with limming SS today? Pretend you can't hear what the other one is saying, like prisoners' dilemma.

Spoiler: NO BINGLE

yeah i am

Same.

ngl, I feel really disappointing because I just haven't had the spare time to give this game the last few days any y'all deserve better, but I'm like borderline on declaring V/LA.

I feel like worst is probably just the answer but I need to reread if I'm going to try to strongarm that and I don't know that I have the chance, so MT you're probably getting sheeped. Sorry.

I also likely won't be voting fast night unless something changes drastically.

Spoiler: duck thoughts, only click if you're ready for your mind to be corrupted by evil pond water

town's only real vector to loss atm is if we hit 8 balls back to back, or if the scumteam is something goofy like 2 of {me, Bingle, imagi, house} or it's like, Bingle + {ss, hoise} (associatives suck but Bingle's push on me is independently towny. I think him freezing now we're coming down to the wire is probably not a good sign.

All in all I think you're overthinking it though. Given how d1 finished, and how passively today shook out til I flipped the table, tw/bingle was meant to be the main event. The scummier slots in the game (imagi/ss) are weakly positing that eliminating in them is a bad idea because of 8-ball equity, but aren't really committing to solving the balance of slots for non-8b scum. I think that's a reasonably strong indicator the solve is just imagi/ss. My wild card rn is actually imagi/Bingle but I think we lose that game most of the time.

I know scum took the hardmode elim on d2, but also remember that was a very significant 1v1 between wisdom + imagi which invented on d1. It was a challenging elimination, but it wasn't an impossible elimination and there was some level of anticipation for a significant swing back against Wisdom. I think Ali would have been too obvious an 8-ball choice for d2 in hindsight, but hindsight is 20/20, etc.

I don't think it's you and I don't think it's House. I don't reeeeally think it's Bingle. SS and imagi fit for what I'd expect scum to be doing here (working different reads and different pockets while hoping y'all independently fall on the wrong side of the fence but preparing for the worst). I think we just yeet imagi today - 8-ball equity isn't all that high but scum equity is v high.

Imagi is postin real cute here because he knows he has a high risk of going down and his partner has a decent way to go, I think. Behaviourally I'd be pretty surprised if that's coming from non-8b scum (but I'm fallible ane like to be surprised)

pedit: I was starting to suspect it, but still, my heart soars.

nearly high noon y'all

good is the MT + Bingle show rn (which means it's the MT show because Bingle has apparently fuckin disappeared), I can offer opinions but I'm wary that I'm not really trusted here.

Bingle has apparently fuckin disappeared

Sorry, just got dropped on me that some project specs are way different than I thought they were and I’m scrambling to catch up. I’m around enough to read the thread during breaks but all of my cognitive power is elsewhere, probably for the rest of the week. Not a big fan of the “Bingle is prioritizing RL.” Shade though

it's not shade

real life gotta real life
you're just like, literally not here rn while we're making a significant decision
wouldn't imply for a moment that you should be prioritising this over real life, it's just... a thing...

we need every townie to agree, so like. if i'm run up today then i'm run up, so be it. don't hammer test multiple people, please. that just dramatically increases the probability of wagoning the 8-ball and getting quickhammered into the L.

I'm just thinking about why I cannot seem to figure out SS/imagine/worst, at all. We're probably not going to instantly lose voting worst, but Bingle/imagine will win if we ever eliminate SS, which is a huge pain.

after hard townreadin bingle for a bit i'm swingin back to bingle/imagi as well
imagi still a better lim. ss is not a good lim. i may not be 8ball cleared.

This series of posts is what I'm talking about. Worst never outright comes out and says he's scumreading my absence, but his townread on me is like: "Bingle is hardefforting and showing his townyness" but the moment I wasn't around to actually put in the effort he started putting feelers out on whether he could get an elimination on me again. It just reads super opportunistic that his reevaluation of me came exactly after I revealed that I wouldn't be able to effort, likely until the end of the day.

And yes, I'm aware that worsty is hammered and my input is a dollar short and a day late. One way or another I'll have free time again if the thread reopens though!

[Save The Dragons]

Vote Count 3.11

4 the worst (Bingle, House, imaginality, Morning Tweet)
1 imaginality (the worst)

Not voting: Something_Smart

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to yeet

Flip incoming...

[Save The Dragons]

The worst has been yeeted from the game!

He was a

Spoiler:

Vanilla Townie

[/spoiler]

What ball was he?

Spoiler:

Wolves do not get a kill.

Deadline for N3 is (expired on 2021-10-09 11:51:03)

If everyone requests, we can have a fast night.

[Save The Dragons]

D4 begins now! With 5 alive, it takes 3 to yeet

D4 ends at (expired on 2021-10-16 13:26:20)

Something_Smart is V/LA until monday

[Bingle]

I mean yeah, one way or the other.

Although if it is, say, imagine/ss they won't quickhammer if worstie isn't 8-ball.

I don't really mind

It's not imaginality.

House, can you talk to me about this read?

[Morning Tweet]

ducky i'm sorrryyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

I ran out of steam to try and convince and i wasnt sure enough

[Morning Tweet]

Everyone should be aware of this but if town votes for town, it's game over due to it being Xylo even if that player isn't 8-ball

[House]

I mean yeah, one way or the other.

Although if it is, say, imagine/ss they won't quickhammer if worstie isn't 8-ball.

I don't really mind

It's not imaginality.

House, can you talk to me about this read?

Not really.

I was invested in my theory.

[Bingle]

Everyone should be aware of this but if town votes for town, it's game over due to it being Xylo even if that player isn't 8-ball

The extension of this is that the 8 ball is almost certainly on scum, but we should be playing this as a regular 5p XLO regardless.

[Bingle]

I was invested in my theory.

Was the theory pairing specific or two independent reads?

[House]

I was invested in my theory.

Was the theory pairing specific or two independent reads?

I was extremely vocal about it.

VOTE: Bingle

You're not trying to solve in the first place, or you'd have known that.

[Bingle]

Coming into the day, I feel pretty confident in MT town, which means I need to find the town in SS/imagine/House. I'm not going to completely write off MT scum, but MT derailing my lim yesterday when she could have gotten it pretty easily is still a compelling ass reason for her to just be town. That leaves 3 teams to look at:

SS/House
SS/Imagine
House/Imagine

MT, do you think any of those are just never possible pairs?

[Bingle]

I was functionally V/LA for the end of the day, please unvote.

[Bingle]

This is XLO, if you're town not unvoting means we lose.